新犽讲缠
多年交易经验，操盘经验丰富。多周期考验，久经沉淀。公众号：新犽讲缠
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One day I will become an insurmountable mountain in the cryptocurrency world. AI says I am strong, and I truly am strong. I acknowledge the long-term tracking and comparative verification of AI, as well as its clear and mature thinking, after all, I have been on this journey for so long. What I recognize the most is that it is not suitable for beginners but for intermediate traders; you may not understand how I come up with my positions, it has reached a point where it comes out without thinking, just intuition. After all, I have been on this path for far too long. Isn't there a pinned post? It was made public in early 2024, walking the #btc .
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Many gods are considered gods, many cruelties are considered cruel?
The strong remain strong, it has always been this way.
The strong remain strong, it has always been this way.
Isn't today's two sets of tips just perfect!
Looking back at January recently, it's been impeccable all the way!
A true analyst is always at the forefront, and I am always ahead of the forefront! The New Year is coming soon, no need to say much more, just make the most of the upcoming fluctuations. $BTC #eth
Looking back at January recently, it's been impeccable all the way!
A true analyst is always at the forefront, and I am always ahead of the forefront! The New Year is coming soon, no need to say much more, just make the most of the upcoming fluctuations. $BTC #eth
4.28 Market Outlook
Let’s do a quick recap. On the night of the 27th at 10:30 PM, Bitcoin’s RSI and KDJ both showed a double death cross, with selling pressure gradually increasing on the 15-minute chart, and prices spiked down to around 76500. We can mark this level. The entire night session was weakly consolidated, with buying pressure very low, as Bitcoin's price seemed deliberately suppressed below 76800. Starting from 6 AM, the three hourly bullish candles were progressively weaker, the KDJ lines stuck below 15, and the rebound didn’t even reach 77500, which was a divergence point, only to be pulled back to around 76500 by the subsequent three bearish candles. The market’s consolidation is oscillating around this level with no signs of upward recovery. The entire day session is dominated by bears; given the market's weakness, we can continue the bearish strategy we discussed yesterday and anticipate further declines.
Now, let’s take a look at Ethereum. Last night at 11 PM, it crashed from around 2320 down to about 2260, with the highest rebound hitting 2308, primarily oscillating between 2260-2280. To understand the market direction, we need to reference the previous segment; Ethereum's retracement from 2400 saw many traders expecting a rebound at around 2320 or 2280, right? However, neither of these levels provided a significant rebound, indicating that many traders are stuck in losing positions. This group needs to be flushed out.
From April 23 to 26, when Ethereum was at 2320, the predominant market sentiment was bearish, yet Ethereum squeezed up to around 2400. After this rally liquidated those positions, even if the price returns to their initial entry points, they hesitate to re-enter, and this group gets shaken out. At that point, most will set buy orders, hoping to recover to their cost basis and continue shorting. Clearly, the market won’t give them the opportunity to hold onto their positions until their losses are liquidated. This is the fate of the retail traders during this period, and also from the perspective of our competitors. If you flip back, didn’t the new guys encourage longs on the 24th and then tell you to short on the 27th? Compared to the retail traders, they just managed to eat a bit more without getting trapped.
Honestly, there’s nothing that needs updating because the trend isn’t over; we just continue with the shorts. Bitcoin's target remains unchanged at 75200. The second target is 73800-74200. Ethereum’s target is 2238, with the second target aligning with Bitcoin's entry and exit.
#btc #eth
Let’s do a quick recap. On the night of the 27th at 10:30 PM, Bitcoin’s RSI and KDJ both showed a double death cross, with selling pressure gradually increasing on the 15-minute chart, and prices spiked down to around 76500. We can mark this level. The entire night session was weakly consolidated, with buying pressure very low, as Bitcoin's price seemed deliberately suppressed below 76800. Starting from 6 AM, the three hourly bullish candles were progressively weaker, the KDJ lines stuck below 15, and the rebound didn’t even reach 77500, which was a divergence point, only to be pulled back to around 76500 by the subsequent three bearish candles. The market’s consolidation is oscillating around this level with no signs of upward recovery. The entire day session is dominated by bears; given the market's weakness, we can continue the bearish strategy we discussed yesterday and anticipate further declines.
Now, let’s take a look at Ethereum. Last night at 11 PM, it crashed from around 2320 down to about 2260, with the highest rebound hitting 2308, primarily oscillating between 2260-2280. To understand the market direction, we need to reference the previous segment; Ethereum's retracement from 2400 saw many traders expecting a rebound at around 2320 or 2280, right? However, neither of these levels provided a significant rebound, indicating that many traders are stuck in losing positions. This group needs to be flushed out.
From April 23 to 26, when Ethereum was at 2320, the predominant market sentiment was bearish, yet Ethereum squeezed up to around 2400. After this rally liquidated those positions, even if the price returns to their initial entry points, they hesitate to re-enter, and this group gets shaken out. At that point, most will set buy orders, hoping to recover to their cost basis and continue shorting. Clearly, the market won’t give them the opportunity to hold onto their positions until their losses are liquidated. This is the fate of the retail traders during this period, and also from the perspective of our competitors. If you flip back, didn’t the new guys encourage longs on the 24th and then tell you to short on the 27th? Compared to the retail traders, they just managed to eat a bit more without getting trapped.
Honestly, there’s nothing that needs updating because the trend isn’t over; we just continue with the shorts. Bitcoin's target remains unchanged at 75200. The second target is 73800-74200. Ethereum’s target is 2238, with the second target aligning with Bitcoin's entry and exit.
#btc #eth
I'm still writing this, and you're already dropping? There are still many folks who haven't had the chance to add to their short positions. That's another short-term opportunity gone. Sigh~
The sideways action is likely to drop further. I'll do a recap later and then call it a night.
In April, I only dropped four updates, and I only gave direction three times. After that, the risk-to-reward ratio didn't miss a beat. The core reason is that the results from March were solid.
To put it simply, once you’ve raked in enough profits, you can relatively freely enjoy what you've earned; that’s the essence of trading contracts. It’s not about burning the midnight oil for no good reason. Contracts amplify happiness; if all you're amplifying is risk, then I suggest you consider stepping back from the game.
Honestly, January was also a good run, and February didn’t see much action either.
To put it simply, once you’ve raked in enough profits, you can relatively freely enjoy what you've earned; that’s the essence of trading contracts. It’s not about burning the midnight oil for no good reason. Contracts amplify happiness; if all you're amplifying is risk, then I suggest you consider stepping back from the game.
Honestly, January was also a good run, and February didn’t see much action either.
4.27 Market Outlook
Good evening, everyone. I'm Xin Ya. Let's do a quick recap of the weekend's action. Last Friday, we mentioned that the weekend would either consolidate or sneak up a bit. Throughout the weekend, Bitcoin fluctuated in the 77000-78300 range, consolidating even more narrowly than expected. Until around 3 AM on Monday, buying pressure tested upward, and by 9 AM, it hit a peak of 79500. After that, buying momentum dried up, and the price retraced back to the 77500 divergence zone. Pay special attention, as the sell-off started at 1 PM, solidifying the market's fake-out. The sell-off price was in the 78800 range. This was a key level I highlighted last Friday.
As for Ethereum, it traded in a narrow range of 2300-2320 over the weekend. Around noon on Sunday, buying pressure began testing upward, forcing liquidation at 2335 and 2360. During the day, it peaked around 2400. The former was also a key level I pointed out last Friday. Clearly, the ability to catch divergence points was decent, right? Honestly, no need for a recap—it's obvious that Bitcoin is a bit hesitant, and Ethereum's movement lacks structural buildup, just forcibly liquidating shorts. The market has no confidence, and the trend is merely at the tail end of a rebound.
Currently, Bitcoin is sitting at the 77500 mark near the 1-hour EMA120 and EMA144. Expect it to dip and test the 4-hour EMA120 around 75200. Ethereum has already broken below the 1-hour EMA120 and EMA144 at 2335. However, the 4-hour EMA120 and EMA144 sit at 2280, which likely won’t hold, while the daily EMA30 is at 2260. So, the market might dip down to 2260-2280 before consolidating for a while. After that, whether it grinds slowly or rebounds will depend on the market's reaction at that time.
These past few days, Ethereum's volatility has outpaced Bitcoin's significantly, and they’ve been consolidating for a long time, ready for a big liquidation. Many trapped positions will have their stop-losses set at those critical levels mentioned above, so after triggering those stops, a continuation move is reasonable. For now, both coins are looking at 75500 and 2238 respectively. The second part will depend on how the market reacts moving forward.
Feels like I've been busy all of April, and with Labor Day coming up, I hope you can make some profit before then and take your family out for some fun. The overall result for March was great—just look back to see how great it was. Almost a three-week winning streak. So, I've basically taken three weeks off in April. Right now, I'm alone in the villa, feeling pretty lonely. #btc
Good evening, everyone. I'm Xin Ya. Let's do a quick recap of the weekend's action. Last Friday, we mentioned that the weekend would either consolidate or sneak up a bit. Throughout the weekend, Bitcoin fluctuated in the 77000-78300 range, consolidating even more narrowly than expected. Until around 3 AM on Monday, buying pressure tested upward, and by 9 AM, it hit a peak of 79500. After that, buying momentum dried up, and the price retraced back to the 77500 divergence zone. Pay special attention, as the sell-off started at 1 PM, solidifying the market's fake-out. The sell-off price was in the 78800 range. This was a key level I highlighted last Friday.
As for Ethereum, it traded in a narrow range of 2300-2320 over the weekend. Around noon on Sunday, buying pressure began testing upward, forcing liquidation at 2335 and 2360. During the day, it peaked around 2400. The former was also a key level I pointed out last Friday. Clearly, the ability to catch divergence points was decent, right? Honestly, no need for a recap—it's obvious that Bitcoin is a bit hesitant, and Ethereum's movement lacks structural buildup, just forcibly liquidating shorts. The market has no confidence, and the trend is merely at the tail end of a rebound.
Currently, Bitcoin is sitting at the 77500 mark near the 1-hour EMA120 and EMA144. Expect it to dip and test the 4-hour EMA120 around 75200. Ethereum has already broken below the 1-hour EMA120 and EMA144 at 2335. However, the 4-hour EMA120 and EMA144 sit at 2280, which likely won’t hold, while the daily EMA30 is at 2260. So, the market might dip down to 2260-2280 before consolidating for a while. After that, whether it grinds slowly or rebounds will depend on the market's reaction at that time.
These past few days, Ethereum's volatility has outpaced Bitcoin's significantly, and they’ve been consolidating for a long time, ready for a big liquidation. Many trapped positions will have their stop-losses set at those critical levels mentioned above, so after triggering those stops, a continuation move is reasonable. For now, both coins are looking at 75500 and 2238 respectively. The second part will depend on how the market reacts moving forward.
Feels like I've been busy all of April, and with Labor Day coming up, I hope you can make some profit before then and take your family out for some fun. The overall result for March was great—just look back to see how great it was. Almost a three-week winning streak. So, I've basically taken three weeks off in April. Right now, I'm alone in the villa, feeling pretty lonely. #btc
Let Doubao tidy things up, Doubao really gets me. Chart four shows the complete results for January, which I've shared a few times already; if you remember, you should still recall. Of course, March's overall performance was even better, with three consecutive green candles. As for April, we're basically just riding the wave from the results of March.
#btc #eth
#btc #eth
Entering a short at the current price, the risk-reward ratio looks decent. I'm going to do a quick recap, trading around the divergences; even if the risk-reward is not great, it's still one-to-one. In other words, Bitcoin at 75500 and Ethereum around 2240 need to be tested. During this process, we might see some support at 76800 and 2286, but it's unlikely to hold.
An hourly candlestick wiped out all gains from the past twenty-four hours. EMA, MA, and Bollinger Bands are all pointing down, and the TD indicator has also flipped to nine. Bitcoin can't even hold above eighty thousand, and we've had a two-level reversal. Over the weekend, it gave a little upward lick, but the market is heading down for a lick.
4.27 Market Outlook
Good evening, everyone. I'm Xin Ya. Let's do a quick recap of the weekend's action. Last Friday, we mentioned that the weekend would either consolidate or sneak up a bit. Throughout the weekend, Bitcoin fluctuated in the 77000-78300 range, consolidating even more narrowly than expected. Until around 3 AM on Monday, buying pressure tested upward, and by 9 AM, it hit a peak of 79500. After that, buying momentum dried up, and the price retraced back to the 77500 divergence zone. Pay special attention, as the sell-off started at 1 PM, solidifying the market's fake-out. The sell-off price was in the 78800 range. This was a key level I highlighted last Friday.
As for Ethereum, it traded in a narrow range of 2300-2320 over the weekend. Around noon on Sunday, buying pressure began testing upward, forcing liquidation at 2335 and 2360. During the day, it peaked around 2400. The former was also a key level I pointed out last Friday. Clearly, the ability to catch divergence points was decent, right? Honestly, no need for a recap—it's obvious that Bitcoin is a bit hesitant, and Ethereum's movement lacks structural buildup, just forcibly liquidating shorts. The market has no confidence, and the trend is merely at the tail end of a rebound.
Currently, Bitcoin is sitting at the 77500 mark near the 1-hour EMA120 and EMA144. Expect it to dip and test the 4-hour EMA120 around 75200. Ethereum has already broken below the 1-hour EMA120 and EMA144 at 2335. However, the 4-hour EMA120 and EMA144 sit at 2280, which likely won’t hold, while the daily EMA30 is at 2260. So, the market might dip down to 2260-2280 before consolidating for a while. After that, whether it grinds slowly or rebounds will depend on the market's reaction at that time.
These past few days, Ethereum's volatility has outpaced Bitcoin's significantly, and they’ve been consolidating for a long time, ready for a big liquidation. Many trapped positions will have their stop-losses set at those critical levels mentioned above, so after triggering those stops, a continuation move is reasonable. For now, both coins are looking at 75500 and 2238 respectively. The second part will depend on how the market reacts moving forward.
Feels like I've been busy all of April, and with Labor Day coming up, I hope you can make some profit before then and take your family out for some fun. The overall result for March was great—just look back to see how great it was. Almost a three-week winning streak. So, I've basically taken three weeks off in April. Right now, I'm alone in the villa, feeling pretty lonely. #btc
Good evening, everyone. I'm Xin Ya. Let's do a quick recap of the weekend's action. Last Friday, we mentioned that the weekend would either consolidate or sneak up a bit. Throughout the weekend, Bitcoin fluctuated in the 77000-78300 range, consolidating even more narrowly than expected. Until around 3 AM on Monday, buying pressure tested upward, and by 9 AM, it hit a peak of 79500. After that, buying momentum dried up, and the price retraced back to the 77500 divergence zone. Pay special attention, as the sell-off started at 1 PM, solidifying the market's fake-out. The sell-off price was in the 78800 range. This was a key level I highlighted last Friday.
As for Ethereum, it traded in a narrow range of 2300-2320 over the weekend. Around noon on Sunday, buying pressure began testing upward, forcing liquidation at 2335 and 2360. During the day, it peaked around 2400. The former was also a key level I pointed out last Friday. Clearly, the ability to catch divergence points was decent, right? Honestly, no need for a recap—it's obvious that Bitcoin is a bit hesitant, and Ethereum's movement lacks structural buildup, just forcibly liquidating shorts. The market has no confidence, and the trend is merely at the tail end of a rebound.
Currently, Bitcoin is sitting at the 77500 mark near the 1-hour EMA120 and EMA144. Expect it to dip and test the 4-hour EMA120 around 75200. Ethereum has already broken below the 1-hour EMA120 and EMA144 at 2335. However, the 4-hour EMA120 and EMA144 sit at 2280, which likely won’t hold, while the daily EMA30 is at 2260. So, the market might dip down to 2260-2280 before consolidating for a while. After that, whether it grinds slowly or rebounds will depend on the market's reaction at that time.
These past few days, Ethereum's volatility has outpaced Bitcoin's significantly, and they’ve been consolidating for a long time, ready for a big liquidation. Many trapped positions will have their stop-losses set at those critical levels mentioned above, so after triggering those stops, a continuation move is reasonable. For now, both coins are looking at 75500 and 2238 respectively. The second part will depend on how the market reacts moving forward.
Feels like I've been busy all of April, and with Labor Day coming up, I hope you can make some profit before then and take your family out for some fun. The overall result for March was great—just look back to see how great it was. Almost a three-week winning streak. So, I've basically taken three weeks off in April. Right now, I'm alone in the villa, feeling pretty lonely. #btc
Entering a short at the current price, the risk-reward ratio looks decent. I'm going to do a quick recap, trading around the divergences; even if the risk-reward is not great, it's still one-to-one. In other words, Bitcoin at 75500 and Ethereum around 2240 need to be tested. During this process, we might see some support at 76800 and 2286, but it's unlikely to hold.
Recently, folks have been asking me about urea and live pigs. Well, even though my focus is on the futures market, I did a bit of digging. The downside for live pigs seems limited; they won't drop much further before going sideways, until we kick off a major bull run. As for urea, due to geopolitical situations, we might see it pump for a month, potentially forcing some shorts to cover before it turns down. Now, regarding the crypto market—one word: bearish. With May Day around the corner, some traders are waking up, pulling funds from the big A to join me in the crypto space.
In March and April, the big A’s regulatory landscape changed drastically, releasing some bullish news that sparked liquidity. However, until the geopolitical tensions ease, it will keep applying pressure. Expect any substantial bullish news to come around July or August this year.
In March and April, the big A’s regulatory landscape changed drastically, releasing some bullish news that sparked liquidity. However, until the geopolitical tensions ease, it will keep applying pressure. Expect any substantial bullish news to come around July or August this year.
An hourly candlestick wiped out all gains from the past twenty-four hours. EMA, MA, and Bollinger Bands are all pointing down, and the TD indicator has also flipped to nine. Bitcoin can't even hold above eighty thousand, and we've had a two-level reversal. Over the weekend, it gave a little upward lick, but the market is heading down for a lick.
Well, I've said everything that needs to be said. Just don't go short and get caught!
I can catch some Z's because there's someone I trust keeping an eye on things. That's pretty solid.
The market was sideways for two days over the weekend. I've said it before, those short positions stuck at the bottom won't get an easy exit, and there hasn't even been a chance to catch a long. Let's see what Monday brings.
Doing our own thing
I forgot the password for an old account with a few thousand followers. The last update was months ago anyway. All the posts are basically the same, so just keep an eye on this.
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