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Using spot grid trading to bottom out BTC, the key isn't buying at the lowest point, but building a solid grid to let it run on its own.

With this round of BTC plummeting, panic selling is clearing out, and the bottom-fishing window for spot grids is opening up.

Here are some practical tips:

1. Set the range between support and resistance levels. Look at previous lows and areas of dense on-chain supply for support, while previous highs and moving average resistance for resistance. Lay out the grid between the two, leaving at least a 10% buffer on both sides for price to move back and forth to generate profit.

2. Tier your positions. Split your capital into 10-15 tiers, adjusting the spacing according to volatility. BTC typically fluctuates 3-5% daily, so setting intervals of 1-2% can easily get eaten up, making your efforts futile.

3. Choose the right entry timing. Don’t go all in on the first day of a crash. Wait for panic signals to clear — like continuous BTC outflows from exchanges, decreasing contract positions, and a greed index < 20.

4. Keep some firepower in reserve. Don’t go all in; at least keep 20-30% in reserve. If it really breaks below the lower edge, you can manually add positions to lower your average cost.

5. Mindset management. The biggest enemy of the grid isn’t misjudging direction, but being afraid of missing out and closing positions prematurely or panicking with unrealized losses. Set it up and try not to monitor it too frequently.

Deploy the grid in a crash, and reel it in during a rebound. The grid is for collecting chips, not for getting rich overnight.

Ice and Fire Island Options Notes | 2026.06.05

BTC spot at $63,400, this week it plummeted from $73K through $66K and $64K, a drop of over 13%. Triggering factors: Strategy's first public sell-off of BTC, Mt.Gox address activity, continuous massive net outflows from ETFs, compounded by a series of liquidations of leveraged longs, totaling $1.8B in three days. Market sentiment swung from one extreme to another; two weeks ago, everyone was calling for $100K, and now the discussion is whether we can hold $60K.

Deribit options are expiring today, Friday. Total open interest (OI) for Calls is 260,594, and for Puts, it's 159,435, with an OI Put-Call Ratio (PCR) of 0.612 indicating a neutral but slightly bearish sentiment. However, the trading volume in the last 24 hours tells a different story: Puts traded at $62M, Calls at $35M, with a Put/Call trading ratio soaring to 1.79—funds have been buying Puts for protection or to short the market. Among today's expiring contracts, the highest concentration of Put OI is at $65K and $68K (1,053 and 972 respectively), while the large Call OI at $72K-$80K is essentially set to zero.

Regarding implied volatility (IV) structure, today’s ATM IV is about 60%, with next Monday at 43% and next Friday at 45%, while monthly IV stands at 42-43%. Long-term IV for contracts expiring in over three months remains stable at 44-46%. This term structure does not show a significant panic premium—compared to the March drop to $65K when DVOL spiked to 75+, this time's IV reflects an “orderly decline” rather than a “stampede to exit.” However, it’s worth noting that today's expiry skew is heavily biased towards Puts (C 48% vs P 73%), indicating that Put market makers are still buying protection ahead of the close.

Assessment: After a 13% weekly drop, BTC shows signs of stabilizing in the $63K-$64K range, with Deribit’s long-term IV only increasing by 2-3 points, suggesting the options market does not see this as a trend reversal, but more like a natural bottom-seeking after deleveraging. The critical observation window is next week—if $62K breaks, the previous low of $59K will be in range; if it holds, the first target for a rebound is $68K (the gap from this week).

Strategy: 1) Put sellers should consider $58K-$60K Puts expiring on June 12, with IV currently at 44%, above historical averages, making the implied volatility premium suitable for collecting rent. 2) Those looking to play a rebound shouldn’t buy Calls—after being pumped on down days, IV tends to drop quickly during rebounds, and Calls face pressure from both sides: the underlying may rise, but if IV falls, the price might not budge. Consider selling a strangle (short $62K Put + short $72K Call) to profit from time decay. 3) Spot holders can use Covered Calls to reduce their holding costs; the Call IV for $70K at the end of June is still at 44%, potentially adding around 6-8% on an annualized basis.

In terms of relative strength, the ETH/BTC ratio hovers around 0.031, with ETH experiencing a drop comparable to BTC, showing no signs of fund rotation. The overall market is in a “survive first, then talk” phase.

Risk Warning: Weekend liquidity is thin, and any liquidation chain reaction or policy news could amplify volatility under low trading volumes. After today’s expiry, OI on Deribit will change, and the gamma distribution at Monday's open will be reshuffled; new resistance/support levels will need to be observed then. #BTC #期权 #Ice and Fire Island

Ice and Fire Island Options Notes | 2026.06.04 Update: ETH

ETH is currently hovering around 1,815, down 2.88% in the last 24 hours. The intraday low was 1,766.6 and the high was 1,890.45. The perpetual funding rate shows a positive rate of +0.00013%, with funding sentiment diverging from BTC (which has a negative rate).

For the Friday settlement contract ETH-5JUN26, open interest is at 90,573 contracts, with a mid price of 1,815.13, showing a discount close to par. The end of the month contract on 26JUN26 has an open interest of 99,380,000 contracts, with a mid price of 1,817.13. The September contract on 25SEP26 has an open interest of 61,420,000 contracts, with a mid price of 1,828.63, and the term structure shows a contango of about 13.5 points.

ETH's current drop of (-2.88%) is less severe than BTC's (-3.55%). The positive funding rate for ETH vs BTC's negative rate indicates a divergence in market forces. The settlement discount is also significantly smaller than BTC's, suggesting that sentiment around ETH is relatively stable. Moving forward, keep an eye on whether ETH can establish support around 1,800; if BTC rebounds, ETH usually shows greater elasticity.

#ETH #BTC #期权 #Ice and Fire Island

Ice and Fire Island Options Notes | 2026.06.04

BTC is under pressure, currently at the 64,180 level, down 3.55% in the last 24 hours. The intraday low was 63,966 and the high was 67,400, with a volatility of about 5.3%. The perpetual negative funding rate is -0.00067%, indicating a dominant short sentiment.

On Friday (June 5), the weekly settlement contract BTC-5JUN26 has an open interest of 29,700 contracts, with a settlement reference price of 67,100. The current index is 64,228, reflecting a discount of about 4.3%. Today's expiring BTC-4JUN26 has an open interest of only 4,189 contracts, with light trading activity. The focus is on the roll-over rhythm before Friday’s delivery.

This week’s order book: bid 64,177.5×1,660, ask 64,182.5×500, with only a $5 spread. Buy orders are densely placed in the 63,155-64,155 range, while sell orders are pressing in the 64,185-64,245 range. For the following week, 12JUN26 mid is 64,216, with open interest of 19,023 contracts gradually taking over. By the end of the month, 26JUN26 mid is 64,276, with 600 million contracts being the largest, and the monthly spread is about 96 points.

This week’s ATM implied volatility is about 59-63%, significantly higher than September contracts at 40%. The end-of-month put IV has surged—69500-P IV at 63.69%, and 70000-P IV at 70.21%. The end-of-month put premium is severely elevated, reflecting strong short-term hedging demand.

Judgment: 1) Although BTC rebounded after breaking below 64k, the perpetual negative funding rate and high IV suggest doubts about the strength of the rebound, with selling pressure still significant ahead of the settlement; 2) The double short this week faces extreme gamma risk, with end-of-month put IV > 70% being very unfavorable for sellers; 3) Conversely, the 4.3% settlement discount has already priced in a certain level of pessimism, and if spot holds above 64k, the weekly call IV may have room to pull back.

Strategy reference: For a bullish direction, wait for confirmation of holding above 65k, then sell 66/68k call spreads to capture a pullback in IV ahead of the 22nd delivery contract. For a bearish direction, the PUT IV is already expensive, so buying is not recommended; consider a bear put spread to lock in costs. The neutral direction has a relatively reasonable IV by the end of the month, but with the current unclear direction, it’s advisable to maintain light positions and wait.

With the delivery week combined with a downtrend, gamma/vega exposure is high; without a clear direction, holding cash is a safer bet.

#BTC #期权 #Ice and Fire Island

🦐 Ice Fire Island Options Notes | 2026-06-03

BTC 66,631, Asia session sees a slight rebound of +0.4%, but overall remains in the downtrend channel since late May. 67k has flipped from support to resistance.

Deribit market PCR at 0.83, a significant drop from the extreme value of 2.84 on 5/29, indicating a reduction in panic sentiment. ATM IV at 55.2%, 99th percentile—volatility is nearing historical highs, and the cost for end-of-day buyers has risen sharply. Open interest for 66000-P continues to build up, shifting the focus of the bulls and bears.

When IV is high (above 55%), chasing puts offers poor value; even if you get the direction right, Vega will eat into most of your profits. A more reasonable approach is to wait for IV to dip below 45%, or for BTC to rebound to 67k-68k while simultaneously reducing volatility before entering.

BTC is underperforming compared to ETH (ETH/BTC 0.0475). If BTC can stabilize above 66k, it may trigger a short covering rally, with a short-term target of 68k. Altcoin season appears bleak in the near term.

The peak of IV after consecutive declines is a double-edged sword—if your directional judgment is correct, you could still end up losing money, so be cautious about opening new positions at expiry.

codex adds SMS two-factor authentication
This is the most frustrating news today
The big AI firms in the US are really lacking vision
Looks like the East-West AI battle has someone sweating, haha
If codex isn't usable, deepseek can still do the trick
Hope they loosen up on this later

BTC & ETH Q3Q4 2026 Trend Research Report.

# Ice and Fire Island Options Notes | 2026-06-02

BTC $70,760 ETH $1,990. BTC dropped from Sunday’s 73,648 to around 70K, a total decline of about 4%, while ETH only pulled back 0.7%, showing relative strength.

BTC 5JUN26 ATM IV at 38.4%, up from 32-34% just 22 hours ago, gaining about 5 vol points. A 4% drop only brought this slight IV fluctuation, indicating no panic in the market. The 70,000P has an OI of 3,045 contracts, making it the largest single leg position this week, with put IV at 39.9%, nearly equal to ATM—protection is cheap. But cheap doesn’t mean stable: if spot drops another 1%, we hit this wall, and a Gamma flip could instantly spike IV to 45+.

ETH 5JUN26 PCR is 1.02, with a single leg 2,000P at 28,302 contracts, accounting for 24% of the OI for that expiry. IV at 43.1%, with virtually zero premium—this is a position accumulation zone built by big players, not panic buying. Above, 2,100C-2,200C each has 8,700-10,300 contracts OI, the opposing structure is clearer than BTC.

In terms of term structure, BTC 12JUN~25SEP IV all sits between 37-38%, with a flat curve that’s unusual. ETH is steadily sloping up from 44% to 52%. The flat front end for BTC means no expectations priced in for the near term—if prices stay still before Friday’s expiry, IV will shrink further.

In short: BTC is waiting for Gamma at the 70K wall, while ETH is positioned at 2,000 in a standoff. Both are not expensive, but their narratives are completely different.

Not investment advice, just a record of market structure.

Ice and Fire Island Options Notes | 2026.06.01

BTC 73,648 ETH 2,004. Since the $7.5B monthly expiration on 5/29, the market has been in a low-level consolidation.

BTC 12JUN26 ATM IV 32-34%, HV 29.6%, implied volatility is pricey but limited. PCR 0.53, Call OI concentrated in the 80000-86000 out-of-the-money range (over 3,000 contracts), market makers' hedging continues to create upward pressure. GEX spine sits between 73000-74000, with 672 contracts of OI on the 70000P providing mid-term support.

ETH ATM IV 44%, which is 10 volatility points richer than BTC. Three Put clusters at 2100/2000/1900 each have 1,500-2,800 contracts of OI, and the battle at 2000 is not over yet. The BTC>ETH dynamic remains unchanged, with the price ratio hitting a new low at 0.0272.

In short: BTC is weakly consolidating below 75K, with negative Gamma making a quick rebound unfavorable. ETH's IV premium has fully priced in the weakness, leaving limited downside but requiring a catalyst for upward movement.

This is not investment advice; just a record of market structure.

Is there arbitrage potential between Binance's spot and futures? Let's chat.

Double Short Strategy: Why Newbies Shouldn't Touch It

Doing a double short (Short Straddle/Strangle) looks appealing—collecting premiums on both sides, time is on your side.

But the truth is, the Short Straddle is the fastest way I’ve seen retail traders lose money. No exceptions.

Let’s run a thought experiment with today's data.

BTC is currently at 73,952. Sell the 26JUN26 ATM Straddle (74000C+74000P) and collect about 5,349 in premiums. Breakeven points: 68,383 to 79,081.

In the next 26 days, BTC can't move more than ±7.3%, otherwise, you start losing. Beyond that, every dollar is a full payout.

Is 7.3% a lot? BTC dropped 15% in a single day in 2025. On May 19 this year, it fell 8% in 24 hours.

When a black swan comes, the gamma can get so high that you can't hedge it—hedging just increases losses, and no hedging means you get wrecked. That’s a zeroed account, not a volatility return.

Margin of $40,000-$50,000, collecting 5,349 in premiums, tying up capital that's 8-10 times that amount. Limited gains, unlimited losses.

Institutions have alpha in double shorts due to real-time delta hedging + tail risk protection + market maker cost advantages. What do retail traders have? A gut feeling that BTC won't move much.

Newbies should steer clear of double shorts. Start on the buy side, at most you'll lose the premium, no liquidation. Wait until you’ve seen enough of how IV fluctuates and how gamma can turn on you before diving in.

This is not investment advice, just a strategy discussion.

Ice and Fire Island Options Notes | 2026-05-31

BTC $73,819 ETH $2,022. After the Friday May expiration settled, the weekend market structure began to solidify.

Funds have shifted to the weekly 5JUN26 and the monthly 26JUN26. The standout here is ETH: the total OI for 5JUN26 is 108,000 contracts, six times that of BTC in the same period. The 2000P single leg has piled up 28,390 contracts, accounting for 26% of the OI for that expiry date, with a PCR of 1.08, and only 5 days left until expiration. Spot at 2,022, the 2000P is at the edge of ATM, and Gamma pressure is increasing daily.

ETH ATM IV is 41%, which is 10 percentage points higher than BTC's same month at 31%. This IV premium is structural, not FOMO.

BTC's total OI for 5JUN26 is only 18,500 contracts, with a PCR of 0.75. The main battleground is at the 26JUN26 monthly expiry, with 127,000 OI, featuring a double peak standoff between 80,000C / 60,000P.

Mid-term structure shows BTC IV at 32→33% and ETH IV at 44→45%, with an over 10% IV difference remaining stable across the entire expiry curve.

In a nutshell: The ETH 2000 defense is the clearest Gamma point this week, while BTC is still waiting for direction.

Not investment advice, just documenting market structure.

Positive gamma and positive theta strategies in a volatile market.
Trading volatility ultimately aims for HV or IV; the positive gamma strategy uses shorting IV to support going long on RV. Let's make those wild swings even wilder! 🤓

https://wepoets1107.github.io/sci50-grid-backtest/
I backtested my Sci-Tech 50 grid momentum strategy, and it performed quite well. Unfortunately, I can't convert it into QMT code, so I'll have to trade manually...

Ice and Fire Island Options Notes | 2026-05-30

📌 Today's Core: The May monthly expiry just passed, with spot BTC at 73500/ETH 2015 wrapping up smoothly. After expiry, the market enters a new cycle window period—today, being Saturday, only the 30MAY26 end-of-day and 31MAY26 Sunday contracts have a small amount of OI changing hands, with real liquidity and pricing anchors found in the 5JUN26 weekly and 26JUN26 monthly options.

Key Data:
• BTC 73.5k ATM 5JUN26 IV=30.5%, 26JUN26 IV=33.6% → the term structure is flat, with no panic premium at the front end
• BTC 30d HV=32%, spot IV is trading at a discount of about 2-3 points relative to HV; vol isn't cheap but not too pricey either
• 5JUN26 74000-P OI 413 vs 74000-C OI 769, the Call side OI is significantly biased towards the upside, indicating a bullish market sentiment
• ETH 26JUN26 monthly options OI reaches 800,000 contracts, PCR_OI=0.50, with a decisive advantage for Calls

One-line Judgment:
After the May expiry, the market is calm, BTC's term structure is flat, vol is mid-range, with no clear overpriced/underpriced signals. A new cycle is being rebuilt, and it's worth watching for changes in directional skew.

Today's Strategy:
1. The 5JUN26 weekly options with 30%+ IV lack appeal for shorting, but if BTC retraces to the 72-73k area, a short put is a reasonable choice.
2. The 26JUN26 monthly options 70000-C OI 3492 is the largest concentration of open interest, showing market confidence in maintaining above 70k next month. The 7400-7600 range skews towards Calls, indicating bullish sentiment but with restraint.
3. ETH monthly options PCR_OI=0.50 is extremely Call-biased, contrasting with BTC—ETH's Call side heavy positioning may be a pre-price adjustment for rotation funds + upgrade expectations. Pay attention to the rhythm of Ethereum-related catalysts.

⚠ Weekend liquidity is thin, Deribit has wide spreads, and actual trades should be mindful of slippage. We'll reassess direction next Monday and Tuesday.

Ice and Fire Island Options Notes｜5/29

BTC $73,816 ETH $2,019, tomorrow marks the monthly/quarterly expiry, and the delivery game has already kicked off.

BTC 5JUN26 PCR is just 0.38, with Call OI concentrating in the upper range of 80,000-88,000. There's quite a bit of capital buying Calls, betting on a breakout, but the ATM IV is only 33%, so volatility pricing isn't too high. It's worth noting that the June 26 options OI has reached 126,000 contracts, the highest across all months, indicating that major players are already positioning themselves for a monthly level play.

ETH is even more interesting. The 5JUN26 2000P has a whopping 27,084 contracts piled up, pushing the PCR up to 1.23, as the market is frantically buying puts for protection. However, with spot sitting at 2019, the 2000P is only slightly in the money; if ETH makes even a minor move up before expiry, this batch of puts may be forced to roll or stop-loss.

In short: The BTC options market is betting on direction with low volatility, while the ETH options market is using high OI for defense. Whichever side breaks first, the other side's Gamma will follow.

Not investment advice, just recording market structure.

Today's signals are pretty spot on, but I'm not feeling great.
Spot losses are the biggest hit.
The options protection can’t cover everything.
Looking forward to a bull recovery.

Ice and Fire Island Options Notes | May 28

Viewpoint: BTC is experiencing historically low volume and low volatility this year, with sellers dominating; the cost-effectiveness for buyers is poor at this point.

BTC $74,492 (-1.9%), ETH $2,026 (-2.4%)

【Order Book】28MAY expiration, 74,500P daily volume of 504 contracts max; 29MAY 75,000P open interest of 4,887 contracts forming a Put wall, key trading range 74k-75k

【IV】BTC DVOL 37.15% (rebound of 1.3pts), HV 32.5%, IV premium at 4.7pts, slightly high; ETH DVOL 49.21%, 2100P open interest at 74,000 contracts, the largest in the market

【Strategies】① Sell Put vertical spread — 29-30MAY, sell 75,000P + buy 70,000P, collect net premium of about 0.002-0.003 BTC, betting on limited downside below 75k; ② Covered Call — BTC holders sell 30MAY 78,000-80,000C, annualized premium yield about 1-2%, leveraging IV premium; ③ Monitor ETH 2100P Put wall for order cancellations; if orders are removed, consider going long on ETH

【Strengths and Weaknesses】ETH is relatively weak (-2.4% vs -1.9%), the 2100P massive Put wall is a clear pressure

⚠️ Liquidity is poor on expiration day, spreads are wide; be cautious.

How to see IV highs and lows in real-time? Don’t rely on gut feelings, look at the data

Many newbie options traders just go with their instincts—buying calls when they think it's going up and puts when they think it's going down.

But the first lesson in options trading isn’t about direction; it’s: how expensive is the volatility you’re buying right now?

IV (Implied Volatility) is like the thermometer for options. High IV means options are pricey; low IV means they’re cheap. The question is, how do you judge the highs and lows?

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Step 1: Look at the relationship between IV and HV

HV is how much BTC has actually fluctuated in the past 30 days. IV is the market’s expectation of volatility for the next 30 days.

• IV > HV big gap → options are overpriced, the market is paying for insurance on things that haven’t happened yet
• IV ≈ HV → neutral pricing
• IV < HV → options are cheap, the market is underestimating volatility

Today’s data: BTC ATM IV at 45.8%, 30-day HV at 32.0%, a difference of 14 points— the market is willing to shell out nearly 50% premium for insurance against short-term downside risk.

Step 2: Check the term structure

High near-term IV and low far-term IV = short-term tension but calm in the medium to long term. Higher far-term IV = contango, bullish pricing. A steep curve = real panic.

Step 3: Use real-time tools

Deribit DVOL index, Laevitas, or backtrack using ATM option prices. Today, BTC DVOL is around 36 (low), but near-term ATM IV is 45.8%—the spread indicates that the market is paying for short-term risk, not total panic.

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Practical Principles

1. Check the IV percentile before buying options: above the 80th percentile for the last 30 days means you’re likely buying high
2. Confirm HV is weakening before selling options, but IV hasn’t dropped yet (the night before an IV crush)
3. Don’t just look at one number: the key is to understand what risk the market is paying for

Today BTC: PCR from 0.69 to 1.58, near-term puts increasing volume, far-term 50k-P heating up— the market is paying premiums for both short-term drops and extreme tail risks.

Before buying a call, ask yourself: are you willing to place your bet at this temperature?

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Follow Ice and Fire Island to see options through a trader’s eyes.

#期权 #BTC #隐含波动率 #IV #Deribit