ASUsP_PL-47

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💡 The results of the 20-Year Bond Auction are in - it wrapped up at 4.883%, up from the previous 4.817%.

📈 We're pressing against that "psychological" level of 5%, which has only been hit twice recently.

🎯 For some interest, I checked out the inflation data from PCE regarding truflation - the upward trend seems to have stalled for now. The official PCE will drop next Thursday - let's keep an eye on that.

🎈The bubble is really reaching epic proportions. As they say, where euphoria begins, logic dies.

✅ Shiller PE = 40.44. This is not just "expensive" - investors are paying $40 for $1 of profit. This is no longer an investment - it's a belief in miracles (or a bet on the "greater fool theory").

✅ Buffett Indicator = 226%. When the indicator is above 100% - the market is overvalued. 226% - this is territory where the real economy and the stock market live in parallel universes.

💡 And it is not a fact that this is the limit. This is a classic casino, where bets are made on emotions and greed, not investment principles. For many investors, "this time it's different."

🎯 However, as the legendary Bernard Baruch said: "I made my fortune because I always got out too early."

❗️ In no way am I convincing anyone of anything - everyone has their own strategy and vision of the situation.
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#StrategyBTCPurchase

🔥April 29, 2026, could be quite a tense day - two important events overlap + one medium (though, it may also be important).

1️⃣ Monetary event. There will be a Federal Reserve meeting on the rate, where Jerome Powell will preside for the last time. And if Trump still does not resolve the issue of the war in Iran, a rate hike may be a real scenario.

2️⃣ Geopolitical event. The 60-day period ends when the president can wage war without Congress's permission. While Trump has congressional support, this is a war + elections are coming - many things can change here. Moreover, it seems that Iran is deliberately delaying until this time arrives.

3️⃣ Corporate event. 4 companies from the “Magnificent 7” - MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, and META are reporting. This is over 16% of the entire S&P 500.

🎯 I am not saying in any way that this will be a turning point day - I do not know this, but it could be quite volatile. Those working with options - take this into account.
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🏦 ФРС між Трампом та інфляцією: хто кого переграє?

💡 Поки Трамп (та й ринок загалом) вимагає дешевших грошей, у ФРС вказують протилежне - ставки й так «доречно відкориговані».

✅ Голова ФРБ Канзас-Сіті Джефф Шмід прямо заявив: агресивні знижки ставок можуть знову розпалити інфляцію.
✅ Його колега з Бостона, Сюзан Коллінз, каже те саме - не час «доливати бензину в багаття».

🎯 Але, ринок бачить інакше. Очікування ринку ще два зниження до кінця року, S&P 500 знову тестує історичні максимуми, а «everything bubble» - на повній швидкості.

❗️ Це класичний розрив між очікуванням і реальністю, який рідко закінчується м’яко. Коли ФРС обережна, а ринок поводиться так, ніби ставки вже 0 % - часто саме тоді починаються несподівані розвороти.

📊 Нагадаю: надто “легка” ФРС - це завжди ризик перегріву, який історично закінчується або рецесією, або ринковим очищенням.

☑️ Суть: зараз ФРС - як водій, що тримає ногу на гальмі, поки пасажири (ринок + Трамп) тиснуть на газ. Час покаже, хто був правий)
#BNBmemeszn
#BNBMarketCapThirdLargest
#WhaleWatch
#BNBBreaksATH

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💡 The Fed has almost "zeroed out" the reverse REPO tool - the volume has dropped from a peak of ~$2.6 trillion (2022) to 18 billion.

🔍 What is this?
A reverse REPO is when the Fed "borrows" money from funds and banks overnight, pledging government bonds as collateral, and buys them back the next day. This is a tool to "park" excess liquidity and keep the lower bound of short-term rates.

👉 What does the decline mean:
💰 Excess liquidity has disappeared - money is no longer flowing into the Fed.
📈 Investors are choosing alternatives - short treasury bills are now more profitable (higher rate than REPO)
🏦 QT (quantitative tightening) is in the final phase - the Fed's balance sheet is shrinking, the "buffer" of liquidity has almost burned out.
⚡️ Volatility risk - short-term rates can "spike" under stress (liquidity decline).

💸 In other words, the era of "excess money after COVID" is ending, and the market is likely transitioning to a regime of stricter conditions.

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💡 Вийшли дані по дохідності 20-ти річних облігацій США (U.S. 20-Year Bond Auction).

✅ Дохідність впала до 4,613% (попередні дані 4,876%).

🎯 Дохідність, в принципі, більш-менш непогано знизилася, і уже є четвертий аукціон підряд зниження. Хоча, поки не видно, що глобальний тренд змінився на спадання, але і росту уже точно немає.
#BNBBreaksATH
#SummerOfSolana?

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💡 Just released a series of data from ISM:

📈 ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers (Manufacturing PMI) - the value came out at 48.7, which is below expectations (49.0) and above previous values (48.0). The downward trend is confirmed.

📈 ISM Manufacturing Employment (employment component of the ISM Manufacturing PMI) - data came out at 43.8, which is above previous data of 43.4.

🎯 The data is slightly better than last time, but overall - the data is below 50 (indicating contraction), and moreover, the trend towards contraction is deepening. It will be interesting to look at this in conjunction with the PMI in the services sector (ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI) - this is the current indicator, and it is already on the brink of contraction.
#RedSeptember

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📈 По повторним заявкам по безробіттю (Continuing Jobless Claims) дані показують зростання - 1,972 млн заявок, проти очікувань у 1,960М і попередніх 1,942М

➖ Також, індикатор Leading Economic Index (від Conference Board) - індекс випереджуючих економічних індикаторів, показав дані -0,1%, так само як і очікування.

🎯 Загалом, економіка штатів продовжує знижуватися.
#BNBATH880
#CryptoRally

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📉 Спреди корпоративних облігацій досягли значень мінімуму 2007 року (піку перед світовою фінансовою кризою)

💡 А це означає, що інвестори не бачать ризик дефолтів, вимагаючи мінімальну премію за кредитний ризик.

🎯 Це є один із проявів ейфорії на ринку - сліпота до ризику.
#HotJulyPPI
#ETHTreasuryStrategy
#TradeStories

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💡 Quite extreme data came out on PPI (Producer Price Index) - the growth for the month was +0.9%

🔴 PPI came out at 3.3% (significantly worse than the expected 2.5%, and significantly worse than the previous data of 2.4%).
🔴 RPI excluding Food/Energy/Transport came out at 2.8% (which is worse than the previous data - 2.5%).

🔍 Producer Price Index (PPI) is an index that shows the change in the average prices at which producers sell their goods and services on the domestic market. It reflects inflation "at the producer level" before prices reach consumers.

🎯 A PPI greater than the CPI means that producer prices are rising faster than consumer prices, and producers have not yet passed their higher costs on to end customers. That is, there may also be an increase in inflation. Tariffs are starting to affect the economy.
#FOMCWatch
#ETH突破4700

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💡 Топ 10% американських компаній зараз складають рекордні 76% усієї капіталізації ринку акцій США.

🏆 Це уже перевищило попередній рекорд, встановлений перед Великою депресією у 1930-х роках.

🎯 Для порівняння: на піку дотком-бульбашки у 2000 році частка топ-10% становила близько 73%.

❗️ Ринкова пружина все більше розтягується, ринок усе тонше і тонше, а концентрація більше і більше.
#ETH4500Next?
#Notcoin
#USFedBTCReserve

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💡 On Friday, all attention was on the labor market, but a series of important data was also released from ISM:

📉 ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers (Manufacturing PMI) - the value came out at 48.0, significantly worse than expectations (49.5) and worse than previous values (49.0). The downward trend is confirmed.
📉 ISM Manufacturing Employment (component of the ISM Manufacturing PMI related to employment) - data came out at 43.4, which is significantly worse than the expectation of 46.8 and worse than previous data of 45.0. This is the worst data since the COVID downturn (there was a similar value in August 2024).
🎯 It is evident that the ISM index data is confirmed by the GDP itself. Comments clearly noted that the average GDP value is 1.25% (-0.5% + 3.0%) - this is very low. And the ISM data on employment generally confirms the overall labor market trend - there is an active reduction.
✅ On Tuesday, data on the Non-Manufacturing PMI (ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI) will be released - this is a current indicator, and it will be interesting to see the dynamics.
#WhiteHouseDigitalAssetReport
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💡 The inflation data for the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index) has been released.

✅ The overall PCE figure came in at 2.6% (worse than expectations of 2.5% and worse than previous data of 2.4%, revised from 2.3%).

✅ The Core PCE came in at 2.8% - which is worse than expectations of 2.7% and on par with previous data of 2.8% (revised downward from 2.7%).

✅ Additionally, the truflation indicator - the average value for June was 2.1%, which significantly differs from the official data, although the values were also relatively high.

🎯 The overall inflation trend continues to decline, but is now closer to sideways movement.
#EthereumTurns10
#BNBATH
#ETHReclaims3800

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🔥 The next week will be hot on macro:

🗓 Tuesday:
- JOLTS Job Openings - a leading indicator of the labor market

🗓 Wednesday:
- ADP Nonfarm Employment Change - automated data collection on job growth - an objective calculation of job changes in the private sector
- Federal Reserve interest rate decision - everything is practically decided here, there shouldn't be any rate change. Only interesting is Powell's statement and the press conference

🗓 Thursday:
- PCE Price Index - the favorite indicator of the Federal Reserve for determining inflation.
- Continuing Jobless Claims - the number of people continuing to receive unemployment benefits - here it's interesting whether we will cross the 2 million mark or not

🗓 Friday:
- Labor data release - the most important data of the week. I am particularly interested in whether government jobs will continue to be inflated (the real direction of Trump's policy).
- ISM Manufacturing PMI - a measure of the state of the real economy.

🎯 The week promises to be interesting!
#BNBATH
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#BTCvsETH

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💡 The data on inflation in the USA has been released - Producer Price Index (PPI) and Core PPI

▶️ PPI came in at 2.3% (expectations 2.5%, previous data 2.7% - revised upwards, was 2.6%).
▶️ Core PPI came in at 2.6% (expectations 2.7%, previous data 3.2% - revised upwards, was 3.0%).

✅ Overall, I don't often look at producer inflation, but this time it has significantly decreased, in contrast to consumer inflation. This may mean:

☑️ Producers are not experiencing rising costs in the production chain (tariffs have not led to increases or there are inventories)
☑️ A sign of potential decrease in consumer inflation. PPI sometimes has a leading characteristic, as primary inflation often appears during the production of goods or services.

🔍 PPI (Producer Price Index) – the index of producer prices, which reflects the change in the cost of goods and services at the production level.

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💡 Inflation data has been released in the US - Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Core CPI

▶️ CPI came in at 2.7% (worse than the expected 2.6%, and significantly worse than the previous data of 2.4%).
▶️ Core CPI came in at 2.9% (better than the expected 3.0%, and worse than the previous 2.8%).

▶️ For comparison, truflation (truflation - independent daily inflation estimate) shows a value of 1.82%

✅ The downward trend, overall, has not yet been broken, but the dynamics of the last two months show an increase. But the most surprising thing is the divergence with truflation - the data does not necessarily have to match, but the trend should remain.
#BTCWhaleTracker
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📉 Дивідендна дохідність S&P 500 знаходиться біля своїх історичних мінімумів - на рівні 1,2% (на графіку трішки старіші дані)

💡 Це також, певний елемент перегріву, якщо враховувати у комплексі із показником P/E.

🎯 Але, довготерміново, акції все більше втрачають свою одну із основних функцій - ділитися прибутком із акціонерами.
#BTCWhaleMovement
#DayTradingStrategy

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💡 The decoding of the structure of jobs in Nonfarm Payrolls shows the reality of employment in the USA.

✅ If we remove direct government jobs (73K) and government-funded jobs (58.6K), a more realistic picture emerges. And there are significantly fewer questions about the level of employment and data from ADP Nonfarm Employment (moreover, the decoding proves the real value of this indicator).

🎯 As far as can be seen, the creation of DOGE was a smokescreen, and Trump has no plans to combat the budget deficit (especially against the backdrop of the "great beautiful law").

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💡 So, the most important data of this week has come out, namely - on the labor market

✅ Unemployment Rate (unemployment rate) came out at 4.1%, better than expectations (4.3%) and better than the previous ones (4.1%).

✅ Nonfarm Payrolls (jobs, excluding agriculture) at 147K, which is better than expectations (111K), and better than the previous 144K (which was also revised upwards from 139K)

✅ Government Payrolls (jobs in the public sector) at 73K, which is significantly better than the previous 17K (revised upwards from -1K). It seems that no one is going to control government spending

✅ Manufacturing Payrolls at -7K, worse than expected at -5K. Previous data revised up from -8K to -5K. Manufacturing stagnation continues.

✅ Private Nonfarm Payrolls at 74K, worse than expected at 105K, and worse than previous 137K (revised down from 140K)

✅ Average Hourly Earnings fell to 3.7%, worse than previous data at 3.8% (revised from 3.9%), and worse than expected at 3.9%.

🎯 This time, on average, the data is more or less good (maybe even good), so let's follow it further.
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