马思旗

Traders who’ve bought into 99% of projects that end up going to zero shouldn’t look down on A-shares. Sure, it’s not like the US stock market, where it’s been stagnant around 3000 points for ages, but at least there are a few solid picks like Moutai. Now, Web3? Let’s not even go there; it’s clear everyone’s voting with their feet and jumping ship to the AI wave in the US market. So, in reality, the A-shares aren’t the worst option out there.

Web3 is now less connected to the internet
but traditional industries are looking more and more similar
relying not on tech innovation but on networking and connections
resource allocation is highly concentrated in the hands of a few
and just like the nouveau riche, it's all about flashy cars and clubbing with models
no different from the contractors of a decade ago.

If we say that "feminism" is the proletarian revolution of gender
then "crypto" is the proletarian revolution of finance

The evolutionary process is very similar

✅ First, the progressive representatives:
BTC and ETH burst onto the scene

✅ Then came the populism:
Elite VC coins were the first to snatch the fruits of the revolution
Later players had no choice but to pivot to meme coins

✅ Finally, the "rightward" opportunism:
Conspiracy groups, under the banner of memes, began to harvest
Community co-building evolved into a game for the few

Originally, it was the 2008 subprime crisis
The establishment was severely weakened
The progressive figure, Satoshi Nakamoto, saw the opportunity
Aiming to take down Wall Street

Now, we find that early elites have abandoned the progressive route
Allowing conspiracy groups to seize the chance to manipulate populism
Even colluding to harvest crypto believers together

It's worse than the establishment's blatant greed
Causing chaos everywhere

So why not return to a centrist route to initiate a coin-stock fusion
Temporarily cease fire with Wall Street to reach a "United Front" cooperation

Thus, we see the current major CEXs
Energetically embracing the surge of US stocks

The "feminist movement" is basically the 21st-century proletarian revolution. Although it inevitably shifts from progressivism to populism, it represents a certain group's determination to resist oppression and exploitation.

It reflects a dramatic change in the production relations of the era, stemming from the great development of productive forces, but also declining due to stagnation. In between, there was a rise of extreme left populism, and even the emergence of "sugar baby literature" as a form of right-leaning opportunism.

However, true power comes from building a new distribution order. The saying goes, "political power grows out of the barrel of a gun"; merely having the discourse power without controlling the means of production isn't enough. Thinking about returning to a past distribution order reliant on coercion is also not viable when revolutionary success seems hopeless.

Whether it's today's popular individualism or the collective traditions of the past, any era that aims to establish a stable power structure must bear corresponding responsibilities, meaning rights and duties must be balanced. Thus, we need to wait for the transformation of production relations.

The persistent popularity of "Letters to Grandma" in the public discourse might signify a state-driven rectification of the "feminist movement" and even Western liberal thoughts, evolving from holding high the banner of progressivism to extreme left populism mixed with right-leaning opportunism, and then returning to a more institutional path moving forward.

At that moment, just like this moment, a century has passed, and history continues to cycle...

KOLs are collectively shifting to US stocks
Not because they're starting to value invest
But because Web3 can't tell a story and no one is picking up the bag

They're heading to US stocks
Still playing short-term trades with futures contracts
So CEXs are also moving to US stocks to satisfy demand

The old "influencer" supply chain
Is likely to be completely restructured during this time

Unfortunately, as long as speculation continues
The endgame is actually the same...

When all the players shift to the US stock market
Maybe that's the best time to build in crypto

After all, we're taking on such big risks
Not to just pick up some century-old financial products
To earn a few points to get by and live out our days

We're here to create a new world.

The big players are visiting one after another
It's basically a sign of the ebb and flow of national strength
At this moment, CEO Run feels like he’s back in '49, joining the national army

Monetary hegemony often lags behind other forms of dominance
Let’s just hold our positions a bit longer.

The Truth Behind the U.S. Stablecoin Bill: It's Really About 'Debt Conversion'

In the past, major buyers of U.S. debt were central banks and sovereign funds, but now these big players have stopped buying, and some are quietly reducing their holdings, opting instead to stack gold.

With a multi-trillion-dollar gap that no one is filling, what's the move? The answer is: leveraging blockchain technology to let global retail investors take the baton, which is what stablecoins like USDT and USDC represent.

Many folks think they’re a safe haven, but in reality, they're just the dollar's way of finding a bagholder, set up as a vacuum cleaner at the base of the internet:

1. Breaking it down: Previously, when big players bought, it was in the tens or hundreds of billions. Now, stablecoin issuers break these U.S. debts apart, package them up, and sell them via tokens to billions of retail investors worldwide, while enhancing the dollar's penetration and dodging forex controls.

2. Precision absorption: As long as you hold stablecoins and participate in the so-called wealth game, you’re essentially using your private liquidity to help alleviate sovereign debt risk.

This is reminiscent of the 2008 financial crisis: big players exit, and retail investors crowdsource to fill the gap.

When all the chips of any asset end up in retail hands, it's basically the last leg of the race, and you know how that ends.

CNY → Bullish
NASDAQ → Bullish
A-shares → Bullish

So, is the crypto market just a playground for the influencers?

Durov, that guy, got picked up at the airport in France a couple of years ago for some tea. After that trip, his eyes seemed clearer, kind of like how CZ looked after settling his fines in the U.S.—low-key, humble, cautious, and reserved🤣🤣

Since then, he hasn’t mentioned anything about crypto communication, claiming tech is innocent, privacy is paramount, or fighting against the big five, you know the drill.

As a good bro backed by Musk, I wonder if the recent moves on the X platform sparked some inspiration (or maybe a sense of crisis? Or a safety signal?) for Durov.

After a long silence, he finally remembered he’s holding a global social network with over 1 billion monthly active users, which is a bigger potential user base than any public chain out there right now. Can you believe it took until the recent app update for him to elevate the crypto wallet to a primary entry point in the chat dialog?

Plus, the whole process doesn’t even require a seed phrase; you can just register with your phone number to get a wallet, which significantly lowers the learning curve. This time, the app's official team is replacing the #TON foundation as the main player and starting to build alongside XChat, giving off a vibe of splitting the world in two. The pace of business expansion from here on out is going to grow exponentially.

The ability to use social media at high frequency while hitting finance at low frequency has already played out in the WeChat Pay vs. Alipay battle, and we all know how that turned out. Just like in Web2, whoever dominates social media will dominate the landscape. Every exchange is ramping up its social features as a traffic pool for distribution.

I have a feeling that in the next market cycle, major public chains will integrate deeply with the app functionalities of their respective platforms, moving away from the previous model of just pulling traffic from the public domain and hatching similar DeFi and Perp Dex projects to attract users through airdrop incentives.

From now on, the gap between public chains will gradually become evident, and the barriers of tech narratives will weaken, shifting towards a traffic logic. Those without support from major platforms might need to start scouting for partners soon, or they could face industry shakeout and elimination.

Regardless, payments are going to be the main theme of the next wave in crypto, and it will be interesting to see who can ride the wave first.

Looks like the KOLs are having a rough time this May Day
We're back in the familiar bear market phase of defending our positions.

At the beginning of the war, the AI's simulation of the impact of this conflict on the market now seems to be formally entering the second phase.

In the meantime, whether it is releasing strategic oil reserves or suspending sanctions on Russian oil, it cannot fundamentally avoid the long-term upward trend in oil prices. Therefore, WTI crude oil prices have once again broken through the 100 mark today.

As risk aversion gradually digests, the market will begin to price for the protraction of the war, and the surge in crude oil prices is bound to trigger inflation. According to past experience, the Federal Reserve needs to raise interest rates to curb inflation; however, the current scale of U.S. debt and interest payments makes this process seem powerless.

Long-term high inflation may trigger stagflation. If interest rates are not raised, imported inflation will inevitably impact global manufacturing and lead to deep recessions due to reduced demand, thus impacting the market. Conversely, if interest rates are raised, tightening liquidity will also trigger market declines.

Therefore, we also see that today the major global capital markets have fallen synchronously. After the U.S. military's large-scale gathering in the Persian Gulf to start ground battles, it is uncertain whether there will be any 'black swan' events.

In the short to medium term, the market is already pricing in recession; in the long run, if the Strait of Hormuz continues to be blocked, the interruption of the 'petrodollar' chain will weaken the willingness of Middle Eastern funds to invest in U.S. dollar assets. Meanwhile, war expenditures will continue to weigh on finances, potentially forcing the Federal Reserve to turn to fiscal monetization (MMT), further damaging the credibility of the dollar.

The speed at which dollar hegemony descends from its pedestal may be faster than we imagine, and for cryptocurrencies, whether gold or BTC, it is actually favorable, as they are essentially a repricing of the dollar's credibility.

SpaceX is about to IPO, as a loyal fan of Musk who is one of the few in the crypto circle to have his ID written, it is natural to congratulate Mr. Ma at this moment, as he is one step closer to becoming the world's first "trillionaire".

With a valuation of 17.5 trillion, once listed, it will leap to become the 6th largest publicly traded company in the US stock market, only behind technology giants like Nvidia, Apple, Google, etc.

However, with such a large scale, it also has a siphoning effect on the liquidity of the US stock market.

Now, due to the Iran conflict, global funds are selling off for safety, and liquidity is already tight; I wonder if it will put pressure on the market at that time.

Moreover, the major investors in American tech stocks have always been the princes of the Middle East. Now that the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, oil cannot be transported out to exchange for US dollars. This break in the cycle is not good news for the US capital market.

Another year 312
This time it's Dubai's real estate that has plummeted.

Regardless of whether in the Web3 circle or the AI circle, everyone is persistently mingling in the circles for one purpose: either to find opportunities to do something big together or to find opportunities to make a big impact together.

I remember last year it was around this time that the AI Agent concept in the crypto world gained some traction, with several coins appearing, like Ai16Z and the like, which within less than a month surged to a market value of several hundred million to over a billion. Soon after, DeepSeek burst onto the scene, and these coins crashed, and then there was nothing more to follow.

This year, OpenClew has once again become a sensation, and AI Agents seem to have finally shown some glimmer of real-world application. However, the market has become as cold as ever due to the harvesting by Trump, and people in the crypto sphere have completely given up on treatment, no longer riding the wave to issue coins but have all jumped into the AI sector, plunging into the embrace of Vibe Coding.

Of course, they also brought over the Web3 style, rushing to form groups and hold conferences everywhere before even doing anything substantial, feeling that if they don’t join soon, they’ll be left behind by the times. Certainly, compared to hyping various revenue-less air projects, this is some progress, as the Tokens consumed are real cash.

However, the outcome is likely to be similar to the previous Web3 experience, where after the hype, it all turns to chaos. The so-called 'wave that changes the world' turns out to be rather useless, ultimately contributing funds to various exchanges and large model vendors, while also supporting a group of people reselling mining machines/Mac Minis.

Of course, to say there is absolutely no value would not be objective. Besides appearing to grasp the pulse of the times and packaging online personas for traffic monetization, there’s also the chance to connect with a few like-minded individuals from Web3 who are re-entering the job market, mutually encouraging each other to alleviate anxiety. Who knows, there might be an opportunity in the future to pull off a big move (cannon).

When working on Libra, Zuckerberg was dragged to Congress and received a scolding, which made him realize his limitations; stablecoins are not something that a Silicon Valley newcomer like him can handle.

Thus, he renamed the company Meta and transformed into the metaverse, burning hundreds of billions without achieving anything.

Seeing AI gaining traction, he went all in on large models; LLaMa was decent at first, being a leader in the open-source camp, but as major companies deeply entered the fray, it gradually fell behind in fierce competition.

Zuckerberg, in a panic, started acquiring companies and changing leadership, with a typical example being the $2 billion acquisition of Manus at the end of last year.

I wonder how this latest foray into the crypto industry and the development of stablecoin payments will turn out; it feels like every time he starts early, he ends up late, reminiscent of a bit of the “Silicon Valley Baidu” vibe.

AI Circle: Also known as A Circle
Crypto Circle: Also known as B Circle

Any industry that becomes a 'circle' will eventually attract a large number of fraudsters, making the industry chaotic. I wonder when AI will start talking about the 'Shandong Learning' of human sentiment and social etiquette 🤣🤣

AI is currently a hotspot and its implementation speed has become a gathering place for a large number of laid-off middle-class workers from Web2, somewhat similar to Web3 back in the day. I estimate that over 90% of these people who talk about AI every day have no idea who Geoffrey Hinton is. Of course, there are also many cryptocurrency traders who don't know who Satoshi Nakamoto is, but that doesn't stop everyone from losing money. However, I have never liked following the crowd; I'd rather stay in Web3 and continue to muddle through.

It feels like the AI industry is truly changing rapidly
Every day there are exciting new things coming out

In contrast, Web3 seems to be collectively abandoned by the tech community
Completely forgotten in the dust of history

However, thinking about it from another angle
If the industry hadn't been unable to take off for so long
And had been subjected to various sovereign states' attacks

Then when large companies like BAT enter the field
And start a hundred billion subsidy model
What does it have to do with ordinary people like us?