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Let's tidy up the crypto: shorting BTC, shorting crude oil
Spot trading focus on OG, ASR
We're waiting for the bloom, and also for ETH to catch up; ETH chain is worth a look too.

Institutional funds keep pouring in, becoming the biggest highlight. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded strong inflows again this week, with products like BlackRock's IBIT contributing significantly, and the cumulative inflow has remained high for several weeks. Ethereum ETFs also saw a net inflow of over $100 million on their first day, showing that traditional financial institutions are increasingly willing to allocate to crypto assets. Morgan Stanley and other institutions have increased their BTC ETF positions, further solidifying the market bottom. The stablecoin sector is also heating up, with Circle's stock price recently surging, and Western Union planning to launch a dollar stablecoin on Solana. USDC circulation has hit a new high, and combined with favorable regulations, the narrative around stablecoins and real-world asset tokenization (RWA) continues to gain traction.

Next week’s big macro data—US April CPI will drop on May 12 (Tuesday) at 8:30 AM, which is the biggest market mover for crypto this week and next. March CPI has rebounded to 3.3% year-on-year, and the market is widely focused on whether April's data will continue to rise due to oil prices and geopolitical factors. Analysts expect core CPI to increase moderately by 0.2%-0.3% month-on-month, but items like gasoline could push the overall reading higher. If the CPI data meets or comes in lower than expectations, it will strengthen the market's confidence in the Fed cutting rates, which is bullish for risk assets, and BTC could challenge the $83,000-$90,000 range; conversely, “hot” data will delay rate cut expectations, strengthen the dollar, and dampen risk appetite, potentially triggering a short-term pullback. Currently, the market has a cautiously optimistic view on CPI, with derivatives positions relatively stable, but leverage still needs to be watched closely.

Hot events are popping up everywhere. On the regulatory front, the US Senate Banking Committee is pushing forward the Clarity Act hearing, with the SEC chair sending positive signals for on-chain markets and AI-driven finance. Kraken's parent company is applying for a federal crypto banking license. Although the European Central Bank has issued warnings about stablecoin risks, the overall regulatory framework is becoming clearer, paving the way for institutional entry. The tech and innovation track is just as lively: at Consensus Miami's hackathon, nearly a thousand developers are building products around AI Agents in ecosystems like Base and Solana, with the AI + blockchain fusion becoming the new hot spot. The key objectives of Ethereum's Glamsterdam upgrade are basically completed, and the increase in Gas Limit is expected to significantly improve network throughput. In the DeFi space, Arbitrum DAO has overwhelmingly voted to unfreeze $71 million worth of ETH and move it to Aave, showcasing governance maturity. XRP is buoyed by cross-border payments and Ripple dynamics, with prices nearing the $1.40 mark.

$DYM previously consolidated in the 0.0195–0.023 range for several days (bottoming out). Today (5/9), we saw a massive bullish candlestick, shooting up from a low of 0.01951 to a high of 0.03182, with a single-day gain exceeding 60%. Multiple bullish candles have broken through several moving averages, indicating a classic bottom reversal + trend initiation structure. The chart shows that the trend has shifted from consolidation to bullish, but we may see a "pump and dump" scenario. Keep any single trade under 1–2% of total capital and enforce strict stop-losses.

Today, the altcoins are slowly picking up. Compared to yesterday's gains, today's increase looks pretty solid. With the World Cup just around the corner next month, it's worth keeping an eye on fan tokens like OG and ASR.

Brothers, we've hit the jackpot, $DOGS dogs this wave is my ticket to freedom.
This round has been solid, getting ready to drop some prizes and share the wealth.
Summer's here, so I'm gonna hook my bros up with some drinks, planning to give away 10.
Click my avatar to DM me, let's ride this wave together.

Bitcoin is holding steady around the 80,000 mark, with no significant breakouts or crash signals, indicating a low volatility accumulation phase. ETH is following BTC but showing relative weakness. Today is likely to be calm, making it a good time to observe. It's crucial for BTC to maintain the 80k level as key support; if it holds, we might see further sideways action; on the flip side, a drop could test lower support levels.

Next week, the major focus is on the CPI data, dropping on Tuesday at 8 PM.
Also, Trump is visiting China.
And let's not forget, the Fed Chair is due for a change.

Looking at this, I thought the bull was back, and the alt season has kicked off. However, compared to yesterday's market, today is definitely looking much better. Many altcoins are starting to rebound, and we're seeing a general uptick, with some showing pretty decent gains.

This week's data is pretty much non-existent; yesterday's non-farm payrolls are wrapped up.
Today, being Saturday, the only thing on the docket is Trump's speech. Any data coming in doesn't hold a candle to what Trump has to say.

The current strategy is to 'position during the range'. For short-term trades, keep an eye on the BTC buy zone around 79000-80000, with a stop-loss set at 76000; for mid-term, continue holding core positions in BTC/ETH, and focus on solid fundamental altcoins. Be cautious with leverage, as volatility may remain high post-NFP, and it's advisable to control your position size between 30%-50%.
The NFP data acts like a mirror, reflecting both the resilience of the US economy and the crypto market's heightened sensitivity to macro factors. Against the backdrop of a potential shift in Fed policy and global capital reallocation, the crypto space is transitioning from being 'emotion-driven' to being driven by 'fundamentals + liquidity'. Although the market in May had its ups and downs, it is giving rise to more structural opportunities.

Looking back at this week's market, BTC shot up past 81000 in the early session, and altcoins are bouncing back, showing clear signs of risk appetite returning. Although the non-farm data caused some short-term volatility, it hasn't changed the mid to long-term trend: global liquidity expectations for 2026 remain loose, with institutional players entering and the effects of Bitcoin's halving still brewing. Historical data shows that after strong non-farm numbers, the crypto market often dips before rallying, especially when the data doesn't trigger extreme tightening expectations.

We need to keep a close eye on three major variables: the Fed's upcoming dot plot and Powell's statements, the May CPI/PPI inflation data, and the degree of easing geopolitical risks. If next week's data continues to show an economic "soft landing," rate cut expectations may gradually recover, and BTC could aim to reclaim the 80000-85000 range; conversely, if employment remains hot and strengthens the "higher for longer" outlook, we might test the 78000-76000 support in the short term. ETH, on the other hand, is benefiting from the expansion of the Layer2 ecosystem and ongoing inflows into spot ETFs, and is expected to outperform BTC.

After the non-farm payroll data dropped, the market hasn’t really budged, just a lot of wicks up and down. So, for my high-leverage bros, it’s a bit nerve-wracking, but other than that, nothing much has changed.

No worries, just let it ride, can't even ask about it.

In my view, non-farm data is just small potatoes; the real big data is Trump's speeches... I'm just worried he'll say this ceasefire agreement is off, that one's no good either, and then we start seeing volatility. The result is the market begins to tank, hitting #特朗普暂停“自由计划” .

From the overall performance of the altcoins, you can see that while a lot of coins are up—around 80%—there are very few standout coins, with those gaining over 5% being really rare, making up less than 10%. Simply put, the market feels weak and feeble, just like today’s trading action. And those coins that have pumped up will ultimately drop back down.

$BSB bsb has surged 39% today, showcasing a classic RWA narrative with a pulse-style pump, making profit-taking likely. New projects often have unlocks, so keep an eye on subsequent sell pressure. The RWA sector is highly correlated with the overall BTC market, and if the broader market pulls back, it will likely drop as well. The trend is strong, but stick to strict take-profit and stop-loss levels. If the RWA narrative continues to gain traction (policy, institutional involvement), there may be room for further upside.

Today, the overall altcoin market is pretty quiet. It’s not just the altcoins; the entire crypto space is the same. Funds are all concentrated on Bitcoin, and there’s barely any flow to the altcoins. However, most altcoins are showing slight rebounds, but the momentum is limited, following a gentle recovery in BTC. Still, due to BTC's dominance, the rotation effect isn't very noticeable. Major coins are up slightly but haven’t outperformed BTC, while the meme sector is relatively active. In the short term, BTC remains the leader, and altcoins are lacking independent breakout potential.