新犽讲缠
多年交易经验，操盘经验丰富。多周期考验，久经沉淀。公众号：新犽讲缠
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One day I will become an insurmountable mountain in the cryptocurrency world. AI says I am strong, and I truly am strong. I acknowledge the long-term tracking and comparative verification of AI, as well as its clear and mature thinking, after all, I have been on this journey for so long. What I recognize the most is that it is not suitable for beginners but for intermediate traders; you may not understand how I come up with my positions, it has reached a point where it comes out without thinking, just intuition. After all, I have been on this path for far too long. Isn't there a pinned post? It was made public in early 2024, walking the #btc .
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Many gods are considered gods, many cruelties are considered cruel?
The strong remain strong, it has always been this way.
The strong remain strong, it has always been this way.
Isn't today's two sets of tips just perfect!
Looking back at January recently, it's been impeccable all the way!
A true analyst is always at the forefront, and I am always ahead of the forefront! The New Year is coming soon, no need to say much more, just make the most of the upcoming fluctuations. $BTC #eth
Looking back at January recently, it's been impeccable all the way!
A true analyst is always at the forefront, and I am always ahead of the forefront! The New Year is coming soon, no need to say much more, just make the most of the upcoming fluctuations. $BTC #eth
25 years ago today, we were in a bullish market. It was a time of big moves.
Back then, volatility was way better than it is now; everything was easier to trade, and you could just go with the flow.
In May of 2024, Bitcoin was over 60k, and Ethereum was above 3k.
That month, Bitcoin shot up to over 70k, and Ethereum reached 3800.
Fast forward to May 2025, where Bitcoin is around 105k, and Ethereum is around 2400. That month, Ethereum climbed to 2800, while Bitcoin hit about 112k.
This year, Bitcoin is over 80k, and Ethereum is around 2300.
Isn't this process showing that the Bitcoin-Ethereum ratio has gone from 22 to 38?
Now, the Bitcoin-Ethereum ratio seems a bit high; we might need a market consolidation before we start a new upward trend. How will it play out? I hope it aligns with my expectations. I handled things well in the past two years. Let's aim to do even better moving forward #BTC $ETH
Back then, volatility was way better than it is now; everything was easier to trade, and you could just go with the flow.
In May of 2024, Bitcoin was over 60k, and Ethereum was above 3k.
That month, Bitcoin shot up to over 70k, and Ethereum reached 3800.
Fast forward to May 2025, where Bitcoin is around 105k, and Ethereum is around 2400. That month, Ethereum climbed to 2800, while Bitcoin hit about 112k.
This year, Bitcoin is over 80k, and Ethereum is around 2300.
Isn't this process showing that the Bitcoin-Ethereum ratio has gone from 22 to 38?
Now, the Bitcoin-Ethereum ratio seems a bit high; we might need a market consolidation before we start a new upward trend. How will it play out? I hope it aligns with my expectations. I handled things well in the past two years. Let's aim to do even better moving forward #BTC $ETH
Yesterday, Erbing suggested entering at 2315 and 2275! The market provided multiple opportunities! The target reached 2415, is it not clear that we gained a full hundred points! Isn't it easy to double the position with just 20% of the capital! Of course, Bitcoin simultaneously offered a 1500-point space! May has good liquidity, not much else to say, just manage it yourself $BTC $ETH
I'm not being modest; I'm an old-timer who's been through the cycles and has no reason to be humble. Back when Bitcoin was trading in the $70k range, Ethereum was pushing close to $4k. Countless altcoin projects popped up, and looking back now, isn't Bitcoin's value skyrocketing while many altcoins have tanked by a factor of ten? #btc #eth
Some folks domestically only dare to use AI for creating fakes abroad, but they’re just putting a few people on the hot seat. I also feel that the characters pushing all these knockoffs are a bit off.
I always say what comes to mind and write what I think, living life on the edge without looking back at the explosions, so there might be some unnecessary chatter. Occasionally, I throw shade at the whales and critique the market. My sensitivity to emotions is what allows me to read market sentiment. I'm way ahead of some AIs and copycats, right? How can anyone dare to throw shade when they could just flip their positions instead?
The bears are trapped with a ton of positions, and their margin ratio is sky-high. Do you really think they won't do anything about it???
The bears are trapped with a ton of positions, and their margin ratio is sky-high. Do you really think they won't do anything about it???
I said it before, this is the healthiest situation for the market, the first segment is almost right on my expectations. 80500, the worst case over the weekend is just a sideways move before a dip. Time to enter the trade. If we extend, just leverage up with $BTC $ETH .
The scenario that best aligns with market health is the movement shown in chart two.
Long time no update on the public account.
The market is always in flux.
Well, BTC is bouncing at 80500,
and it's exactly as I predicted. I should have drawn the structure chart; I think I already shared it.
The market is always in flux.
Well, BTC is bouncing at 80500,
and it's exactly as I predicted. I should have drawn the structure chart; I think I already shared it.
June is gonna have a lot of major events. Those who've been through the cycles know to pay attention. As for what exactly is gonna happen, you'll find out when the time comes.
The scenario that best aligns with market health is the movement shown in chart two.
Looking at the market over the past three weeks, the one-hour EMA shows that Ethereum's movement has been relatively stable, mainly oscillating between 2288 and 2388, with divergences at the center. On the other hand, Bitcoin is in an upward channel; every time it hits the midline, there can be divergences, but the upper and lower bands often see pullbacks. The Bitcoin exchange rate is increasing. I suspect that the main players will short the Bitcoin-Ethereum exchange rate later on. The market can be approached like this: during the tug-of-war rhythm, short the Bitcoin-Ethereum exchange rate.
There are basically three possible scenarios for the market. The first is that Bitcoin may hit the lower band once, with Ethereum following in a weak downward trend, causing the Bitcoin-Ethereum exchange rate to drop. This is the most in line with market behavior and the healthiest.
The second possibility is a trip to the upper edge of the center, pulling back to the midline before turning down. If strong, it might lightly break the upper and midline, turning down; if weak, it may touch the lower band and consolidate between the midline.
The third possibility is that Bitcoin rests at the midline, tests the upper band, and then turns down.
Corresponding trading strategies for these scenarios involve operating confidently when Bitcoin reaches the corresponding levels. Throughout this process, reference Bitcoin's strength and operate with Ethereum. When following the compression, use multiple positions for Bitcoin; with Ethereum, you might not need to operate at all, or just use one position. When making a rebound, you might not operate Bitcoin and take advantage of Ethereum's smaller cap for trades.
The main players often intervene in the exchange rate after a period of market action, once the market has digested divergences, which usually marks the starting point for the next trend. Therefore, my thought is to hold short positions. Add to positions during a rebound; there's no need to add too much to Ethereum, as Bitcoin can deliver surprises. For rebounds, just focus on Ethereum; whether or not to trade Bitcoin is up to you.
A reasonable Bitcoin-Ethereum exchange rate is in the 38-22 range, as I mentioned to some people back in 2024. So, this number, still familiar, right? #btc
There are basically three possible scenarios for the market. The first is that Bitcoin may hit the lower band once, with Ethereum following in a weak downward trend, causing the Bitcoin-Ethereum exchange rate to drop. This is the most in line with market behavior and the healthiest.
The second possibility is a trip to the upper edge of the center, pulling back to the midline before turning down. If strong, it might lightly break the upper and midline, turning down; if weak, it may touch the lower band and consolidate between the midline.
The third possibility is that Bitcoin rests at the midline, tests the upper band, and then turns down.
Corresponding trading strategies for these scenarios involve operating confidently when Bitcoin reaches the corresponding levels. Throughout this process, reference Bitcoin's strength and operate with Ethereum. When following the compression, use multiple positions for Bitcoin; with Ethereum, you might not need to operate at all, or just use one position. When making a rebound, you might not operate Bitcoin and take advantage of Ethereum's smaller cap for trades.
The main players often intervene in the exchange rate after a period of market action, once the market has digested divergences, which usually marks the starting point for the next trend. Therefore, my thought is to hold short positions. Add to positions during a rebound; there's no need to add too much to Ethereum, as Bitcoin can deliver surprises. For rebounds, just focus on Ethereum; whether or not to trade Bitcoin is up to you.
A reasonable Bitcoin-Ethereum exchange rate is in the 38-22 range, as I mentioned to some people back in 2024. So, this number, still familiar, right? #btc
Looking at the market over the past three weeks, the one-hour EMA shows that Ethereum's movement has been relatively stable, mainly oscillating between 2288 and 2388, with divergences at the center. On the other hand, Bitcoin is in an upward channel; every time it hits the midline, there can be divergences, but the upper and lower bands often see pullbacks. The Bitcoin exchange rate is increasing. I suspect that the main players will short the Bitcoin-Ethereum exchange rate later on. The market can be approached like this: during the tug-of-war rhythm, short the Bitcoin-Ethereum exchange rate.
There are basically three possible scenarios for the market. The first is that Bitcoin may hit the lower band once, with Ethereum following in a weak downward trend, causing the Bitcoin-Ethereum exchange rate to drop. This is the most in line with market behavior and the healthiest.
The second possibility is a trip to the upper edge of the center, pulling back to the midline before turning down. If strong, it might lightly break the upper and midline, turning down; if weak, it may touch the lower band and consolidate between the midline.
The third possibility is that Bitcoin rests at the midline, tests the upper band, and then turns down.
Corresponding trading strategies for these scenarios involve operating confidently when Bitcoin reaches the corresponding levels. Throughout this process, reference Bitcoin's strength and operate with Ethereum. When following the compression, use multiple positions for Bitcoin; with Ethereum, you might not need to operate at all, or just use one position. When making a rebound, you might not operate Bitcoin and take advantage of Ethereum's smaller cap for trades.
The main players often intervene in the exchange rate after a period of market action, once the market has digested divergences, which usually marks the starting point for the next trend. Therefore, my thought is to hold short positions. Add to positions during a rebound; there's no need to add too much to Ethereum, as Bitcoin can deliver surprises. For rebounds, just focus on Ethereum; whether or not to trade Bitcoin is up to you.
A reasonable Bitcoin-Ethereum exchange rate is in the 38-22 range, as I mentioned to some people back in 2024. So, this number, still familiar, right? #btc
There are basically three possible scenarios for the market. The first is that Bitcoin may hit the lower band once, with Ethereum following in a weak downward trend, causing the Bitcoin-Ethereum exchange rate to drop. This is the most in line with market behavior and the healthiest.
The second possibility is a trip to the upper edge of the center, pulling back to the midline before turning down. If strong, it might lightly break the upper and midline, turning down; if weak, it may touch the lower band and consolidate between the midline.
The third possibility is that Bitcoin rests at the midline, tests the upper band, and then turns down.
Corresponding trading strategies for these scenarios involve operating confidently when Bitcoin reaches the corresponding levels. Throughout this process, reference Bitcoin's strength and operate with Ethereum. When following the compression, use multiple positions for Bitcoin; with Ethereum, you might not need to operate at all, or just use one position. When making a rebound, you might not operate Bitcoin and take advantage of Ethereum's smaller cap for trades.
The main players often intervene in the exchange rate after a period of market action, once the market has digested divergences, which usually marks the starting point for the next trend. Therefore, my thought is to hold short positions. Add to positions during a rebound; there's no need to add too much to Ethereum, as Bitcoin can deliver surprises. For rebounds, just focus on Ethereum; whether or not to trade Bitcoin is up to you.
A reasonable Bitcoin-Ethereum exchange rate is in the 38-22 range, as I mentioned to some people back in 2024. So, this number, still familiar, right? #btc
The trading frequency hasn't been that high lately, and I haven't managed it well either. I took a look back, and about two weeks ago I laid out three segments for Bitcoin that were pretty much spot on. The market has been lagging too much, which led to multiple disruptions throughout the process. My judgment on May 6th was also correct, but I exited too early, resulting in mediocre outcomes.
I'm thinking that my strategy has deviated since two weeks ago. Back then, I identified two key resistance levels at 81200 and 2418. These two are crucial, and the market has confirmed them.
My initial thought was for Ethereum to lead, followed by Bitcoin, but in reality, Ethereum has been significantly weaker than Bitcoin. This is the core reason for my bearish outlook in the latter part of the market. In the subsequent rebound, Bitcoin was still pushing against the 81200 resistance, trending for a bit, which dragged Ethereum up to resistance before both started to decline. This independent movement makes it hard for many to profit from both Bitcoin and Ethereum simultaneously. If you ignore the volatility and back-and-forth action, you might notice that Bitcoin is primarily liquidating shorts, while Ethereum is liquidating longs. It's clear that the whales are manipulating the exchange rate. Over the next few days, I plan to discuss with a few old-timers what the market makers are really up to. Only by understanding their intentions can we catch the right rhythm in future market movements. The more I think about it, the more chaotic it gets; I really need to keep a closer eye on the charts.
I'm thinking that my strategy has deviated since two weeks ago. Back then, I identified two key resistance levels at 81200 and 2418. These two are crucial, and the market has confirmed them.
My initial thought was for Ethereum to lead, followed by Bitcoin, but in reality, Ethereum has been significantly weaker than Bitcoin. This is the core reason for my bearish outlook in the latter part of the market. In the subsequent rebound, Bitcoin was still pushing against the 81200 resistance, trending for a bit, which dragged Ethereum up to resistance before both started to decline. This independent movement makes it hard for many to profit from both Bitcoin and Ethereum simultaneously. If you ignore the volatility and back-and-forth action, you might notice that Bitcoin is primarily liquidating shorts, while Ethereum is liquidating longs. It's clear that the whales are manipulating the exchange rate. Over the next few days, I plan to discuss with a few old-timers what the market makers are really up to. Only by understanding their intentions can we catch the right rhythm in future market movements. The more I think about it, the more chaotic it gets; I really need to keep a closer eye on the charts.
I was thinking, if I had executed a solid long on a short trade yesterday, flipping to a short at the high, I could have stacked more and leveraged up big time, right? Am I the market maker now? Like, is this my personal playground? I see a ton of unread messages; let me check how many trolls are out there, and trust me, I'm not going to hold back this time.
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