张烁峰的剧本日记

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#加密市场观察

I went short on ETH yesterday and just took profit on most of my position for some protection. I also opened a short-term long on BTC, but it didn’t play out well; I lost a few hundred points.

The key is to watch the price action over the next couple of days. If ETH can break above 1790, there’s a chance for a bigger rebound, otherwise, it’s just a bounce against the blue segment of the chart in Figure 1 and the structure is already complete.

Comparing the volatility of recent US stocks like SPCX and META, crypto is lagging behind significantly. SPCX’s hourly volatility could take BTC a week to cover, and remember, this is a $2 trillion+ market cap asset, pretty chilling when you think about it. #ETH走势分析 $ETH

BTC Market Analysis 2026.06.17

When BTC broke below 60k, I mentioned that if it managed to reclaim the green Gann angle line 3/1 (60800), there was a high likelihood of a bounce. True to that, after BTC reclaimed this level, I took profit on all my shorts, and we've seen a bounce of 13.8% recently. What's next?

The price action over the next couple of days is crucial. The strength of the recent bounce looks decent on the hourly candles, but every time we hit the daily close, it seems to fizzle out. Both daily candles closed below the blue Gann angle line 2/1 (66300), which isn't a good sign.

To determine if BTC can break through this key level, we need to monitor at least 2-3 four-hour candles, and sometimes even a daily confirmation is necessary, mainly because BTC tends to have too many false moves at smaller timeframes.

In the coming days, we must break and hold above 66300 for the bounce from 59100 to potentially gain momentum. Whether or not we can rise to 68191 or 69338 in the shorter timeframes isn't as critical; what's important is closing above 66300 on the daily and ensuring we don't drop below that level on a retest. If we can't hold this area, even if the hourly and four-hour candles push higher, in hindsight, it could all just be a spike. #BTC走势分析 $BTC

On Monday, BTC spot ETF funding sentiment has seen a slight rebound, which is pretty much expected — with the weekend's "signing" going smoothly, some investors are starting to gamble on short-term bounce opportunities. But looking at the data, aside from BlackRock showing a significant net buy, other institutions are mostly seeing outflows.

The market is likely pricing in the "good news realization": funds that had already anticipated the price increase are choosing to take profits. Overall, whether buying or selling, actions are limited, and more traditional funds are still sitting on the sidelines, in wait-and-see mode. #btc $BTC

META Market Analysis 2026.06.16

From Wall Street's perspective, the roster of tech giants might be getting a revamp. Previously, the market focused on the "Seven Giants". Now, more and more funds are starting to pay attention to new core tech assets: MANGOS — Meta, Anthropic, Nvidia, Google, OpenAI, and SpaceX.

Some institutions believe that the real tech narrative moving forward isn’t just the original "Seven Giants", but should also include SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic.

I jumped into META yesterday. If it doesn’t dip below 556 anytime soon, I’m expecting the scenario in Chart 1. The recent drop from 691.52 to 557 (red box in Chart 1) currently looks like a correction targeting 520.26-691.52 (red line on the left side of the chart), which seems reasonable. Fingers crossed we can break out this month! 📈📈📈#meta $META

NVDA Market Analysis 2026.06.16

In the early tweets, it was mentioned that Nvidia was likely to pull back from 236.54 rather than enter a new downtrend. After a decline of over 15%, Nvidia stabilized—what's next?

The fundamentals haven't changed; the core logic remains AI demand, data center growth, and the next-gen product cycle.

But one thing to keep in mind—after a long rally, Nvidia's stock price is already carrying a hefty valuation and expectations. We might enter a phase where the fundamentals are strong, but the market needs to digest the valuation and expectations again.

In terms of price action, there's still short-term upward momentum, but we need to be cautious of profit-taking at high levels and potential market corrections due to policy shifts in the medium to long term.

On the technical side, as shown in Chart 1, if the range from 236.54 to 199.34 is a pullback for the upward movement indicated by the red zone, then the pullback may have already ended, and Nvidia is expected to set a new high this month.

If it breaks through 236.54, we need to pay close attention to the breakout at the 250.58 level. If it fails to break this level, Nvidia could trigger a significant pullback at any moment (as shown in Chart 2, related to the pullback from the rise starting at 86.62, which is at the weekly level).

If it drops below 194.74, the adjustment level might expand, and if it falls below 188, we confirm the start of a weekly level adjustment. ##nvda $NVDAB

Today, the long-term holders of Bitcoin hit a new all-time high—currently, there are 14,945,950 BTC (accounting for 74.54% of the circulating supply) with an average holding duration exceeding 155 days.

This data confirms that long-term holders are actively accumulating. Looking back to early June, due to heightened tensions between the U.S. and Iran, BTC experienced a slight pullback, and long-term holders made minor reductions in their positions, while exchange inventories saw a rise. However, as the U.S. sent signals of comprehensive peace, this ‘smart money’ quickly returned, resuming their buy mode.

Note: The ‘long-term holders’ defined here do not only refer to coins that have been static on-chain for over 155 days. Even if an investor buys new BTC, as long as the average holding duration of their overall position exceeds 155 days, they are still considered long-term holders.

With the continuation of accumulation behavior, the BTC inventory on exchanges is gradually declining. These two sets of data collectively indicate that after a phase of easing tensions in the U.S.-Iran conflict, investors are rekindling their enthusiasm for risk assets.

As predicted in last week's analysis: once a peace agreement is established, the risk market is bound to see a rebound. This not only signifies the safety of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz but also foreshadows a drop in WTI oil prices and a cooling of U.S. inflation expectations. For the Federal Reserve's meeting this Thursday morning and Warsh, this undoubtedly constitutes a favorable shift in policy, prompting investors to position themselves early to capitalize on this anticipated rebound. #BTC🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 $BTC

#BTC走势分析 $BTC BTC Market Analysis 2026.06.16

Did the two levels mentioned for BTC yesterday hit the mark?
Testing 67300✅ Daily close right below 66300✅

The next few days are crucial, directly determining the market for the next 40-60 days:

If we see a rebound targeting the blue segment of Chart 2 from 59100 to 67300, the structure is already complete. If the daily close remains below 64000 and we can't break the blue Gann angle line 2/1 (66400) before 8 AM on 6.22, the rebound could be over;

In the following days, if the daily candlestick closes above 66400 and effectively breaks through the resistance zone (67300-68200), the rebound level may expand. Under this scenario, the rebound could last until late this month, with the maximum timeframe being early July. The rebound starting from 59100 shouldn't exceed 73800; if it does, we need to redefine the larger structure.

Summary:

Continue to observe reactions at key levels. What’s currently running is a small rebound, and after it ends, there may be a slight drop (refer to the blue segment in Chart 2).

If the rebound level expands, the rebound starting from 59100 could last a bit longer, but once it ends, a significant drop is likely (refer to 97900-60k).

We are getting closer to the bear bottom; finding good targets for gradual accumulation is the correct choice for medium to long-term players.

You gotta hand it to him, Trump guessed right again this time. Just yesterday, the market was doubting whether a deal could be signed on Sunday due to the chaos stirred up by Israel and Iran's hardline stance, but the plot just flipped.

Although the terms released by Iran seem to put the U.S. in a tight spot (even mentioning war reparations), Trump hasn't confirmed this as the final agreement. But that’s beside the point now. Trump has teased that he will unveil all the details after the signing on Friday. For the market, the specifics of the agreement aren’t crucial; what matters is whether the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened.

I firmly believe Trump knows the score: only by reopening Hormuz can inflation be swiftly tamed. After all, with less than five months to the midterm elections, the prospects for the Republicans controlling both houses look grim, and their approval ratings continue to slide. For him, quickly wrapping up the chaos in the Middle East to free up resources to stimulate the economy is his only political escape route. Therefore, as long as the signing goes smoothly on Friday, the U.S.-Iran dispute will essentially settle down.

This is undoubtedly a huge positive for risk assets. Currently, S&P and Nasdaq futures have returned to their highs, and hitting new peaks this week is highly likely; Bitcoin hitting $70k again is also worth looking forward to. The only variable is the Fed's meeting in the early hours of Thursday—Wash's stance and the dot plot will be the key focus.

To be honest, I’m not worried about BTC’s price action; the only regret is that during this round in the $60k range, I allocated more of my position to oil, and only did a dual-coin investment in BTC. Looking back, the FOMO from missing out is indeed quite intense. $BTC #btc

Last Friday, Trump hinted that a peace deal was close, and the weekend probability of signing an agreement shot up to around 70-80%. The market reacted positively right away, and BTC finally stopped its net outflow.

However, looking at the data, this price surge feels more like a "news-driven bounce" rather than a "money-driven bull run." Why do I say that? Because traditional investors haven't really jumped in. The reasoning is simple: even though BTC is at what some might call a floor price, just look at the US stock market; even buying indices this year feels a lot more stable compared to the crypto scene. The current sentiment towards crypto seems to be: "Let’s wait and see, no rush to go all in." $BTC
#BTC走势分析

Despite the solid on-chain data for Bitcoin this week, the funding flows for ETH spot ETFs are showing signs of fatigue. Notably, both BlackRock and Grayscale have recorded net inflows in their Bitcoin products, while Ethereum continues to face net redemptions. This clearly reflects that current traditional incremental funds are highly concentrated on Bitcoin, with a lingering lack of appetite for other altcoins.

However, the current selling pressure hasn’t significantly intensified, suggesting that market participants are still primarily in the hands of long-term holders, with short-term speculative positions being relatively low. Data shows that in week 98, the net outflow of ETH has narrowed to less than 2,000 coins, compared to a massive sell-off of 100,000 coins in week 97, indicating a substantial alleviation of panic. This phenomenon of "not being able to drop" is a direct reflection of holders' reluctance to sell. #ETH走势分析 $ETH

ETH Market Analysis 2026.06.15

On June 1st, it was pointed out that the ETH downtrend wasn't over, setting a target drop to 1500. Subsequently, ETH fell from 2020 to 1505. Currently, the rebound from 1505 has reached over 16%. This week, keep a close eye on this level:

The green Gann angle line at 3/1 is currently at 1790. If we can break through this line this week, the rebound still has momentum, and the 1500 rebound level could expand to target the illustrated red segment of the downtrend. After breaking and stabilizing above 1790, focus on the range of 1860-1902, timing-wise keep an eye on this week and next week. If we hit important time overlaps at key resistance levels, we might see the end of the rebound, and once we identify the rebound peak, ETH will continue to fall.

If we struggle to break 1790 this week, be cautious that the rebound from 1505 is merely targeting the illustrated blue segment of the downtrend; under this scenario, 1505 cannot act as a temporary low. #ETH走势分析 $ETH

BTC Market Analysis 2026.06.15

Last week, we highlighted the significance of the green Gann angle line 3/1 (60800) and the blue Gann angle line 2/1 (66300). Following that, BTC dipped to 60800 and then bounced back. At the same time, we notified the group that we cleared most of our short positions.

Currently, BTC is hovering near the blue Gann angle line 2/1. What's the outlook?

We need to keep an eye on whether the daily candlestick can close above 66300. If it closes above and doesn't break the daily low, the bounce starting from 59100 could potentially grow into a larger correction targeting the overall decline from 82850 to 59100.

If we can break through 67300-68200, it will fully confirm an expanded bounce level. Under this scenario, the rebound could last until late this month, with a peak not exceeding early July and the bounce shouldn't go beyond 73800. After the rebound ends, we can expect a retracement of the same level or even a new downturn. The extent of the drop is yet to be determined, but it’s clear there will be a solid trading opportunity.

The green Gann angle line 3/1 remains the lifeline for this rebound, and its current position is at 61400. $BTC
#美国伊朗终战协议

Just caught some news, Trump and the Prime Minister of Pakistan are both hinting at a US-Iran peace deal that might get signed this Sunday.

But what’s Iran saying? The narrative is a bit different—they’re just saying "ready to sign," not confirming the Sunday date.

So now we’re in a bit of a "truth or dare" situation, trying to figure out who’s genuine and who’s bluffing.

But I’ve got a good sense of it. No matter the terms, the probability of it getting signed is actually pretty high. The only variable is whether it actually happens on Sunday—that directly impacts whether I should short WTI.

The logic is simple: if they sign on Sunday → expectations of the Strait of Hormuz reopening → oil prices could drop to at least $78.

Here’s my current play:

I’ve set a short position at Brent around $86 to hedge against a rebound.

Then, I pulled all my positions in WTI out.

Why pull out? Because I’ve already racked up a 112% profit, so taking everything out means I’m locking in at least 12% net profit in my pocket.

What am I saving this cash for? To wait for Sunday.

If they actually sign and oil prices drop, I’ll use that cash to short WTI while pulling my Brent positions—basically a reallocation strategy.

If the deal gets delayed or falls through, I’ll keep my Brent short and close out WTI, which should still secure about 70% of my profits.

If oil prices keep climbing, I’ll wait for $88 to re-enter a short on WTI.

If it drops straight down, I’ll focus solely on Brent.

As for BTC, I’m not worried at all.

I’m already positioned around $61,000, looking to scoop up some more.

Honestly, at the $60K level, there’s quite a bit of buying interest, so adding to my stack isn’t a bad idea.

The only concern is: if the deal actually gets signed on Sunday, market risk aversion might ease, and Bitcoin will likely pump.

It’d be awkward if I can’t scoop any then...

So I reckon I’ll have to make some moves on Sunday, and if all else fails, I’ll just grab some spot BTC. #美伊和谈巴方称协议文本已定 $BTC

MSTR Market Analysis 2026.06.12

From a fundamental perspective, MSTR's core issue isn't the fading BTC narrative, but rather the simultaneous pressure on its stock price from BTC's decline, rising financing costs, and shrinking valuation premiums.

The company is still executing its main strategy of 'continuously accumulating BTC', but this has led to a significant problem—MSTR is too sensitive to BTC price fluctuations. In Q1, the company recorded large unrealized losses due to the drop in BTC's fair value, resulting in a net loss of $12.54 billion on its financial statements. The market is increasingly concerned about MSTR's capital structure.

From a technical standpoint, the decline that started at 543 corresponds to the same level of the prior increase from 12.24 to 543, which belongs to the monthly chart.

Recently, keep a close eye on the critical level at 116.2. If we see two consecutive weekly candlestick bodies breaking below this level without a recovery, MSTR may accelerate its downward trend.

Once we identify the endpoint of the decline that started at 543, MSTR could experience a rebound targeting this drop (illustrated in the blue segment) or a monthly-level increase comparable to the movement from 12.24 to 543 (illustrated in the right-side red segment). The key to distinguishing between the two scenarios lies in the outcome at 38.5, this lifeline. #MSTR $MSTR

ETH Market Analysis 2026.06.12

The green Gann angle line 3/1 is a crucial pivot point for ETH, so keep your eyes peeled in the coming days!

Next, we focus on the green Gann angle line 3/1 (1790) in Chart 1. We need to hold above the rebound level starting from 1505 to expand our bullish momentum (as shown in the red box). If this path plays out, the downturn will hit a pause, and the bounce could last until late June or early July. Otherwise, we're just looking at a dead cat bounce targeting the blue segment shown (indicated by the blue box), and after the rebound ends, we're likely to keep searching for a bottom. #ETH走势分析 $ETH

BTC Market Analysis 2026.06.12

As shown in Chart 1, the blue Gann angle line 2/1 rebounded from 60K to 82,850 after its first test without breaking. Currently, BTC is positioned below this line (66,300), which has become a significant resistance level.

Whether BTC can reclaim the blue Gann angle line 2/1 will serve as a right-side confirmation signal to determine if the downtrend that started from 82,850 has ended. As long as it fails to solidify above, the rebound level from 59,130 cannot be expanded, meaning the downtrend that began at 82,850 is still in play. You can refer to this logic to create your trading plan.

After BTC dropped from 126K to 80,600, I mentioned in my post: "The bear market has begun; 126,000–80,600 is the first wave of the main decline in this bear market."

Based on this structural breakdown logic, I executed a long position on November 21, betting on a rebound of the same level as 126K–80,600. Later, when BTC rebounded to around 97K, I started to close my longs and opened shorts, adding to my short position on the right side at 91K, then holding all the way down to around 62K.

From 60K, a rebound of the same level as 97,900–60K began running, still following the above strategy: betting on a similar level rebound + continuing to short after the rebound ends.

Since May, I have repeatedly advised to short, adding to my positions at 82K, 81K, 78K, and 73K, until it broke below 60K, taking profits on most of my short positions while keeping a core position for the game. If the recent rebound from 59,130 shows signs of ending, I will consider adding back the positions I took profits on.

Since the trend is downward, every rebound is merely a correction of the preceding decline. Therefore, it’s not about guessing how high the rebound can go, but rather about entering short positions at the end of the rebound. This has been my core logic for continuously shorting this year. #比特币跌至5.9万美元后反弹 $BTC

GOOG Google Market Analysis 2026.06.11

Since the update in 2025, I've been telling everyone that Google is one of my top picks, and I've been steadily increasing my position and holding it as a quality asset. Today, let's break down Google's structure using the daily candlestick chart:

Unlike the storage sector and most US stocks that have begun significant corrections, Google's correction level remains uncertain. As long as the pullback from 404.47 doesn't break below the 311-300 range, it could still be a correction targeting the upward movement represented by the blue segment, rather than the overall red segment.

In this scenario, after finding a pullback endpoint above 311-300, Google has another potential upward movement on par with the blue segment. Moving forward, we'll keep an eye on whether Google's correction level will expand.

If we confirm it’s indeed a minor correction, I’ll look for opportunities to take some profits after a new high; if the correction level expands, there will be excellent opportunities to accumulate more in the second half of the year, which is great news for those who missed out on Google's red segment rally. #谷歌 $GOOGL

From last year to this year, the financial markets have seen retail liquidations popping up almost periodically. The second half of 2025 is set for cryptocurrencies, early 2026 is for precious metals, and recently, we've seen stocks, gold, and crypto all take a dive.

On the surface, it seems like it's all about the international situation, inflation, and policy expectations, but dig a little deeper, and you'll see it's the cycles at play.

What’s truly terrifying in trading isn’t just being wrong about the direction but losing control over your position and leverage. Many folks may have the right big picture, yet still end up in the red. Why is that?

Because just one little prick or a liquidity crunch can wipe out those high-leverage accounts in a heartbeat.

A week or a month of gains can easily create the illusion that the market will move according to your whims. But in reality, it's the opposite; the financial markets are ruthless in eliminating overly confident traders first.

What bankrupts countless individuals isn’t the bear market, but the volatility. That's why I've come to believe more and more in the phrase—slow is fast.

There are many who make quick bucks, but few who survive long-term. The biggest secret to investing and trading is pretty straightforward—first, survive, then patiently wait for the cycle to reach a buying stage, gradually stack your positions, and then hold until springtime blooms.

Cycles are always present; liquidity will ease up, interest rate cuts will come, risk appetite will recover, and new themes will emerge. The market never lacks opportunities. What’s missing is having the chips ready when it’s time to play.

In recent years, with the international situation in turmoil, the global financial order is being restructured, and the volatility of various financial assets will only increase. But crises and opportunities are two sides of the same coin; when everyone is panicking, it’s often the starting point for a cyclical buy.

I believe that in the second half of 2026, whether in the stock market or the crypto space, we might see some significant accumulation windows worth paying attention to.

As for gold, I lean more towards viewing it as part of an asset allocation rather than a quick-rich tool. For most people, gradually buying in, holding long-term, and consistently dollar-cost averaging into gold yields returns that can outperform most bank managers’ recommended products over an extended timeline.

The market is always full of opportunities; I hope that when those opportunities arise, everyone is still at the table.