张烁峰的剧本日记

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#加密市场观察

BTC Market Analysis 2026.06.12

As shown in Chart 1, the blue Gann angle line 2/1 rebounded from 60K to 82,850 after its first test without breaking. Currently, BTC is positioned below this line (66,300), which has become a significant resistance level.

Whether BTC can reclaim the blue Gann angle line 2/1 will serve as a right-side confirmation signal to determine if the downtrend that started from 82,850 has ended. As long as it fails to solidify above, the rebound level from 59,130 cannot be expanded, meaning the downtrend that began at 82,850 is still in play. You can refer to this logic to create your trading plan.

After BTC dropped from 126K to 80,600, I mentioned in my post: "The bear market has begun; 126,000–80,600 is the first wave of the main decline in this bear market."

Based on this structural breakdown logic, I executed a long position on November 21, betting on a rebound of the same level as 126K–80,600. Later, when BTC rebounded to around 97K, I started to close my longs and opened shorts, adding to my short position on the right side at 91K, then holding all the way down to around 62K.

From 60K, a rebound of the same level as 97,900–60K began running, still following the above strategy: betting on a similar level rebound + continuing to short after the rebound ends.

Since May, I have repeatedly advised to short, adding to my positions at 82K, 81K, 78K, and 73K, until it broke below 60K, taking profits on most of my short positions while keeping a core position for the game. If the recent rebound from 59,130 shows signs of ending, I will consider adding back the positions I took profits on.

Since the trend is downward, every rebound is merely a correction of the preceding decline. Therefore, it’s not about guessing how high the rebound can go, but rather about entering short positions at the end of the rebound. This has been my core logic for continuously shorting this year. #比特币跌至5.9万美元后反弹 $BTC

GOOG Google Market Analysis 2026.06.11

Since the update in 2025, I've been telling everyone that Google is one of my top picks, and I've been steadily increasing my position and holding it as a quality asset. Today, let's break down Google's structure using the daily candlestick chart:

Unlike the storage sector and most US stocks that have begun significant corrections, Google's correction level remains uncertain. As long as the pullback from 404.47 doesn't break below the 311-300 range, it could still be a correction targeting the upward movement represented by the blue segment, rather than the overall red segment.

In this scenario, after finding a pullback endpoint above 311-300, Google has another potential upward movement on par with the blue segment. Moving forward, we'll keep an eye on whether Google's correction level will expand.

If we confirm it’s indeed a minor correction, I’ll look for opportunities to take some profits after a new high; if the correction level expands, there will be excellent opportunities to accumulate more in the second half of the year, which is great news for those who missed out on Google's red segment rally. #谷歌 $GOOGL

From last year to this year, the financial markets have seen retail liquidations popping up almost periodically. The second half of 2025 is set for cryptocurrencies, early 2026 is for precious metals, and recently, we've seen stocks, gold, and crypto all take a dive.

On the surface, it seems like it's all about the international situation, inflation, and policy expectations, but dig a little deeper, and you'll see it's the cycles at play.

What’s truly terrifying in trading isn’t just being wrong about the direction but losing control over your position and leverage. Many folks may have the right big picture, yet still end up in the red. Why is that?

Because just one little prick or a liquidity crunch can wipe out those high-leverage accounts in a heartbeat.

A week or a month of gains can easily create the illusion that the market will move according to your whims. But in reality, it's the opposite; the financial markets are ruthless in eliminating overly confident traders first.

What bankrupts countless individuals isn’t the bear market, but the volatility. That's why I've come to believe more and more in the phrase—slow is fast.

There are many who make quick bucks, but few who survive long-term. The biggest secret to investing and trading is pretty straightforward—first, survive, then patiently wait for the cycle to reach a buying stage, gradually stack your positions, and then hold until springtime blooms.

Cycles are always present; liquidity will ease up, interest rate cuts will come, risk appetite will recover, and new themes will emerge. The market never lacks opportunities. What’s missing is having the chips ready when it’s time to play.

In recent years, with the international situation in turmoil, the global financial order is being restructured, and the volatility of various financial assets will only increase. But crises and opportunities are two sides of the same coin; when everyone is panicking, it’s often the starting point for a cyclical buy.

I believe that in the second half of 2026, whether in the stock market or the crypto space, we might see some significant accumulation windows worth paying attention to.

As for gold, I lean more towards viewing it as part of an asset allocation rather than a quick-rich tool. For most people, gradually buying in, holding long-term, and consistently dollar-cost averaging into gold yields returns that can outperform most bank managers’ recommended products over an extended timeline.

The market is always full of opportunities; I hope that when those opportunities arise, everyone is still at the table.

BTC Market Analysis 2026.06.11

Since May, I've been consistently stacking up shorts. In the video from June 7th, I mentioned that there was a potential bounce here, which indeed rallied up to 64200 before entering a consolidation phase. We're currently below the key resistance zone (65800-66600), and we haven't broken the crucial Gann angle support level (60400-60600) either. So, what's the next move?

I've always stressed the importance of executing trades only at key levels, and it’s even better if they align with significant Gann timeframes. The best strategy now is to wait for BTC to reach those key levels and then observe its reaction before looking for an entry point, rather than feeling the need to trade at every moment.

The upcoming important Gann dates are June 12th and June 15th. These dates could mark turning points in the market, so let’s be patient. #BTC走势分析 $BTC

XAU Gold Market Analysis 2026.06.11

The macro-level for gold is illustrated in Chart 1, where the drop starting from 5600 is a correction of the entire upward move shown in Chart 1. After finding the bottom of this correction, we can expect new highs to be made. However, we need to be cautious as this adjustment level is significant, falling under the weekly timeframe.

As for the daily structure, it is divided as shown in Chart 2. I mentioned before that if we break below 4268, the bounce might have ended at 4891, and the new downtrend began from 4891. Last night’s drop below 4100 confirmed this move.

Now, 4268 has become a critical support-resistance flip zone. If we can't reclaim this level, the drop that started at 4890 will not be over for the time being. However, if the move starting at 4890 (shown in the blue box in Chart 2) is a downtrend of the same magnitude as the drop from 5600 to 4100 (the left blue segment in Chart 2), we may see this downtrend wrap up and a bounce could happen within two months.

Since gold is currently in a macro adjustment phase, the short-term profit potential isn't very strong. Those with medium to long-term positions in physical gold should keep an eye on the subsequent price action, while short-term traders shouldn’t invest too much energy in this asset. #xau $XAU

COIN Market Analysis 2026.06.10

Since the structure of Coinbase was outlined in the article from April 30th, the current price action is aligning with expectations. Let’s break it down in detail from a smaller timeframe:

As shown in the chart, the coin has been in a rebound since 139, targeting the decline in the black segment illustrated. After the rebound concludes, it will continue to drop to find a bottom.

From the 4-hour perspective, there are two potential scenarios moving forward, represented by red and blue:

Red: The overall movement from 139 is a three-wave rebound structure. The first wave spans from 139 to 222, followed by a pullback at 222 targeting the first wave’s decline. There will still be a second wave of rebound, and after reaching the peak of that rebound, it will continue to fall.

Blue: If 222 serves as the peak of the rebound, then 139-222 covers the entirety of the rebound, completing that wave. Under this scenario, there will be no new highs above 222, and after a minor rebound, it will drop directly to find a bottom.

Regardless of which path it takes, COIN presents opportunities below. This year, it’s likely to conclude the entire decline that started at 444.65. At that point, I plan to buy in some positions to capture the next wave of bullish action on the daily chart. #美国CPI升至4.2%创三年新高 $COIN

CPI data just dropped, and while it met expectations, inflation creeping back up to 4.2% is definitely giving us a cold sweat.

The market was previously buzzing with confidence over the 'Trump effect', with some even claiming he declared victory 28 times. But the reality is, the Strait of Hormuz is still locked down, and oil prices aren’t just holding steady; they’re actually higher than during the Biden era—talk about a slap in the face.

The upcoming FOMC meeting is bound to be tough. Stop dreaming about rate cuts in 2026; just avoiding further hikes will be a win. Even if the Strait of Hormuz gets cleared tomorrow, the lag effect of inflation means we’ll be dealing with high rates for several more months. The tough times are just getting started. #美国CPI升至4.2%创三年新高 $BTC

BTC Market Analysis 2026.06.10

I've been stressing the importance of the green Gann angle line 3/1 (60800) for a while now. Last night, we tested that level and saw a V-reversal, but the momentum isn't looking too optimistic at the moment. So, what's the game plan moving forward?

Today, our key observation point remains at 60800. The four-hour candlestick has been closing consistently below this level, which will act as resistance. If we can’t break above it, we might see a small bounce around 59130 (illustrated in the blue box), which only targets the drop in the blue segment shown. Following this path, we could see a dip below 59130.

Only a breakout above the upper blue Gann angle line 2/1 (66180) will allow the bounce starting from 59130 to scale up, targeting the drop in the red segment $BTC
#BTC☀️

BTC's own data is showing marginal improvement. Despite today's increased drop, the on-chain turnover rate has significantly decreased, indicating that most investors are gradually shaking off their panic and adopting a hold-and-watch approach.

However, tomorrow's CPI data hangs over us like a sword of Damocles, and the probability of a surprise is not to be underestimated. Coupled with Trump's recent lack of any substantial 'market rescue' measures, macroeconomic pressures remain. For BTC to truly stabilize, it seems it will have to rely on its own resilience going forward. $BTC
#btc

Surprisingly, ETH has taken the lead over BTC by entering a net inflow phase first. As we've observed over the past couple of days, the market is clearly feeling the traditional institutions' dip-buying moves: on Monday, BTC's funding data showed early signs, while ETH's data appeared even more aggressive. It's worth noting that even while BTC remains at the top of the sell-off leaderboard, BlackRock's funds have quietly started positioning themselves in ETH.

On the other hand, Fidelity investors, who typically favor 'buying the dip and selling the pump', are showing even stronger dip-buying activity. Although this chunk of funds likely belongs to financial investments, leaning towards taking profits after a bounce, it still sends a key signal: some traditional investors see the current price levels as a solid entry point.

Chart by X-Pyrex, stats compiled $BTC $ETH #英国FCA拟允许零售基金持有10%加密ETN

ETH Market Analysis 2026.06.09

On June 5th, we identified a support level at 1500, and ETH subsequently dipped to 1505.68 before bouncing back. Has the bounce peaked?

The key area to watch is the 1585-1595 range (illustrated by the red support zone). If this level holds throughout the week, there’s still hope for a larger bounce in ETH. The 1505.68-1721.93 range was just the first wave of the rebound, and the movement starting from 1721.93 represents a retracement of that rise. Once we find the end of that retracement, another bounce of a similar magnitude could follow;

However, if we break below the 1585-1595 range this week and fail to reclaim it, then the 1505.68-1721.93 range might be all the upside we get. In that scenario, it would be a smaller bounce countering the downward move indicated by the blue line in the chart. If this plays out, ETH might see lower lows by late June or early July.

As it stands, we haven’t broken any critical levels in either direction, so we’ll continue to keep our eyes peeled. #ETH走势分析 $ETH

BTC Market Analysis 2026.06.09

As shown in Chart 1, BTC is still trading within the range above the green Gann angle line 3/1 and below the blue Gann angle line 2/1. Based on the retracement levels from the 59130 bounce, we can break down the future price action into two potential paths as illustrated in Chart 2:

Blue: If BTC fails to break above 66100 this week or if the 4-hour candlestick closes below 60850 and cannot reclaim that level, the bounce from 59130 may be a minor retracement targeting the blue segment in Chart 2, increasing the likelihood of new lows in this scenario;

Red: If BTC can break above 66100 and hold that level this week, the bounce from 59130 would carry more weight, targeting the red segment in Chart 2. If we see this level of retracement, there’s a chance that mid to early July could see a correction low rather than a new low.

When friends come, there’s good wine; when wolves come, there’s a shotgun. This week, just keep an eye on the key levels and respond accordingly. $BTC
#BTC☀

BNB Market Analysis 2026.06.08

In a tweet from May 11, I mentioned that BNB would have a rebound, and it subsequently surged by 17%. Today, let's break down the larger structure of BNB:

As shown in the chart, 202-1375 represents a significant weekly bullish run, and the correction started from 1375. I expect that after reaching the correction's endpoint later this year, BNB will experience another rally on par with the black line.

Currently, based on both the correction time and amplitude, the pullback that started from 1375 has already completed 70%. In the second half of the year, I’ll look for opportunities to stack some BNB, provided there are no issues with its fundamentals. $BNB
#BNB走势

$ETH Market Analysis 2026.06.08

Since the support level of 1500 provided on June 5 has played its part, ETH has bounced back by 14% so far. What's the outlook moving forward?

From a green Gann angle perspective at 3/1 (1794), we can assess whether the rebound from 1505 can gain momentum:

If ETH can hold above 1794 on the daily chart without dropping back, the rebound starting from 1505 targets the marked red segment of the downtrend, suggesting a significant rebound level and a considerable range;

However, if we can't break above 1794 this week and next, the rebound might be targeting the marked blue segment of the downtrend, which could lead to further downside risk for ETH after the rebound concludes.

ETH's recent rebound strength is outperforming BTC, but we’re left wondering if it can maintain this momentum or if it’s just a flash in the pan. $ETH
#ETH走势分析

BTC Market Analysis 2026.06.08

Yesterday, I mentioned keeping an eye on the green Gann angle line 3/1 (60900) for BTC; if we break below that level, we could see further downside. Until it breaks, it’s still holding strong, so I took profits on most of my short positions yesterday afternoon.

This week, our focus shifts to the blue Gann angle line 2/1 (66000-66400). If we see three consecutive daily candlesticks closing above this level without dropping back, that would indicate the first wave down from 82850 has concluded at 59130. Under this scenario, the bounce starting from 59130 mirrors the correction from 82850 to 59130 (as shown in the red segment), with a reasonable target for the bounce stopping below 71000. #比特币反弹突破6.3万美元 $BTC

BTC Market Analysis 2026.06.05

Hey folks, I've gotten feedback that my charts are too complex and not very newbie-friendly. So today, let's keep it simple with some key positions explained in plain language:

The drop from BTC starting at 82850 mirrors the previous rise from 60000 to 82850 (the red segment), and the downtrend isn't over yet.

The bounce from 61383 is most likely part of the drop that began at 82850, specifically targeting the dip between 74514 and 61383. As long as we don't break above 69800, the bounce from 61383 can't gain any traction, and similarly, the downtrend won't end.

If we break below 61381, and if this week’s weekly candle closes below 73800, or closes above 73800 but can't break above 67700 before 6.15, any of these scenarios signals that the bounce could be over, and then BTC will likely continue to drop until around Gann time in mid-July. If we hit the 52000-48000 range, that could be a solid accumulation opportunity. #比特币跌至6.2万美元 $BTC

BTC Trading Insights 2026.06.04

Today, let's get into some solid insights; grab your seat!

First off, my take—I'm seeing this bounce at 61380. After this rebound, we're likely heading down again around mid to early July to complete the daily-level drop that started from 82850.

Even though I believe the downtrend isn't over yet, I notified the group this morning to take profit on some shorts. The core logic behind taking profit on those shorts is:

Chart 1 shows the Gann angle lines drawn from a high of 126K and a low of 60K. I've mentioned before how crucial the 2/1 line is; after breaking through 2/1 on April 14, it flipped to a resistance/support swap zone. Today’s drop is the first time testing this support level, so a bounce here is pretty normal.

Before the accelerated drop hit this line, I already had a plan in place to take profits at this level, just waiting for the market action, volume, and candlestick patterns to confirm before executing.

It's a bit unfortunate that I was trading with my buddy last night until the morning, totally exhausted. Once I set my strategy, I dozed off, telling my assistant to wake me up if we hit this level. But the price moved too quickly; by the time he called me, the exit wasn't as perfect as I wanted.

However, having regrets is part of the game; trading is like that, and so is life—overall, it’s about finding that balance.

Moving forward, I’ll be keeping an eye on this week's closing situation. If we close above the blue Gann angle line at 8/1, ideally above 66K, that would indicate the first wave down from 82850 is wrapping up. After a bounce targeting that, we could see another drop, hitting mid-July to complete the daily-level decline from 82850.

If we can't close above 66K, or even above 63800, then the bounce starting from 61380 might just be a minor retracement in the bigger downtrend.

The difference between a “counter-wave bounce against the first drop” and a “minor bounce during the first drop” is significant—it's like comparing cannons to birdshot. #BTC走势分析 $BTC

XAU Gold Market Analysis 2026.06.03

On June 1st, I mentioned the significance of 4480. As shown in Figure 2, the daily candlesticks on June 1st and 2nd closed above 4480, but the lack of subsequent upward movement is a sign that gold is opting for further adjustment.

The structure breakdown is illustrated in Figure 1's four-hour chart: 4100-4890 represents the first wave up, and since 4890, we’ve been experiencing a pullback of the same level. After identifying the pullback endpoint, we should see another wave similar to the rise from 4100-4890, at which point gold could complete a daily-level rebound above 5000 from the 4100 start.

This adjustment may dip below 4366, but if we reach Gann time on the week of 6.15 without a new low, we might be looking at a sideways consolidation.

As long as the daily candlestick body doesn't break below the 4265 line, the logic that the daily-level rebound for gold isn't over remains unchanged. #xau $XAU