BH-加密皇

【The Bull Market Has Ended】
How has the market performed recently? The current price of Bitcoin is over 9600, and it has shown a trend of accelerated decline in the past few days. In Chart 1, we can see that Bitcoin has broken below the red trend line after more than 450 days of upward trend. Additionally, the recent incremental decline and the previous MACD divergence have not been corrected, indicating that the bull market has ended and the bear market has arrived. The next support level on the weekly chart is in the blue area below, between 7200-7800. Chart 2: On the daily chart, after breaking below the red trend line and the blue parallel area, there was a rebound followed by an accelerated decline, which is also an incremental decrease, so the recent rebound is estimated to be just a minor rebound after being oversold, and the downward trend must continue. #加密市场回调 #BTC #ETH

[What’s next for the market? 】
The current price of the pie is more than 29,800. Last night it hit 30,000 again and then fell back. It has hit 30,000 three times recently. We can see in Figure 1 below that at the weekly level, we use the blue line as the dividing line, which is also the dividing line between bulls and bears in the last round. We can see:
In the area above the dividing zone, the pie has gone through a cycle of nearly 500 days, rising to a maximum of more than 38,000 points.
The area below the dividing line, which is the bear market area, has fallen by more than 16,000 points, a drop of more than 50%. It has gone for about 530 days and has returned to a price of about 30,000, which is near the dividing line between bulls and bears.
Therefore, there is a particularly high pressure level along the dividing line. Can it be broken through this time? In fact, the current market liquidity is still relatively insufficient. Without relatively large narrative benefits (such as Bitcoin ETF) to bring large entry funds, the space is still relatively limited. Let’s look at Figure 2 again. The four-hour triangular convergence box also quickly moved out of the direction.
To sum up, in terms of operation, we still recommend as mentioned in the previous article: we have to wait and see near 31000 to see if we can effectively break through the upper bull-bear dividing line, and then break through 3.3w to stand firm. You cannot always expect to sell at the highest point in trading. In this round of rise, we have gained almost 5,000 points from 25,000+, which is still quite good.
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#BTC #xrp #ETH #etf

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$BTC $ETH

[The meme on Kuaishou tonight, I've got the scoop!]

The New Year has arrived, and recently even the big CX funds can't hold up:
1. Lafite Protocol (12.22 crash): An on-chain funding scheme with gold standard hype, lacking a bubble elimination mechanism, and a run triggered by large holders exiting, suspected to be manipulated by Southeast Asian scam groups.
2. Eternal Protocol: A Lafite imitation fund, lacking operational planning, insufficient new funds leading to a break in the funding chain, and the operators directly fleeing.
3. ARK Ark (11.5 crash): Ponzi structure token, project team cashing out through backdoor exceeding 50 million USD, token drop over 25% in 30 days, and a single-day crash of 50% on 12.9.
4. Bofa BF (12.9 crash): A fixed rebate funding scheme, delaying withdrawals under the pretext of settlement control, with core personnel fleeing to Southeast Asia after embezzling billions.
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$BTC $ETH

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#CHZ
1. The increase in December was nearly 24%, with the core driver being the update of the Chiliz chain DeFi protocol and activities from the MEXC exchange, leading to a surge in demand and trading volume.
2. The 2026 World Cup in the US, Canada, and Mexico is a long-term positive factor; historical events have previously driven CHZ to rise significantly, and the official fan system development has been initiated, with speculation likely to start 2-3 months before the event.
3. Risk points: In Q3 2025, $42 million CHZ will be unlocked; historically, there has been a pattern of "rising before the event, falling at the start," so be cautious of selling pressure.
$CHZ

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2025.12.21

1. Coinbase launches US stock trading business, supporting USDC direct settlement, planning 24/7 trading, and partnering with Kalshi to launch a prediction market.
2. Global crypto regulation diverges: The US FDIC allows banks to independently participate in crypto business, the EU MiCA bill is fully implemented, and China explores a 'classified governance' model alongside the digital yuan.
3. Bingx focuses on AI innovation in 2025, launching AI trading assistants, strategy tools, and other products, establishing a $150 million security fund, with users reaching 40 million.
4. The Litecoin Foundation announces that Litewallet will cease operations on December 31, with OM tokens needing to be migrated to the MANTRA Chain mainnet by January 15, 2026.
5. Crypto hedge funds perform poorly in 2025, with directional funds down 2.5%, altcoin strategy funds retracting 23%, and only market-neutral funds gaining 14.4%.
6. Huawei secures the Huawei pi domain with 185,000 Pi coins, becoming one of the first Fortune 500 companies to join the PiNetwork public chain, laying out its Web3 ecosystem.
7. Ripple, Circle, and three other crypto companies obtain licenses from the US National Trust Bank, further clarifying the compliance framework for stablecoin issuance.
8. Crypto bank Anchorage acquires Securitize's wealth management division, expanding regulated custody and financial consulting services for registered investment advisors.
$BTC $ETH

2025 Major Global Economies' Interest Rate Hikes and Cuts Policy:

1. United States: Three rounds of interest rate cuts within the year, with the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%. This round of easing has resulted in a cumulative cut of 175 basis points, and the pace of cuts will significantly slow down in 2026.
2. Japan: The only developed economy to raise interest rates, with two rate hikes this year, raising rates to 0.75% in December to combat high inflation.
3. United Kingdom: Six interest rate cuts within the year, with the December rate dropped to 3.75%. This round of easing is nearing its end.
4. Eurozone: Maintaining the interest rate at 2.0% since June, with inflation close to the target and an upward adjustment in economic growth expectations, likely to start raising rates subsequently.
5. Australia: After three rounds of rate cuts at the beginning of the year, the rate stabilized at 3.60%, with inflation rebounding beyond expectations, and policy may shift from cuts to hikes.
6. Canada: Maintaining the benchmark interest rate at 2.25%, with strong economic and employment data, leading to strong expectations for rate hikes.
7. Emerging Economies: Many continue with easing, with Thailand, Chile, and Mexico synchronously cutting rates; Russia's rate cut has narrowed; Indonesia and Colombia maintain their rates unchanged.
$BTC $ETH

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【Crypto Circle Early Knowledge December 19】
1. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates to 0.75% (a 30-year high), triggering a synchronized drop in the cryptocurrency market due to the unwinding of yen arbitrage trades 📉#JapanRateHike #加密流动性
2. The U.S. Digital Asset Market Structure Bill has been delayed until 2026, exacerbating regulatory vacuum and market wait-and-see sentiment 😶#USCryptoRegulation #法案延期
3. Bitwise submitted an application for a Sui ETF, institutions are starting to increase their positions in non-BTC/ETH public chain tracks 🚀#CryptoETF #Sui
4. Binance plans to return to the U.S.; CZ may reduce his holdings to comply with regulations and plans to partner with traditional financial giants 🤝#Binance #合规进展
5. The People's Bank of China has clarified that stablecoins are virtual currencies, continuing to crack down on related illegal financial activities ⚠️#StablecoinRegulation #FinancialSecurity
6. Uniswap's proposal to burn 100 million UNI tokens is advancing, and the fee switch activation is on the agenda 🔥
7. Coinbase launched 24/7 trading for U.S. stocks, supporting direct settlement in USDC, bridging traditional finance and crypto 📊#Coinbase #跨界金融
8. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has dropped to 11 (extreme fear), historical data indicates a near rebound point 📉#MarketSentiment #FearGreedIndex
9. The number of pending U.S. crypto ETF approvals has reached 126, with BTC (21), XRP (10), and SOL (9) leading the pack 📈

【Brother Ma's ETH Trading Record for the Past Month】

My brother Ma has been using high leverage for long positions, continuing to increase his position even with a loss of 23 million
Core Logic: Throughout, he steadfastly maintained a 25x high leverage long position in ETH, experiencing multiple rounds of liquidation with floating losses exceeding 90%, yet repeatedly adding to his position. As of December 18, the cumulative loss exceeded 23 million USD, and his current position is still at risk of liquidation.

Late November: Firmly bullish, short-term profit realization from increased positions

- November 24-25: Deposited 1 million USDC to Hyperliquid, opened a new long position in ETH worth 13.35 million USD (opening price 2883 USD), liquidation price 2716 USD, with short-term floating profits of 280,000 USD.
- Earlier in early November, due to a liquidation loss of 15 million USD from a 25x long position, the account balance once dropped to only 16,771 USD, later re-entering the market with a small amount of funds.

Early December: Profit giveback, two rounds of liquidation triggered profit evaporation

- Early to mid-December: Longed with 500,000 USD from a rolling position at 2840 USD, when ETH rose to 3200 USD, profits reached 3.34 million USD, but the liquidation price was simultaneously raised to 3000 USD.
- December 6: ETH retraced and fell below 3000 USD, triggering two liquidations; the position value plummeted from 3.34 million USD to 730,000 USD, with profits essentially evaporated, and the remaining position was only 42 USD away from the liquidation price.

Mid-December: Repeatedly increasing and decreasing positions, liquidation risk remains high

- December 13: Added 200,000 USD in margin, increased the 25x long position to 9.5 million USD, opening price 3212.48 USD, liquidation price 3022.71 USD (close to market price).
- December 14: Reduced position by 786 ETH, remaining 3144 ETH (9.69 million USD), liquidation price 3042.74 USD.
- December 15: Two liquidations in one day—ETH dipped to 3033 USD in the morning, losing 110,000 USD; in the afternoon, continued to increase the position by 300 ETH to 3750 ETH (1.182 million USD), then reduced by 628.8 ETH, ultimately holding 2515.2 ETH (769,000 USD), with floating losses of 330,000 USD, liquidation price 3025.32 USD, and account funds remaining only 270,000 USD.
- December 16: Current price of ETH is 2910 USD, holding 400 ETH long position with floating losses exceeding 210%, liquidation price 2900.1 USD, only less than 10 USD away from the market price, on the brink of liquidation.

Late December: Counter-trend increase, cumulative losses exceed 23 million

- December 17: Further deposited 1.1997 million USDC to supplement margin, increased the 25x ETH long position to 4050 ETH (approximately 1.19 million USD), simultaneously opened new long positions in BTC (40x) and HYPE (10x), cumulative losses officially exceeded 23 million USD, latest liquidation price 2694 USD.
$ETH

$BTC Bitcoin is currently priced around 86500. Looking at the chart: last night there was a sudden explosive rebound to the upper band of the 4-hour Bollinger Bands and was blocked by the arc-shaped top, quickly falling back down. This is indeed a trap for many who chased after it. The view remains the same, waiting for the position near 80000.
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#BTC