Bitcoin's cycles keep repeating similar patterns. Looking back at history, you'll see a clear rhythm: peak → crash → bottom → recovery → new high, rinse and repeat.
2017 cycle: peaked at around $20K, then crashed down to about $3,200; 2021 cycle: hit around $69K before a significant pullback, dropping to about $15.5K; Current cycle (post-2024 halving): projected to peak around $126K in 2025, currently oscillating around $79K.
We're not entering a brand new independent cycle; rather, we're still in the correction phase following the last major cycle's peak (the second stage of the cycle: bear market adjustment and bottoming out period).
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Bitcoin's price has been closely mirroring the inflows and outflows of the US spot Bitcoin ETF. Right now, ETF funds are likely one of the most significant marginal buyers of BTC, with institutional contributions accounting for about 70%.
This stands in stark contrast to the 2021 bull run, which was primarily driven by retail traders.
This shift is reshaping the flow of funds: just because it's becoming more institutional doesn't mean the entire Crypto market will benefit in sync. The liquidity injected by the ETF is unlikely to spill over and rotate into altcoins like it used to. In the future, many altcoins will struggle to keep up with Bitcoin over the long haul, and some may even gradually fade away.
The top 10 companies in the S&P 500 now account for nearly 40% of the index. If upcoming major IPOs like Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX get included, the concentration could approach 50%. The performance of the index is increasingly driven by just a handful of names, and the S&P 500 is basically no longer offering much diversification.
Just dropped: The FOMC will announce the interest rate decision tonight at 2:00 AM Beijing time (Thursday, April 30). The market expects no changes to the rates.
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林彬Bit
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Bullish
$ROBO is currently testing hourly support; I'm entering a light long position at 20x leverage with my entry at 0.0202.
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The industry landscape is shifting, and our strategies need to adapt.
A few years ago, institutions were going all-in, valuations in hot sectors were sky-high, and you could see dozens of competitors popping up in any niche. Back then, fake followers and phony traffic influencers were virtually non-existent; the number of projects far exceeded the number of influencers, and traffic influencers had no shortage of offers, with projects lining up for collaborations.
Now, it's a different story: institutions have hit the brakes, old projects are mostly dead, and new ones are crashing and burning right out of the gate. The fairy tale of influencers striking it rich during the last bull run lured a ton of matrix accounts to jump in—buying followers, boosting numbers, and supporting each other, all scrambling for those tens or hundreds of dollars in ad deals. When you add up all those accounts, they’re earning less than a construction worker.
This place is no longer a goldmine to blindly scoop up cash. Once the market saturates, the bubble is not far from bursting. Most of those who enjoyed wild growth during the early days will be weeded out.
Those struggling to make money are left in a fog, while the ones with foresight have already executed a smooth pivot. The capable can rake in hundreds of thousands, even millions, while the less skilled can barely make ends meet.
Your vision and mindset ultimately determine how far you can go. Some wait for the market to change and then scramble to keep up, while others have already switched gears before the market cooled off. So, sometimes using your brain is way more important than just putting in the grind.