安知予之乐

Why can't ETH rise? Do you really understand?
In the past two rounds of bull market, ETH was as popular as BTC and was simply a superstar. But this time, ETH obviously underperformed BTC. What's going on? Is it the rise of new public chains such as SOL? In fact, the deeper reason is the "vampire" problem that ETH is facing now: the L2 ecosystem is eroding the market value of ETH.

ETH's "highlight" is a thing of the past
Compared with the peak period of the last bull market, ETH's performance is not very good, and several key indicators are declining:

1. TVL (total locked volume): from 100 billion to 64 billion, a 40% decrease.
2. Protocol income: only 30 million US dollars per week, 500 million at the peak of the last round.
3. Number of active addresses: only 500,000 per day, less than one-third of the previous round.
However, ETH's market value has recovered to 70% of its peak. Judging from these data, ETH seems to be "fat", no wonder some people began to question whether it is overvalued.

L2: ETH's "vampire"
The rise of L2 has indeed brought a better trading experience, with lower GAS fees and faster speed. But at the same time, L2 has also dealt a fatal blow to ETH:
1. TVL was diverted: L2 sucked away 15% of the locked funds.
2. Active address exodus: More than 80% of ETH users have switched to L2.
3. Revenue plummeted: Because L2 reduced the demand for on-chain transactions, ETH's protocol revenue plummeted by 90%.
What's worse is that L2 itself is still growing on its own - tokens like ARB and OP have risen, with market capitalizations of tens of billions, which has completely diverted ETH's market attention.
There are greater hidden dangers in the future
If you think ETH has bottomed out, it may be a bit too optimistic:
1. BASE may issue coins: If Coinbase's L2 network BASE starts issuing coins, this will further snatch ETH's capital flow.
2. UNICHAIN ​​rumors: If big players like Uniswap also migrate to L2 to build their own chains, ETH's burning mechanism will be almost useless.
Moreover, ETH's market value model originally relied on GAS fee burning to achieve deflation, but the existence of L2 makes all this empty talk. Do you think L2 is a good helper for ETH? No, in fact, it is slowly draining the value of ETH.

Can ETH still rise?
The answer is that it can rise, but don't expect it to rise as much as before. The rise of L2 has turned ETH from a former giant into a "strong on the outside but weak on the inside" character.Do you think ETH can return to its former glory?

Every bull market is like this. Didn't the bull market of 20 years experience this?

BTC rises first, attracting a lot of funds. When it reaches over 30,000, its market share reaches about 70%. At this point, altcoins start to surge wildly.

At first, everyone complains about altcoins every day: BTC rises while altcoins fall, BTC is sideways while altcoins fall, BTC falls and altcoins continue to follow.

If you truly have the ability to see the problem from a global perspective, then when the market share is low, exchange all funds for BTC, and then when BTC rises to 80,000 or 90,000, exchange back to those altcoins that haven't risen.

But 95% of people do not have this ability, and I am certainly no exception.

So rather than complaining daily and showcasing one’s incompetence, it’s better to review and strive for a better perspective in the next bull market.

Over 1.7 million bought $1, for BSC's second phase, try to choose those that aren't relying on news and have not run out of steam!

Brothers who enjoy chasing meme coins and playing in the second phase really need to be more cautious. Although this wave of the two saints has revitalized BSC's liquidity, don’t just look at ATH surging over a million; many new projects are actually just 'one-hit wonders', fleeting moments.

For example, I made 20 times on BUBBLE the day before yesterday, and last night’s 300 million users only held strong for a few hours before a continuous decline to new lows. To put it bluntly, the concepts of these types of projects rely on trending news for traffic, which is very low in timeliness.

When playing in the second phase, it's best to pick non-news related concepts that can sustain expectations.

For instance, $1, which follows the concept of the leading sister, as long as she continues to support Binance's banner, it still has the potential to reach new highs. The 1-hour K-line shows a clear bottoming out, and the daily line is also starting to rise. The first wave should have been washed out sufficiently, and it firmly maintains a market value of one million; compared to other projects, it is relatively stable.

COAI

A massive short liquidation wall appears above the price + ample funds + high open interest: a textbook short squeeze pattern.

Key Signals

Heatmap: A huge yellow wall from $0.52 to $4 to $5: a large number of shorts waiting to be forcibly liquidated. Extremely bullish.

Funding Rate: ≈ 0% >> Market is not overheated.

Open Interest: $16.59 million >> A large number of short positions are trapped + insufficient liquidity >> Rapid price fluctuations.

Price Target: Accumulation target: $0.50 to $1; target price range: $4 to $6 to $9, and if a short squeeze is triggered, the target price could reach $12.

Bias: Bullish. Risk: A liquidity sweep may occur below, but the structure favors an upward movement.

Conclusion: COAI is ready for a vertical short squeeze.

FIL

A massive short liquidation wall + trendline breakout + neutral funding: an extremely bullish pattern.

Key Signals

Heatmap: Around $1.47, $2, $2.4, $3, and $3.6 there is a large amount of short liquidity.

Bullish strength is weak >> Perfect short liquidation fuel.

Trendline: The downtrend line has been broken; price retest: early accumulation.

Funding: ~0% >> Clean, not overheated.

Open Interest: $25 million >> Shorts are trapped.

Target Price Levels: Hold above $1.267 >> Short liquidation target prices: $2, $2.4, $3 to $3.6.

Bias: Strongly bullish. FIL is under a massive short wall, likely to see explosive movement.

BTC

After falling to 80600 on November 21, I said there were signs of a bottoming out. The next day, I also reminded that there would be a rebound, and as a result, BTC surged nearly 17%. So, has this rebound really ended?

If we understand this rise starting from 80600 as a rebound against the entire drop from 126000 to 80600, and if we don't make new lows in the short term, then this wave is a daily-level rebound trend. Based on the current structure, it is very likely that it is not finished yet.

Still using the previous logic:

Blue route:

As long as BTC can firmly stay above 91000, there is hope for the first rebound to reach a higher point before entering a correction.

Red route:

If BTC cannot stabilize above 91000 in the coming days, we can basically consider that the first rise at the 4-hour level has peaked at 94100, and we are currently experiencing a correction after this rise. Once the correction is complete, there will be another rebound of the same level, overall completing the daily-level rebound from 80600, and then continuing to decline.

In simple terms, both routes lead to the same conclusion: the rebound is not over yet.

If it moves down in the short term, it looks more like a pullback of the rise from 80600 to 94100. After the pullback ends, there will still be opportunities to catch the next segment of the rebound.

Personally, I think the probability of the script “94100 directly peaking and then BTC starting a new round of major decline” is relatively low. But since we cannot completely rule it out, it's prudent to keep an eye out for unexpected situations when formulating trading strategies.

ASTER

Today the market is generally declining, and ASTER has fallen back to the psychological level of 1.00 USD, currently striving to hold this position.

Holding this price level is crucial; otherwise, it may fall further, even retesting the downward trend line.

The primary goal now is to stabilize above 1.00 USD. After that, if the overall market cooperates, it can attempt to break through 1.086 USD, striving for a trend reversal.

COAI

The current price is $0.511, sitting above a significant area of liquidity accumulation for both bulls and bears, which is a perfect bidirectional stop-loss hunting zone.

Heatmap: There is abundant liquidity below (bullish) and above (bearish) >> Vortex: High-risk volatility

Capital Occupation: ~0.005% (neutral)

Order Book Ratio: -0.07 >> Selling pressure is dominant

Tendency: Neutral >> Bearish.

The price may clear long positions before a real rebound occurs.

ETH

Since the clear strengthening on November 22, it has risen by over 19%. Now it's starting to pull back, can it continue to rise afterwards?

As shown in Figure 1, ETH has two possible paths for this rise starting from 2716: red and blue. The red level is relatively small, just a rebound from a previous drop; the blue level is larger, representing a reversal on the daily chart, targeting the entire decline that started from 4956.

I have repeatedly emphasized the key range of 3120-3150, which is the turning point for this wave of market. For ETH to amplify this rise into a daily level market, the daily close must be above this range, which is very critical. If it cannot close above, it indicates that the first phase of the rise might be coming to an end, and this adjustment could potentially evolve into a new round of decline. (However, even if it follows the red level, a new drop would mean that the true bottom will be found, and thereafter, a wave of daily level rebound will still come, so it’s not necessarily a bad thing.)

Next, keep an eye on the Gann time on December 8, as it may provide a key signal to help determine whether the current market is following the red or blue structure. Further time points are in mid-December and early January; once the market structure is clearer, I will provide more precise timing.

BTC

After my prompt on 11.22, BTC has seen a maximum increase of over 18%. This wave of increase has been relatively smooth to operate, and I provided everyone with two opportunities to enter earlier. On 12.1, there was also a significant pullback, which I had reminded everyone about.

Now BTC has made a strong adjustment on the hourly level. After the adjustment ends, it is very likely to continue its upward momentum. Pay attention to the range of 96000-97000 above; if there is resistance here, it may trigger the first 4-hour level adjustment starting from 80600. At that time, keep an eye on the market and seize the opportunity to take profits.

There are three very critical time points in December, and the market in the next three weeks will basically fluctuate around these three events. Let me summarize them briefly for you:

First: December 11, Federal Reserve interest rate decision.

Originally, the market expected no interest rate cuts in December, but now the probability of a rate cut has been driven up to around 87%.

Second: December 19, Bank of Japan interest rate decision.

The market previously believed that the Bank of Japan would not raise interest rates in December, but on Monday, the governor suddenly made a suggestive statement, leading everyone to generally believe that there is a high probability of a rate hike on the 19th.

Third: December 26, Bitcoin's year-end "huge amount" options expiration.

This is the most critical day in the entire options market: it is both the Q4 quarter-end expiration and the last expiration of the year, with a notional value as high as 23 billion, making it very significant.

The first two are major news items; originally, the Federal Reserve's rate cut and the Bank of Japan's rate hike would already be enough to impact the market, but now the market expectations on both sides have deviated simultaneously, so the uncertainty brought about here will be even stronger.

The third one is related to the options structure.

From the current data, the biggest pain point for Bitcoin options is at 100,000; the maximum PUT peak is at 84, indicating that it will be very difficult for Bitcoin to break through and stabilize above 100,000 in December; and around 84, institutions have made bearish protections. A few days ago, after BTC dropped below 84, instead of consolidating, it quickly pulled back, which is likely related to this point.

FIL presents a clear bullish reversal pattern: the low has reached $1.427, forming a tight bearish consolidation below the key resistance level of $1.680.

The heatmap shows: a large amount of bearish liquidity has accumulated above $1.68; once this resistance level is broken, a short squeeze will be triggered immediately.

Funds and open contracts: ample funds and stable positions indicate good bullish pressure.

Order book: insufficient liquidity >> a strong wave of buying can push FIL through the resistance level.

Upside path: hold $1.52 to $1.55 >> break $1.68 >> squeeze above $1.76 and hit new highs.

FIL is accumulating strength below the gate. Once it breaks through, it can soar.

ZEC has also started to move!

Now it needs to break through 392.32 USD on the CB chart for the trend to truly reverse.

Generally speaking, we want to see it "solidly" stand above that level and stabilize, not just rely on a shadow wick to count as a breakthrough. Overall, this wave of increase is basically what we expected, breaking upward from the ascending triangle pattern.

If it successfully breaks through and stabilizes above, the next target will likely be around 460 USD, which is the 1.618 extension level. Coincidentally, this point is just near the midpoint of the descending parallel channel before the Zcash drop.

COAI

Quietly accumulating around $0.56 and holding above the historical support level of $0.35, sellers have exhausted, and bulls are regrouping.

A large amount of liquidity trapped in the $1 to $12 range, shorts are stuck >> Once broken, it will trigger a massive squeeze.

Funds increased by 0.005%, open interest stable (around 17 million): bulls have quietly built positions.

Order book is extremely thin (volume to transaction ratio 0.01): just one large buy order is needed to break through immediately.

Upward path: break $1 >> chain squeeze >> $3, $6, ultimately breaking above $12.

COAI is like a sleeping giant, once it rises, it will explode.