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BTC has been hovering around $77K tonight, barely moving in the last 24 hours. But the outside world is pretty lively. Let's start with the war. The WSJ reports that the U.S. is preparing to extend the blockade of Iranian ports, and Trump posted an AI-generated image of himself with a gun on Truth Social, telling Iran to 'get smart soon.' Brent crude has already breached $115, and WTI is up to $103—combined with the UAE announcing its exit from OPEC, the energy sector is throwing some heavy punches. The Strait of Hormuz is basically still in a state of paralysis, with no signs of easing in the short term. Now onto the macro side. The biggest news today is the Fed interest rate decision, which is likely to keep the range at 3.5%-3.75%. But the key point is that this could very well be Powell's last press conference as chair—Kevin Warsh is set to take over soon. Inflation has bounced back to 3.3% due to the war, but employment is also softening, leaving the Fed in a bind. The leadership change will bring uncertainty, and the market is watching closely. In the crypto space, Robinhood's earnings report shows a 47% quarter-over-quarter drop in crypto revenue, sending the stock price tumbling. Pump.fun burned $370 million for a buyback plan. Eric Trump and Forbes are having a public spat over American Bitcoin. The overall sentiment seems to be: war, inflation, and a change at the Fed—a triple whammy that isn't too friendly to risk assets. BTC lacks the ammo for a short-term breakout, but there is buying interest around $75K. I'm leaning cautious, thinking it will likely linger in the $75K-$78K range for a while, showing weak fluctuations with a slightly higher probability of testing downward. That said, if there’s any sudden ceasefire news, oil prices might plummet, giving BTC a chance for a bounce. Tonight, eyes are on the tone from the Fed's press conference.
$WLD This coin, as soon as it sees a little pump, the project team starts unloading their bags. It's always the same, no exceptions. $PUMP and $HYPE The team is using a large chunk of their revenues to buy back tokens in the secondary market. When you compare these moves, the picture becomes clear. If a project team isn’t even willing to hold their own tokens, why should retail investors hold them? Do you really want to wait until the team bails out completely, and then you end up being the biggest bagholder? HYPEUSDT Perpetual
Investing isn't that hard; the key is finding solid projects. In our crypto space, you don't even have to hunt for the good ones yourself. The top 20 cryptocurrencies by market cap, those are the assets that have been voted in by funds and consensus. Be patient and wait for the dip to buy in at a price you like, then hold on to your bags until you hit your target price. Don't make unnecessary moves in between, don't get caught up in grand narratives, and steer clear of too much short-term news; those aren't worth your time and aren't the main issues. Making money is simpler than most people think. The real challenge is that no one wants to get rich slowly.
$FIL This coin has a circulating supply (inflation) that increased by 3,607,645 FIL in the last 10 days (averaging 360,000 FIL per day; with block rewards of 85,235 FIL, the current max circulating supply is: 709,532,938). With such a rapid dilution rate, the fact that this coin isn't dipping at this stage is already a win. If you absolutely have to buy this coin, wait until September 2026 to do so, betting on its potential after October 14, 2026. At that point, the daily dilution will drop to 60,000, which means a 6x deflation rate. By then, the total circulating supply will also exceed 40%. If we're lucky and there's an ecosystem rollout, there might still be a bit of speculative upside.
This week's altcoin watchlist, let's see which projects are still making moves $AAVE: Aave's governance vote passed, and all revenue will be redirected to the DAO treasury. The KelpDAO rsETH exploit (April 19) caused a 20% drop, leading to bad debts of $177 million to $200 million. $LINK: About 19 million LINK tokens (around $165 million) will unlock this week on exchanges. The SIX stock data partnership and Coinbase DataLink integration are boosting the adoption of RWA. $AVAX: Bitwise's spot AVAX ETF (BAVA) launched on the NYSE, with a staking yield of 5.4%. CME Group's Avalanche futures are set to launch in May. TAO: The Covenant AI subnet team collectively resigned on April 11, citing excessive control by the co-founder. Grayscale and Bitwise have submitted TAO ETF applications—expected decisions from the SEC in August. UNI: A brand new developer platform equipped with AI tools has gone live on 18 blockchains. Daily trading volume exceeds $2B, nearing a yearly high. ZRO: About 25.71 million tokens will unlock from April 20 to 21 (approximately $40.4 million, making up 5.34% of circulating supply). FET: Currently, 2.7 million autonomous agents are running on decentralized infrastructure. This week, whales accumulated 100 million FET tokens. ETH: The Glamsterdam upgrade is expected to be completed in the first half of 2026. Vitalik showcased 4-5 years of zero-knowledge proofs and verification (ZK-EVM) and a post-quantum roadmap at the Hong Kong Web3 Carnival. XRO: The CLARITY Act is about to be submitted to the Senate Banking Committee for review, possibly being legislated as a non-securities commodity. ETF inflows have surpassed $1.5 billion. KAITO: About 17.6 million tokens will unlock on April 20 (about 4.93% of the supply). ADA: The Voltaire governance body approved the integration of the Pyth oracle and tier-one stablecoin financing. TRUMP: The Mar-a-Lago holdings event is scheduled for April 25. The holdings of the top 100 addresses increased by 2.47% in 7 days. AAVE exploit and ZRO unlock are the two highest-risk events to watch early this week. $BTC $ETH $BNB
The Decline of the Shanzhai Phase 3: The Story of the Chinese Coin Harvest $币安人生
On April 11th, $0.1142, with a market cap of $113 million, rose over 36% in 24 hours. But how many times has this risen from the dead? On April 8th, CZ's English autobiography 'The Binance Life' was released, causing a wave; on April 11th, the market cap broke 100 million, creating another wave. There are major problems behind this: the official said the circulating supply is 1 billion coins, but 816 million coins are held in exchanges, raising suspicions that insiders are controlling the market, significantly affecting actual liquidity. The price fluctuations depend entirely on how well CZ's book sells; coins are just emotional voting machines. $我踏马来了
On April 8th, it hovered around $0.0087, with a market cap of $8.2 million, rising 15% in 24 hours. The hype has passed — He Yi's '2026 I'm Coming' was a thing from January, and the day Binance Alpha rose 800% was three months ago. Now all the contracts that should have been launched on various exchanges have been, but the price just can't rise. Playing with memes is fun for a moment, but it turns into a dead silence. $龙虾
On April 8th, the market cap was $8.82 million, rising 22% in 24 hours. Bitget, Gate, and Binance perpetual contracts have all launched, but the price dropped from a high of $0.0268 to around $0.0067, a decrease of 75%. The hype around OpenClaw has already cooled off, and no one is mentioning AI narratives anymore. After going around the exchanges, the retail investors didn't catch it. The Binance life relies on CZ's book rising from the dead repeatedly; I’m here and it’s gone cold, and the lobster has dropped 75%. The fate of the Chinese coin all depends on whether CZ or He Yi speaks up. Look forward to the market👇
The Vanishing Shanzhai Episode 2: Trump Edition $TRUMP
Peak $75, now $2.88, down 96%. Retail investors with nearly 2 million wallets lost over $4.3 billion, insiders profited over $600 million. There are addresses that bought $1.09 million, profiting after dispersing. Allegations point to a conspiracy of "channeling funds to the president." Presidential coin, presidential harvest. $MELANIA Peak $13.05, now $0.11, down 99%. The token was issued two days after TRUMP went live, spiking to a peak in one day before crashing. Market cap shrank from $1.73 billion to $164 million. Retail investors with nearly 2 million wallets lost over $4.3 billion. The First Lady's coin, a life-and-death issue for retail investors. $WLFI
Peak $0.32, now $0.08, down 75%. Total supply 100 billion, 75% still locked. The team mortgaged 5 billion coins to borrow $75 million, with over $40 million flowing to Coinbase Prime. Early investors have already filed lawsuits. DeFi has become centralized exit scams. TRUMP, MELANIA, WLFI, one presidential coin, one first lady coin, one family DeFi. Insiders cashing out, retail investors losing $4.3 billion; chasing after tokens, crashing 99% in one day; locked collateral, investors defending their rights. Coins of political figures, harvesting more ruthlessly than anyone else. Bearish outlook 👇
The Disappearing Shan Zhai Issue 1: The Old Antique Coin Edition $ZEC
Zcash's privacy coin, historical peak of 5941.8 USD (launched on the first day in 2016), now at 370 USD, a drop of 95%. A more reasonable comparison is: it reached 748 USD in November 2025, and has now dropped 66% from that peak. In early 2026, internal conflicts within the team led to the entire core development team being 'presumed dismissed', subsequently splitting off and leaving ecological fragments. The privacy coin sector has already been besieged by regulation, ZEC is still 'optional privacy', pleasing no one. The technical ancestor, a living fossil of the sector. $DASH
Dash, focusing on 'instant transactions + master node network'. Historical peak of 1125 USD (end of 2017), now around 37 USD, a drop of 97%. Dash is also undergoing compliance transformation, developing Dash Platform and DPNS (Dash Platform Name Service). However, the payment sector has long been taken over by stablecoins and L2, and aside from occasionally being boosted by the 'privacy coin' concept, DASH is basically unused. Once the king of payments, now a pawn in payments. $ZEN
Horizen, focusing on 'sidechains + privacy'. Historical peak of 165.92 USD (May 2021), now at 5.6 USD, a drop of 96%. It was once the most technically complete among privacy coins—its sidechain architecture could support various application chains. But ZEN has also not kept up with the narratives of L2 and ZK, where technical leadership turned into self-indulgent technology. The framework of sidechains, the uselessness of public chains. Their common point is: the demand for privacy has always existed, but the privacy coin sector has been discredited. Regulatory crackdowns, high compliance costs, and users prefer to use mixers rather than touch these old coins. It's not that privacy lacks value; it's that old privacy coins are worthless now. Bullish on the market ahead.
Wow, Trump has called for a ceasefire Trump has called for a ceasefire Wow, I just went to the bathroom for a moment and didn't look at my phone When I came back, I found that the whole world was surging Then I saw that Trump announced a ceasefire for 5 days. Wow, did President Trump overdo it? It's like playing house with kids One moment they are choking each other, and the next they are being all sweet to each other.
The market has actually given a very clear signal. When everyone is discussing altcoins, it is often the late stage of the market; And when the term "altcoin season" is hardly mentioned by anyone, it is often the real starting point. The current data is quite interesting: 📉 The discussion volume of altcoin season has dropped to a two-year low 📉 Market sentiment is extremely cooled 📉 Most people have started to focus only on BTC But historically, before every significant altcoin market surge, the market has always been in this state: Quiet, desolate, and no one cares. The real big opportunities are often not in trending topics, but slowly brewing when no one is paying attention. Some potential ecosystems and projects that I have been closely tracking recently, funds and developers are actually quietly flowing back. The next round of altcoin narratives is likely to start from here. If you want to lay low in advance together, feel free to chat.👀
$BEAT Crazy data, cold reality. The market is under huge selling pressure, can the only rising UAI continue to lead? Please keep a close eye on the market, the situation is changing dramatically. Do you need me to further analyze the market of these assets #GoldSilverOilSurge #IranConfirmsKhameneiIsDead #AnthropicUSGovClash #BlockAILayoffs #BitcoinGoogleSearchesSurge
$BEAT Crazy data, cold reality. The market is under huge selling pressure, can the only rising UAI continue to lead? Please keep a close eye on the market, the situation is changing dramatically. Do you need me to further analyze the market of these assets #GoldSilverOilSurge #IranConfirmsKhameneiIsDead #AnthropicUSGovClash #BlockAILayoffs #BitcoinGoogleSearchesSurge
U.S. Central Command Commander, Admiral Brad Cooper, sent this morale-boosting letter to approximately 50,000 U.S. military personnel directly involved in operations against Iran.
United States Central Command February 28, 2026 Commander
To the outstanding sons and daughters of America deployed across the Middle East:
By order of the President of the United States, we are about to embark on a mission of profound significance. The time for preparation is over. The moment for action has arrived.
As we shift from deterrence to proactive combat, I write to tell you how honored I am to serve alongside you—the most exceptional active-duty soldiers, sailors, Marines, pilots, space service members, and Coast Guardsmen on the planet.
Some of you are stationed in the Middle East. Many have received short-notice orders for urgent deployment overseas. Others have had their deployment extended due to this critical mission. You represent the most powerful and lethal fighting force in history. You all selflessly serve our great nation, making us incredibly proud.
Since 1979, the Iranian regime has killed and harmed thousands of Americans, and they continue to threaten Americans and our allies today. With your courage and resilience, you will change the course of human history.
My guidance to you is simple:
• Remain relentlessly lethal. In the flames of conflict, remember who you are. Let your conduct be as precise and professional as your aim.
• Take care of your comrades. The brothers and sisters at your flanks, in front of you, and at six o'clock are your guardian angels. You must also be their guardian angels.
• Steady your resolve. Combat is inherently chaotic. The next hours, days, and even weeks will test you. There will be noise and chaos. Return to your training. It is the best in the world.
You are the shield of the free world, and today, you are its sharpest sword.
As the eyes of the world focus on us, please stay safe, and may God bless (GODSPEED).
Brad Cooper $NVDAon $AAPLon $MSFTon #美国撤离中东公民 #X移除加密禁令 #贵金原油价格飙升
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