Daily book
1 Following
28 Followers
33 Liked
5 Shared
Posts
Classic risk-off move during the #FOMC speech and data.
If you see the structure on #Bitcoin , and looking at it technically, there's no breakdown of the lower timeframe uptrend.
It sustains.
I do expect that we'll see it continue to go up in May going into the next FOMC event as there will be a lot of hype and expectations with the new chairman.
If you see the structure on #Bitcoin , and looking at it technically, there's no breakdown of the lower timeframe uptrend.
It sustains.
I do expect that we'll see it continue to go up in May going into the next FOMC event as there will be a lot of hype and expectations with the new chairman.
#Bitcoin is at its capitulation point.
Eleven indicators are signaling that we're at the best opportunity to buy the asset in the last five years.
The last time all these signals flashed was Q4 2022.
That also resonates with the current market sentiment, where nobody is interested in buying into this asset class.
That's usually the best moment to be doing so.
However, the current perpetual funding rate remains super negative.
On an annualized basis: 5%—this means shorts are paying longs.
Doesn't happen that often, as you can see, and quite often, there's a strong rally afterward.
The blue line is the 3-month futures basis: it's currently at 2-3%, the lowest since Q4 2022.
The last two times these metrics capitulated:
- March 2020 - COVID crash
- November 2022 - FTX crash
What this signals:
- There are not many leveraged longs left to be liquidated in the markets.
- Everyone who wanted to sell has sold.
That remains a spot-driven market without forced sellers, and that's what we can see in the recent inflow to the ETF: $1.5 billion since the 13th of April.
The higher the price moves, the more likely shorts are to be liquidated, and there are still a lot left, given the current funding rate status.
Essentially, the markets are the exact opposite of what they were prior to the crash, which means that I think that it won't last long from here.
Eleven indicators are signaling that we're at the best opportunity to buy the asset in the last five years.
The last time all these signals flashed was Q4 2022.
That also resonates with the current market sentiment, where nobody is interested in buying into this asset class.
That's usually the best moment to be doing so.
However, the current perpetual funding rate remains super negative.
On an annualized basis: 5%—this means shorts are paying longs.
Doesn't happen that often, as you can see, and quite often, there's a strong rally afterward.
The blue line is the 3-month futures basis: it's currently at 2-3%, the lowest since Q4 2022.
The last two times these metrics capitulated:
- March 2020 - COVID crash
- November 2022 - FTX crash
What this signals:
- There are not many leveraged longs left to be liquidated in the markets.
- Everyone who wanted to sell has sold.
That remains a spot-driven market without forced sellers, and that's what we can see in the recent inflow to the ETF: $1.5 billion since the 13th of April.
The higher the price moves, the more likely shorts are to be liquidated, and there are still a lot left, given the current funding rate status.
Essentially, the markets are the exact opposite of what they were prior to the crash, which means that I think that it won't last long from here.
The upward price pattern remains the same for $ETH .
It's a matter of when this breaks upwards and not if, in my opinion.
Structure remains intact, and multiple resistance tests have failed to break through, suggesting a breakout is looming.
It's a matter of when this breaks upwards and not if, in my opinion.
Structure remains intact, and multiple resistance tests have failed to break through, suggesting a breakout is looming.
There we go, #Bitcoin bouncing back upwards.
#FOMC today, #GDP tomorrow.
Lots of important events are coming up, and markets usually fall ahead of them.
The bounce is strong, and it signals more upside from here.
On lower timeframes, we see higher lows and higher highs, and I remain with the theory that $85-88K is the area to target in May for #Bitcoin
#FOMC today, #GDP tomorrow.
Lots of important events are coming up, and markets usually fall ahead of them.
The bounce is strong, and it signals more upside from here.
On lower timeframes, we see higher lows and higher highs, and I remain with the theory that $85-88K is the area to target in May for #Bitcoin
Just a normal correction on the markets pre-FOMC, which is expectable for #Bitcoin .
It almost always happens prior to the event, as there's still a lot of fear for FED policies from the markets.
I do think that this correction ends prior to the actual #FOMC meeting and, as long as #Bitcoin stays above $73K, there's probably nothing to worry and it's on route for higher highs.
It almost always happens prior to the event, as there's still a lot of fear for FED policies from the markets.
I do think that this correction ends prior to the actual #FOMC meeting and, as long as #Bitcoin stays above $73K, there's probably nothing to worry and it's on route for higher highs.
$ARB
keeps running upwards and there are multiple signs for continuation.
Even it has a correction of 10-20%, it's not worrysome, it's actually just a natural mid-trend correction and going to continue running from here.
I think that 'buy-the-dip' applies to this one for the foreseeable future, as #Altcoin runs tend to be 3-6 months and, most likely, the first one has just started.
keeps running upwards and there are multiple signs for continuation.
Even it has a correction of 10-20%, it's not worrysome, it's actually just a natural mid-trend correction and going to continue running from here.
I think that 'buy-the-dip' applies to this one for the foreseeable future, as #Altcoin runs tend to be 3-6 months and, most likely, the first one has just started.
I keep repeating the crucial levels for $ETH .
Unfortunately, it broke down, which means that there's no continuation of the uptrend, yet.
As long as it stays below 0.032 $BTC , I'm not interested until I see a clear bottoming formation or when it tests 0.026.
The latter is a higher timeframe support area, which I find important to monitor for long-term positions.
The bottom of $ETH was marked in April of '25.
Unfortunately, it broke down, which means that there's no continuation of the uptrend, yet.
As long as it stays below 0.032 $BTC , I'm not interested until I see a clear bottoming formation or when it tests 0.026.
The latter is a higher timeframe support area, which I find important to monitor for long-term positions.
The bottom of $ETH was marked in April of '25.
#Bitcoin has hit the ultimate accumulation trigger in this cycle.
It doesn't hit this trigger that often, but when it does, it gives a generational opportunity.
In previous cycles, these levels were hit at the actual bear market bottoms.
After 2018: +400% in 2 years
After 2020: +1300% in 2 years
After 2022: +400% in 2 years
It's very likely that we'll be having the same pattern repeat during this cycle, however, at the actual moment of the opportunity, nobody seems to be interested in the asset.
The next bear market bottom were we'll be flashing this signal again will likely be at $150-200K.
It doesn't hit this trigger that often, but when it does, it gives a generational opportunity.
In previous cycles, these levels were hit at the actual bear market bottoms.
After 2018: +400% in 2 years
After 2020: +1300% in 2 years
After 2022: +400% in 2 years
It's very likely that we'll be having the same pattern repeat during this cycle, however, at the actual moment of the opportunity, nobody seems to be interested in the asset.
The next bear market bottom were we'll be flashing this signal again will likely be at $150-200K.
Such a massive crash on $BTC earlier.
I'm kidding.
The markets are still shaping up for more upside, and it's still holding crucial levels. I think that we'll see $85-88K in May and correct/consolidate from there.
Stay tuned for new analyses. Follow me
I'm kidding.
The markets are still shaping up for more upside, and it's still holding crucial levels. I think that we'll see $85-88K in May and correct/consolidate from there.
Stay tuned for new analyses. Follow me
Some great momentum on $BTC lately, however there are some crucial levels to consider:
1. Break $79K = opening the gates towards the $86-89K area. If that second level breaks too = $100k+ happening. This will take time.
2. If there's no clear breakout at $79K, it wouldn't be surprising to expect some period of consolidation before there's another test of the resistance.
In that case, there's a level that I prefer to see hold: $73.5k+.
If that's lost, then I would assume we're going to be seeing a test of the lows.
Exciting times ahead of us.
1. Break $79K = opening the gates towards the $86-89K area. If that second level breaks too = $100k+ happening. This will take time.
2. If there's no clear breakout at $79K, it wouldn't be surprising to expect some period of consolidation before there's another test of the resistance.
In that case, there's a level that I prefer to see hold: $73.5k+.
If that's lost, then I would assume we're going to be seeing a test of the lows.
Exciting times ahead of us.
#Ethereum is about to follow #Bitcoin in the path upwards.
Beautiful upwards grind looking for a clear breakout above 2,070€.
Given the upwards path, and the amount of tests it has been having at the resistance zone, it's very likely that a breakout is about to happen.
The resistance areas:
- €2,350.
- €2,900.
I wouldn't expect the price of $ETH to stall at the first resistance zone, as that would be a relatively weak breakout after a 3 month consolidation within this area and beneath the current resistance zone.
A rally to €2,900 (or $3,400) would make way more sense after this period of consolidation.
Very likely if Bitcoin continues to rally to $84-87K that the #Altcoin markets are going to have a stronger run upwards.
Beautiful upwards grind looking for a clear breakout above 2,070€.
Given the upwards path, and the amount of tests it has been having at the resistance zone, it's very likely that a breakout is about to happen.
The resistance areas:
- €2,350.
- €2,900.
I wouldn't expect the price of $ETH to stall at the first resistance zone, as that would be a relatively weak breakout after a 3 month consolidation within this area and beneath the current resistance zone.
A rally to €2,900 (or $3,400) would make way more sense after this period of consolidation.
Very likely if Bitcoin continues to rally to $84-87K that the #Altcoin markets are going to have a stronger run upwards.
The most bullish scenario for #Bitcoin would be this breakout to $100K in the coming period.
The reason for this is that it invalidates essentially every bearish retest scenario and clearly makes a new higher high.
After such a case, you'd be looking for a higher low, which the previous resistance level then needs to flip as support.
I'm not giving this scenario a lot of value, yet, but it outlines perfectly what the crucial resistance zones are.
For me, a breakout above $84-87K is evidence that we're done with the bear market, and if you look at the statistical impact of the previous crash to $60K, there's been only one scenario where the markets have hit new lows: Q4 2022 during the FTX collapse.
Sure, we can have the same type of event taking place again, although times are completely different these times with new ATHs on the Nasdaq and a rotating business cycle into our favor.
Statistically, after such a collapse, a new ATH for Bitcoin is hit in less than twelve months after that.
Additionally, the bear market doesn't go deeper in sigma outlier than the bull market has been. This time is no different, it has already hit those regions.
Again, I'm not giving this much value, yet, but it's important to realize that when we're hitting the $84-87K levels, that breaking through it means that the bear market is most likely over.
The reason for this is that it invalidates essentially every bearish retest scenario and clearly makes a new higher high.
After such a case, you'd be looking for a higher low, which the previous resistance level then needs to flip as support.
I'm not giving this scenario a lot of value, yet, but it outlines perfectly what the crucial resistance zones are.
For me, a breakout above $84-87K is evidence that we're done with the bear market, and if you look at the statistical impact of the previous crash to $60K, there's been only one scenario where the markets have hit new lows: Q4 2022 during the FTX collapse.
Sure, we can have the same type of event taking place again, although times are completely different these times with new ATHs on the Nasdaq and a rotating business cycle into our favor.
Statistically, after such a collapse, a new ATH for Bitcoin is hit in less than twelve months after that.
Additionally, the bear market doesn't go deeper in sigma outlier than the bull market has been. This time is no different, it has already hit those regions.
Again, I'm not giving this much value, yet, but it's important to realize that when we're hitting the $84-87K levels, that breaking through it means that the bear market is most likely over.
#Bitcoin is doing all fine.
Higher lows, higher highs on a lower timeframe, and a classic sweep of the $79K level.
No breakout above there, which is quite standard.
I would assume that we'll be testing the resistance again over the course of the next week and that that will be the first moment where #Altcoins start to outperform Bitcoin substantially.
The resistance between $85-90K is still my crucial resistance zone.
If it doesn't hold above $73-75K, trouble area!
Higher lows, higher highs on a lower timeframe, and a classic sweep of the $79K level.
No breakout above there, which is quite standard.
I would assume that we'll be testing the resistance again over the course of the next week and that that will be the first moment where #Altcoins start to outperform Bitcoin substantially.
The resistance between $85-90K is still my crucial resistance zone.
If it doesn't hold above $73-75K, trouble area!
A lot of the #Altcoins look like this.
Massive destruction since 2024, and 2025 was a full bear market year.
However, the correction downwards has slowed down and many of them have been accumulating for the past few months.
One of them is $OP
I'm still holding this in my portfolio and I'm not planning to be selling the position at all. I think it's actually due for upwards momentum from here.
You'd rather want to buy the asset when nobody expects it to do well, than when it's the talk of the town.
This is also where the DCA principle comes in. I've been adding assets over the course of the past month, which lowers my average buy and therefore, I'm quicker back into profits than when I was simply going to be holding the entire stack.
Massive destruction since 2024, and 2025 was a full bear market year.
However, the correction downwards has slowed down and many of them have been accumulating for the past few months.
One of them is $OP
I'm still holding this in my portfolio and I'm not planning to be selling the position at all. I think it's actually due for upwards momentum from here.
You'd rather want to buy the asset when nobody expects it to do well, than when it's the talk of the town.
This is also where the DCA principle comes in. I've been adding assets over the course of the past month, which lowers my average buy and therefore, I'm quicker back into profits than when I was simply going to be holding the entire stack.
Clearly, the markets are consolidating after that initial test at $79K for #Bitcoin .
I would assume we'll continue the upwards run if it holds the trend.
If it drops to < $73K, I think we'll see a cascade of liquidations, and something else is broken in the system (Gold rallies again or the VIX shoots up).
If not, then $85-88K this month/May seems very likely.
I would assume we'll continue the upwards run if it holds the trend.
If it drops to < $73K, I think we'll see a cascade of liquidations, and something else is broken in the system (Gold rallies again or the VIX shoots up).
If not, then $85-88K this month/May seems very likely.
#Bitcoin is a generational opportunity, right now.
The Bitcoin Sharpe Ratio has hit a level that's comparable to any broad market bottom.
This early in 2026.
If you flip that measure, it's actually the best time to be investing in the underlying asset, in this case #Bitcoin.
The Bitcoin Sharpe Ratio is a metric that measures risk-adjusted returns.
It's essentially saying how much return you're getting per unit of quantity volatility you're willing to take. The lower the Sharpe, the worse the risk-adjusted performance of the underlying asset is.
If the metric is Red, it is in the Red (euphoric zone), you should question whether you should be holding the asset.
If the metric is Purple, it's in the Purple (low risk zone), you should question whether you should be accumulating the asset, as this can be classified as the 'Generational Buy' area.
Let's quantify that on the previous occurrences.
January 2015:
Purple zone hit.
Price of #Bitcoin $180.
Returns 12 months later: +133%
Returns 24 months later: +400%
December 2018:
Purple zone hit.
Price of #Bitcoin $3,200.
Returns 12 months later: +125%
Returns 24 months later: +806%
June/November 2022:
Purple zone hit.
Price of #Bitcoin on average $17,000-19,000.
Returns 12 months later: +120%
Returns 24 months later: +400%
The average returns after the Sharpe ratio has dipped in the <30 zone.
Three months: +40-80%
Twelve months: +125-135%
Two years: +400-800%
In that light, and I've stated this before, it's not strange to expect:
- #Bitcoin at $100,000 in Q3 2026.
- A new all-time high in Q4 2026/Q1 2027.
Statistical data proves that you'd rather want to be accumulating at these ranges.
The Bitcoin Sharpe Ratio has hit a level that's comparable to any broad market bottom.
This early in 2026.
If you flip that measure, it's actually the best time to be investing in the underlying asset, in this case #Bitcoin.
The Bitcoin Sharpe Ratio is a metric that measures risk-adjusted returns.
It's essentially saying how much return you're getting per unit of quantity volatility you're willing to take. The lower the Sharpe, the worse the risk-adjusted performance of the underlying asset is.
If the metric is Red, it is in the Red (euphoric zone), you should question whether you should be holding the asset.
If the metric is Purple, it's in the Purple (low risk zone), you should question whether you should be accumulating the asset, as this can be classified as the 'Generational Buy' area.
Let's quantify that on the previous occurrences.
January 2015:
Purple zone hit.
Price of #Bitcoin $180.
Returns 12 months later: +133%
Returns 24 months later: +400%
December 2018:
Purple zone hit.
Price of #Bitcoin $3,200.
Returns 12 months later: +125%
Returns 24 months later: +806%
June/November 2022:
Purple zone hit.
Price of #Bitcoin on average $17,000-19,000.
Returns 12 months later: +120%
Returns 24 months later: +400%
The average returns after the Sharpe ratio has dipped in the <30 zone.
Three months: +40-80%
Twelve months: +125-135%
Two years: +400-800%
In that light, and I've stated this before, it's not strange to expect:
- #Bitcoin at $100,000 in Q3 2026.
- A new all-time high in Q4 2026/Q1 2027.
Statistical data proves that you'd rather want to be accumulating at these ranges.
Beautiful tracker of the current sentiment.
#Bitcoin bottomed out in recent months.
Bitcoin bottomed out in 2022.
During that period, $MSTR was trading at 1x mNAV.
The peak was in December '24 vs. Gold.
During that period, $MSTR was traded at 3x mNAV.
Now is the time to buy.
#Bitcoin bottomed out in recent months.
Bitcoin bottomed out in 2022.
During that period, $MSTR was trading at 1x mNAV.
The peak was in December '24 vs. Gold.
During that period, $MSTR was traded at 3x mNAV.
Now is the time to buy.
Login to explore more contents