Square-Creator-6aaab45bd56741f4692f

​🏛️ FED, FED, FED: The End of the Powell Era?
​Tomorrow marks what could be a truly historic day. Jerome Powell, who has steered the Federal Reserve for eight years, is holding what might be his final meeting as Chair. What should the markets expect from this massive shift? Let’s dive in. 🧵
​📊 The Interest Rate Situation
​The probability of the rate staying within the 3.5–3.75% range is effectively 100%. However, the real fireworks will come from two specific events:
​J-Pow’s Press Conference
​The Senate confirmation of Kevin Warsh as the new Fed Chair.
​1️⃣ Scenario A: Powell’s Final Word
​What does Jerome need to say for crypto to go "To The Moon"? Honestly, a simple "I’m tired, I’m out" would be enough to spark a rally.
​However, don't hold your breath. Given his history with Trump and the looming threat of legal pressure (which ironically protected him from being fired earlier), Powell might go out swinging. With the chaos in Iran and spiking oil prices driving inflation expectations up, he could deliver a "hawkish" parting gift. There is no market consensus here—we’ll have to read between the lines.
​2️⃣ Scenario B: The Warsh Pivot
​Kevin Warsh used to be seen as the ultimate "hawk"—a critic of QE who warned about inflation risks. But we live in a postmodern world where Trump loves to break the status quo. Unexpectedly, Warsh is now sounding like the ultimate "dove" on interest rates.
​The Catch: Never trust a politician promising low rates and tight balance sheet control simultaneously. There is a high risk that once he is confirmed, he reverts to his hawkish roots, especially if oil continues its volatile streak.
​Note: If the Senate stalls the appointment, Powell remains Acting Chair, which means even more volatility.
​3️⃣ Enter "Crypto Kevin" 🚀
​Here is a fun fact: Kevin Warsh would be the first Fed Chair with skin in the game. He reportedly has nearly $100M invested in crypto. While our $350 portfolios might not be quite as large, having a pro-crypto voice at the helm of the world's most powerful central bank is a massive fundamental win.
​
​What’s your move? Are you betting on a "Warsh Rally" or a "Powell Dump"? Let’s discuss below! 👇
​#Fed #JeromePowell #CryptoNews #Inflation