安知予之乐

Why can't ETH rise? Do you really understand?
In the past two rounds of bull market, ETH was as popular as BTC and was simply a superstar. But this time, ETH obviously underperformed BTC. What's going on? Is it the rise of new public chains such as SOL? In fact, the deeper reason is the "vampire" problem that ETH is facing now: the L2 ecosystem is eroding the market value of ETH.

ETH's "highlight" is a thing of the past
Compared with the peak period of the last bull market, ETH's performance is not very good, and several key indicators are declining:

1. TVL (total locked volume): from 100 billion to 64 billion, a 40% decrease.
2. Protocol income: only 30 million US dollars per week, 500 million at the peak of the last round.
3. Number of active addresses: only 500,000 per day, less than one-third of the previous round.
However, ETH's market value has recovered to 70% of its peak. Judging from these data, ETH seems to be "fat", no wonder some people began to question whether it is overvalued.

L2: ETH's "vampire"
The rise of L2 has indeed brought a better trading experience, with lower GAS fees and faster speed. But at the same time, L2 has also dealt a fatal blow to ETH:
1. TVL was diverted: L2 sucked away 15% of the locked funds.
2. Active address exodus: More than 80% of ETH users have switched to L2.
3. Revenue plummeted: Because L2 reduced the demand for on-chain transactions, ETH's protocol revenue plummeted by 90%.
What's worse is that L2 itself is still growing on its own - tokens like ARB and OP have risen, with market capitalizations of tens of billions, which has completely diverted ETH's market attention.
There are greater hidden dangers in the future
If you think ETH has bottomed out, it may be a bit too optimistic:
1. BASE may issue coins: If Coinbase's L2 network BASE starts issuing coins, this will further snatch ETH's capital flow.
2. UNICHAIN ​​rumors: If big players like Uniswap also migrate to L2 to build their own chains, ETH's burning mechanism will be almost useless.
Moreover, ETH's market value model originally relied on GAS fee burning to achieve deflation, but the existence of L2 makes all this empty talk. Do you think L2 is a good helper for ETH? No, in fact, it is slowly draining the value of ETH.

Can ETH still rise?
The answer is that it can rise, but don't expect it to rise as much as before. The rise of L2 has turned ETH from a former giant into a "strong on the outside but weak on the inside" character.Do you think ETH can return to its former glory?

Every bull market is like this. Didn't the bull market of 20 years experience this?

BTC rises first, attracting a lot of funds. When it reaches over 30,000, its market share reaches about 70%. At this point, altcoins start to surge wildly.

At first, everyone complains about altcoins every day: BTC rises while altcoins fall, BTC is sideways while altcoins fall, BTC falls and altcoins continue to follow.

If you truly have the ability to see the problem from a global perspective, then when the market share is low, exchange all funds for BTC, and then when BTC rises to 80,000 or 90,000, exchange back to those altcoins that haven't risen.

But 95% of people do not have this ability, and I am certainly no exception.

So rather than complaining daily and showcasing one’s incompetence, it’s better to review and strive for a better perspective in the next bull market.

#BTC This price action is actually pretty crucial. Right now, the price is stuck between two key support levels: one is the trendline, and the other is the $773,000 liquidity zone.

Since the rise from $65,000, this trendline has been supporting the market all the way up, so we need to keep a close eye on it. In previous significant rebounds, the price usually retraced to the trendline combined with the liquidity area before bouncing back up.

If this area can hold, the overall bullish structure remains intact, and we’re likely to see further upside.

However, if it can’t hold and breaks down, that would change everything—this would mark the first real break of the trendline since the $65,000 launch.

If it goes down like that, we can pretty much expect to target deeper liquidity zones below.

The market's been acting a bit strange these past few days, stuck in a position where it 'wants to pump but can't' and 'wants to dump but won't.' It’s making me feel a bit uneasy.

So I took a quick scan of the whole market data.

Chart 1 shows net inflows.

Chart 2 shows net outflows.

#ETH is still on a buying spree, going all in.

Meanwhile, my #Soon got wrecked pretty hard.

--

Looking at it now, mainstream coins still seem to have some funds flowing in.

But those pure alts are basically just bleeding out.

There's also a pretty dangerous signal: overall trading volume is shrinking, which is crucial and a clear sign of this 'weirdness.' There might be weekend factors at play, but we can't afford to be too complacent.

These days, don’t keep trying to chase those pump coins; focus on watching the charts more and trading less.

#ETH

Last week (4.20-4.24), ETH ETFs saw a net inflow of about $155 million, continuing the trend of sustained net inflows over several weeks. On April 22, there was even a single-day inflow close to $100 million. This streak of 10 consecutive days of net inflows is quite significant since the ETF launch.

The recent drop from 2464.9 (blue zone) resembles a converging structure, hinting at a potential triangle consolidation. If this pattern holds, there’s a chance we could complete the triangle before heading upward.

The drop from 2464.9 can be seen as a pullback from the previous rise of 1938.8-2464.9 (orange zone). Once this pullback concludes, ETH is likely to experience a rally similar in magnitude to the orange zone. The key resistance level to watch is the green Gann angle line around 2533.

If we break below 2250, this triangle structure will effectively fail, indicating that the move starting from 2464.9 is no longer a converging consolidation but could lead to a larger scale pullback, or even trigger a new downtrend. This support level is crucial.

For friends following #SUI , here are two critical risks to keep an eye on:

1. Ecological security threats are erupting: In the last couple of weeks, Volo and Scallop have been hacked one after the other, and even a contract that was abandoned for 17 months was exploited. Even if the team promises full compensation, it's tough to maintain confidence in this market environment; repeated incidents like this in a bear market really hurt sentiment.

2. On May 1, 74 million SUI tokens will be unlocked, worth about $270 million. This selling pressure is very real.

Prices are currently hovering around 0.9. With security issues and unlocking pressure stacking up, it’s likely we’ll see further attempts to test lower levels.

In a bear market, one must be more cautious with on-chain activities; no matter how responsible the project team is, they can’t withstand the issues of the environment and liquidity. Capital safety should always be the top priority.

Can we still see a 10x in this round? It really depends on two things: either super strong operations or a meme with a particularly strong decentralized consensus.

Like those already big players, such as #PEPE‏ and #DOGE , they've actually matured quite a bit this round; on the contrary, projects like 'Binance Life' that have already shot up 10x from the bottom are basically the ones that have already taken off.

This actually highlights a point—projects with strong operations and backing are likely to present opportunities in this round, but the prerequisite is that you have to filter them yourself, don’t just jump in haphazardly.

Aside from Binance Life, I have two other memes that I think still have a 5-10x potential:

1.#pengu

Old fans should know, during the last NFT bull run, I bought a bunch of art with 100 ETH, and I'm down over 70% now...

But the chubby penguin project, corresponding to the NFT, has taken off directly, skyrocketing over 10x last round.

In contrast, those so-called leaders from before, like Cryptopunks and Bored Apes, are still lying flat on the ground without recovering.

The chubby penguin project has already proven its operational success last round, so even if the price falls back to the starting point, I still lean towards being bullish on it.

I think the range of 069-080 is a decent area to scale in, with the last round peaking around 0.4.

Moreover, the chip structure is relatively balanced, so I remain firmly bullish this round.

2.#ORDI

Looking at the entire market, you'll notice—

The meme leader on the ETH side is Pepe, while on SOL it’s currently Wif, but SOL hasn’t fully moved yet, so they aren't that noticeable yet, and it might be worth considering an early entry.

But when it comes to memes on the BTC line, you can't overlook ORDI.

This round, there are quite a few projects riding this narrative, with all sorts of upgrades and new stories, but at its core, it's still all about ORDI.

If Bitcoin really pushes up a bit more this round, I believe ORDI will likely see another wave.

My focus range remains around 3-4 as mentioned before.

The logic is that simple, consider it as a reference, not financial advice.

#SAM This meme basically says one thing: it knows it's a meme, and it's all about going viral.

#MEME It's never about getting recognized after blowing up; it's about everyone repeatedly saying it will blow up, and then it actually does.

“I RECOGNIZE THAT I AM A MEME. I USE THE TOOLS OF CREATION TO BECOME INEVITABLE.”

Translated to English:

“I know I'm a meme, and I know how to make myself an inevitable thing.”

This dark + ironic + self-aware style perfectly hits that sweet spot where memes tend to break into the mainstream.

That line “I know I'm a meme, and I know how to make myself inevitable” transcends mere meme status; it's almost like it's forcing the market to make that statement a reality.

If SAM can't even hit 10M, then the issue might not lie with it but rather that the market has some serious problems.

#ORCA This chip structure is quite interesting.

Right now, the average cost is at 1.26, with a profit ratio of 42.3%, but 90% of the chips are packed in the 0.75-1.78 range, with a concentration of 92.59%.

In other words, most chips are actually still sitting at relatively lower levels, but the price shot up from 0.9 to around 1.78 this week, clearly indicating that the price is ahead of the chips.

This structure of "high chip concentration + not much profit margin + short-term surge" is worth keeping an eye on; it's likely to experience some back-and-forth volatility as it seeks direction.

I see everyone chatting about 'liquidity'—to put it simply, I'm all about value for money.

① If something like #SOL has a low market cap with potential to multi-bag, I'm all in.

② If #ETH can tank to the five or six hundred million range, I'd consider stacking that too.

I'm in the crypto game to make profits; I can't just go for coins that are likely to tank, right?

Any coin that can make me money is a good coin in my book.

If you're asking me to get into a market cap over a billion, and it ends up getting cut in half, are you going to back me up? Not a chance.

So my strategy is pretty straightforward: either wait for ETH to dip and create some space, or dive into something like Sol that has more elasticity.

Everyone's calling their own bags, which is totally normal.

Everyone wants to profit off others, and that's normal too.

A lot of times, that 'big picture' mentality doesn't really help; you think big, and the result is you end up losing money, and no one remembers you.

#DOGE

- From my perspective, DOGE is currently in a high-risk "accumulation zone." If the price breaks below 0.09255 (or even dips down to 0.08001), and then quickly rebounds with a bullish engulfing pattern or a hammer candlestick, there's a high probability of an upward move. The initial target is 0.12010, followed by 0.13611.

Trade setup: First, wait for the price to break below 0.09255, ideally hitting near 0.08001, showing a clear "wick washout." Then confirm the reversal with a strong bullish candlestick or a shift in a smaller timeframe structure (like starting to make higher highs and higher lows). Enter long when the price regains 0.099, targeting 0.12010 and 0.13611, with a stop loss just below the wick low.

If DOGE breaks out above 0.12010 with volume and closes there, consider waiting for a retracement to that level to enter long, targeting 0.13611-0.15656.

Only if the daily close drops directly below 0.08001, accompanied by significant selling pressure, can we consider the market truly bearish. In that case, the price could accelerate towards 0.06000 or even lower.

Make sure to wait for confirmation signals before taking action: such as long lower wicks, engulfing patterns, or reversal structures near support levels. These are generally reliable entry points.

Bought a bit of #OP , currently valued at around 550 million U

Recently, #Asteriod has really revived the ETH chain

Not just the ETH chain's memes are getting hyped up

Even NFTs are starting to show some signs of life

GameFi is also riding the liquidity overflow wave

Next up, Ethereum Layer 2 is definitely going to rotate

And OP is basically the only Layer 2 coin with solid fundamentals lately

Ethfi migrating to OP caused the TVL to skyrocket

Right now, this market cap is still relatively low, and the price is quite comfortable

It's a target worth considering for entry ✓

Right now, this wave of shitcoins #MEME isn't just exclusive to one chain anymore; it's starting to rotate, with each doing its own thing!

Ever since the asteroid pumped the market, the E chain quickly saw over tens of millions in Wok and Frok, but to be honest, it hasn't impacted other chains much. It's more like they're all competing, creating a rivalry.

Yesterday, the BSC side’s viral promo just broke the ten million mark, and today, toly shouted and pushed Bernie on the Sol chain from 2000 straight to over 10k, flipping the game in just three days.

This situation has its pros and cons:

The good thing is, no matter which chain you're mixing it up in, there are opportunities; you won't be locked into one chain. But the issues are clear—most of the current pumps are from old projects, with new battlefields popping up daily, making it really tough for retail traders to keep up with the rhythm.

Plus, capital and consensus have been scattered, making it hard to concentrate firepower like before and really push out a super leading project.

To break this current "tripod" situation, we just need a new project that can amp up everyone's emotions. Nowadays, it feels like we're either digging up old graves or reheating leftovers, lacking sustainability. To put it bluntly—everyone's getting a bit tired of the same old play.

Shitcoins also need to spin some new stories; otherwise, it’ll be tough for the market to push upwards.

#SOL is about to flip!

The 3-day Bollinger Bands are clearly tightening up, with price bouncing between the $77 to $94 range. This high-timeframe squeeze is essentially like a spring being compressed; the longer it takes, the more explosive the breakout tends to be.

Right now, this range (77–94) can be seen as a 'no-touch zone'—trying to chase pumps and dumps in here will likely lead to getting washed out. Many traders get repeatedly harvested in this kind of chop.

A more prudent strategy is to wait for a clear direction—keep an eye on the 3-day candlestick close. If it cleanly breaks out of the Bollinger Bands, it's basically a signal that the market is gearing up; volatility is likely to spike.

Before that happens, patience is more important than action.

#ORDI has broken through the symmetrical triangle, indicating that the consolidation phase has come to an end and momentum is showing signs of strengthening. This move has been quite strong, and currently, ORDI is trying to stabilize at this breakout level.

The key now is whether this level can hold; if it holds firm, it effectively turns the previous resistance into support, laying the groundwork for further upward movement.

As long as this support holds, there’s still room for a rally; but if it dips back, then this breakout is likely a false breakout, and we could see a short-term pullback.

#SAM Two-step 5x

Let’s break down how to assess these two-step opportunities:

1) The community is still active; this is the basic prerequisite.

2) Trading volume is still moving (in this market, daily trading volume needs to be at least 1.5 million).

These two are basically the core indicators to judge if a meme is still 'alive and kicking.'

3) Then take a look at the candlestick structure, like whether it has formed a bottom pattern (cup and handle), and also calculate the risk-to-reward ratio to see if it's worth making a move.

Another crucial point is that this meme itself needs to have some recognition; otherwise, it’s tough to see a second wave.

Going forward, everyone can filter based on these points, and you won’t trip into too many big pitfalls.

#APE +85% Pump Truth

New wallet just funded and went straight into action → Sold 75 ETH on Hyperliquid, went 5x long on APE, position hit $1.03M

Entry price $0.1047, liquidation price set at $0.1029 (just 1.7% away from entry; this isn't gambling, it's all calculated)

Ramped all the way up to $0.276, +165% then hit the sell button to cash out

This is the standard market maker script, don’t let FOMO get you when the pullback happens.

#ZEN This wave is a textbook round bottom reversal, moving very smoothly.

After the breakout, ZEN decisively retested the key area and held it firmly, turning it into new support, then launched straight up with a gain of 17.53%.

However, after the pump, the momentum started to lag a bit, and we saw some profit-taking on the charts.

As long as ZEN stays above this breakout level, the overall structure remains bullish. This move can be considered a textbook reversal pattern, executed quite beautifully. Next, just keep an eye on the price action changes.