加密老四

Yesterday's four-hour triangle false breakout caused all the automatic trend lines in the system to disappear, and I had to draw them by hand.

Tomorrow night, after the interest rate cut is finalized, there will be a press conference. It is expected that in the following 72 hours, BTC will have a fluctuation of 5 points up or down.

This means that your contract has a risk of liquidation even with more than 10 times leverage.

The big one is coming～

炫富确实是个问题。

这次绑架案当事人蓝战非，此前主动公开爆料，自己年收九位数。然后在抖音商业报价是 150 万，单个广子。

这么公开的一位老哥，被绑匪提前半年盯上做局，然后到了南非，就被有组织的跟踪，并最终被劫持，能后续人没事回来，真的算幸运了。

One of the world's asset management giants, Fidelity Investments, has its CEO stating: I like Bitcoin and hold it; it is the gold standard in the world of cryptocurrency.

It will play a role at the level of people's savings. I hope to become one of those who helps everyone access Bitcoin more easily.

Tell an amazing truth, altcoins will belong to the hunting ground in 2025

"The market lacks liquidity" is probably the most heard phrase, everyone is saying that liquidity determines the size of the market, fundamentally, there is nothing wrong with understanding it this way, but from another perspective

The projects have no innovation, the same narrative is just dressed up differently, from the metaverse to RWA to AI, even the project teams themselves don't believe it, so how can you expect retail investors to take over

The team has not established itself, the community is not built, and they come up with a market value of tens of billions, clearly telling you "I'm here to cash out from the start"

As a result, funds only dare to cluster around the top, 90% of altcoins have become "zombie coins", the project teams pull a little and then get crushed, they simply lie flat, new coins go online and immediately break the issue price, they don't even have the patience to draw charts anymore

In the past, it was "hold on and become rich", now it is "run slowly and get buried", the rhythm has changed to: quick in, quick out, stop loss decisively, one wave of rebound without escaping the peak, the next time to break even may have to wait for another round of bull and bear

Right now, either you have insider information and run faster than the project teams, or you only play with the most certain leading coins, don't ask "which one will be a hundred times", first ask yourself: "How many people have run away from this position, am I the last batch, the altcoin battlefield in 2025 is a hunting ground for professional hunters, not a playground for retail investors"

If the current situation is the early stage of a bear market, then this round of rebound is the last exit opportunity for bulls. What we need to consider next is where the highest point of this rebound will be?

In the early stage of a bear market, the rebound is quite strong. In the last bear market's early stage, when it dropped near 33,000 for the second time, it eventually rebounded to 48,000, with a rebound rate of over 40%. If we look at this rebound rate now, a rebound of 40% from 80,000 would be 110,000;

At least my trading strategy for December is to short at highs. In addition, considering the dense trading area of chips and the maximum delivery pain point of the high volume options on December 26 is 100,000, I believe the possibility of stabilizing above 100,000 in December is relatively low;

If the market situation in December does not meet my expected judgment, then my stop-loss price for short positions will also be after Bitcoin stabilizes above 100,000, excluding short-term trades, because a profit of 1,000 to 2,000 points in short-term trading is already enough to exit, and stop-loss is often around 1,000 points.

Scary data.

Since the official launch of Ondo's US stock tokens within the Binance app's built-in wallet last week, approximately 37.3 million US dollars worth of stock tokens have been minted on the chain over the past 3 days.

Today, Binance co-founder He Yi responded on-site that the launch of this section was in response to the investment needs of the majority of wallet users.

Note: Ondo's US stock tokens are issued and minted on-chain, and are matched by brokers to ensure that the prices synchronize with the stock prices.

ETH Market Analysis:

Ethereum has performed quite well this time, at least keeping up with the rhythm. The rebound peak has exceeded $3200, and currently, it looks a bit like a little old lady going up the stairs, with small steps of increase. I'm really worried that if we're not careful, it could crash down directly!

From the four-hour chart perspective, we are close to the overall downtrend line. The hourly level has also shown a standard head and shoulders pattern, but the price is still being maintained. Pay attention to the upcoming movements, with the upper pressure downtrend line around 3250. The short-term support below is in the range of 3080-3050!

Operational suggestion: For those who want to short, they can look at the 3250 pressure area on the four-hour level, which has a higher cost-performance ratio. A valid breakthrough in four hours would be a loss, while below, watch for reactions near the support!

Next, focus on bsc

Reasons

1. Sister is the co-CEO, as we all know, Sister likes memes
2. I saw a picture saying that Sister mentioned in the meeting that they want to create more interesting Binance memes
3. A while ago, the two alphas with low market capitalization had already given signals

The recent trading volume of FIR on the Binance Alpha platform has surged, backed by an innovative ecosystem that combines AI and music, showing strong development momentum. Several popular songs have already achieved excellent results on the platform, such as Kay Tse's new song "Cheng Guang Zhu Meng" ranking second on the Tencent Music chart, with cumulative plays exceeding 100 million, bringing considerable copyright revenue. Today, FIR announced significant positive news, expecting copyright revenue to exceed 30 million USD by 2026. In addition, a "copyright pledge pool" mechanism will be launched at the end of December, where all users participating in FIR-LP will share 50% of the copyright revenue (settled in USDT). Currently, FIR's market value is only about 6 million USD, still in its early stages, and with increased trading volume and positive news gradually being realized, it has a low market value and huge growth potential, which may lead to significant increases in the short term. It is recommended to consider building positions in a timely manner and patiently waiting for further positive developments.

#FIR

The monthly death cross has arrived, and the second month of the monthly death cross aligns with the behavior of the main players. There are currently two possible scenarios:

1. A rebound to around 100,000 before the death cross in March, reaching a peak, followed by a decline of 45%-50% over several months to the bottom;

2. A rebound to the previous high before the death cross in March, reaching a peak, followed by a decline of 45%-50% over several months to the bottom;

In these two months, we will first look at the rebound of the monthly death cross and try not to chase short positions.

I have been monitoring the dynamics of Japan's interest rate hike information since the Golden Week on October 11. Because the halving day of this round of BTC and the last round both fall in April, if the laws of the larger cycle still hold, then October to December is basically the end of a bull market and the beginning of a bear market. The most important information that could completely bring BTC into the next bear market cycle is Japan's interest rate hike. After all, it has been nearly 10 months since the last interest rate cut, and a third interest rate hike in December or January is logical. This timing just happens to be the period that concludes the bull market phase of this larger bull-bear cycle.

If everything operates according to laws or principles, then the internal logic and connections of these events constitute the laws of its operation.

Here's another good news: after the total market value of stablecoins stopped growing for a month, it has started to grow again this week!

Previously, I mentioned the three key signals that indicate the end of a bull market:

1. Stagnation in the growth of stablecoins;

2. BTC price falling below the upper limit of the ASR fluctuation channel;

3. The super trend indicator's 12-day line showing a sell signal;

Last week, all these conditions were already met...

But miraculously, two of the signals were retracted this week!

Currently, only the ASR weekly channel indicates the end of the bull market, and it signaled this over two weeks ago...

The market is terrible, and the altcoins in hand have become a painful burden.

Cutting losses is painful, holding on is distressing.

But to be fair, the only coins that truly make you hesitate are those few that you never want to sell off, believing there’s still a chance to break even?