Tony_Hills
Bitcoiner|| Community Moderator||Crypto.Forex Trader|| Content Creator @JosephTonyHill1 on X/Twitter.
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Perp Funding has turned firmly negative across major exchanges.
Since the February drawdown, traders have shifted from aggressive long positioning to a more defensive short bias.
This reflects:
Weak market confidence
Increased hedging activity
Potential for short squeezes if momentum turns higher
Stay Guided and Alert.
$BNB
$BTC
Since the February drawdown, traders have shifted from aggressive long positioning to a more defensive short bias.
This reflects:
Weak market confidence
Increased hedging activity
Potential for short squeezes if momentum turns higher
Stay Guided and Alert.
$BNB
$BTC
With net realized profit turning positive, the focus now shifts to whether buy-side liquidity is strong enough to absorb increasing long-term holder distribution.
The 14-day SMA of Realized Profit from holders with supply older than one year has risen to roughly $180M/day following the rally — levels comparable to September 2024 and December 2022.
Long-term holders are increasingly taking profits, making sustained demand crucial for continuation higher.
$BTC
$BNB
The 14-day SMA of Realized Profit from holders with supply older than one year has risen to roughly $180M/day following the rally — levels comparable to September 2024 and December 2022.
Long-term holders are increasingly taking profits, making sustained demand crucial for continuation higher.
$BTC
$BNB
As BTC approached $80K, this metric spiked to ~$4M/hour — about 4x the baseline since mid-April.
This confirms:
* Short-term holders used the rally to distribute
* Buy-side liquidity was insufficient, leading to rejection
How to read this metric:
* Baseline → reflects overall buy-side strength/liquidity
* Peaks → act as reliable local top signals
👉 Current structure suggests rallies are still being sold into, keeping upside capped until stronger demand returns.
$BTC
$BNB
This confirms:
* Short-term holders used the rally to distribute
* Buy-side liquidity was insufficient, leading to rejection
How to read this metric:
* Baseline → reflects overall buy-side strength/liquidity
* Peaks → act as reliable local top signals
👉 Current structure suggests rallies are still being sold into, keeping upside capped until stronger demand returns.
$BTC
$BNB
Positioning is now the key driver.
$80K strike seeing strong buying → traders positioning for upside test, not rejection
Volatility & skew easing → calmer surface, but setup building underneath
Gamma levels to watch:
* $76K (downside) → risk of accelerated moves lower
* $82K (upside) → breakout zone where momentum can expand
Implication:
A break above $80K could quickly push price toward $82K, where short gamma hedging may amplify the rally.
👉 Market still cautious, but positioning is leaning toward upside expansion.
$BTC
$BNB
$80K strike seeing strong buying → traders positioning for upside test, not rejection
Volatility & skew easing → calmer surface, but setup building underneath
Gamma levels to watch:
* $76K (downside) → risk of accelerated moves lower
* $82K (upside) → breakout zone where momentum can expand
Implication:
A break above $80K could quickly push price toward $82K, where short gamma hedging may amplify the rally.
👉 Market still cautious, but positioning is leaning toward upside expansion.
$BTC
$BNB
WTI crude briefly crossed $100, driven by escalating U.S.–Iran tensions
Ongoing blockade and stalled talks are disrupting flows through the Strait of Hormuz
Around 20% of global oil supply passes through this route → major supply shock risk
Shipping traffic has collapsed, tightening supply and pushing prices higher
Market Impact:
Energy markets → bullish (supply squeeze)
Global markets → risk-off sentiment rising
Inflation concerns → back in focus
$BTC
$XAU
Ongoing blockade and stalled talks are disrupting flows through the Strait of Hormuz
Around 20% of global oil supply passes through this route → major supply shock risk
Shipping traffic has collapsed, tightening supply and pushing prices higher
Market Impact:
Energy markets → bullish (supply squeeze)
Global markets → risk-off sentiment rising
Inflation concerns → back in focus
$BTC
$XAU
@CrytoHayes made a strong point: insider trading should be legalized as free markets work best when all information is priced in quickly. Insiders trading on Polymarket and Kalshi already show trending signals before major events.
Yet full legalization risks eroding retail trust and fairness. A balanced approach -stricter corporate rules but freer prediction markets -could deliver efficiency without losing integrity.
Smarter regulation beats blunt bans.
NFA|DYOR
What’s your take?
Catch the full AMA here: AMA with CryptoHayes
Yet full legalization risks eroding retail trust and fairness. A balanced approach -stricter corporate rules but freer prediction markets -could deliver efficiency without losing integrity.
Smarter regulation beats blunt bans.
NFA|DYOR
What’s your take?
Catch the full AMA here: AMA with CryptoHayes
ETH price trending lower while 100D SMA of active addresses hits a new all-time high of ~587,000 — a rare and significant divergence from historical correlation.
Real user engagement accelerating despite bearish sentiment, suggesting ETH may be undervalued. Historically, price tends to catch up with network growth — making this a hidden bullish signal for fundamental focused investors.
$ETH
Real user engagement accelerating despite bearish sentiment, suggesting ETH may be undervalued. Historically, price tends to catch up with network growth — making this a hidden bullish signal for fundamental focused investors.
$ETH
Why Order Block First Touch Confuse Traders.
Where the Real Entry Actually Is
$BNB
Where the Real Entry Actually Is
$BNB
Bitcoin is flashing a bullish signal.
Your Vector framework shows:
* Momentum: At 1 → well above the +0.5 bullish threshold
* Risk Index: Fully reset at 0 → low-risk environment
This combination is notable:
* Strong momentum confirmation
* Minimal downside risk pressure
Historically, this setup has aligned with major upside phases, while helping avoid drawdowns during bearish periods.
Interpretation:
* Market structure → constructive
* Positioning → favorable for upside continuation
* Risk/reward → skewed bullish
When both momentum expands and risk resets, it often marks the early phase of a larger move.
$BTC
Your Vector framework shows:
* Momentum: At 1 → well above the +0.5 bullish threshold
* Risk Index: Fully reset at 0 → low-risk environment
This combination is notable:
* Strong momentum confirmation
* Minimal downside risk pressure
Historically, this setup has aligned with major upside phases, while helping avoid drawdowns during bearish periods.
Interpretation:
* Market structure → constructive
* Positioning → favorable for upside continuation
* Risk/reward → skewed bullish
When both momentum expands and risk resets, it often marks the early phase of a larger move.
$BTC
It was an amazing session with you bro 💹🚀
Successful session on Trading Confluence today. Clean breakdowns, live examples, and proper understanding of how price actually moves.
@Tanya Abbir @Tony_Hills
$BNB $BTC
#TradeConfluence
#TechnicalAnalysiss
#Descipline_Patience_Execute
{spot}(BTCUSDT)
{spot}(BNBUSDT)
@Tanya Abbir @Tony_Hills
$BNB $BTC
#TradeConfluence
#TechnicalAnalysiss
#Descipline_Patience_Execute
{spot}(BTCUSDT)
{spot}(BNBUSDT)
Realized P/L Ratio at 1.16 — investors broadly using the rally to exit at breakeven or capture thin profits. Historically, such spikes during bear market rallies signal distribution rather than genuine recovery.
For a structural shift to occur, a significant demand catalyst is needed to absorb selling and sustain price above the True Market Mean at $78.1K.
$BTC
For a structural shift to occur, a significant demand catalyst is needed to absorb selling and sustain price above the True Market Mean at $78.1K.
$BTC
In the options market for iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), the put/call ratio is fluctuating sharply, with BTC around $70K and rapid position rotation underway.
This reflects a market where:
* Direction is still unclear
* Both hedging and speculative positioning are increasing
* Traders are actively rebalancing exposure
Interpretation:
Positioning is getting crowded on both sides — a setup that often leads to volatility expansion once a clear direction emerges.
$BNB
This reflects a market where:
* Direction is still unclear
* Both hedging and speculative positioning are increasing
* Traders are actively rebalancing exposure
Interpretation:
Positioning is getting crowded on both sides — a setup that often leads to volatility expansion once a clear direction emerges.
$BNB
In the futures market, Open Interest is rising, signaling increasing risk appetite.
This also means the market is becoming more sensitive to price movements, with larger positions building up — often leading to stronger volatility in either direction.
$CHIP
$TRADOOR
$BNB
This also means the market is becoming more sensitive to price movements, with larger positions building up — often leading to stronger volatility in either direction.
$CHIP
$TRADOOR
$BNB
Please Set your reminder and dont miss it! 💹🚀
Binance Square Official
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📅 April 21, 2026 to April 25, 2026
@Ceo_crypto25 : April 21, 5PM UTC
Market Insights & How To Trade During This War Period
@BeyOglu - The Analyst : April 22, 3PM UTC
🎙️Binance introduces Chat feature lets talk about the Benefits!
@Jana Crypto Queen FT @yikesqq : April 23, 5AM UTC
WTF CRYPTO EP: WE'RE SO BACK with Jana Crypto Queen and Yikes 🔥
@Tony_Hills : April 24, 3PM UTC
🎙️Trade Confluence Live w/ Tony_Hills
@RealCryptoMama : April 25, 4.20PM UTC
🎙️👉If I Had 100 in Crypto Today. Here’s What I’d Do & Why?
@Fealty Cripto : April 25, 4PM UTC
Cripto zion Valor geracional.Lealdade cripto (pt-BR)
Get your trading edge, learn about Macro Topics, AI and more with our daily livestreams on Binance Square! 🚀
Interested to stream? Sign up for our Binance Square Live Trading Incubation Group 👉 HERE
📅 April 21, 2026 to April 25, 2026
@Ceo_crypto25 : April 21, 5PM UTC
Market Insights & How To Trade During This War Period
@BeyOglu - The Analyst : April 22, 3PM UTC
🎙️Binance introduces Chat feature lets talk about the Benefits!
@Jana Crypto Queen FT @yikesqq : April 23, 5AM UTC
WTF CRYPTO EP: WE'RE SO BACK with Jana Crypto Queen and Yikes 🔥
@Tony_Hills : April 24, 3PM UTC
🎙️Trade Confluence Live w/ Tony_Hills
@RealCryptoMama : April 25, 4.20PM UTC
🎙️👉If I Had 100 in Crypto Today. Here’s What I’d Do & Why?
@Fealty Cripto : April 25, 4PM UTC
Cripto zion Valor geracional.Lealdade cripto (pt-BR)
Get your trading edge, learn about Macro Topics, AI and more with our daily livestreams on Binance Square! 🚀
Strategy now holds over 800,000 Bitcoins.
The latest purchase of 34,164 was the 3rd biggest in MSTR history, with just two purchases after the Trump election bigger
The latest purchase of 34,164 was the 3rd biggest in MSTR history, with just two purchases after the Trump election bigger
Implied volatility is compressing across the curve.
Following the Iran ceasefire headlines, IV has dropped significantly:
* Short-dated IV: now in the low 40s
* 6-month IV: around ~45%
This aligns with broader market behavior — volatility expectations have eased as traders price in reduced immediate geopolitical risk, even though tensions haven’t fully disappeared.
Key takeaway:
* Market expects a calmer near-term environment
* But conviction remains low
* Any negative headline can quickly reprice volatility higher again
Following the Iran ceasefire headlines, IV has dropped significantly:
* Short-dated IV: now in the low 40s
* 6-month IV: around ~45%
This aligns with broader market behavior — volatility expectations have eased as traders price in reduced immediate geopolitical risk, even though tensions haven’t fully disappeared.
Key takeaway:
* Market expects a calmer near-term environment
* But conviction remains low
* Any negative headline can quickly reprice volatility higher again
Trading rule #1: Wait for your signals.
Trading rule #2: Let price action tell you what to do.
Trading rule #3: Quantify your risk on every trade.
Trading rule #4: Accept small losses early or let a winner run.
Trading rule #5: Stay disciplined and follow your system.
$TRADOOR
$GUN
Trading rule #2: Let price action tell you what to do.
Trading rule #3: Quantify your risk on every trade.
Trading rule #4: Accept small losses early or let a winner run.
Trading rule #5: Stay disciplined and follow your system.
$TRADOOR
$GUN
Trading rule #1: Wait for your signals.
Trading rule #2: Let price action tell you what to do.
Trading rule #3: Quantify your risk on every trade.
Trading rule #4: Accept small losses early or let a winner run.
Trading rule #5: Stay disciplined and follow your system.
$TRADOOR
$GUN
Trading rule #2: Let price action tell you what to do.
Trading rule #3: Quantify your risk on every trade.
Trading rule #4: Accept small losses early or let a winner run.
Trading rule #5: Stay disciplined and follow your system.
$TRADOOR
$GUN
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