沉默的劉多余

Recently, EU regulatory issues have caused volatility in the cryptocurrency market.

From a long-term perspective, I have always supported the redistribution of liquidity. No single entity dominates crypto, and no one can be a long-term centralized ruler.

Regulation will inevitably become stricter. For cryptocurrencies, DEXs will keep growing stronger; CEXs are only a transitional step and a bridge between crypto and fiat.

In the long run, everyone’s interests in CEX will be harmed. Crypto has always had a curse: whoever is at the center of liquidity will suffer long-term setbacks.

CEX is basically a semi-criminal industry. It neither contributes blockchain technology nor produces a single cent of valuable goods.

Love it, take two dates. Don’t like it, get two slaps.

Besides global regulation in the EU tightening, it will also tighten domestically.

As for who becomes number one in the universe—there’s no fun in that.

Blockchain’s very design is meant to resist the idea that “whoever controls who becomes fragile.” In this industry, no organization can long-term go against this principle.

Crypto has no Morgan, no BlackRock, and certainly no Federal Reserve.

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Write that an airplane crashed into the China Zun building.

All day long, you talk in that sarcastic,阴阳怪气 way—East Third Ring Road, a single engine and two-seat aircraft, sporting aviation craft, high-rise buildings!

People like me, with poor reading comprehension, when I see that, I immediately think of a light missile with a single launcher and dual-rail system hitting a high-rise building at East Third Ring Road.

I don’t know when it started, but society gradually fell to a point where it was even worse than being below “Aas.”

Worse than the late Qing—back then, even the late Qing had freedom of the press. But it’s also kind of interesting: the Qing dynasty is where they started cracking down on literary speech, and as it went on, their ability to control society kept getting weaker, until the late Qing finally had freedom of the press.

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Actually, the local scene is interesting; if we can handle the pain of lockdowns during the pandemic, what else can we not endure?

Back then, there was a neighborhood nearby that had two jumps in three months, plus a couple of folks burning charcoal.

Those who got locked down and lost their income during that time really had it rough.

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It's outrageous, some folks actually think the domestic economy is better now than during the pandemic.

Back then, there was a strong call to distribute cash, and you could see posts on forums about people sleeping in bridge tunnels, surviving on instant noodles for months, and struggling to buy vegetables, with prices skyrocketing to over ten yuan a pound in some areas.

A friend in Shanghai, as soon as the lockdown was lifted, liquidated all his assets and moved abroad with his family.

He was pretty savvy, buying three big fridges before the lockdown and stocking up on food. There was a group back then where people in his neighborhood would open their windows and rant like crazy every day.

But most people weren’t as lucky as him. I even saw young people who came to work in the city walking home along the highway, begging for food. It wasn't exactly begging, though, as some villagers voluntarily brought them food.

It's truly outrageous. I don't really believe things are better now than during the pandemic. Back then, we had a buffer after the rapid growth; now it’s just pure contraction.

If we look at the data closely, it’s probably worse than most people imagine. Currently, all domestic economic indicators are off, and if you toss this data to any AI or a person involved in finance, they'll spot some significant discrepancies...

Moreover, during the pandemic, people could still hope for better days after the lockdown. Now we’re just in a super leveraged society.

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I saw a chain-based DEX competing with CEX coming a long time ago, and it's risen fast.

Two years back, I was also in the game, but the Hype was just too intense.

Man, it was wild; I didn't even have a chance to compete with those top dogs, so I just joined in and stacked up on more Hype.

The first-mover advantage in blockchain is massive, it creates a positive feedback loop that builds strong consensus.

Basically, any latecomers are toast.

There's only one way to disrupt this: starting from scratch and differentiating yourself, but that's as tough as Elon making reusable rockets, Jobs introducing the iPhone, or Satoshi launching Bitcoin.

Reaching the top is hard, but overturning the blockchain's first-mover consensus is even harder.

Stablecoins pegged to the USD are also creating a positive feedback loop on the blockchain; in the future, almost no fiat will compete with the dollar on-chain, and this strong consensus has made U the core foundational code of blockchain fiat.

$BTC $ETH $HYPE

Alright bros, get your funds ready to scoop up those lows.

Wait for me, I'm going to talk them into reaching a consensus and pump it up.

No need to bicker, we're all in the same game.

Once the clear legislation passes, C and B will officially be the top dogs in the universe.

We're all yellow-skinned and black-haired, we're basically family; why rush to tear each other apart?

Anzi's strategy has been off lately. I think I chatted with them about it two years ago, but didn't pay much mind, and it's become a mess. Back then, I mentioned to He Yi that 'Web3 wallets are the traffic bridge between on-chain and CEX, and creating a small on-chain marketplace would help ease competition and facilitate trading.' If I can propose it, I obviously know the pros and cons, but let's not be too aggressive; I'm just a small player.

Looking back, it seems pretty boring.~

OK has maintained a stable lead in technology and internationalization, but its credibility is low, and growth is quite limited. All these talking heads face the same issue; it's tough to handle large institutional funds.

My personal suggestion is to take advantage of this dip and focus on stable projects like DeFi. Life's opportunities are few, so seize the midterm elections and the clear legislation passing.

Get ready for a pump.

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From a psychological angle, those who took out loans to buy a house in the past did well, finding a 'cage' that eliminates laziness for the second half of life.

Psychologically, people really need this kind of 'anchor.' Without pressure, many get stuck in their comfort zones, take it easy, or waste energy on ineffective conflicts. Once you carry a 30-year mortgage, your survival mode switches; overtime doesn’t feel sweet anymore? Switching jobs feels risky? Gotta hustle on that side gig? Need to rein in the spending?

These things that seem like sacrifices actually help many build discipline and cash flow awareness over the long haul.

I've never overspent a single penny in advance.

I’ve always been pretty laid-back, with a very irregular routine.

Sometimes I really dislike the 'carefree life.'

When I was younger, I often stayed up all night working, and besides work, I had to dine out with friends every day, taking care of everyone's emotional needs.

Back then, I spent a lot of time every morning getting dressed, leaving home in different outfits daily; my clothes and bedding were organized like a 'military camp,' leading to a serious case of 'OCD.' I always cared about everyone’s opinions and made various friends.

One time, I got drunk and fell asleep on the toilet; when I woke up, I realized life is just a long and mostly dull journey, regardless of the path.

Why make it hard on myself?

Since then, I’ve drastically reduced my social circle, and the worries just faded away…

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The essence of modern finance is really just a trading system built by a bunch of second or third-rate folks with backgrounds in 'physics, chemistry, and mathematics,' using logical engineering. They've disrupted the traditional 'gut feeling' market through random processes, modeling, systems thinking, programming skills, and risk management.

Today, the world's powerful financial institutions all operate under the same logic, where data is the principle.

Firms like BlackRock and Simons are 'super financial institutions' that thrive on data modeling. There's a common misconception among some in the financial market that the top-tier researchers in the sciences (Nobel Prize winners) are somehow better off not engaging in finance; this is a misguided and ignorant argument.

As for why those top Nobel winners don’t join the financial markets, it’s because the finance space is too small to accommodate giants. They are more interested in modeling and understanding the 'truths of the universe' rather than just 'cold hard cash.'

Among the top 100 CEOs globally, science and engineering graduates outnumber MBA holders significantly, and that gap continues to widen.

A modern financial institution's ability to sustain growth should be assessed by whether the authority of the STEM graduates surpasses that of the MBA holders.

A top-notch financial institution should prioritize hiring engineers over economists in their recruitment process.

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The deleveraging paths in China, the US, and Japan are different. The risks we face are also distinct, but the most complex factor is ourselves. We've entered a 'population ice age.' Instead of calling it super-aging, we should recognize that it's the largest, fastest, and most persistent 'elder factory' in human history, with irreversible effects that deeply impact society.

Back in the day, Japan only had a real estate bubble and then chose a low-growth model to deleverage.

What we are facing includes a real estate bubble, local debt, corporate debt, household debt, and the most alarming risk of 'physical sterilization' that leaves us with the hidden dangers of a 'population ice age.' We shouldn't label ourselves as a super-aging country.

Soon, the aging population will surpass the total population of the US by a significant margin.

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The political history of humanity over the past few centuries is essentially a story of constantly adjusting the rights to resource allocation.

Europe transitioned from feudal monarchy to parliamentary politics, while America evolved from its founding to the civil rights movement, experiencing countless debates over power boundaries and resource distribution rights.

Due to the long-standing historical and current environment, a significant portion of the population is more inclined to accept the order and security provided by authority. However, with changes in education levels, income levels, and social structures, discussions about individual rights, wealth distribution, and public participation are on the rise.

Looking back, the development trajectories of Japan, South Korea, and the West are quite similar after our reform and opening up; they all imposed constraints on resource allocation rights. After 1978, our system shifted from centralized control to 'reducing administrative intervention,' allowing power to gradually exit certain areas of resource allocation and enabling more social entities to participate in wealth creation and distribution.

From this angle, the development of many countries and regions does not have any mysterious grand strategies. The common pattern is often that when power is constrained, property rights are secured, and individuals have stable expectations, society spontaneously creates wealth.

Currently, the world faces a dilemma: as AI and capital begin to concentrate resource allocation capabilities, will the new 'rights to resource distribution' flow back to a few entities or countries?

American society is also in a state of anxiety, as we can see discussions among the government, capital, tech giants, and the public on how to address the wealth concentration issue brought by AI, leading to conversations around UBI (Universal Basic Income).

Thus, if we do not pursue redistribution reform, we are inevitably heading down a dead-end.

Although Qiushi has published articles on resource redistribution, historically, our actions on resource redistribution often lag behind our words.

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The sun has risen from the west, and 'Qiushe' is also starting to reflect on the distribution system and residents' assets and liabilities?

We need to boost consumption with more force.

I thought I was the only one throwing shade? It would have been great if more folks joined my squad to throw shade too👌

However, even though 'Qiushe' is the party's official pen, I wonder how long it will take for the policies to trickle down.

Going down the old path is a dead end. I don’t want to see my later years plagued by social unrest caused by economic distribution issues affecting my family and friends.

The gig economy can't grow any larger, and state-owned enterprises can't expand anymore.

Otherwise, when AI productivity explodes and wealth keeps siphoning to the top, we will inevitably see major social unrest. No matter where you are, or where you immigrate to, there's always family and friends back home.

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Israel: For every Israeli mother shedding tears, there should be a thousand Lebanese mothers to repay. After the escalation of the situation with Hezbollah, all of Lebanon should be burned down.

Iran's Revolutionary Guard: Ready to bring catastrophic defeat to the enemy.

Israel's aftermath is quite intense, the right wing is like rabid dogs.

Similar to historical figures like Han Wudi and Zhu Di.

One said, "Whoever offends our strong Han, even if they're far away, must be punished; if the enemy can advance, I can advance too."

Another said, "The Son of Heaven guards the national gate; the king dies for the state. Northward campaigns against the Xiongnu to eliminate future threats."

These are all the aftereffects of war, sensitive dynamics. Even if it leads to the country's decline and carries controversy, the fight must go on.

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Current Employment Structure and Living Conditions in the Country

🟢 Stable Sectors:

Public Sector
Core Positions in State-Owned Enterprises
High-End Manufacturing/AI/Research
Core White-Collar Workers in Tier 1 Cities (Some)

🟡 Pressure Zones:

Mid-Level Internet Jobs
Real Estate Chains
Education/Training and Consumer Services
Regular White-Collar Workers

🔴 Flexible Employment Expansion Zones:

Food Delivery/Instant Logistics
Live Streaming/Short Videos
Small Businesses/Sole Proprietors
Non-Standard Contract Labor

Currently, under the government’s promotion of all things positive, the people who are being sarcastic should find themselves in the red zone. As AI continuously boosts productivity without effective redistribution, those in the yellow zone will join the red zone from being unnoticed and indifferent.

Individuals in the yellow zone have high knowledge, strong integration skills, and significant resource demands. If they join the red group, it won't just be about sarcastic comments in the chat.

Historically, all social upheavals have stemmed from the yellow zone group.

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In theory, whether domestic state-owned enterprises are willing to share profits and implement a universal dividend mechanism, they will eventually share profits.

In the future, there might only be two economic models to choose from:

How to allocate the production profits brought by AI

Or not allocate at all, leading to the demise of the government along with it.

Wealth in the future will definitely be more concentrated than in the past. When wealth is concentrated and not effectively distributed, it will naturally face extinction.

Without a plan for an effective distribution system, we might see significant social unrest by the middle of this century, or even earlier, depending on the extent of AI's control over productivity.

So, Wang Chuanfu's statement, "black factory, productivity incredibly strong," essentially implies that without an effective distribution system, unimaginable disasters could occur.

Not just us, but US capital and the government are also preparing.

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Biden reminisced on a show, where our leader asked him, "What makes America think it has Pacific hegemony?" Biden replied, "Because we are the Pacific hegemony."

He then countered, "If America didn't hold Pacific hegemony, what would China look like today?" We had no response to that.

The host's follow-up was pretty interesting, explaining how America became a hegemon, recounting how Japanese POWs were treated post-war. American guards provided meat, Coca-Cola, and burgers to Japanese POWs, who initially feared the food was poisoned but eventually started eating. When a Japanese POW asked an American soldier why they were treated so well, the soldier replied, "One day, we will be friends."

In fact, the European front was similar; German soldiers risked everything to run to American POW camps, preferring to die as American prisoners. This included Wernher von Braun, the father of American rocketry, who escaped to an American POW camp and conversed with American soldiers like an officer.

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The real uncertainty of the US-Iran deal comes from Israel.

A lot of folks criticize Israel for its long-standing hardline policies, saying Netanyahu is always picking fights and ramping up regional tensions. But if you flip the script and look at it from Israel's perspective, their security anxiety isn't without its historical baggage.

After its establishment, Israel faced multiple assaults from neighboring countries, especially during the '73 Yom Kippur War, which left deep scars on the nation’s psyche. Since then, a mindset has developed in Israel's strategic circles: better to strike first than to wait until a threat fully materializes before taking action.

What Israel fears most isn't necessarily today's Iran, but the prospect of a future Iran boasting a population nearing 100 million, fully industrialized, with enhanced tech capabilities and modernized military strength, while still being hostile towards Israel.

From Iran's viewpoint, developing its own capabilities is a normal national right; from Israel's angle, Iran's strengthening itself could pose a potential threat. Both sides think they’re just protecting themselves, yet they view each other's actions as aggressive.

Israel's behavior can seem like that of a rabid dog, driven by historical trauma, having narrowly escaped annihilation several times. Even if Netanyahu commits war crimes and ends up in jail, he feels the need to act like a rabid dog.

Historically, powerful leaders have always been like this.

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It probably won't reverse, but there are too many interest groups in Iran, so it's hard to say. The internal six factions make it tough to balance interests.

Reformists + Pragmatists + Technocrats VS Revolutionary Guards + Hardline Clerics + Radical Purists

Overall, it shouldn't go wrong; the warlord families value their lives. If external forces get involved, the internal situation will get unstable.

Back when the domestic reforms happened, it wasn't because the reformists won, but rather because the existing interest groups realized that the cost of continued resistance was higher than the benefits of opening up.

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Tapering

Tapering + rate cuts executed simultaneously

Two options, 50/50 chance; if tapering kicks in first, the entire financial market will be like a rollercoaster, which won't be good for the U.S. economy.

Tapering + rate cuts executed together will lead to a quick split in market liquidity.

Rate hikes are basically off the table.

The Fed is facing a 'Trump' moment, making it hard to predict.

From here on out, the financial markets will likely experience wild swings; the new leverage executioner 🥷.

Some institutions with excessive leverage are likely to get sliced through by 'Walsh'; he doesn't care about short-term fluctuations, as long as the outcome is positive. How long it takes for that outcome? That's purely up to fate.

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The market's jittery about the Fed's hawkish comments aiming for a 2% inflation target, but I think it's totally unnecessary.

The key takeaway from yesterday was that the Fed needs reform; the whole framework and decision-making process need a serious overhaul.

Throughout the meeting, one thing stood out: the Fed's mechanisms are outdated. The market should be valuing assets on its own instead of fixating on the Fed.

The crypto market is also set to embrace new opportunities. Reforms in the dollar system will be deeply intertwined with stablecoins, tokenized assets, and blockchain payment networks.

Trends of the times

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It's fun too 😆

Old Xu got stuck holding the bag after going long on Bitcoin at 110k last year.

That definitely planted the seeds for revenge.

Of course, that's just a joke; the real trigger was MeMe...

After years of silence, the OB battle ignited all at once, and there's no turning back now.

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