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Crash alert sounded: Japan's 80% rate hike probability triggers a $19 trillion 'bomb'! Have you bottomed out on BTC? Remember the 2022 interest rate arbitrage disaster?

This morning BTC suddenly fell below 83000, did you think it was just a normal adjustment? I broke out in a cold sweat staring at the screen—just because of one number: 80%. The market is frantically betting on the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike in December, with the probability soaring to 80%, and even reaching 90% in January! This is not just a rate hike; it directly ignites the fuse for the global $19 trillion yen carry trade!

For global traders, this awakens painful memories of Christmas 2022. At that time, the Bank of Japan also unexpectedly adjusted its yield curve control (YCC) policy at the December meeting, raising the upper limit of the 10-year government bond yield from 0.25% to 0.5%, triggering severe turmoil in global markets.

Considering that December 19 is right before the Christmas holiday, market liquidity is typically at its annual low, and any unexpected tightening of policy could be amplified in a weak liquidity environment, triggering a new round of 'carry trade disaster'.

For decades, the near-zero interest rate yen has been borrowed and converted into dollars to rush into US stocks and the crypto market. Once Japan raises interest rates, a massive amount of funds will instantly flow back out. The result? BTC is the first to suffer. The data doesn't lie: BTC's monthly decline exceeds 20%, $3.5 billion lost in ETFs, over $400 million in a single night liquidation... the market is as fragile as paper.

Don't forget about the Federal Reserve! Powell did not mention policy tonight, which is even more frightening—the silence often precedes the storm. If Japan tightens and the US does not provide liquidity, BTC will face a 'double whammy' situation.

Look at BNB, it has fallen to heartbreak. The new officer Lina parachuted in as the BSC growth director, but the retail investors are almost gone; what can grow? On-chain projects have dropped below CZ's buy price, and the notorious penguin has long become a 'down-and-out penguin'. But don't panic, the most urgent is not you—but the new official and the exchanges. Market rescue? Maybe it's already on the way.

Remember: closing carry trades is just a short-term shock, not the end of the world. After Japan's interest rate hike in 2024, BTC will reach new highs within three months. Key points to watch: December BOJ meeting, Federal Reserve dot plot. Don't rush to go all in; manage your positions well; surviving is the key to eating the next wave of rebound.

So, now I ask you—#加密市场回调
Today, did you dare to bottom out? $BTC $ETH $DOGE

#bnb

Serious reminder and repeated warnings, please do not go to the Matcha exchange, especially for old members. If there is money in that exchange account, please withdraw it immediately.

Otherwise, as soon as they detect that you are a China user, they will immediately freeze and close your account. Moreover, all funds in your account will be confiscated without compensation. Remember, remember.

Personal experience, with pictures as proof.

#赵长鹏再次火上热搜 #何一女神

Daily tasks = daily rewards. TrendCoin is always active. 🔄
#TrendCoin

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Dec 3, 2025:
10:00AM (UTC+4) - Main Stage Day 1
6:30PM (UTC+4) - The Blockchain 100 Award Ceremony

Dec 4, 2025:
10:00AM (UTC+4) - Main Stage Day 2
3:55PM (UTC+4) - The Big Debate: Bitcoin vs. Tokenized Gold with CZ and Peter Schiff

See full Binance Blockchain Week agenda here

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