马斯克思的旗帜

At the beginning of the war, the AI's simulation of the impact of this conflict on the market now seems to be formally entering the second phase.

In the meantime, whether it is releasing strategic oil reserves or suspending sanctions on Russian oil, it cannot fundamentally avoid the long-term upward trend in oil prices. Therefore, WTI crude oil prices have once again broken through the 100 mark today.

As risk aversion gradually digests, the market will begin to price for the protraction of the war, and the surge in crude oil prices is bound to trigger inflation. According to past experience, the Federal Reserve needs to raise interest rates to curb inflation; however, the current scale of U.S. debt and interest payments makes this process seem powerless.

Long-term high inflation may trigger stagflation. If interest rates are not raised, imported inflation will inevitably impact global manufacturing and lead to deep recessions due to reduced demand, thus impacting the market. Conversely, if interest rates are raised, tightening liquidity will also trigger market declines.

Therefore, we also see that today the major global capital markets have fallen synchronously. After the U.S. military's large-scale gathering in the Persian Gulf to start ground battles, it is uncertain whether there will be any 'black swan' events.

In the short to medium term, the market is already pricing in recession; in the long run, if the Strait of Hormuz continues to be blocked, the interruption of the 'petrodollar' chain will weaken the willingness of Middle Eastern funds to invest in U.S. dollar assets. Meanwhile, war expenditures will continue to weigh on finances, potentially forcing the Federal Reserve to turn to fiscal monetization (MMT), further damaging the credibility of the dollar.

The speed at which dollar hegemony descends from its pedestal may be faster than we imagine, and for cryptocurrencies, whether gold or BTC, it is actually favorable, as they are essentially a repricing of the dollar's credibility.

SpaceX is about to IPO, as a loyal fan of Musk who is one of the few in the crypto circle to have his ID written, it is natural to congratulate Mr. Ma at this moment, as he is one step closer to becoming the world's first "trillionaire".

With a valuation of 17.5 trillion, once listed, it will leap to become the 6th largest publicly traded company in the US stock market, only behind technology giants like Nvidia, Apple, Google, etc.

However, with such a large scale, it also has a siphoning effect on the liquidity of the US stock market.

Now, due to the Iran conflict, global funds are selling off for safety, and liquidity is already tight; I wonder if it will put pressure on the market at that time.

Moreover, the major investors in American tech stocks have always been the princes of the Middle East. Now that the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, oil cannot be transported out to exchange for US dollars. This break in the cycle is not good news for the US capital market.

Another year 312
This time it's Dubai's real estate that has plummeted.

Regardless of whether in the Web3 circle or the AI circle, everyone is persistently mingling in the circles for one purpose: either to find opportunities to do something big together or to find opportunities to make a big impact together.

I remember last year it was around this time that the AI Agent concept in the crypto world gained some traction, with several coins appearing, like Ai16Z and the like, which within less than a month surged to a market value of several hundred million to over a billion. Soon after, DeepSeek burst onto the scene, and these coins crashed, and then there was nothing more to follow.

This year, OpenClew has once again become a sensation, and AI Agents seem to have finally shown some glimmer of real-world application. However, the market has become as cold as ever due to the harvesting by Trump, and people in the crypto sphere have completely given up on treatment, no longer riding the wave to issue coins but have all jumped into the AI sector, plunging into the embrace of Vibe Coding.

Of course, they also brought over the Web3 style, rushing to form groups and hold conferences everywhere before even doing anything substantial, feeling that if they don’t join soon, they’ll be left behind by the times. Certainly, compared to hyping various revenue-less air projects, this is some progress, as the Tokens consumed are real cash.

However, the outcome is likely to be similar to the previous Web3 experience, where after the hype, it all turns to chaos. The so-called 'wave that changes the world' turns out to be rather useless, ultimately contributing funds to various exchanges and large model vendors, while also supporting a group of people reselling mining machines/Mac Minis.

Of course, to say there is absolutely no value would not be objective. Besides appearing to grasp the pulse of the times and packaging online personas for traffic monetization, there’s also the chance to connect with a few like-minded individuals from Web3 who are re-entering the job market, mutually encouraging each other to alleviate anxiety. Who knows, there might be an opportunity in the future to pull off a big move (cannon).

When working on Libra, Zuckerberg was dragged to Congress and received a scolding, which made him realize his limitations; stablecoins are not something that a Silicon Valley newcomer like him can handle.

Thus, he renamed the company Meta and transformed into the metaverse, burning hundreds of billions without achieving anything.

Seeing AI gaining traction, he went all in on large models; LLaMa was decent at first, being a leader in the open-source camp, but as major companies deeply entered the fray, it gradually fell behind in fierce competition.

Zuckerberg, in a panic, started acquiring companies and changing leadership, with a typical example being the $2 billion acquisition of Manus at the end of last year.

I wonder how this latest foray into the crypto industry and the development of stablecoin payments will turn out; it feels like every time he starts early, he ends up late, reminiscent of a bit of the “Silicon Valley Baidu” vibe.

AI Circle: Also known as A Circle
Crypto Circle: Also known as B Circle

Any industry that becomes a 'circle' will eventually attract a large number of fraudsters, making the industry chaotic. I wonder when AI will start talking about the 'Shandong Learning' of human sentiment and social etiquette 🤣🤣

AI is currently a hotspot and its implementation speed has become a gathering place for a large number of laid-off middle-class workers from Web2, somewhat similar to Web3 back in the day. I estimate that over 90% of these people who talk about AI every day have no idea who Geoffrey Hinton is. Of course, there are also many cryptocurrency traders who don't know who Satoshi Nakamoto is, but that doesn't stop everyone from losing money. However, I have never liked following the crowd; I'd rather stay in Web3 and continue to muddle through.

It feels like the AI industry is truly changing rapidly
Every day there are exciting new things coming out

In contrast, Web3 seems to be collectively abandoned by the tech community
Completely forgotten in the dust of history

However, thinking about it from another angle
If the industry hadn't been unable to take off for so long
And had been subjected to various sovereign states' attacks

Then when large companies like BAT enter the field
And start a hundred billion subsidy model
What does it have to do with ordinary people like us?

By the way, the socialites and young models will not be replaced in the short term.

No matter how advanced AI technology becomes, the sources of human spirit represented by dreams, beliefs, and courage will never be replaced. I will patiently hold on to these assets.

Web3 has been completely ruined by this group of big players. Now the story can't go on, as they can't cut the leeks. That's why, just after the New Year, they want to bring various celebrities and young models into what is called Web4.0, OpenClaw🦞, AI Agent. If you ask about it, you really don't know what they've managed to create. Anyway, they are always chasing the next big trend, and of course, in the end, it's us leeks who will foot the bill.

This is the counterfeit season (festival) of precious metals

Maduro one-for-one
Whose America is America?
Whose East Asia is East Asia?

Before, there were always petty bourgeois Bitcoin enthusiasts saying that the private key is in their own hands, and then talking about how private property is inviolable and so on.

I have always refuted such statements.

Such a premise is that you do not pose a threat to sovereign states, especially the five permanent members; otherwise, as long as your physical body is still on Earth, all the technical means of hiding wealth are just wishful thinking.

So, it is best to do fewer things in life that one shouldn't do. After so many years of turmoil, in the end, wealth is handed over to the United States, and the physical body is handed over to China.

What good is having so much money? As long as it cannot be passed on, and you cannot spend it yourself, it is only temporarily held for society.

These past more than a month have been spent traveling around
visiting friends while exploring various places, barely checking the market

The market situation during this period has indeed been stagnant
People keep saying it's a bear market, but #Bitcoin hasn't dropped yet
It's been oscillating repeatedly between 80,000 and 90,000

There's another opinion suggesting that the four-year cycle
has been completely ended due to state intervention
There won't be obvious bull and bear market rotations anymore

Of course, altcoins will likely not last much longer
Either create something real or step aside

With Trump's sudden strike on Venezuela at the start of the new year
various assets, whether Bitcoin or gold, seem to be stirring again

Maybe 2026 could actually bring something different
in the market

Regardless, today's world or industry
has reached a milestone turning point

How things develop next will be something to watch closely

Let's settle everything in one go, even if the cost is another four years. As long as the big players are still harvesting liquidity in this market, the industry can never improve.

Is the bear market coming this aggressively?

Since November, #Bitcoin has fallen below 100,000 for the third time
Ultimately, it has returned to the familiar five-digit number

When will the next wave of the market come?
Next week? Next month? Or four years later?

Maybe those born after 2000 and 2005 still have a chance
But I, in my 30s, can no longer wait for the next four years...

✅“Congressional Goddess of Stocks” Pelosi announced her retirement last week:

38 years in Congress
Investment return rate 16930%
Average annual 14.5%

✅“Omaha God of Stocks” Buffett announced his retirement yesterday:

Over 60 years of investment career
Investment return rate 5500000%
Average annual 20%

Now the market is officially in the hands of
“White House God of Stocks” Trump

What do you think the total return rate of the Supreme Leader's family assets will be after his four-year term?

From a morphological perspective, the double bottom at the 100,000 point has already formed.

$108,000 is estimated to be a relatively key support level in the short term.
#BTC is a relatively critical support point.

We may need to wait for the U.S. government to officially announce the reopening
before there is a chance to break through this level.
It is estimated that by then, there will be a pile of short sellers' corpses.