On the Matter of My Dollar-Cost Averaging into FIL Starting at $0.88
1. That lawyer friend came back again, but this time I wasn't stumped. Last time we talked about the privacy track's Midnight, my lawyer friend pushed up his glasses again and pointed at the Filecoin price chart on my screen, saying: "This thing hasn't gone to zero yet?" I smiled and didn't say anything, just showed him my holding cost. $0.88. He was taken aback: "Isn't this the floor price? You actually dared to enter when the whole network is calling it 'a top-tier dead coin'?" That's right, this article doesn't play the victim nor does it make calls, it just wants to discuss: when a consensus drops to the ground, what exactly are we investing in with dollar-cost averaging?
"You in the crypto space shout transparency every day, but would I dare to put my client's divorce agreement, will, and business contract on the chain?" 😶
A couple of days ago, I had dinner with a lawyer friend, and he asked me a question that stumped me: "You in the crypto space shout transparency every day, but would I dare to put my client's divorce agreement, will, and business contract on the chain?" 😶 I couldn't answer at the time. Because what he said is true—**transparency is the biggest advantage of blockchain, but also its biggest flaw.** Midnight. Another privacy chain? Monero has been delisted by exchanges, and the founder of Tornado Cash has been arrested. Isn't this sector already cool? But after reading it carefully, I realized I had made a mistake— Midnight is fundamentally not the same species as previous privacy coins.
One token is used for speculation, and one token is used for utility—What exactly is the NIGHT dual-token model playing at?
Do you remember the nightmare of Ethereum in 2021? A simple transfer could cost tens or even hundreds of dollars in gas fees. It's not because the network is failing, but because ETH itself is both an asset and fuel—when the asset appreciates, the fuel naturally becomes more expensive. Users are 'punished' by the appreciation of the assets they hold. This logic is fundamentally twisted. Midnight's solution is to separate these two things: NIGHT: Governance token. Used for staking, voting, and capturing network value. Can be traded and has a market price. DUST: A token used to pay for gas fees, the fuel for network operation.
Today all mainstream coins are rising, but the Fear and Greed Index is still 23.
I increasingly feel that the greatest value of this index is not for making trading decisions, but for understanding human nature.
People who have been scared will instinctively retreat, even when opportunities are in front of them.
When the market hits the bottom in 2024, it will also be this index. Those who bought back then have made several times their investment now. But at that time, would you have dared to buy? Most likely not.
The way to overcome fear is not to force yourself to be brave, but to replace emotions with rules—dollar-cost averaging, grid trading, and planned orders.
Take the decision-making power away from the monkey brain.
Matching different types of crypto people with theme songs
Gambler type: "The Lonely Hero" Regular investment type: "Steady Happiness" Chasing highs and cutting losses type: "Anxiety" Buddhist holding type: "Ordinary Road" Came back after a liquidation: "The Secret That Cannot Be Told" Watching from the sidelines: "The Actor"
Which one are you? Comment below to identify yourself
After researching a project for three days, you feel that the logic is sound, the fundamentals are good, and the valuation is reasonable. You're ready to buy.
Then you open the group chat and see someone saying this project is trash.
You immediately hesitate.
Three days of research is overshadowed by a single group member's "trash."
This is the power of social noise.
Solution: After completing your research and before executing, turn off all group chats.
Your judgment is only yours when it's quiet. Once you open the group, it becomes someone else's.
Here's a controversial statement: for most people, their "investment portfolio" is actually just a "gambling record"
What's the difference?
Investment Portfolio: I allocated 40% BTC, 30% ETH, 20% blue-chip altcoins, and 10% cash. Each position has a clear buying rationale and stop-loss line.
Gambling Record: I chased this because it went up a bit, that KOL shouted for me to buy a bit, a friend recommended I put in a bit.
If you open your holdings and can't explain why you bought each coin or when to sell — then you are not investing, you are collecting lottery tickets.
Take an hour to organize your holdings. Sell those coins you can't justify.
I just looked around the square and noticed a phenomenon: the more the market fluctuates, the more "tutorial posts" appear.
Why is that?
Because when the market is good, everyone is busy trading coins and doesn't have time to write tutorials. When the market is bad, there's not much to talk about, so people start to "accumulate content".
This is exactly like the construction cycle in the crypto world—bull markets are for speculation, bear markets are for building.
So if you notice that tutorial posts have suddenly increased in the square, it might not be a good sign: it indicates that people have become so bored that they have started writing tutorials.
Conversely, if the square is full of signal posts and "get rich" posts, it indicates that the market is in a frenzy.
Bittensor and FET have appeared on the trend list. Is the AI narrative back again?
To be honest, I have always had a contradictory attitude towards AI coins.
On one hand, AI is indeed the biggest trend of this era. On the other hand, 99% of AI coins have nothing to do with AI—they just added the word "AI" to their names.
How to distinguish between real AI and fake AI?
One indicator is enough: if this project removes "AI" from its name, does it still have a reason to exist?
Have you noticed that BNB is the most boring mainstream coin? It never surges dramatically nor plummets. It doesn't make trending searches or trend lists.
But if you look at its annual line—it's as stable as a fixed deposit.
This is the logic of BNB: it doesn't rise based on narratives, but on Binance's profits. As long as Binance is still making money, BNB has a floor.
In an industry where everything could potentially go to zero, "not going to zero" itself is the biggest alpha.
The Pi Network is trending again. Every time I see Pi, I think of my third aunt.
Last year during the New Year, she pulled me aside and said: "Aren't you into this? Help me see when I can sell the Pi I've mined."
I took a glance at her phone, she had mined for three years, accumulating thousands of coins.
I didn't know how to tell her, "This might be worthless." Because for her, pressing that mining button every day was the closest she felt to "financial freedom."
The most impressive part of Pi is not the technology, but that it provided tens of millions of ordinary people with an entry point to participate in crypto without spending money.
As for whether this entry leads to a gold mine or just air, there is still no answer.
During this period, it has been a solo dance for BTC, while ETH has been like a slacker second fiddle, not rising or falling as expected. Everyone in the group is criticizing Vitalik, saying Ethereum is doomed.
But have you noticed a pattern? 🤔
Every time ETH is criticized the most, it often signals that it is about to move.
It's not mysticism; it's an emotional cycle.
When everyone loses patience with an asset, it means that those who needed to sell have finished selling. What remains are the die-hard holders, and they will not contribute to selling pressure anymore. At this point, just a little buying can push the price up.
Today BTC is 72500, ETH is 2177, SOL is 92. All three are rising, but the fear and greed index is still 23—extreme fear.
Prices are rising while emotions are fearful.
What does this division indicate? It indicates that most people haven’t jumped in yet. They are waiting for "confirmation."
But the market never provides confirmation. It only offers regret 😅
Of course, I’m not saying you should go all in right now. Just reminding you of a fact: the fear you feel now and the fear you will feel when BTC is at 16000 in 2024 are essentially the same thing.
The difference is, looking back at 16000, you will say, "Why didn’t I buy then?"
And today’s 72000 might just be the future "back then" 💡
Artificial Superintelligence Alliance (FET) Ranking #107 Made it to CoinGecko Trending List 🔥
Every time I see a coin suddenly trending, I ask myself three questions:
① Am I among the first to know, or among the last? ② Is this "trend" driven by real demand, or is it pure speculation? ③ If it drops by 50% tomorrow, can I accept it?
After answering these three questions, you won't chase 80% of the "trends" 😌 The money saved is money earned.
I called my mom, and she asked me if I was busy with work 📞
I said I was quite busy. Actually, I don't know how to explain "I'm researching a bunch of code and tokens".
The previous generation can't understand why we put money into something "invisible and intangible". But we also can't understand why they put all their savings in the bank to earn 2% interest.
Every generation thinks they are smarter than the previous one. But every generation also pays tuition in new ways 💸
Why do most people return all the money they made in a bull market during a bear market?
Because a bull market gives you not only profits but also a more dangerous thing: confidence.
You think you are great, but in reality, you are just a pig on the wind. When the wind stops, you still use the same position and the same strategy to operate. The result is predictable.
The most important thing to do after the bull market ends: cut half of your position, then reassess exactly how much you are worth 📏