cryptan_whale

Key dates in December:

🇺🇸 10.12 — Fed:
The market is expecting a rate cut of 0.25%. This is the baseline scenario that will support positivity.

🛡 15.12 — ZEC at SEC:
The founder of Zcash is speaking before the regulator. We are expecting strong movements in privacy coins.

🇯🇵 19.12 — Bank of Japan (Main risk)
Remember the summer crash (2024) of BTC to $49k? It was caused by Japan's rate.
This time the market is prepared: there is no surprise effect, and we do not expect shock. However, sharp "liquidations" downward may occur around the 18th to 20th.

When is the best time to buy BTC?

There is an interesting indicator called SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio — it shows whether investors are selling their BTC at a profit or at a loss).

Historically, the best points for accumulation appeared when the SOPR dropped below 1 (when most long-term investors were selling at a loss), and the lowest points in the market were around 0.50.

Currently, the SOPR is at 1.40, which indicates that BTC is being sold at a profit and the market is still far from the zones of maximum attractiveness.

The previous end of QT with interest rate cuts coincided with the beginning of the bear market.

Today, December 1, QT officially ended, and a rate cut is expected at the next Fed meeting — is the cycle repeating?

There are almost no long positions left in the market (liquidation map)

➤ With a sharp rise in ETH to ~$3600, the volume of SHORT position liquidations will exceed $6,000,000,000

➤ With a sharp rise in BTC to ~$107,000, the volume of SHORT position liquidations will exceed $10,540,000,000

Cypherpunk Company purchased ZEC for an additional $18,000,000

▪Average purchase price: $602
▪Total balance: 233,644 ZEC (1.43% of circulating supply), purchased at an average price of $291

ZEC actively promotes Naval Ravikant

"Bitcoin is insurance against fiat, ZCash is insurance against Bitcoin" - a tweet, since the publication of which ZEC has made 7 times

*Naval Ravikant is one of the earliest and most influential supporters of the crypto industry, often referred to as a "crypto evangelist"

Biotechnology company Leap Therapeutics bought ZEC for $50,000,000 into its reserves

▪ On the balance: 203,775 ZEC.
▪ Average purchase price: $245.

At Leap Therapeutics (stocks listed on Nasdaq), they conducted a rebranding, changing the name to Cypherpunk Technologies, decided to create a ZEC reserve and raised $58m from Winklevoss Capital.

🤔 BitcoinOG (the very insider of the flash crash, associated with the Trump family) has again increased the long position on ETH.

In recent weeks, he has actively sold bitcoin and has been transferring part of the profit into ETH.

He is currently holding a position worth ~$200 million with a liquidation price of $2,841

The fourth quarter has not been this red since 2018

JPMorgan expects $170k for BTC with a horizon of 6 to 12 months

Theses:
- the largest liquidation event in history is behind us
- BTC has significantly lagged behind gold

Are whales dumping BTC?

The Spot order book shows how a wall of sell orders formed just above $105K — this level is currently acting as strong resistance for BTC.

This is what the liquidation map for BTC looks like now for 7 and 30 days.

As we can see, there is very little liquidity left in longs — if BTC suddenly drops to 89K, there will be only about $2 billion in liquidations.

On the other hand, for shorts — the opposite: a lot of liquidity has accumulated, starting from the 104K zone all the way to ATH.

Considering that the market moves from liquidity to liquidity, it’s just a matter of time before we start collecting liquidity in the 104-106K area.

The Aster exchange plans to launch its own private blockchain with zero fees

The CEO of ASTER noted that in the future, the DEX will have the ability to trade tokenized traditional assets (stocks, futures, etc.)

In addition, the project plans to launch a premarket for futures on new projects in partnership with Buidlpad.

Kor-alta since Trump took office 👀

⚪️XRP: -19% ⚪️TON: -54%
⚪️SOL: -30% ⚪️DOT: -55%
⚪️DOGE: -51% ⚪️UNI: -60%
⚪️ADA: -41% ⚪️PEPE: -61%
⚪️SUI: -51% ⚪️ENA: -58%
⚪️AVAX: -51%

Regarding yesterday's/today's sell-off

There was no negativity or statements from Trump — BTC just followed the fund, which corrected by ~1%. And with Bitcoin, the altcoins followed as well.

Why did the fund sell off? Most likely, the overheating factor came into play: almost every day it breaks ATH, and technically sooner or later there had to be a "cooling off". But, considering the trend, we hope this won't last long.

It's unpleasant; when the fund rises — crypto stays still, when the fund falls — crypto crashes with it.

Long-term holders sold 405,000 BTC ($43.4b) in the last 30 days

On the Large order book for BTC, strong support from whales is observed around $106.8k

Institutions are accumulating SOL

Already 20 companies have implemented a reserve storage strategy in Solana.

In total, they have acquired 20.41m SOL ($3.84b) – 3.55% of the total issuance.

CryptoQuant expects a correction in BTC in the range of $100,000-105,000, followed by a reversal.

The OI-Price Divergence 7D (%) metric indicates a critical imbalance between open interest and the value of BTC.