【Oushen's Analysis】 I'm Oushen Crypto Bullet's script is very clear: · Wave X: First pump to $80k+, making the bulls think the bull run is back. · Wave Y: A direct chop to $40,000 as the ultimate bottom. Timeframe: September to October 2026, about 5 months from now, aligns with the historical bear market cycle length. Why is it trustworthy? 1️⃣ On-chain data: Currently, BTC's realized price is around $56k, historically the bear market bottom averages a drop of 33% below the realized price, landing around $37k–$43k, overlapping with $40k. 2️⃣ Time resonance: The last two bear markets (2018, 2022) lasted about 12–13 months from peak to trough; if this one mirrors that, September to October is right at the end.
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The last statement is that Bitcoin dipped around 35k, but as we approach the bottom, the buying pressure is increasing. A drop from 83k to just over 50k is about right. We're going all in around 55k with $BTC .
After being in the crypto scene for a while, it's clear to everyone: this space has made a lot of people successful, but it has also pushed many away, it's harsh and real.
I've been in the market for over a year, and I've been stuck in a limbo state. During this time, I haven't streamed or taken any trades, not because I've lost confidence but because I'm genuinely confused and my mind is a mess; I can't find a direction to stick with.
I came in with full confidence, hoping for a satisfying outcome. This year, I've experienced ups and downs, going from a grand to several thousands, then back down to just a few grand. The repeated swings have made me reflect deeply.
In the last half month, I've put everything on pause and locked myself at home, feeling particularly tormented inside. I often wonder why others can consistently profit and have an upward trajectory while I'm stuck in place, unable to break free from my current situation. $BTC
This rally is essentially a chain reaction caused by shorts getting liquidated. The real pressure zone is still in the $83,000–$85,000 range. Additionally, on-chain data shows that long-term holders are still distributing, indicating that the veterans are cautious about the future market. So for my left-side positioning, I'll set my first test buy around $83,000. Right now, most folks in the market are betting on 'one last dip,' and when expectations are this unified, the market usually needs to shake them out first. This bounce feels more like the big players are selectively cleaning out those who entered early and tried to catch the top.