The first 4 months of 2025 have passed with too many lows. There have been times when I doubted myself, doubted the market, and wondered: "Is this still the right path?"
Anyone who steps into the crypto journey understands: this is not a game that lasts a day or two. This is a battle of patience, of faith in the ultimate super cycle. The behavior of market makers has changed, becoming more sophisticated and unpredictable, but the market psychology – greed and fear – remains as it always was.
Market makers do not control our behavior; what they do best is grasp the psychology. If we understand the nature, we will no longer be pawns. We will be the players, on equal footing.
Consider every drop as a learning opportunity, every loss as a test. Those who remain after the storm deserve the sunlight. Not everyone reaches the end of the road, but if we still hold onto the faith of the first day – then we are still winning.
Rest, but do not give up. Take a step back if necessary, but to prepare for a bigger leap. We have come too far to turn back. And if this is the ultimate super cycle, step into it with clarity, discipline, and a heart that never gives up.
The most senior and important figures of @Binance shared a lot of insights on the first day of the event: • Binance is very BULLISH on the market in Q1/2026 • Emphasized the importance of Crypto Wallet • Upgrade hardware and software for the next generation of Web3 • The market is growing thanks to sustainable legislation • Stablecoins are widely concerned
🔥 #BinanceBlockchainWeek will continue tomorrow and many interesting information is expected to be revealed!
If you want to ask Cz or Yi He any questions, please comment below!👇
Taker Buy/Sell Ratio on Binance: Needs Stability to Rally
Takers – those who match available buy and sell orders on the order book – are a crucial factor in determining price momentum. Data regarding their behavior reflects the balance of supply and demand and market sentiment in the short term. On Binance, the Taker Buy/Sell Momentum Signal is used to measure the inclination towards buying or selling, suggesting the market's upward or downward trend.
After the sharp drop of Bitcoin, data shows that sellers are clearly dominating. The fear sentiment is increasing selling pressure, while trading volume in futures contracts has significantly decreased. This indicates that the market is in a defensive state and lacks new capital inflow.
However, the decline in the average weekly Taker Buy/Sell ratio and the tightening price volatility suggest that the market may enter a short-term stabilization phase. If this quiet accumulation process continues, allowing fear to gradually subside and sellers to exhaust, a sustainable recovery of Bitcoin could form soon.
Binance leads the stablecoin inflow ahead of #CPI 📈
Stablecoins are returning to exchanges after the recent market downturn. The latest stablecoin inflow reached +3.2 billion dollars, marking one of the strongest liquidity increases in over a month. This is a clear sign that traders are preparing for a significant volatility around the upcoming CPI announcement.
30-day volatility of ERC-20 stablecoin reserves (USDT + USDC): - Binance: +1.423 billion dollars - Bybit: +1.228 billion dollars - OKX: +1.114 billion dollars - Other exchanges: -549.6 million dollars
The impacts are as follows: - If the CPI is lower than expected, this inflow could trigger a price increase as traders convert stablecoins into Bitcoin and altcoins.
- Conversely, if the CPI unexpectedly rises, these funds may continue to stay on the sidelines or exit, signaling caution and the potential for further declines.
Hyperliquid fights Binance after the record liquidation of 19 billion dollars
Hyperliquid, a DeFi platform, suffered a record liquidation of 1.23 billion dollars, with the liquidation of 6,300 wallets alone being wiped out
In a chaotic context, tensions escalate between the giants of DeFi and CeFi. Hyperliquid co-founder, Jeff, accused Binance of reporting lower liquidations than the reality, citing the behavior of aggregating their recorded orders - potentially reducing trading volume by 100 times during spikes - to highlight the on-chain transparency of DeFi compared to the lack of transparency in CeFi
Binance founder, CZ, hit back by emphasizing user protection, revealing that the exchange and its partners had voluntarily paid out 283 million dollars in compensation during the downtime
This conflict highlights the core divide in the ecosystem: innovation and transparency in DeFi versus risk minimization in CeFi. Conspiracy theories spread about X, accusing coordinated attacks, but regulators are currently investigating exchanges for the potential manipulation and abuse of leverage As the market rebounds, this incident exposes vulnerabilities in high-leverage trading, fueling calls for tighter oversight
In the past 24 hours, 1,661,559 traders have been liquidated, with a total liquidation value reaching 19.31 billion dollars
In the history of the cryptocurrency market, disasters always occur at the peak of excitement
▶️ March 12, 2020 — Black Thursday — 2 billion dollars were liquidated ▶️ May 19, 2021 — Incident 519 — 8 billion dollars ▶️ Now, on October 11, 2025, 19.3 billion dollars have been liquidated — the largest figure in cryptocurrency history, nearly ten times that of Black Thursday
Over the past five years, capital, leverage, and greed have grown exponentially; technology has advanced, liquidity has expanded — but human nature remains unchanged. Fear and greed continue to cycle
Stories of profits keep repeating, but lessons about risk are forgotten. History reminds us: it’s not just positions that get liquidated but also our respect for risk.
#Binance continues to lead the market while Bitcoin adjusts
After $BNB reached an All Time High on October 7, Binance has continued to launch the Meme Rush feature to boost the memecoin wave
#MemeRush allows users to access new memecoins early through the Web3 Wallet directly on the Binance interface Currently, the most prominent token is $BNBHolder, which has achieved a market capitalization of over $170M on its first day of launch
CA: 0x44440f83419de123d7d411187adb9962db017d03
With an explosion in just 2 days, we can see the potential of the #memecoin BNB is not small. However, opportunities come with risks, clearly define goals based on Risk - Reward to have the most reasonable strategy!
*Note: This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice or advertising
Price $BTC decrease: Who is the main seller on Binance?
After a strong price surge of Bitcoin reaching 126,000 dollars on October 7, the market experienced a slight correction, pulling the price back to the important threshold of 120,000 dollars. According to inflow data from exchanges, nearly 7,700 BTC were transferred to Binance on October 7, with over 7,500 BTC coming from short-term holders.
This indicates that the recent price drop was mainly due to short-term holders taking profits after a rapid price increase, while there was no significant selling pressure from older coins on Binance.
Considering the inflow of Bitcoin by wallet size, the data shows that the sell-off was not dominated by large investors. Instead, the selling pressure came from smaller wallet groups. On that day, the inflow was distributed as follows: - Shrimp (smallest holding group): 603 BTC - Crab: 2,260 BTC - Fish: 3,860 BTC - Whale: 768 BTC
Meanwhile, Whales and Humpback Whales, the largest holding groups, did not contribute to the selling pressure.
This pattern indicates that selling activity on Binance - the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange - is relatively small and carefully managed compared to previous large sell-offs. If this trend continues, and large holding groups remain inactive, the current decline may just be a short correction in the broader upward trend, paving the way for Bitcoin's price increase to continue.
$BNB achieved 1,300 dollars: The resurgence of Binance and the bridge to traditional finance
This growth is not a short-term speculative move but the result of structural recovery and deeper integration with traditional finance from Binance.
Since the end of September, both spot and futures CTD Taker have shown an upward trend, indicating the restoration of buyer dominance. This liquidity concentration lays a solid foundation for the strength of BNB, driving actual demand across trading, staking, and participating in Launchpad.
Market sentiment has improved after founder Changpeng “CZ” Zhao restored the title “Binance” on X profile. Meanwhile, the collaboration with Franklin Templeton to jointly develop tokenized securities (RWA) and with Chainlink to bring U.S. economic data on-chain marks significant progress towards institutional-grade DeFi.
All of the above has redefined BNB from a simple exchange token into a foundational asset connecting Web3 and traditional finance.
As Bitcoin has just reached a new all-time high, we can see the behavior of retail investors starting to change. The flow of BTC into Binance from addresses holding under 1 BTC is increasing significantly.
This trend is noteworthy, as the monthly average has not reached this level in recent months, a clear sign that retail investors are returning to the market. Although the total trading volume of this group remains relatively modest, it still reflects a meaningful behavioral change in the short term.
Although the total volume is still limited, this move is particularly interesting as it contrasts with the continuous accumulation by institutional investors and fund management companies. While these larger investors continue to solidify their positions, retail investors seem to be reacting more to the price surge as usual.
1.2 billion USD poured into BTC ETF on the day BTC surpassed $126,000
According to data aggregated from Farside Investors, the majority of BTC ETF inflows went into BlackRock's IBIT fund with 970 million USD, followed by Fidelity (FBTC) with 112.3 million USD and Bitwise (BITB) with 60.1 million USD. Smaller funds from ARK, Valkyrie, and VanEck also recorded positive inflows.
Notably, Grayscale's GBTC fund has no longer experienced negative inflows after a long period of continuous withdrawals. Today's impressive inflow has raised the total inflows into BTC ETF since its launch at the beginning of 2024 to over 61 billion USD.
Not only BTC, but funds investing in Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) also benefited from this wave. On the same day, BTC ETFs recorded positive inflows of 176.6 million USD, while SOL ETF attracted 2.7 million USD.
Overall, the explosion of BTC ETF and BTC reaching a new ATH is not only an important psychological milestone but also paves the way for leading altcoins to break out in Q4 of 2025. Many experts even optimistically predict that Bitcoin could aim for the $130,000 mark as early as October, marking the start of a new growth cycle for the global crypto market.
Bitcoin and the most recent Mid-Autumn Festivals 🌕📈
Looking back at the past four Mid-Autumn Festivals, the price of Bitcoin each year tells a different story — clearly reflecting the rhythm of each market cycle. 🔹 Mid-Autumn Festival 2021: Bitcoin around $48,000, a strong upward trend after surpassing the $40k mark – the market flooded with FOMO. 🔹 Mid-Autumn Festival 2022: Price dropped sharply to $19,000, amidst liquidation waves and wavering confidence. 🔹 Mid-Autumn Festival 2023: Bitcoin gradually recovering, around $27,000, the first signals indicating that capital is returning. 🔹 Mid-Autumn Festival 2024: Price breaking through to $63,000, driven by ETF expectations and institutional capital flows. Looking back, Bitcoin often accumulates or slightly adjusts around September, then breaks out in the last quarter of the year — when FOMO capital and new cycle expectations emerge.
🌙 This year’s Mid-Autumn Festival, will Bitcoin continue to “break the moon” to set new records, or will it be a period of accumulation before the next super wave?
The Perp DEX race has been ignited by the Hyperliquid frenzy and now, the flame continues to spread strongly by names like Aster and Lighter.
Aster is continuously shilled by the industry leader Binance on the media front, attracting a series of big players to pump the volume to over 500 billion USD just in the last 30 days. The price of $ASTER also benefits and continuously has upward waves after TGE.
Lighter is a new name in recent times. Farming points on Lighter's Perp to have the opportunity to receive an airdrop is the key that helps this project climb to the Top 3 Perp DEX with the highest volume (30D).
Bitcoin is currently in a balanced state with the potential for growth up to $130,000
The current volatility of Bitcoin is within the STH-MVRV price corridor - a measure that reflects the average profit of recent buyers.
The upper limit of this range (+1σ) is currently around $130,000 and serves as the area where short-term holders are more likely to take profits. Meanwhile, since the beginning of 2024, the price has consistently remained above the real average (the yellow line on the chart), indicating a sustainable bullish sentiment.
Bitcoin is currently in a balanced state within the established volatility corridor. Short-term dips below the baseline are quickly bought up, and the market structure remains healthy. If the current momentum continues, moving towards $130,000 seems feasible.
The price increase cycle is slow but still ongoing
In previous cycles, the final stage of the bull market coincided with a sharp decline in the long-term BTC holding ratio (especially for BTC held for over a year). This occurs when old BTC is sold off, new capital flows in, and liquidity floods the market.
When this decline reaches an inflection point, the market shifts from a bull cycle to a bear cycle (orange frame).
Currently, the one-year BTC holding ratio is gradually decreasing, indicating that the market has not yet peaked.
In summary, the current market is slowly progressing in the bull cycle, but there are no signs that it will end soon. In fact, a strong price increase may be imminent.
$BTC - An amount of 1.6 billion USD will be distributed to FTX creditors on September 30. $ETH - The Ethereum testnet for the Fusaka upgrade will launch on October 1. $S - The Sonic summit will take place on September 29, promising many important announcements. $PENDLE - Pendle is expected to operate on Plasma in the coming days. $FF - Falcon Finance will launch the FF token on September 29. $ETHFI - EtherFi is rumored to announce an important update regarding the ETHFI token on October 1 during a meeting with analysts. $HUMA - Huma Finance will make an important announcement on October 1. $XAN - Anoma will launch a token named XAN on September 29.
After a difficult period, the market is gradually showing signals of recovery. Let's review the top 8 notable coins of the week to help traders develop suitable trading strategies.
The influx of funds into Bitcoin exchanges is decreasing, signaling a potential change in market sentiment.
The provided chart shows the 7-day moving average of total funds flowing into Bitcoin across all exchanges, indicating a continuous decline. This trend can be interpreted in various ways.
While high inflows into spot exchanges typically indicate potential selling pressure, the scenario for derivative exchanges is more complex.
For derivative products, an increase in inflows may not signal a clear market trend but instead could indicate a potential for upcoming volatility, as the funds could be used to open both long and short positions.
Therefore, decreasing inflows may suggest an increasing confidence among holders in keeping their assets away from exchanges, implying a potential reduction in supply in the short term.
According to the Crypto Wealth Report by Henley & Partners, as of mid-2025, there are 241,700 crypto millionaires, an increase of 40% compared to the same period last year.
The total crypto market capitalization has surpassed $3.3 trillion, leading to a significant increase in the number of ultra-wealthy individuals. The report shows that the number of centimillionaires holding over $100 million reached 450, up 38%, while the number of crypto billionaires increased by 29% to 36.
The majority of the reason comes from Bitcoin. In just one year, this number has grown by 70% to 145,100 individuals, as BTC outperformed the broader market during the period from July 2024 to June 2025.
The number of Bitcoin centimillionaires also rose by 63% to 254, while the number of Bitcoin billionaires increased by 55% to 17. According to Phillipp Baumann (founder of Z22 Technologies), Bitcoin is gradually becoming a basis for wealth accumulation, rather than just being seen as a speculative channel.
The inflow of money from whales into Binance is the second largest in a month 🐳
Bitcoin and Ethereum have experienced a sharp decline in the past two days. These fluctuations often coincide with the activities of whales on exchanges. Whales still have a significant impact on the market and often use Binance as their primary exchange.
Therefore, tracking the inflow of money from whales into Binance is quite noteworthy. On September 22, the inflow of money from whales into Binance reached 120 million dollars during the sell-off, followed by an additional 52 million dollars early on September 23 (around 05:00).
These transfers indicate that whales continue to move a large amount of Bitcoin into Binance, which may be executed on the market.
This is the second largest inflow into Binance in the past month, around the recent high of 116,000 dollars. How long can this sell-off last?
Cryptocurrency is witnessing a shift in focus. According to Chainalysis, by 2025, transaction volumes in APAC will increase by +69% year-on-year, from $1.4 trillion to $2.36 trillion – becoming the largest growth driver globally. Meanwhile, Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa are experiencing moderate growth, while Europe and MENA are declining.
On-chain data from CryptoQuant supports this trend. The Korean Premium index remains consistently positive, indicating that BTC in South Korea is trading higher than the global average. This is evidence of strong retail demand and speculative sentiment in Asian markets.
Additionally, the trading reserve ratio (U.S. vs. international) also leans towards foreign exchanges like Binance and OKX, while Coinbase is gradually losing its advantage. Liquidity is increasingly shifting towards the East.
In summary, the United States remains a center for institutional credibility, but growth, capital flows, and innovation are booming in APAC. The next super cycle will likely be shaped more by Seoul, Singapore, and emerging markets in Asia.