BH-加密皇

【Boldly predicting the bottom of this bear market, the standard trend of five-wave decline】
Partners, Bitcoin is currently priced around 72400. We have mentioned several times that Bitcoin is undergoing a five-wave structure in a bear market. It is now clearer that we are in the fourth wave rebound structure. In Chart 1 at the daily level: we can see that Bitcoin broke below the long-term upward trend line, announcing the end of the bull market and entering a bear market. After the first wave collapsed, a rebound and consolidation formed a second wave continuation structure. After more than 50 days and a rebound of over 17000 points, it entered the third wave, which plummeted by over 38000 points. Currently, we are in the fourth wave rebound structure. Referring to the second wave movement, the more than 50 days and over 17000 points rebound just reaches the upper yellow downward trend line. After the completion of the fourth wave, the fifth wave's collapse is likely to follow the equal distance decline of the second wave, directly reaching around 38000-40000.
Looking at Chart 2: the current situation at the 4-hour level shows a continuation structure within the yellow range, which is currently in the fourth wave rebound continuation and upward consolidation phase. Last night it touched around 74000, just hitting the upper boundary of the range (which we reminded about yesterday) and was resisted at the Fibonacci 0.382 position, falling back. The next movement will be a range-bound upward to near the yellow trend line before a sharp decline.
Therefore, in summary, the contract suggestion is to short near the upper boundary of the range and long near the lower boundary, with a stop-loss strategy for breakouts. In terms of spot trading, we are waiting for opportunities. There may be another black swan event in the first half of the year, and Bitcoin reaching around 40000 presents a significant opportunity.
(In the evening, we may conduct a review summary article on the analysis approach we have accurately grasped since the beginning of the bear market. Please pay attention and click the avatar to enter the chat room for daily reminders)
#BTC
#BTC走势分析
$BTC

#ETH
Ethereum is trading at 2315, currently hitting resistance at the upper trendline of a descending parallel channel + the midline of the 4-hour Bollinger Bands, let's go for a short.
Short Entry: 2318
Take Profit: 2266
Stop Loss: 2350
#ETH走势分析

#BTC
Bitcoin is hovering around the market price of 80300. It's been consolidating near the 80600 resistance over the past couple of days. Currently, I’m keeping an eye on the 80600+ resistance level, which is essentially the previous low point and can be seen as a critical boundary moving forward. Considering the current hourly stochastic indicator is in the overbought zone and turning downwards, along with the MACD and RSI showing a death cross, I believe this level is likely to be a tough nut to crack in the short term. I anticipate that the bearish flag structure will continue to play out, with the overall direction pointing downwards. The fifth wave drop needs to complete before we can talk about a normal bear market bottom logic; feel free to check out the related analysis from the day before yesterday.
Therefore, the strategy should primarily focus on shorting, and we should be cautious about chasing long positions. Near the 80600 level, we can initiate short positions. Yesterday, we also mentioned a short trade in the 80000-80500 range that yielded profits of about 800-900 points. Over the weekend, the market hasn’t been very volatile, with Bitcoin moving sideways, and while we can catch some altcoin movements, we need to be careful with altcoins starting next week!
#BTC走势分析 #AltcoinHotspots

#ETH
ETH is hovering around the $2290 mark, and I have to say, this latest move for ETH has been pretty weak 🐔. Will the next price action look like the chart below? I just can't resist adding to my position while in profit. 😇
#ETH走势分析 #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

#BTC
The current Bitcoin price action is pretty much in line with yesterday's analysis. After breaking below the lower boundary of the minor uptrend channel, the support around 79500 held strong without a solid breakdown. We've seen a couple of dips below that level, but the price has bounced back. The 1-hour MACD is showing a bullish crossover at the bottom, and the 4-hour RSI is in the oversold zone, indicating potential consolidation. So, in the short term, there might be a small bounce back. If we see a rebound near 80000-80500, I think it’s a good spot to go short.
#BTC走势分析

#BTC
Bitcoin is accelerating its drop and currently testing the lower boundary of a small ascending channel. It looks like there are signs of a breakdown; if it doesn't quickly recover, we might see a short-term drop following the trend line shown in the chart. Immediate support is around 79500.
#BTC走势分析 #ETH

[Is the Bitcoin bear market fourth wave rebound hitting a top? Is the bull return a false illusion creating a trap for the longs?]
Bitcoin is trading at 81000+.
First, let's check out Chart 1: Yesterday, Bitcoin surged to 82800+, breaking through the multiple resistance levels we previously discussed, especially the upper bound of the bearish flag pattern. You gotta hand it to the big players; that was a flawless accumulation move, given that the short ratio in the 79000-80000 range was too high, and the funding rates had been elevated for too long. Ultimately, this surge forced a short squeeze, pushing out a lot of bears who then flipped to bullish, thinking the bull market was back. But looking above, we see a dense area of trapped positions, so 82800+ might very well be the peak of this rebound. It's a potential false breakout designed to create the illusion of a bull return while denying the trapped positions any chance to exit. Yesterday, I speculated that the trading strategy was indeed clever; the current pullback to around 81000 has trapped quite a few bulls.
Chart 2: The weekly chart has been on a six-week uptrend. From my observations, this hasn't occurred in previous bear market rebounds. The price is currently facing resistance from the MA30 and 120-day moving averages, about to form a death cross. Additionally, the volume during these six weeks of rebound has been insufficient, with low-volume increases that are slow and lack strength. A true big movement should come with increased volume, so it feels like the market is being force-fed life; we're reaching extreme limits, in my opinion.
Finally, looking at Chart 3: In previous bear markets, there were at least five waves of decline followed by consolidation to gather enough chips before turning bullish again. I've analyzed the MA and EMA system trends for turning bullish and have consistently maintained the five-wave bearish decline pattern, which you can check back on. So, given the current trend, I believe we are at the peak of the fourth wave rebound consolidation because the bottom range of 60000-82800 has already rebounded over 40%. Normally, the prelude to a bull return requires a second dip to the bottom, allowing the big players to gather sufficient chips before a violent surge.
So, to summarize the analysis, I believe the likelihood of hitting a top this time is quite high. It's not advisable to chase longs, and the risk-reward ratio is low. Our short strategy this round has proven to be quite wise, as we executed a low-leverage, phased accumulation strategy. Personally, I've built positions three times, currently realizing some unrealized gains, and I was almost triggered to stop-loss at 83100, not to mention with high leverage.
Trading sometimes requires you to step back and observe; when others are fearful, be greedy; when others are greedy, be fearful. Don't let the emotions of others sway you.
#BTC

#btc
Bros, it looks like 82850 might be the top, right? Our stop loss at 83100 was almost hit, pretty risky, but luckily this low-leverage scaling strategy was smart, leaving enough room to reload.
This negative funding rate finally leveled out, and a lot of shorts got taken down; now it's balanced, and most shorts are either too scared to add to their positions or can't really do it. Bulls are hyped, riding the wave back, but could this be a trap for a fake breakout? I doubt the MA weekly resistance at 120 will be broken all at once!
#BTC走势分析 #ETH

【MicroStrategy went on a buying spree in April, scooping up nearly $3 billion in Bitcoin】
Wow! MicroStrategy went all-in in April, buying close to $3 billion in Bitcoin, no wonder the price has been so strong lately!
Total Holdings: 818,334 BTC
Total Cost: Approximately $6.181 billion
Average Cost: $75,537 / BTC
May 1–4: No buys (pause confirmed)
May 5: Q1 earnings report release
Starting the 2nd week of May: Expected to resume regular accumulation
How much more capital do they have to keep propping up the price? Is MicroStrategy a hidden black swan?
#BTC Bitcoin breaks above $80K #微策略募资支持比特币战略

【Bitcoin is facing multiple resistance levels, can it break through?】

The big coin is hovering around $80,200, finally reaching the range we've been discussing, $80,000-$81,000. It's hitting multiple strong resistance zones ahead: the neckline of previous lows + the upper boundary of a bear flag structure + the trendline of the ascending channel + the 180-day MA/EMA multiple pressure points. Can it break through the resistance?
We're sticking to our previous strategy; let's wait for a solid breakout before changing our approach.
Bitcoin breakout $80K#BTC走势分析
$BTC

#ETH
ETH is testing the upper trendline of a descending parallel channel along with the upper Bollinger Band. Is it time to short? Let's take a quick short at the current price, aiming for a take profit at 2255 and a stop loss at 2362. The risk-to-reward ratio looks solid.
#ETH Price Analysis

【Can Bitcoin Break Through the Bear Flag Structure and Return to a Bull Market?】
Bitcoin is trading at 78300+, and the recent market action has been a back-and-forth grind. The bulls are strong but not overwhelming, and the bears are weak but not nonexistent, making it overall tricky to execute trades. For short-term plays, it's crucial to take profits promptly; otherwise, gains can evaporate quickly.
Looking at the weekly chart (Chart 1): As mentioned earlier, the start of a bear market typically comes with EMA moving averages crossing from short-term to long-term, followed by a period of consolidation at the bottom before golden crosses signal a return to a bull market. The two patterns we've illustrated in the chart reflect this. Currently, the slope of the EMA is still quite steep downward, indicating we are far from the bottom consolidation phase where the whales accumulate enough coins. Moreover, the bear flag structure has yet to break, so chasing highs is still inadvisable.
Chart 2: Bitcoin remains within the bear flag structure, with the upper resistance zone still strong, comprising the previous horizontal neckline, the upper trend line of the bear flag, and the downward trend line of the rising channel, creating a formidable resistance area around 80000–81000, making a breakout challenging. The nearby resistance is around the previous high of 79500; this morning's pump couldn't hold and retraced. We can also see that after breaking below the lower trend line of the rising channel, it has attempted to rally back twice but failed to reclaim it. The support below can be found around the midline of the structure, in the 75000–75600 range.
Therefore, our strategy recommends primarily shorting at high levels. The current price has low risk-reward for chasing highs; we still suggest gradually accumulating short positions in the 79000–81000 range.
#BTC #BTC走势分析 $BTC

#btc

The big coin is priced at 78700+, currently in a second retest after the rising channel broke down. Support has turned into resistance—can we break through again? Keep an eye on the trendline position. I think this spot is a good place to short a hand and test the resistance.
#BTC走势分析

#BTC 【First rate cut expectations pushed back to Q3 2027】
Still a reminder, rate cuts aren't coming that soon. As long as there's no rate cut, the current market liquidity isn't enough to support a bull run; we’re still in a bear market structure.
#美联储会议 #ETH
$BTC

$ETH

#BTC #ETH
Bitcoin and Ethereum have both broken below the lower trend channel, increasing the risk.
$BTC
$ETH

【Bitcoin is facing serious risks, is there little time left for the bulls to escape?】
Bitcoin is currently trading around 77800. As mentioned in yesterday's post: at that time, Bitcoin was at the end of a small-scale converging triangle, and a breakout below the support of the ascending channel would continue to test the 80000 range. I also suggested shorting in the 79000-80500 range, and indeed, we got a short opportunity around 79500.
First, let's look at Chart 2: The weekly chart has been bullish for four consecutive weeks, but we can also see that the volume at the bottom is insufficient, proving that the rise is not strong; it's a tough upward move.
Now, looking at Chart 3: On the daily chart, the new low level around the neckline is a huge resistance, which we have also recently touched. Additionally, the stochastic oscillator has formed a bearish divergence in the overbought zone, and the MACD is showing signs of a potential death cross on the upper axis, indicating a need for some retracement and correction.
Finally, looking at Chart 4: On the 4-hour level, yesterday, we were supported by the lower boundary of the ascending channel. After breaking out of the converging triangle, we rebounded back to the previous high near 79500, but have since fallen back to the current position at the lower boundary of the channel. The candlestick formed a bearish engulfing pattern, indicating that the bulls are losing momentum. Whether the support at the lower boundary of the ascending channel can hold this time is very uncertain!
In summary, Bitcoin's current position is quite dangerous. We should continue to monitor the support line at the lower boundary of 77000. If it effectively breaks down, it will return to the structural starting point. In terms of strategy, we will continue with the previous approach, focusing on short positions.
#BTC #BTC走势分析
$BTC

[Bitcoin's small-scale convergence triangle is at its end, about to choose a direction for a big move]
Bitcoin is trading at 77300+, looking at Chart 1, we still see a bearish flag structure within an ascending channel. There’s a triple-layered strong resistance at the 80000-81000 zone, coming from the upper boundary of the bear flag structure, the upper boundary of the ascending channel, and the horizontal neckline of previous lows.
Now looking at Chart 2: We are at the end of an hourly convergence triangle oscillation near the lower boundary of the ascending channel, about to choose a direction. A big move is imminent. As predicted, there are two potential scenarios: if we break out of the convergence triangle area, we could see a push upward to the 79500-81000 zone; if we go down, first watch the structure’s lower boundary near 70000. If we break below that, we’ll prioritize a move down to around 70000, keeping an eye on the 77000 line.
So in terms of trading strategy, we suggest holding onto our mid-to-long term short positions from around 79000. For those currently flat, wait for direction: if we go up, you can start shorting gradually in the 79000-80500 range; if we break below the 77000 line without quickly reclaiming it, that’ll be a solid signal to short in line with the trend.
#BTC #BTC走势分析
$BTC

【Last chance for the bears to escape? Testing the upper trendline of the bearish flag pattern】
Bitcoin is trading at 78100+, and the trend remains in line with our analysis. Looking at the chart structure, it's clear we're near the upper trendline of a bearish flag pattern. Last night, it peaked at 79400+, hit the upper trendline, faced resistance, and pulled back. We also informed our mid-to-long term low-leverage short positions were fully loaded last night, with an average price close to 78600. The stop-loss is set around 83000. Today, the 78000 level is crucial—if we stay above it by tonight, we might see another upward push. If we close below, the bears will have a stronger advantage.
As we've been emphasizing lately, Bitcoin is likely to approach the upper trendline of the structure. As long as the bearish flag pattern holds, our view remains that it's a short rebound opportunity. So, with such a good structural upper trendline price last night, we definitely seized the moment, with a 3000-4000 point stop-loss aiming for a potential 20000 point profit range—pretty solid risk-reward. Trading is like this: daring to short against strong resistance and going long against strong support. Proper position management boosts your winning odds.
#BTC #BTC走势分析 $BTC

#BTC
The current market price for Bitcoin is around 78000. Yesterday we mentioned that if Bitcoin breaks through the 76600 level, it will likely push up to the 78000-80000 range, and the current trend is playing out as we expected. Looking at the lower timeframe structure, Bitcoin is still climbing within a minor ascending channel. Today it touched the previous high around 78500, so now we need to watch if this level can be effectively broken. If it does break, the resistance levels will be the upper boundary of the channel and the top of the bearish flag pattern, currently estimated between 79600-81000.
Therefore, in terms of strategy, we will continue with our approach: using low leverage, consider going long at 78000 and adding another position near 80000. If we break the structure, we will set a stop loss at 82600.
#BTC走势分析 $BTC