币姥爷

1、《牛市杀器：资金费率套利介绍》

2、《12月10日与6日暴跌复盘：不容忽视的资金费率及潜在机会》

3、《市场出现一致性看空》

4、《408暴跌之后，币圈是否已严重错杀？》

5、《币姥爷的加密货币交易思维方式》

6、《WLFI套利复盘》

2026-05-13
The strategies I've been running recently have been doing pretty well, thanks to the market conditions. It's been a one-way street because my strategy is trend-based, which means the market has been trending upwards. Given that we're in a bullish trend, theoretically, it should be a long play, but to be honest, this market is tricky to navigate.
There's a new play lately called preIPO, which involves tokenizing shares of some tech giants on the market, especially the hot ones this year like SpaceX, OpenAI, and the parent company of Claude Code. While this reflects a lack of quality assets in the crypto space, it's also the best path for the RWA sector and a clear direction for current tokenization experiments.

May 12, 2026
A few days ago, I made a nice play on Hong Kong stocks, and today I dumped some in the dark market for over 10,000 HKD. If I keep this rhythm up, the capital locked in HK stocks could yield about 50% annual returns. Money always chases profit, and even with the high barrier to entry for new issues in HK stocks, many folks are teaming up to set up accounts there. So, in the crypto scene, don’t worry about the lack of players; it's all about the wealth effect, especially since the barrier to entry in crypto is way lower compared to HK stocks.
It's just me for now. If the threshold for HK stocks were a bit lower, I’d definitely shift some more capital into new issues. But honestly, finding someone to open an account in Hong Kong is a hassle, and transferring funds out is also a headache. However, this highlights a key issue: the current crypto market isn’t attracting much speculative capital that’s actively engaged with the current market.

May 10, 2026
The market rhythm is solid; today I saw UNI's price touch $4 again. While the price isn't stellar, it gives off that feeling of 'waiting for the clouds to part and reveal the moon.' Honestly, this price doesn't even qualify as value discovery for UNI, but the overall weakness in the DeFi sector is still lingering, especially after AAVE's collateral issues nearly led to a $300 million disaster. The reason I say the market rhythm is good is that funds are starting to rotate back into higher market cap coins like UNI today and TON from a couple of days ago.
I won't list examples to avoid giving the impression that I'm recommending or chasing pumps, but overall, you should feel it: capital in the crypto space is becoming active again. This activity can be seen in several phenomena, like the massive short squeeze in altcoins that kicked off a month ago, Bitcoin slowly creeping back up over $80,000, and the catch-up rally in higher market cap altcoins and mainstream coins. If this rhythm continues, we should see more mainstream coins on the rise, especially in the DeFi sector. Of course, given the disappointments in the past, I’m not planning to chase positions this time; I’ll just use my existing holdings to guard against potential upward movements.

May 9, 2026
Bitcoin's price has bounced back to 80,000, and Ethereum is also back at 2300. It seems we're just in a range-bound consolidation phase, but I believe this is a necessary step for a breakout. The recent rally has a backdrop, as tech stocks in the US are surging, which definitely reflects a FOMO state.
While it's true that a crash in US stocks could drag down other risk assets, and the crypto space can't escape that, I think this actually indicates that there is capital flowing in. It's a simple logic: as funds pour into high-tech AI companies, the rise in crypto must be driven by rational investment.

2026-05-08
Heard the news, apparently Trump is heading to China. Two superpowers' bosses meeting—curious to see what kind of "fireworks" will spark. There's a recent flick, (Cold War 1994), about the tumultuous times in Hong Kong before the '97 handover. The Brits wanted to maintain control behind the scenes after the return, leading to all kinds of power plays. Gotta say, the geopolitical drama among these big players is always thrilling. History tells us this, and reality keeps unfolding. As for this upcoming meeting, I believe since he's making the trip, it’ll likely send some bullish signals, which is good news for the capital markets.

May 7, 2026
Recently, there have been two $1 billion news items. The first is Binance's previous market support, where they bottom-fished $1 billion. With this recent BTC price surge, they're sitting on a paper profit of $200 million. However, if they had bottom-fished ETH during the same period, they're still not back in the green. You can only say, the big guy is still the big guy. This market crash saw BTC dip to a low of $60k, effectively halving from its relative peak. If this indeed triggers a rebound, Binance seems to have caught the bottom range perfectly. However, there are no selling updates yet, so the future profit potential from this bottom-fishing is enormous.
The second is a massive $1 billion short position in the oil market. As the US and Iran reached a certain level of détente, oil prices plummeted. This short was executed with such precision that it racked up nearly $200 million in profits. Who pulled off such a slick move is anyone's guess. All I can say is, for the big players, making money seems to come easy, and they're rolling in billions.

May 6, 2026
Brothers, check out this trend—an overall market rebound has officially started. BTC has broken past 80,000 and is holding strong, while ETH has also breached 2400. But the most noteworthy point is the one I mentioned yesterday: mainstream assets are starting to fire up. Just look at the gainers list; we already see some classic altcoins and major coins making moves.
The typical market cycle kicks off with BTC leading the charge, followed by the major altcoins, and finally the small caps. However, the current crypto scene isn't following the usual playbook; smart money is pumping small-cap altcoins instead. Since BTC's accumulation phase takes longer, we have to wait for the high-cap altcoins to pump first. Regardless, the signs of capital flow in this market trend are pretty clear.

May 5, 2026
The holiday is wrapping up; how's everyone doing? Same as usual, the popular tourist spots are packed, but that doesn't stop folks from hitting the road—after all, there are only so many days off. What's particularly interesting is that my earlier analysis is holding up; in the latter half of this holiday, the market is gaining momentum. Bitcoin has silently broken past $80,000, and Ethereum continues to hover around the $2,400 mark, with a shot at setting new highs for the past two months. This trend, in my view, has established a pre-breakout pattern. This wave not only experienced a significant downturn but also a rebound followed by a retest, creating an outstanding breakout window.

April 30, 2026
An old-school launch project, megaETH, is finally gearing up for its TGE after a year. I've been keeping an eye on this project, not so much for participating in the launch but for the arbitrage opportunities. Initially, I thought it would go live pretty quickly, which would wrap up the arbitrage, but now my funds have been tied up for a year. Plus, there's the risk of potential short squeezes during this time. The good news is that with the overall market downturn, megaETH's market cap has also dropped significantly, from an initial valuation of $4-5 billion down to nearly $1 billion, which is also the valuation during the public sale. So I picked up a bit back then. If this project successfully TGE's today, the market cap could bounce back to around $2 billion, which means my year-long wait won’t be totally in vain, but in the end, the ROI should still be pretty average.

The market is still choppy, and before the May Day holiday, we shouldn't expect any significant volatility. I've noticed that Binance Square has integrated an API, which means we can use AI to create an automated bot that just dumps content into the square daily. This could be a subtle way AI is influencing our daily lives. Recently, the market's volatility has been pretty average; to be honest, it's tough to find angles to write about every day. But since AI is so advanced, I guess that's one of the reasons to stick with handwritten content. Honestly, the quality of AI-generated articles will keep improving, and it's probably just a matter of time before handwritten content is replaced.

April 28, 2026
Today's market is pretty interesting; the top two gainers are actually two coins that are about to be delisted—one is DAM and the other is ZKJ. To be honest, I just started running a delisting strategy and happened to get caught up with these two, which hit my stop loss. This actually highlights something: the current market liquidity is really active, even delisted coins are stirring up some action.
From the altcoin perspective, things have cooled off a bit recently, but overall, the scene is still pretty lively. Bitcoin and other major assets are hanging around their highs, oscillating. I believe this trend will wait for the right moment to break out. However, with the May Day holiday coming up, a breakout is almost impossible in the next few days; let’s reevaluate the situation after the holiday.

Trump nearly took a hit again; at the White House Correspondents' Association dinner, a 31-year-old dude tried to breach security with a shotgun, handgun, and knife, but was tackled by Secret Service agents. Since Trump officially launched his presidential campaign, he's faced three assassination attempts, with the most notorious being that time he got popped in the right ear. Now he's the president, and with so many folks unhappy about his policies, security is definitely on high alert—it's gonna be tough to pull off another hit. Just like this time, I mean, a guy charging in with weapons? That's practically a death wish; you really think the Secret Service agents are just sitting ducks?

April 25, 2026
Today I checked out BrainCo, and I was really impressed. Not only is their product line consumer-oriented, but the company has also raised $500 million. The leader in this space is still Musk's NeuraLink, with a funding round of about $800 million. However, NeuraLink's method of receiving brainwaves is invasive, whereas BrainCo connects through peripherals.
Brain-machine interfaces are definitely one of the future trends, just like AI and robotics. They can bring massive changes to human society and are a prime investment track. One scenario I'm really looking forward to is the ability to control peripherals directly with brainwaves, just like in sci-fi movies, taking control of a humanoid robot.

April 24, 2026
The market has cooled a bit compared to last week, but we haven't seen any major pullbacks, which is definitely good for the overall market. The current trend in U.S. stocks is still solid, and this week has successfully hit new all-time highs. Given the current situation, it's a really impressive performance. However, I've been thinking lately—if U.S. stocks keep rising steadily, could there be a sudden crash? If that happens, I think there could be an opportunity to scoop up some altcoins at a bargain, maybe even at rock-bottom prices.
This is just an ordinary daily update, but I want to remind everyone that the opportunities I mentioned earlier might be worth setting up some buy orders. Put in a small amount of capital, and if there's a loss of interest income, just consider it like buying a lottery ticket. Of course, this strategy also applies to the crypto market, just like past plays with WBETH and BNSOL. The options in stocks are a bit limited, so you don’t have to do too much homework.

April 22, 2026
The current market strength is still solid, with Bitcoin nearing the 80k mark, just a couple thousand bucks away from breaking through. Ethereum is back around 3400. The upcoming market trend is becoming clearer, indicating a decent rebound. Currently, both external factors and the data from various coins are supporting a bullish rally.
After a pump from heavily manipulated altcoins, other altcoins are starting to show some action. This is actually a good signal, meaning these altcoins are genuinely following the market trend. Their breakout can, in turn, validate that the market is indeed starting to move. However, this is still a rebound after a bearish consolidation, and we should expect some pullbacks before a full breakout—keep that in mind.

April 21, 2026
Recently, the Hong Kong stock market has been very popular for new listings. Although the winning rate is not high, the returns are quite good, often resulting in several thousand in profit from a single hand, and even tens of thousands at times. Additionally, due to SpaceX's upcoming IPO, Bitget and Gate have recently organized their own pre-IPOs. In simple terms, the cryptocurrency circle is venturing into and expanding the stock cryptocurrency market, and the next target for trading everything is stocks.
Strategically speaking, this is not a problem, but to some extent, it also has a sense of helplessness. If high-quality assets in the cryptocurrency circle were flourishing everywhere, do you think there would still be a need to do this? Now, whether it's Cex like Binance or on-chain trading platforms represented by Hype, the trading volume ratio of stocks to cryptocurrencies is gradually increasing.