President Trump continues to extend the ceasefire with Iran
The main reason given is that the U.S. believes the Iranian government is seriously divided, and they will postpone action until this nation's state is unified. However, the U.S. will still maintain a state of combat readiness at any time.
According to CNN, the U.S. has depleted a large amount of weapons, including missiles, and it will take the next 5 years to produce enough to replace them. Estonia's Minister of Defense, Pevkur, stated that military equipment supply will be temporarily halted until the end of the war in Iran. The likelihood is very high that the ceasefire will last, possibly for several months to the end of the year.
Meanwhile, the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Mohammed Bagher Galibaf, declared that Trump's extension of the ceasefire agreement is a scheme to carry out another surprise attack. Iran is fully aware of this and is not afraid.
Chứng khoán Mỹ đạt mức cao kỷ lục, với S&P 500 và Nasdaq cùng lập đỉnh mới, trong khi Vàng, Dầu và Bitcoin chững lại.
Lệnh ngừng bắn hai tuần đã trôi qua hơn một nửa và chỉ còn chưa đầy một tuần nữa là hết hạn. Trên chiến trường chưa có diễn biến mới, mọi sự chú ý đều đổ dồn về các nỗ lực ngoại giao và tình hình eo biển Hormuz:
- Theo Bloomberg, Mỹ và Iran đang cân nhắc gia hạn lệnh ngừng bắn thêm hai tuần nữa để tạo thêm thời gian cho các cuộc đàm phán hòa bình.
- Tổng Tham mưu trưởng Pakistan đã đến Tehran để thúc đẩy nối lại đàm phán Mỹ-Iran. Hiện tại, các nước trung gian như Pakistan, Ai Cập và Thổ Nhĩ Kỳ đang tích cực đối thoại nhằm đưa hai phái đoàn Mỹ và Iran ngồi lại trước khi lệnh ngừng bắn hết hạn vào ngày 21/4.
- Tại Hormuz, sau 48 giờ phong tỏa, phía Mỹ thông báo 10 tàu đã bị buộc quay đầu, không có tàu nào thuộc diện phong tỏa vượt qua được.
Song song đó, Mỹ tiếp tục áp thêm các biện pháp trừng phạt đối với ngành dầu mỏ Iran khi:
Mỹ đã trừng phạt hơn 20 cá nhân, công ty và tàu thuyền liên quan đến xuất khẩu dầu khí của Iran. Đồng thời, Mỹ cũng tái áp đặt toàn bộ các lệnh trừng phạt đối với dầu mỏ của Iran, sau khi giấy phép một tháng cho phép Tehran bán lượng dầu tồn đọng trên các tàu chở dầu ngoài khơi hết hiệu lực vào ngày 19/4. Bộ trưởng Tài chính Bessent cảnh báo sẽ áp dụng trừng phạt thứ cấp đối với các quốc gia mua dầu Iran.
Trong khi đó, Thượng viện Mỹ đã lần thứ tư bác bỏ nghị quyết chấm dứt xung đột với Iran, cuộc chiến đã kéo dài gần 50 ngày. Điều này cho thấy Mỹ vẫn sẵn sàng leo thang nếu ngoại giao thất bại và áp lực buộc Iran quay lại bàn đàm phán đang ngày càng tăng.
Last week, Strategy spent 1 billion dollars to aggressively buy an additional 13,927 Bitcoin at an average price of about 71,902 dollars per Bitcoin. This is the second consecutive week the company has added Bitcoin to its reserves, bringing the total number of Bitcoin held to 780,897 Bitcoin at an average purchase price of 75,577 dollars per Bitcoin. #StrategyBTCPurchase
🔥 The market continues to be immersed in red at the beginning of the week.
The main pressure comes from the U.S., especially from Mr. Trump: - The U.S. Navy bans blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. - Threatens a 50% tariff if China continues trading with Iran.
Tomorrow, U.S.-Iran negotiations will take place in Islamabad (Pakistan) amid Iran having put forward at least three different "10-point proposals." Bloomberg has selected the most hardline version, which is being widely analyzed:
1️⃣ Six points the U.S. is likely to accept: - Commitment not to attack Iran - Lifting all primary sanctions - Lifting all secondary sanctions - Canceling UN Security Council resolutions aimed at Iran - Canceling IAEA Board of Governors resolutions - Ending war on all fronts, including Lebanon
2️⃣ Two points the U.S. is still considering, depending on accompanying conditions and domestic political pressure: - Accepting Iran's right to enrich uranium - Withdrawing U.S. combat forces from the region
3️⃣ Two points the U.S. is almost certain to reject, as they relate to international maritime sovereignty and U.S. financial interests: - Recognizing Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz - Compensating Iran for war damages
On the Israeli side🇮🇱, Bloomberg predicts they will almost entirely oppose the above list. If the U.S. genuinely wants to reach an agreement, they must negotiate with Iran while also convincing Israel to participate in this process.
Expectations for a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran are increasing, according to Axios. The U.S., Iran, and mediators are discussing terms for a ceasefire lasting 45 days, which could pave the way for a permanent end to the war.
The parties are reportedly discussing a two-phase agreement:
1️⃣ A 45-day ceasefire, which could be extended if more time is needed for negotiations. 2️⃣ A formal peace agreement to end the war.
Two main issues are the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's high-enriched uranium. Iran's high-enriched uranium is likely to be addressed only in the final phase, as it is their bargaining chip.
On Polymarket, betting odds on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire have increased:
- Before the end of April: 18% to 28% - Before the end of May: 34% to 42% - Before the end of June: 46% to 53%
In summary, as the war enters its sixth week, the media believes that both sides are beginning to feel fatigued due to the excessive resources spent, leading to expectations of an agreement to temporarily ease tensions soon.
US stocks explode, adding $1.75T in market capitalization. Gold continues to rise above $4,700/oz. Crypto is also flourishing, BTC surpasses $68K. What is happening? The US and Iran FOR THE FIRST TIME send signals of peace together: 🇺🇸 President Trump: The US may withdraw troops within "2-3 weeks" - This is seen as the clearest statement from the US President about the intent to soon end the war that has lasted more than a month in Iran.
🔥 There may be one more deep drop before the real opportunity appears
Data from Cryptoquant shows that the unrealized profit of long-term holders has plummeted from around 58% to only 3% in just 140 days
In previous cycles, BTC usually only creates a clear bottom when the long-term holder group has nearly exhausted their profits over a period of several months
Data also shows that major bottom zones in the past often appear after 6 to 277 days of prolonged pressure, rather than forming immediately after a sharp drop
$BTC prepare to close the monthly and quarterly candles (3M) so price fluctuations in the next 24 hours will be quite significant, be careful long-short bros!
🔥 Mr. Trump announced that many targets in Iran have been destroyed
"This was accomplished by the most elite and dangerous forces in the world"
Previously, Mr. Trump also asserted to consider seizing Iran's Kharg Island.
There is still a 10-day ceasefire period in effect according to Mr. Trump's previous order (until April 6).
=> $BTC and $XAU are recovering quite well in the first session of the week, while the USD is decreasing, contrary to the predictions of most investors.
Oil prices fell more than 5%. U.S. stocks plunged into the red but have narrowed their losses compared to earlier in the session. Gold prices recovered strongly, surpassing the $4,500/oz mark. Bitcoin also returned above $70K. 🇺🇸🇮🇷 Many details about the negotiations have emerged: - Pakistan confirms it is mediating and is ready to organize negotiations if both sides agree. - The Iranian Foreign Ministry acknowledged that it has received a request for negotiations from the U.S. through several intermediary countries.
Last week's strategy spent $76.6M to acquire an additional 1,031 BTC at an average price of ~$74,326 / BTC.
For the 13th consecutive week, the company has added more Bitcoin to its reserves, bringing the total holdings to 762,099 BTC at an average purchase price of $75,694 / BTC. #Strategy