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This wave of TRB has directly increased by almost twice!!

Is this time different or still the same?\n\nIn the bear market of '22, there was a bounce that stayed above the MA120 for 2 weeks, but it quickly dropped back down.\n\nIn the bear market of '26, there's been a bounce that's been above the MA120 for 5 days now. How long can we hold this level?\n\nIn '22, the highest point of the rebound in February-March was at the end of March, and once April closed bullish, it started to dip.\n\nWhat's the trajectory for the highest point of the rebound in March-April '26?

The daily chart still hasn't shown any significant divergence so far. Although there’s some divergence on the 4-12 hour levels, the downward momentum isn't strong, indicating a healthy correction. Thus, on the short term, every timeframe's pullback will hit its corresponding support point, creating opportunities for a long position. However, take profit levels shouldn't be aimed at breaking new highs like from Monday to Wednesday. Monday to Wednesday is about 'conquering new territories,' while Thursday to Sunday is about consolidating what has already been conquered, focusing on 'defense and retreat' as a strategy for progress.

Today, the intraday BTC support is at 77200-76925, but since it’s the weekend, we won’t be looking for long positions above 77000. We can wait for buying opportunities in the 76666-76350 range, aiming to take profit within a 900-1200 point rebound.

The target this time is the second top of the Bitcoin cloud chart. Once we hit the peak, we need to clear our positions immediately. At the second top, the market is likely to experience some serious FOMO, and I expect a lot of traders will get trapped. Recently, many altcoins have also adjusted quite a bit. If Bitcoin can pump up this time, we could see some altcoins explode.

In fact, a lot of the time, your gut feeling is spot on. For example, during a market rally, when your funds hit a certain level and you feel like you're making good profits, that's usually when the market is at its peak.

BTC hit 78800 for the first time and broke through the other day. I expect it will need to attack 1-2 more times to break out effectively. As long as today's high can stay above 78200, it means the bulls still hold the initiative for a short-term attack. If we see two consecutive days where the rebound doesn't exceed 77700, that signals the offensive might be winding down. At that point, the bulls should retreat to regroup and prepare for the impending counterattack from the bears at the end of the month.

78800 is the key to unlocking the strong resistance zone of 82000-83300 above 80k. So if BTC breaks through 78800 strongly again, the bears' defense will be in the 82000-83300 range. To avoid losses, setting a stop-loss at 80000 is crucial. If the liquidation is far off, we should look to add short positions around 82-83k and then target 79300-78888 for profit-taking. This is part of the plan for when we break through 80000 later. Similarly, the 82000-83300 range is a risk zone for the bulls; chasing positions there is a no-go. Generally, I don't recommend the bulls re-entering above 77000.

There's just one week left in April, and we have a chance to attack before next Wednesday. If we haven't broken through by then, the bulls should retreat to conserve energy and prepare to launch another offensive next month.

ETH long position continues, be patient for the bounce

ETH price action is stuck, so let's hold the position; it tests our patience and mindset.

ETH set up for a long at 2306, last night it made a precise dip and then bounced; this morning it retraced multiple times to 2306 but didn't break down with real selling pressure.
This indicates that there are bulls buying at 2306, resisting the bears' selling pressure.

This indirectly shows that ETH has given us multiple opportunities to buy on the dip; it's about whether you can seize the moment; such strong support means you should enter even if you're wrong.

After all, trading isn't perfect, and there are no eternal profit masters; theory and practice must align, buy at support, sell at resistance.

Looking at the charts, ETH formed a reverse U-shape top at 2423, completing a U-shape retracement looking for support around 2306, which means a V-shaped bounce is on the horizon.

For those sidelined, enter the market at current price to long, or set a buy limit at 2306, add to your position at 2268, with a stop loss at 2231, targeting around 2357 and 2395.

Summary of Bitcoin's performance in May over the years:
May 2021: -35.31% (sharp drop, mainly due to China's mining crackdown and regulatory hits, quick pullback from peak).
May 2022: around -15% to -20% (bear market continues, dipping to lower levels).
May 2023: slight positive returns or flat (bull market revival, mild fluctuations).
May 2024: slightly positive or minor dip (post-halving, adjusting in the $60k-$70k range, with further upward movement expected).
May 2025: positive returns (at one point surged from about $94k to hit a peak of $111k, strong overall in May, but later retracement occurred).
Earlier years reference (2017-2020): May 2017: strong upward movement (rapid surge from $1k+ during the bull market).
May 2018: downturn (bear market).
2019-2020: mixed, with some years showing positive returns.

Overall statistical trend (long-term backtesting, around 2011-2025/2026): The average return in May is historically below average for Bitcoin (not the worst month, as September-October can sometimes be weaker).
The summer half-year (May-October) has historically shown significantly lower cumulative returns compared to the winter half-year.
Percentage of positive return months: May around 50-60% (high volatility, no overwhelming advantage).
The strongest months are commonly: October-November, January-March, December; weaker months include: May-September, June-August summer.

ETFs have been on a buying spree lately. I compared it to Bitcoin's price action. When the ETFs flow in, Bitcoin generally rises. It's only when the weekend hits, and the ETFs take a break, that Bitcoin dares to dip.

For now, I'm not looking to short unless the ETFs start flowing out consistently or if the US-Iran conflict reignites.

Recently, I've been focusing mainly on altcoins. It's a rare altcoin season, and there's a chance to turn small investments into big profits.

Honestly, Binance and the other platforms like Ersheng and Sansheng are still pretty new.

The '潜龙勿用' was probably Nina's milk back in the day, right? It hasn’t given any alpha above 1m for a long time.

Milady is like Nina and BSC's wild milk, right? Diver dude got 100x gains but then faced a serious pullback.

The vulgar penguins have been building for so long, and now Ersheng is eyeing the little god of wealth; I wonder how many people got caught in that wave!

FOMO is just too weak to even comment on; Big Bro is milking daily, the official Twitter is milking too, but come on, give us a position! If you do, it’ll definitely take off!

Fight, BAP, TITAN, even though they feel a bit like a conspiracy group, if they give alpha, it's just a case of borrowing fake to fix real!

Right now, KOLs have it easy; if it's a few m market cap, just throw some FUD and you'll definitely be on the “forever right” side of the bloggers.

Binance right now is all about alpha, futures, and spot trading, all "one in demand"; maybe they’re scared of the backlash or worried about the liquidity being too poor in a bear market.

Sigh, let’s hope Bitcoin breaks 80k soon!

I’ve done some digging on ETH, and it looks like we’re dealing with a big triangle formation. Right now, we’re in a pullback phase, with the lows expected to hit around 2300, near that lower trend line. After that, we might see another bounce to wrap up the last leg, with highs projected near 2400. There’s a chance we could see a false breakout to tap those minor highs.

However, this formation looks like it could break downwards. If it were a bullish continuation pattern, we’d be seeing an ascending triangle instead. This is a symmetrical triangle at a high level, coupled with a weaker short-term trend that doesn’t support a bullish continuation unless ETH experiences a solid rally. Otherwise, I believe we’ll be looking at a breakdown of this triangle. This is just a preliminary assessment; we’ll have to see how the pattern evolves!

Did some research on BTC and made a prediction for the upcoming price action. Although it's currently in an ascending channel, the recent high looks more like a terminal wedge. This means that breaking above the recent high in the short term is likely creating a 4-hour ascending wedge or terminal pattern, which is a bearish formation.

The internal structure shows a small five-wave sequence. According to this pattern, wave 135 represents an upward wave, while wave 24 is a downward wave. The current high at wave 13 has already formed, leaving us with the final high in wave 5. Therefore, we deduce that we are currently in the 4th wave correction, with the expected low around the wedge's lower edge, around the 76,000-76,500 range. After testing this level, we should see another acceleration upwards to complete the final high.

Thus, if the wedge plays out, the final high is expected to be in the 80,000-81,000 range. If it's a typical ascending wedge, then the peak will be near the upper edge around 80,000. However, if it’s a terminal wedge, the last high will typically exceed the upper edge, creating a false breakout. The peak is anticipated to be around 80,600 or even slightly higher, after which we may see a reversal and a downward move.

Currently, we need to keep an eye on the 4th wave's retest low in the 76,000-76,500 range. If we retest this area and don’t break below, then this pattern will likely be validated. The next phase would be a rebound to hit a new high. For now, we'll judge based on the evolution of the pattern's accuracy in our trading decisions. If our prediction is correct, we could snag profits on both long and short positions.

Every market movement is like a psychological battleground painted by the whales.
In a bull market and during uptrends, it's all about luring shorts.
In a bear market and downtrends, it's constantly enticing longs.
There are rarely any exceptions.
The last chart is my own speculative analysis, just for fun.
I've combined on-chain long-term holding costs, the exchange's key support levels, and indicators like the 4-year halving cycle to resonate with potential bottom prices.

Woke up at 8:30 AM, missed the spike from around 7, but it's not too far from the market price. Friends who wanted to FOMO during the day yesterday are now jumping in long as it pulls back; the spike at 7 is the lowest point for today's retracement.

If ETH breaks above 2444-2462, we're looking at a push towards 2500.

BTC needs to break above 79600 to aim for 80550-81725.

ETH formed a short-term triangle pattern and chose to break upwards, but the price action is a bit weak. We're still a distance away from the first high, so if we get a bounce up, the peak might test the previous high around 2450. Keep an eye on whether we can see a shooting star candlestick at that point; if so, I'll consider entering a short position.

Recharge your faith! First off, the BTC short position entry cost is around 76.7k. Last night, the price dipped, hitting a low of 74.7k. That’s about a two thousand point profit from the high. But since it was late, I basically missed the chance to take profits. That low point is sitting on the support of the bottom edge of the ascending channel, and after holding, it bounced back.

From what I see, the bulls are still pretty strong, but the head and shoulders pattern is still looming. The right shoulder keeps breaking higher, but that doesn’t negate the potential of the head and shoulders forming later on. Plus, after a rapid rebound, it can easily pull back, and I think the chance of this accelerated retracement holding is quite slim.

This move was driven by news, causing the price to accelerate. The US and Iran are currently in a temporary ceasefire, and Trump is wildly drawing lines, but I think there’s a good chance negotiations will continue. Personally, I don’t believe they’ll easily come to an agreement; at least, the talks will last a while, so the news sentiment is likely to stay bearish, but that’s just my take.

Currently, the price is sitting at a high level. It will either pull back directly or oscillate before aiming for a small peak around 78k, which will likely be the end of the move. That’s close to the previous highs, and there’s some selling pressure there. Coupled with the head and shoulders pattern and the potential double top structure, I still don’t think we’ll just reach the upper edge at 79.5k.

Now is still the time to persist in looking at opportunities in exchanges, alpha+ contracts are the first choice, followed by some volatile tokens. I don't know if it's part of the play, but in reality, the impact of such high control is not significant.

1. M just saw it back to 4.3 again, now fdv is over 5b, others question it because of high market value, but we retail investors only care about how to make money, the market value of high control tokens is not our primary concern.

2. Rave has been fluctuating up and down, now it’s at 1.5, feeling a bit like retail investors have lost interest, but we still need to pay attention to the risks, the project party holds the tokens.

3. Binance life reached 350m the day before yesterday, now it's back to 500m, unfortunately, I didn't buy back.

4. Kasplex saw Gate accept layer two yesterday, you can directly withdraw kas from Gate to the chain, and can also directly withdraw back without complicated cross-chain processes, now we just need a good line watching tool, and the leading sompi is also at a new high, it seems like a new one came out today.

The ETH short-term top formation has been established, forming a head and shoulders top + ascending wedge, both of which are bearish patterns. In the short term, a pullback to the right shoulder high point also aligns with the Fibonacci 0.5 level, and is just slightly off from the 0.618 level. Therefore, the focus in the short term is whether the right shoulder will be established; once confirmed, the downward trend will begin to accelerate, with the low point expected to drop below 2170, or even lower.

However, unfortunately, I missed the short position as it was four points away from my predicted level. So, if there is a small-scale rebound, I will not hesitate to directly enter a short position. Additionally, ETH has already broken below the ascending channel, which means that the short-term upward trend is basically coming to an end. Besides the right shoulder pullback, there is also a false bullish pattern on the small scale, which may lead to an immediate acceleration of the downward trend.

The fundamentals of ETH are similar to the predictions, but the short position missed by a few points. The plan was to enter a short position above 2350, but the recent retracement high only reached around 2346, so it missed by four points. Otherwise, it would have started making a profit. The pattern is also in a head and shoulders formation, and a downtrend will likely begin in the short term.

Lobsters are also laying low; the gains from the past few days have basically all retreated, and the price has returned to the support area. In terms of pattern, it is in a bullish wedge, so you can buy near the current price of 0.0087 and leave room for additional purchases!