煌道 | 交易之道搬运号

I am very pleased to share with everyone that my first-generation AI quantitative trading robot has officially been in operation for a whole month. During this time, if we exclude the initial test positions used for system debugging, the program has actually completed a total of 3 effective trades. The final trading results were two wins and one loss, successfully achieving an overall profit of 10%, while strictly controlling the capital drawdown at 1.4%.

Overall, the current real trading performance has basically met my initial expectations. The system not only fully demonstrates the robust advantages of low drawdown but also shows very solid core data, maintaining a win rate of 50% and a risk-reward ratio of 1:3. Looking to the future, I will continue to optimize and iterate this system and plan to gradually introduce brand new trading strategies in order to further enhance the overall utilization of capital.

3.14 Market Observation and Discussion: Has the US Stock Market Entered a Bear Market Cycle?

Today, we will delve into an analysis of recent market movements. Observing the current macro financial environment, the three major stock indices have all comprehensively lost their bull market support zone at the weekly level, and have simultaneously broken down through a horizontal consolidation range that lasted for 3 months. Based on the trend of the market, the current state has already shown 70% conformity to the typical characteristics of a transition from a bull market to a bear market. In the upcoming developments, if the indices continue to decline and break below the previous phase's low points, the judgment that the US stock market has fully entered a bear market will be further confirmed.

At the same time, turning our attention to the cryptocurrency asset field, it can be observed that the timing of the cryptocurrency market entering a bear market usually occurs earlier than that of the US stock market; however, the final bottoming rhythm of these two major markets often remains synchronized. Based on this pattern, the current 60,000 threshold has not yet approached the true bear market bottom for BTC, and there is still space below.

Additionally, as BTC has already experienced a round of price halving in the earlier phase, its recent overall performance has begun to decouple from the US stock market trends, exhibiting a clear independent market performance. Therefore, the rebound trend originally expected to emerge during the months of March to April is still anticipated to arrive as scheduled. Everyone can continue to pay attention and view market fluctuations rationally.

March 13 Market Analysis: US Stocks Enter Bear Market Zone, Cryptocurrency Counter-Trend Recovery

Looking back at yesterday's trading performance, the US stock market continued its downward trend, which can be said to have half stepped into the threshold of a bear market. However, the cryptocurrency sector has not been affected by the decline of the US stocks and has maintained an overall upward trend. Exploring the reasons behind this, it is mainly because BTC had already entered the bear market cycle a step earlier and had already undergone a deep adjustment with a price halving before this.

What is even more noteworthy is that despite the current strong bearish sentiment in the market, and BTC having shown a negative funding rate for several consecutive trading days recently, this upward rebound has been steadily continuing.

3.12 Market Dynamics Observation: The US Stock Market May Have Touched the Edge of a Bear Market

The recent performance of the market has attracted widespread attention. By analyzing the futures trends of the three major stock indices, we can see that they have all slipped below the support range of a bull market. This signal is very critical, as it suggests that the US stock market has actually put half a foot into the bear market territory. Of course, to ultimately confirm this trend, we need to closely observe the movements of the spot index going forward. If the spot market also fails to hold the bull market support range and continues to decline in the coming weeks, even breaking through previous lows, then the bear market pattern will be fully validated.

Meanwhile, the recent fluctuations in BTC's market performance are also worth noting. Its movement is gradually transitioning from earlier significant volatility to the current narrow consolidation phase. At this critical juncture, if the US stock market really establishes a bear market direction, influenced by the overall market environment, BTC is very likely to face a test of re-attempting to probe the important threshold of 60,000.

March 11 Wide Range Fluctuation Market Analysis

Regarding the US stock market, the overall trend this week has shown a pattern of opening low and closing high, and it has temporarily held the support position of the bull-bear boundary. Given that the CPI data will be released tonight, it is recommended to pay close attention to the closing situation this week.

As for BTC, the current price is still maintaining a wide fluctuation within the range of 60,000 to 74,000. It is expected that the subsequent market will undergo a process of transitioning from wide fluctuations to narrow consolidation, and is likely to welcome the strongest rebound in this bear market cycle.

3.10 Market Observation: Are U.S. Stocks at the End of a Bull Market or the Beginning of a Bear Market?

Looking back at yesterday's trading, U.S. stock indices showed a repair trend of opening lower and closing higher. This week's closing situation will be a crucial watershed, directly verifying whether U.S. stocks have completed their adjustments, are ready to hit new highs, and are playing out the final stage of a bull market, or if they will unfortunately fall below the key support zone of the bull market, thus officially establishing a bear market pattern.

On the other hand, regardless of whether U.S. stocks subsequently confirm a bear trend, BTC has actually entered a bear market cycle ahead of time, with prices experiencing a halving-style correction. Currently, the price area around 60,000 is brewing the strongest rebound in this downward cycle. Of course, investors also need to be aware that near this position, there is still a possibility of downward probing or the emergence of false breakdown patterns.

#BTC

3.6 Market Dynamics: Cryptocurrency Assets Maintain Rebound, U.S. Stocks Face Severe Test

In terms of Bitcoin's market, BTC experienced a pullback after breaking through 72000. Although the expected final rebound target is above 80,000, this increase is difficult to achieve in one go, and the subsequent market is expected to primarily see repeated ups and downs.

On the other hand, affected by the rise in oil prices yesterday, the Dow experienced a significant drop. Currently, the three major U.S. stock indices are nearing the bull market support zone, putting the overall bull market pattern in jeopardy. It is recommended that everyone closely monitor market trends; once the support level is effectively broken, the U.S. stock market may officially enter a bear market cycle.

In the past month, I focused on utilizing AI-assisted technology to successfully build a quantitative strategy development platform for cryptocurrency. During the development process, I extensively tested and used a variety of large language models, including opus4.6, sonnet4.6, chatgpt5.3, gemini3, as well as domestic LLMs such as MINIMAX and DOUBAO.

After this period of practical testing, I have drawn some insights regarding coding capabilities: although Claude Opus is relatively slow and expensive, it undoubtedly leads in technical strength. The most significant advantage of Gemini3 is its extremely fast response speed. ChatGPT5.3 performs on par with Sonnet4.6 in programming, both at a comparable level. In contrast, the domestic large models tested this time appear relatively basic in capability, currently feeling like they are only at an elementary school level.

Regarding the topic of whether it is profitable to use artificial intelligence for cryptocurrency trading, after extensively using openclaw and claude code, and spending hundreds of millions of tokens, I have summarized some personal insights.

First of all, it is unrealistic to expect AI to actively create wealth for you. Many people have a misconception that simply issuing instructions to AI for stock or coin trading will automatically lead to profits. However, the reality is that most participants in the recent AI cryptocurrency trading competition ended up with losses.

Secondly, the true core role of AI lies in transforming your ideas into reality. If excellent ideas are the underlying framework, then AI is the force that gives it substance and helps it to continuously iterate and evolve. Through this assistance, perfection can ultimately bring about returns.

Thirdly, artificial intelligence will bridge the gap in cognition. In the past, most people's means of profit relied on information asymmetry and cognitive differences. If the internet era eliminated information asymmetry, then the AI era will further eliminate cognitive gaps. For example, it is like equipping a student who does not perform well with AI tools, allowing them to have the capability to gain admission to Tsinghua University or Peking University.

Fourthly, for entrepreneurs, this is the best of times. Looking back at the historical process, profits were made by creating websites in the internet era, by developing apps in the mobile internet era, and now in the AI era, the core opportunity lies in building intelligent agents. Whoever can effectively use AI to create intelligent agents that truly solve practical problems will achieve economic returns.

Finally, regarding how to truly master the use of AI, we can categorize it into several tiers. The bronze tier is limited to using general large models for basic chatting and searching. The silver tier understands how to use precise prompts, i.e., using accurate keywords to assign specific tasks to AI as a capable assistant. The gold tier has mastered automation and workflows, able to decompose, distribute complex tasks, and achieve collaboration, batch processing, and automated operations, which is equivalent to commanding AI as a team. Reaching this level typically enables monetization through AI. The diamond tier involves building proprietary vertical AI, training it using private data and strategies, enhancing algorithms, and forming a closed-loop of data feedback. Typically, those who reach this level are professional institutions in fields such as research or quantitative finance.

March 4 Market Analysis: U.S. Stock Trends at a Critical Juncture

First, the S&P index has maintained a high-level consolidation for nearly the past 5 months, creating a low-volatility fluctuation area. From the perspective of market nature, this is a typical distribution zone, and it also signifies that the current bull market in U.S. stocks has entered its final phase.

Second, from the weekly technical pattern perspective, the index is currently right at the edge of the bull market support zone. The upcoming trend is crucial: if a large bearish candle on the weekly chart appears and breaks this support, it would signify the end of the bull market and the official onset of a bear market. Conversely, if the support holds and does not break, but instead continues to break upwards to create new highs, then everyone needs to remain vigilant, as this is highly likely to be the final lure for investors and the last opportunity to exit the market.

Third, looking back at historical patterns, in past bear market cycles, the declines in U.S. stock indices have invariably exceeded 20%.

March 3 Market Review: Strong Reversal After a Low Opening

Due to the impact of sudden news over the weekend, the Nasdaq index experienced a gap down of over 1% during yesterday's opening phase. However, the market subsequently demonstrated strong recovery ability, with the index fluctuating upward and ultimately achieving a closing gain. During this process, the cryptocurrency sector experienced a broad-based rally, while the precious metals market saw gold and silver surge momentarily but ultimately weakened and retreated.

Regarding the future performance of BTC, it is expected to continue fluctuating within the range of 60,000 to 72,000. Throughout March, it is highly likely that there will be no unilateral trend, and the market characteristics will more likely reflect a convergence from wide fluctuations to narrow fluctuations. Investors should realize that the current sideways consolidation is actually preparing for the strongest rebound under the backdrop of a brewing bear market, representing a key accumulation phase.

March 2 Market Analysis: Outlook for Wide Fluctuations

Regarding the sudden outbreak of the US-Iran conflict over the weekend, the market's final reaction shows that the impact is actually quite limited. Although US stock index futures opened lower in the early trading phase, they subsequently rose sharply, with the actual decline being negligible. Meanwhile, BTC has also demonstrated recovery capability, essentially filling in the previous decline. In this event, the most obvious beneficiaries are undoubtedly gold and silver.

For the subsequent trends of BTC, after experiencing a halving-level adjustment, it is expected to mainly maintain a fluctuating pattern from February to March. The market is likely to first fluctuate widely within the range of 60,000 to 72,000, before transitioning to a narrow consolidation. It is worth noting that during this period, there is a certain probability of false breakouts resembling pin bars. The actual trend confirmation still needs to wait for the end of the fluctuation period, with expectations for a relatively strong rebound in April.

#BTC

3.2 The market is showing a wide range of fluctuations

Regarding the sudden news of the US-Iran conflict over the weekend, the actual impact appears to be quite limited at present. Observing the early trading data, although US stock index futures opened lower, they subsequently rose, and the overall decline is not significant; meanwhile, BTC has also demonstrated strong recovery capabilities, essentially filling in the previous decline.

For the subsequent trend, after BTC has experienced a price halving, it is expected that from February to March, it will mainly maintain a fluctuating pattern. Initially, there is a high probability of wide fluctuations within the range of 60,000 to 72,000, and then it will shift to a narrow consolidation. Investors need to be aware that there is a possibility of false breakouts caused by spikes during this process. A genuine trending market will need to wait for this fluctuation period to end, and according to expectations, the market is likely to welcome a strong rebound in April.

Despite the stunning performance announced by Nvidia, its stock price unexpectedly experienced a 5% pullback, forming a stark contrast to the previous market performance that surged by 20% immediately after the earnings report was released. Undeniably, artificial intelligence will be the most critical development opportunity in the next decade; however, the costs incurred by tech giants are also extremely high, often requiring investments of hundreds of billions of dollars. It is estimated that by fiscal year 2026, the total cost expenditures of the top 20 global tech companies in the AI field will approach the trillion-dollar mark. Due to the combined effects of such massive capital expenditures, energy supply bottlenecks, and uncertainties from the mid-term elections, the US stock market is likely to enter a bear market in the second half of the year. However, for investors, the market adjustment period is often a golden opportunity for strategic positioning in the AI sector.

2.27 Market trends often do not play by the rules

The day before yesterday, BTC experienced a sudden and significant rebound after completing its second bottom test, which indeed exceeded the expectations of most people and disrupted the rhythm of those waiting for the 50,000 mark.

Seeing this large bullish candlestick established, some people's confidence surged, and they began to shout slogans for the rapid return of the bull market.

However, my personal judgment is that the entire months of February and March will maintain a large range oscillation between 60,000 and 72,000. During this period, there is no definite direction, mainly characterized by repeated up and down fluctuations. In fact, the core intention of the oscillation is to facilitate the turnover of holdings to unify costs, thereby organizing the next trend, and a truly strong rebound market is expected to start only from April.

#BTC

2.27 The market often defies the expectations of the majority
1. The sudden rebound of BTC after the second test the day before yesterday caught many off guard, especially those who were anticipating 50,000
2. The large bullish candlestick has led some to start proclaiming that the bull market is back
3. I believe that the entire period from February to March will see a broad fluctuation between 60,000 and 72,000, with no clear trend, moving back and forth. The purpose of this fluctuation is to unify the holding costs and organize the next trend, with a strong rebound expected starting in April

#BTC

February 26 Market Outlook for the Coming Months

In terms of the US stock market, although the indices are expected to set new historical records, this actually signifies that the bull market has entered its final stage. With the second half of the year approaching, influenced by uncertainties in the midterm elections and concerns about the significant investments from tech giants in AI, the US stock market will likely enter a bear market.

The bear market cycle in the crypto market typically appears significantly earlier than in the US stock market. Looking ahead to the next few months, we will witness the most intense rebound in the crypto space during this bear market. It is important to note that this process will not be smooth sailing. While the second bottom test seems to have ended, it is highly likely that there will be further repeated tests, potentially a third or even fourth. The overall rhythm is expected to involve significant wide fluctuations in the early stages, followed by a strong rebound later on.

#BTC

February 26 analysis and outlook on market conditions for the coming months

Regarding the U.S. stock market, although the indices are expected to refresh historical highs, this marks the end stage of the bull market cycle. With the uncertainties brought by the mid-term elections in the second half of the year, along with the significant upfront investments by major tech companies in AI, the U.S. stock market is expected to begin transitioning to a bear market.

For the cryptocurrency sector, its bear market often arrives earlier than that of the U.S. stock market. In the coming months, the cryptocurrency market will experience the strongest rebound recovery in this bear market cycle. Of course, this process will not be completed instantly. The second bottoming phase has already ended, but there may still be three or even four bottoming occurrences in the future. The market trend is expected to show a pattern of large-scale fluctuations followed by a strong rebound.

2.26 The trends in the coming months
1. The US stock market will hit new highs, but it is also entering the late stage of a bull market. The uncertainty of the mid-term elections in the second half of the year and the massive initial investments in AI by various tech companies will cause the US stock market to start a bear phase.
2. The bear market in the cryptocurrency space always comes much earlier than in the US stock market. In the coming months, the cryptocurrency market will experience the strongest rebound in the bear market cycle. This will not happen all at once; the second probing has ended, and there will still be a third and even a fourth probing. Initially, there will be wide fluctuations, followed by a strong rebound later.
#BTC

February 25 Market Analysis: The second bottom testing is declared over, and the truth often belongs to a minority.

1. When the market is in extreme panic and the general outlook is bearish to 50,000 or even 40,000, I still firmly believe that the 60,000 level is a temporary bottom area. This will initiate the strongest wave of rebound during the bear market phase, with prices expected to rise at least to 80,000, and the entire upward process is expected to last 2 to 4 months.

2. Regarding BTC's trend, my earlier prediction of the second bottom testing and liquidity cleansing range mainly focuses on 62000 to 66000. Today's morning market's sudden surge has already clearly confirmed the establishment of the second bottom low point.