DDDDABC
Open Trade
High-Frequency Trader
6.2 Years
17 Following
25 Followers
28 Liked
2 Shared
Posts
Portfolio
short gold
30-day total probability (4.9–5.9)
Limited compromise ceasefire (60 days): ≈40%
Negotiation extension + final compromise signing: ≈25%
Negotiation breakdown + full-scale war: ≈35%
Iran fully realizes 10 points: ≈0%
The U.S. completely suppresses Iran: ≈0%
The 3 most critical trigger points
Israel's red line (4.18–4.21)
As long as the U.S. acknowledges Iran's nuclear enrichment, fully lifts oil sanctions, and significantly withdraws troops → Israel will unilaterally bomb Iran → war is inevitable
Iran's red line (entire process)
If the U.S. does not lift complete sanctions, does not return all assets, does not acknowledge nuclear rights, and does not withdraw troops → Iran rejects any agreement
Trump's red line (entire process)
If Iran does not give up nuclear enrichment, does not agree to a permanent ceasefire, and does not limit missiles → the U.S. will never sign and will resume bombing
Limited compromise ceasefire (60 days): ≈40%
Negotiation extension + final compromise signing: ≈25%
Negotiation breakdown + full-scale war: ≈35%
Iran fully realizes 10 points: ≈0%
The U.S. completely suppresses Iran: ≈0%
The 3 most critical trigger points
Israel's red line (4.18–4.21)
As long as the U.S. acknowledges Iran's nuclear enrichment, fully lifts oil sanctions, and significantly withdraws troops → Israel will unilaterally bomb Iran → war is inevitable
Iran's red line (entire process)
If the U.S. does not lift complete sanctions, does not return all assets, does not acknowledge nuclear rights, and does not withdraw troops → Iran rejects any agreement
Trump's red line (entire process)
If Iran does not give up nuclear enrichment, does not agree to a permanent ceasefire, and does not limit missiles → the U.S. will never sign and will resume bombing
The trading volume of Alpha in 1h
The trading volume of the contract in 1h
The funding rate
Is there anything else that needs explanation?
The chips have already unified one-sidedly, Alpha has little volume left, how else can it attract? Top 1 official 47%, Top 2 black hole 28%, Top 3 whale 7% (no more accumulation for 40 days)
Seeing someone shout long makes me feel more certain 😆
#siren #SIRENShort $SIREN
The trading volume of the contract in 1h
The funding rate
Is there anything else that needs explanation?
The chips have already unified one-sidedly, Alpha has little volume left, how else can it attract? Top 1 official 47%, Top 2 black hole 28%, Top 3 whale 7% (no more accumulation for 40 days)
Seeing someone shout long makes me feel more certain 😆
#siren #SIRENShort $SIREN
Not sure how long the eating rate can last
First mark up
Do not fight with the underdogs, do not fight with the old coins
Control your positions well
At this stage, a one-to-one margin for contracts is the right path. BTC's pullback has ended; wait for sideways movement before increasing contracts
The gambler among gamblers
In the past few days, ETH Layer 2 has collectively risen
Is this the afterglow of mentioning ZK?
v God has previously mentioned KNC and SSV
#山寨币市场回暖
Do not fight with the underdogs, do not fight with the old coins
Control your positions well
At this stage, a one-to-one margin for contracts is the right path. BTC's pullback has ended; wait for sideways movement before increasing contracts
The gambler among gamblers
In the past few days, ETH Layer 2 has collectively risen
Is this the afterglow of mentioning ZK?
v God has previously mentioned KNC and SSV
#山寨币市场回暖
Does anyone remember the verbal battle between Sun Ge and Martians back in the day?
At that time, there was no Binance, and everyone was preaching on Weibo.
At that time, there was no Binance, and everyone was preaching on Weibo.
Sitting on the green train, buying coins, preparing to increase by 0.3
#AIA
#AIA
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