币守望先锋

#BTC

This wave initially bounced along the channel, testing the key level of 78200 USD, but couldn't hold it, and then got slammed down. It's clear now that the price has broken below the channel, but there are still plenty of bulls bottom-fishing down here, which usually isn't a great sign.

In the short term, we need to hold the 77500 USD level to have a shot at pushing into the liquidity zone above 79000 USD. Otherwise, it’s just a weak bounce.

Also, I’ve noticed a classic sentiment point: a lot of folks are waiting for 80000 USD to take profits or exit, and this kind of consensus expectation can be a red flag.

Looking at the longer timeframe, the real key level is still around 70500 USD, which I've mentioned before; we definitely need to keep a close eye on this.

#BTC #ETH

Maintained the framework for three months

For the last month, we've been inching up along the channel

It's that classic technical setup

But last night's bearish candlestick basically signaled the failure of the upward channel; the resistance around 80k is heavier than I expected

They were talking about squeezing the shorts

But in reality, the bulls are struggling, and the bears aren't faring much better

With a nearly month-long negative funding rate, the shorts are holding strong

Since the bulls are starting to fade, let's just wait and see when the bears really kick into gear

#ORDI This pump, to put it simply, is just a trial and a washout for liquidity.

For holding ORDI, just keep an eye on these signals:

1. The whales are still in the game.

2. Retail sentiment hasn't kicked in yet.

3. The whales don't have enough chips yet.

4. Whether ORDI pumps or not isn't really tied to the inscriptions sector; it's essentially just a meme that got listed on Binance.

In summary: This coin is tradable, but don’t rush in.

In the short term, it’s unlikely to go on a straight moonshot; this is something you need to remember.

New week, #BTC is really lagging behind, these altcoins are just not cutting it... Spent the whole morning checking the secondary market, but I can't pull the trigger. A lot of coins are looking decent on the weekly charts, but there's just no volume, all pumped up by Bitcoin without any real momentum.

So how to play the secondary market right now? I'm still opting for a cash position and watching from the sidelines. The best move is to wait for a coin to start showing volume, and when the whales start to light it up, then jump in. No need to rush and set traps; you can always chase it once it starts moving.

The toughest part now is: when others are pumping, yours isn’t. But this isn’t a straightforward bull market rotation logic; just holding doesn’t guarantee you’ll be in the mix. In this environment, trading strategies need to shift—stop actively hunting for opportunities and wait for them to present themselves.

What the market is lacking right now is confidence; after the #RAVE wave, the mood has cooled down again, and we need a new 'RAVE' to reignite the spark. Once a new leader emerges, there will definitely be a wave of follow-up buying, but we also need to be wary of those just riding the coattails and fishing in muddy waters; don’t dive in all at once.

I've been feeling a bit lost lately, honestly not sure what to trade anymore.

#sol is all about high leverage plays or schemes; you can tell just by looking at the candlestick charts. If you don't jump in, they'll keep pumping, but as soon as you do, they'll just wreck you.

#BSC : The second saint isn't giving any opportunities; their setups can't even get off the ground. It feels like the BSC market is totally dead, the competition's too fierce.

#ETH : Because of the Space Dog situation, all the hot cash has been flowing this way, making it feel like BSC is super quiet, like there's hardly anyone around. Without any front-runner to lead the charge, retail traders aren't going to step in and drive prices up.

Right now, the most comfortable play is ETH. Aside from the gas fees being a bit high and the speed being a little slow, everything else is in a comfy zone.

I've been trading for about 3 days, turning 0.5 ETH into 3 ETH, and that's with me not really keeping a close eye on the charts—almost every day there's a little pump on the ETH chain.

As long as you do your research and buy into early-stage tokens, just chill and wait for them to bloom. Typically, it's a 5x start.

Learn to spot where the hot cash is, where the fish are, and then go fishing.

Looking forward to an epic, sky-high golden dog to change the game.

#LAB might be worth a small position for a long. Looking at pure naked candlesticks, the trend of this coin is really smooth, with a clean and tidy structure. The K-lines move in a nice rhythm, and the volume-price relationship feels quite natural, without that sluggish vibe.

Now, even though we've broken previous highs and made new ones, the overall rhythm is still relatively gentle, building up strength. We're not yet in that acceleration phase, meaning there's still room to run above. The short-term probability of continuing to push upwards is quite high.

From a technical standpoint, as long as we can confirm the new high with increased volume, this surge to 1 shouldn't be a problem. Those looking to participate can consider trying a small position around 0.8 for a long.

#SPK

Regret, how can there be no regret?

That day my position was fully in, I wanted to chase some Alpha, then wanted to shift my position, and then there was no turning back.

Since I sold, I'm not looking back, even though the data looks really good.

But in the end, it's still regret.

A quick take on the top 50 cryptocurrencies by market cap

BTC: The hardest consensus in crypto, still has a chance to flip 5-10x in the next bull run.

ETH: The king of public chains, can't go wrong, but its size means its moves are a bit slow.

XRP: The go-to coin for institutional transfers, most retail traders just don’t get it.

BNB: The top exchange token, but the golden age of CEXs is basically over.

SOL: US-based public chain representative, can make good gains if you time the bull and bear markets right.

TRX: Strongly controlled by a few whales, but the founder's reputation is questionable.

DOGE: The original MEME coin, successfully broke into the mainstream.

HYPE: The leading DEX, has some potential; a 10x in the next bull run is not an exaggeration.

LEO: Popular among Western traders, barely recognized in the Chinese community.

ADA: Half-dead, buying it is worse than just looking at XRP.

BCH: A once-popular coin that's been marginalized, now it seems someone is picking it up for some revival.

LINK: The leading oracle, stable but lacking surprises.

XMR: Strong value proposition, but unfortunately, it’s being suppressed by regulations.

CC: Has a bit of a dark horse vibe, worth keeping an eye on.

XLM: The little buddy of XRP, has always been low-key.

ZEC: One of the leaders in privacy coins, still worth a glance in the next bull run.

M: Waiting for the day it suddenly collapses.

LTC: An old-school player, but clearly out of sync with the times.

AVAX: The project team seems to be slacking off.

HBAR: Slightly bearish, but there are some players behind the scenes controlling it.

SUI: Got wrecked by a hacker incident, now a bit lost.

SHIB: A product of its time, now more about nostalgia.

TON: If it can tap into the TG traffic bonus, it has some future potential.

TAO: A core player in the AI sector, still bullish long-term.

WLFI: Internal conflicts are serious, better to steer clear.

MNT: A platform coin that's been marginalized by the market.

DOT: Basically lying flat, just waiting to hit zero.

UNI: Weak price but still seeing on-chain growth; can expect something in the next bull run.

RAVE: Looks like it has run its lifecycle.

SKY: Has some value, but without strong whales to push it, it struggles.

NEAR: Trying to pivot to an AI public chain, but it’s not an easy path.

AAVE: Short-term pressure from public opinion, but the long-term logic is still intact.

ASTER: Might as well just look at HYPE.

PEPE: Feels unlikely to take off again in the next bull run.

ICP: Project-level hype is high, but the market isn’t buying it.

ETC: Once Ethereum, now just a nostalgic piece of junk.

ONDO: The project is solid, but the coin price isn’t reflecting that right now.

DEXE: Clearly controlled by whales, high short-term risk.

ENA: A liquidity master, skyrockets in a bull market and hits zero in a bear market.

POL: After the name change, it lost all momentum and is basically forgotten by the market.

#RAVE

If the price can complete the yellow segment of this trend, then I would think that RAVE is forming a standard cup and handle pattern. The target is initially set at the end of the arrow.
Of course, the premise is crucial:

👉 The yellow segment must be completed

Personally, I lean towards it being completed, but if it goes wrong midway, then don't hesitate, directly overturn the original plan and reassess the trend.

#RAVE Last night, I directly rushed to the bullish list of valuescan, with fomo + alpha tags. At that time, the price was around 0.6, and today it directly shot up to 1.9, a solid 3 times increase. It is said that Bitget has also closed the deposit, in such a market, going long is truly appealing! 😀

To be honest, when looking for long opportunities, the hints from valuescan are indeed quite valuable for reference.

For example, the recent DEXE, which went from 0.7 all the way up to 1.5, had a very clear rhythm.

Also, that #币安人生 which has been on the bullish list for a week, every time it slightly retraced, it was quickly pushed back up, clearly indicating that there is capital controlling the market.

I have been keeping an eye on it this week and found that although it cannot capture all opportunities, as long as it's a target that can appear on the bullish list, with a bit of personal filtering and judgment, it is basically possible to find good long opportunities.

#ORDI The trading volume has skyrocketed by 5.6 times directly. Is this a breakthrough, or is it already running out of steam? The 15-minute chart signals that——under this wave of abnormal volume, the overall indicators are biased towards bullish, and in the short term, it is more inclined to continue moving upward 📈

This wave of increase can basically be understood as "smart money" accumulating in advance. Focus on a range: 4.208 - 4.314. If the price retraces to this level and can stabilize or even rebound strongly, that would basically be a high-probability bullish opportunity.

——Reference strategy: If the price falls back to the 4.208 - 4.314 range, and a bullish engulfing pattern or a hammer candle appears on the 15-minute level, or if the 5-minute structure starts to strengthen, consider entering long.

Take profit can be viewed in three stages:

First target: 4.460

Second target: 4.740

Third target: 5.422

However, the risk points must also be made clear——if the price falls below 4.05 and closes below, then this bullish logic will be invalidated, and it is recommended to withdraw first and wait for new signals.

There is also a situation that needs to be particularly cautious: if the price directly rushes above 4.740 and then quickly drops, this is likely the main force unloading, and the short-term easily reverses, so don’t get carried away.

Final key point: Don’t chase big bullish candles, definitely wait for a pullback + confirmation, otherwise, it’s easy to buy at a local high.

#BTC

To be honest, I personally do not buy into this fractal much. I lean more towards a situation where, once the price returns to the range, there might be a stronger decline.

However, this structure is still worth keeping an eye on. The price is still above the range, and before it actually drops back, the risk of going short directly is actually quite high.

To put it bluntly, this is just a reference pattern, so don't take it too seriously.

Recently, the imitation market here has obviously started to heat up a bit. Yesterday, #ORDI and #SATS were already moving. This kind of momentum in the sector indicates that there will likely be follow-up actions.

If you still don't know what to buy, the idea is actually quite simple—focus on the leading stocks in the sector first. Yesterday's increase has already shown the problem; the big brother is still the big brother, and ORDI is directly leading the way.

In every round of the imitation market, the MEME sector is basically always at the forefront, so for this round, the leader is still #PEPE , with the highest priority. The position of 0.0000039 can be considered for gradual entry.

Another point is the DeFi line, where the leader UNI has also exploded fiercely, and now the price has already dropped back to where it just launched, basically belonging to the kind of drop that can't fall any further, with relatively lower risk. Around 3.37 can be considered for gradual accumulation.

As for the second tier, stocks like FLOKI and PEOPLE are also worth watching, but certainly, their priority is not as high as PEPE.

In summary: prioritize the leaders.

The whale of #RAVE has started to increase its long positions again, with long positions already above 25 million dollars, while short positions are only about 6.6 million dollars, and the flow of funds is clearly slowing down.

This structure can easily push the price up again, and once momentum picks up again, returning to the 18-20 dollar range is entirely possible.

#RAVE

The long-short ratio of whales is clearly narrowing—previously, the bulls were about 50 million, compared to only a few million in shorts; now it has become roughly 19 million bulls vs 8 million shorts. What does this mean? It's simple: a portion of the bulls has already started to withdraw.

But at the same time, the funds are still tight, which indicates one thing—new shorts are continuously entering the market.

So this position is quite awkward:

Should you go long? It’s already a bit late, and the risk is high.

Should you go short? It's also not safe, as there could be another wave of short squeezing at any time.

The price is likely to retrace later, which is not much of a suspense, but the problem is—that rushing to short at this position is not a wise choice.

A better strategy is: wait for a clearer retracement structure to emerge before considering the next step.

#BTC

The Coinbase Premium Index has continuously been green on higher time frames, indicating that market sentiment is indeed quite bullish. However, this is not really a suitable time to chase higher prices.

No matter how you interpret this indicator, historically, whenever it turns green, it generally corresponds to a local high.

#BTC

The CME gap of 73K has been filled, and now we will see how the price behaves at this position. If it remains pressed below CME, there is a high probability it will test 69K again.

However, if this gap position can hold and turn into support, then there is still a chance to touch 74-75K, or even the external range high.

To be honest, this kind of move where it directly rushes to fill the gap at the start of a new week, I generally do not view it as bullish, but more like a "trap for buyers" or a liquidity sweep before a reversal.

There is no need to rush now; the key is to monitor the reaction at this position. If the price starts to "struggle to hold" here, then it may be time to consider looking for a short position.

#BTC

Previously, I analyzed BTC in two trends: the red line — there is still a chance to reach a high above 76000; the blue line — the rise from 65000 is just a rebound and cannot surpass 76000. Both scenarios actually share a common point: once this rebound from 60,000 ends, the price will continue to decline. The current question is, has the rebound from 60,000 ended?

This week's trend has heightened the suspense. If BTC can directly break through the angle formed by the two Gann lines in the chart (marked in red) today, and if by 8 AM tomorrow both the daily and weekly candles can close above this position, it can basically be determined that it will attempt to reach a high above 76000 again. Conversely, if it fails to rise above, it is highly probable that it will follow the blue line — the segment up to 65000 is just a rebound and could end at any time.

In terms of operations, the broader direction has been discussed extensively before, so I won't repeat it here. Instead, I'll focus on the short-term strategies that everyone is more concerned about. Recently, I will consider making some short-wave trades: if it breaks through the angle and then retests without breaking, I will go long; if there is clear resistance here and it forms an upper shadow, I will go short. The stop-loss will be uniformly set at the low point of the hourly candle, and let's start playing at this rhythm.

I have been using the current #BTC volatility range to compare with previous cycles and found a pattern that seems to align almost every time — specifically, the distribution period from Q1 2022.

On the left is Q1 2022, when the price fluctuated for a full 103 days, sweeping through the liquidity on both sides before truly starting to decline. On the right is now, Q1 2026, and the structure is quite similar, but it has only lasted 62 days so far.

That period back then is essentially a replica of what we have now: the price is being pulled back and forth at both ends of the range, continuously washing out traders and gradually consuming liquidity. The key has never been about how many new highs were broken, but rather — how long this range has been tested and whether it can truly hold above the key position before losing support.

So now I am focusing on the details of this range to see if it will continue to replicate the movements from back then.

If similar signals start to appear — false breaks, consistently lower highs — then it can basically be regarded as a repeat of Q1 2022. The longer the volatility lasts, the sharper the subsequent decline may be.

However, if BTC can really break through the range and hold steady this time, then this range will not be a distribution but rather turn into a launching pad for the next upward wave.

This will also be the biggest difference between this cycle and the previous ones.

#BTC Currently, the price of Bitcoin is blocked around 71.4K.

The market is quite volatile now, with long-term liquidity being continuously swept away, and leverage being harvested back and forth. This situation is actually quite common in bear market fluctuations.

The key is still to look at the daily and weekly charts; these two levels can provide a clearer view of the overall structure.

If the price cannot stabilize above 71.4K (which is the previous range high), then it is highly likely that it will fall back down, possibly even below 68K. In this case, Monday's surge looks more like a "lower high," and it is highly likely to continue moving down.

However, if Bitcoin can rebound and stabilize above 71.4K, then there is a chance to break through and push towards 72.8K.

So at this position, my advice is not to rush into shorting, but to wait until the structure becomes clearer before taking action.