Aston在下不求
I post critical crypto market data and my most reliable trade signals—always with charts & real examples. 關注我將不定期得到幣圈總體經濟數據重要數據，也將把我勝率高的進場出場點位告訴大家有圖有實盤。
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The Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle Is Dead! Bitwise CIO: The Crypto Market Has Entered a Decade-Long Endurance Phase
#BTC☀️
The three key forces that once drove Bitcoin’s four-year cycle have significantly weakened. With institutional investors entering the market and regulatory frameworks becoming more robust, the crypto market is moving into a decade-long endurance phase, requiring investors to develop new mental models to navigate future trends.
#btc走勢
Over the past few weeks, in meetings with institutional investors, the question I’ve been asked most often is: Does Bitcoin’s four-year cycle still have any relevance?
The so-called four-year cycle refers to the historical pattern in which Bitcoin experienced three years of gains followed by a sharp decline in the fourth year.
This question is critical, because under four-year-cycle logic, next year would be a difficult one for Bitcoin—and for the broader crypto market as a whole.
#
While I cannot precisely predict the price trajectory of crypto assets next year, I believe it is unwise to blindly assume that the four-year cycle will mechanically repeat itself.
After all, the four-year cycle is not some ironclad law of nature carved into stone by a “crypto god.” It emerged from the interaction of three specific driving forces:
Bitcoin halving events: The mining reward on the Bitcoin blockchain is cut in half roughly every four years.
Interest-rate cycles: The sharp rises in interest rates in 2018 and 2022 both acted as major catalysts for crypto market downturns.
Boom-and-bust market dynamics: Every major crypto crash year—2014, 2018, and 2022—followed an exceptionally strong rally. For example, Bitcoin surged 5,530% in 2013, 1,349% in 2017, and 57% in 2021. During periods of market euphoria, fraud and speculative bubbles tend to proliferate, and when those bubbles burst—such as the regulatory crackdown on ICOs in 2018 or the collapse of the FTX exchange in 2022—they directly triggered sharp market sell-offs in the same year.$BTC
#BTC☀️
The three key forces that once drove Bitcoin’s four-year cycle have significantly weakened. With institutional investors entering the market and regulatory frameworks becoming more robust, the crypto market is moving into a decade-long endurance phase, requiring investors to develop new mental models to navigate future trends.
#btc走勢
Over the past few weeks, in meetings with institutional investors, the question I’ve been asked most often is: Does Bitcoin’s four-year cycle still have any relevance?
The so-called four-year cycle refers to the historical pattern in which Bitcoin experienced three years of gains followed by a sharp decline in the fourth year.
This question is critical, because under four-year-cycle logic, next year would be a difficult one for Bitcoin—and for the broader crypto market as a whole.
#
While I cannot precisely predict the price trajectory of crypto assets next year, I believe it is unwise to blindly assume that the four-year cycle will mechanically repeat itself.
After all, the four-year cycle is not some ironclad law of nature carved into stone by a “crypto god.” It emerged from the interaction of three specific driving forces:
Bitcoin halving events: The mining reward on the Bitcoin blockchain is cut in half roughly every four years.
Interest-rate cycles: The sharp rises in interest rates in 2018 and 2022 both acted as major catalysts for crypto market downturns.
Boom-and-bust market dynamics: Every major crypto crash year—2014, 2018, and 2022—followed an exceptionally strong rally. For example, Bitcoin surged 5,530% in 2013, 1,349% in 2017, and 57% in 2021. During periods of market euphoria, fraud and speculative bubbles tend to proliferate, and when those bubbles burst—such as the regulatory crackdown on ICOs in 2018 or the collapse of the FTX exchange in 2022—they directly triggered sharp market sell-offs in the same year.$BTC
All assets: enjoying the traditional Christmas rally
Bitcoin: never heard of it
Bitcoin: never heard of it
The best live room, everyone come!
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🎙️ 币安生态建设、知识普及、经验交流、防诈避坑！💗💗
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04 h 32 m 27 s
35.8k
136
The best live room
Are you all night owls$BTC $BNB
The best live room
钻石老三
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[Ended] 🎙️ 币安涨幅榜一大哥NOM实盘跟踪
You're sending too fast, please wait a moment and try again
TOGETHER LISTEN😀
Frenzy 110
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[Ended] 🎙️ let's grow together on crypto 💕
You're sending too fast, please wait a moment and try again
788
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🎙️ 来财 来财 恭喜发财
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02 h 39 m 39 s
3.4k
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🎙️ 2026加密风口！这类币一定要拿稳
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03 h 22 m 02 s
13k
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🎙️ Cherry全球会客厅｜怎么在数字货币板块 真正布局 回归财富的本质
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04 h 19 m 25 s
8.9k
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Expert conversation
AB Kuai Dong
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Binance founder CZ's latest insights at Davos:
1. In the crypto space, the only truly validated successful business tracks are exchanges and stablecoins, both of which have already scaled massively.
2. He sees three promising directions for the future: asset tokenization, payments, and artificial intelligence.
3. In reality, no one uses cryptocurrency for payments, but traditional payment methods can settle using cryptocurrency in the background, with merchants ultimately receiving fiat currency.
4. National-level promotion of asset tokenization can better release the financial value of assets.
5. Cryptocurrency will become the native currency for AI agents; in the future, when AI has the ability to execute and make payments autonomously, its transaction activities will be completed based on the cryptocurrency system.
1. In the crypto space, the only truly validated successful business tracks are exchanges and stablecoins, both of which have already scaled massively.
2. He sees three promising directions for the future: asset tokenization, payments, and artificial intelligence.
3. In reality, no one uses cryptocurrency for payments, but traditional payment methods can settle using cryptocurrency in the background, with merchants ultimately receiving fiat currency.
4. National-level promotion of asset tokenization can better release the financial value of assets.
5. Cryptocurrency will become the native currency for AI agents; in the future, when AI has the ability to execute and make payments autonomously, its transaction activities will be completed based on the cryptocurrency system.
888
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🎙️ 币安生态建设、知识普及、经验交流、防诈避坑！💗💗
End
04 h 21 m 07 s
34.7k
126
🎙️ 唱聊meme飞火箭🚀 To the moon!
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05 h 59 m 59 s
28.9k
162
🎙️ Cherry全球会客厅｜BSC chain 接下来会有多少爆发性的生态出场呢 2026最值得聚焦的点在哪
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05 h 08 m 20 s
24.9k
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888
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🎙️ 跟我反着买，别墅靠大海，恭喜发财~
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03 h 08 m 23 s
9.7k
5
I lived in Vietnam using only USDT for 30 days: success rate 97.17%
Vietnam's stablecoin payments have covered 97.17% of daily scenarios (real-world testing)
A researcher conducted a 30-day stablecoin payment experiment in Vietnam, spanning 5 cities and 106 consumption scenarios, discovering that stablecoins have covered 97.17% of local daily consumption. A stablecoin experiment that took place in Vietnam has just concluded. This experiment aimed to verify a proposition that has been mentioned countless times: can stablecoins truly overcome the 'last mile' of payment, replace national-level products like Alipay, and evolve into a genuinely global mainstream payment method? Without investigation, there is no right to speak. More real-world cases are needed to substantiate or refute whether stablecoins can truly take root in people's livelihoods and whether they can replace the old fiat currency system.
A researcher conducted a 30-day stablecoin payment experiment in Vietnam, spanning 5 cities and 106 consumption scenarios, discovering that stablecoins have covered 97.17% of local daily consumption. A stablecoin experiment that took place in Vietnam has just concluded. This experiment aimed to verify a proposition that has been mentioned countless times: can stablecoins truly overcome the 'last mile' of payment, replace national-level products like Alipay, and evolve into a genuinely global mainstream payment method? Without investigation, there is no right to speak. More real-world cases are needed to substantiate or refute whether stablecoins can truly take root in people's livelihoods and whether they can replace the old fiat currency system.
🎙️ news & 帶單
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02 h 48 m 14 s
10.1k
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