K线人生飞哥

To introduce myself to my followers

Hello everyone, I am Feige. I entered the circle in 2017, and I consider myself an old player. Along the way, I have encountered countless pitfalls and have summarized some of my own methodologies. From initially blindly following trends to now focusing more on studying cycles, macro trends, and funding logic, I have gradually found my own rhythm.

Throughout this journey, I have realized that the crypto world is not just about rises and falls; it is more like a cyclical game: some are FOMOing during the highs, while others are quietly positioning during the lows.

I currently work as a blogger at Binance Square, sharing some personal thoughts and observations. I am not a guru; I am just an old player who has experienced several rounds of bull and bear markets. I hope to share the pitfalls I have encountered and the lessons I have learned, so that newcomers can avoid detours, and also gain new inspirations through communication.

If you also believe in cycles, believe in logic, and believe in long-term accumulation, then perhaps we can become fellow travelers here.

Regarding the viewpoints of my posts, please note the following points:

1: The crypto market is constantly changing, so my viewpoints will also change with the market. This industry changes too quickly; only by continuously following industry progress can we keep growing. Sticking rigidly to conventional wisdom will only lead to being eliminated by the times. I hope everyone can be more open-minded.

2: My viewpoints published in the square are divided into short-term and long-term. For example, even if the long-term outlook is bullish, there will still be pullbacks; and even if the long-term outlook is bearish, there will be rebounds. Don’t let short-term viewpoints affect your long-term perspectives. An upward trend does not mean it will only rise without looking back; more often, it is a trend of rises and falls. Similarly, a downward trend is not a continuous crash without rebounds; more often, it is a downward trend with fluctuations. I hope everyone can understand the differences between short-term and long-term viewpoints.

3: In this market, apart from BTC, which can be blindly trusted, other coins have market cycles, especially altcoins. Before buying a coin, you should at least investigate a bit; some things need to be understood to a certain extent. You can't just buy whatever others say. Especially if you have limited funds, you need to consider the actual situation and be more cautious.

Thank you to every friend who follows and supports me. You are my motivation to keep sharing, and I hope we can all reap our own rewards in the cycle.

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$币安人生 Even dog-stakes can’t hold up anymore; $BTC the situation of going short, and there is no coin that can move independently. At 0.78, publicly shorted on the plaza, held the position for about half a month—also a pretty good result. Trading isn’t that complicated: if you’re wrong, cut the loss; if you’re right, hold on. That’s all there is to it.

Bitcoin at $BTC 600000 will keep oscillating in this range and won’t easily and effectively break down.

As a reference to the 2018 bear market at the 6000 level: it churned for half a year. Each time it broke down, it would then slowly pull back. This created the illusion that 6000 was the bottom—until later, the computing-power showdown between $BCH and $BSV , plus a sudden black swan event, caused BTC to fall to 3150 before hitting the bottom.

For this bear cycle, for BTC to effectively drop below 60000, it would also require a sudden black swan event. Before such a black swan event happens, when Bitcoin drops below 60000, looking for opportunities and taking short-term long positions at lower levels can be a fairly good trade-off in terms of cost-effectiveness.

$BTC From the bigger-picture perspective, the market hasn’t truly hit bottom yet, and the monthly trend still has the potential to keep dipping. However, chasing shorts again below 60,000 offers a poor cost-performance ratio. The daily chart is more inclined toward a range-bound base-building pattern, with the market gradually searching for the real support zone.

Next, focus on the 57,500 area—this is the most critical support level right now. If the price pulls back again and tests that area, you may consider building long positions in batches, using the reference range of 57,500–56,400. If, after breaking below 58,000 during the session, the price quickly reclaims it, that also counts as a good “buy-the-dip” signal.

In the short term, as long as support remains effective, the rebound target is still first to look at 60,000; beyond that, watch the area around 63,000.

Bought a batch of worthless coins $MAGMA , and have already successfully taken profit. Last night’s strategy in the VIP community was simple: short from 0.72 to 0.75, with a final target of 0.5. Basically shorted near the high point. Congratulations to friends who followed the trade. Now, the community’s contracts are no longer limited to $BTC and $ETH —we’ll also look for opportunities in the altcoin market.

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$AAVE is still very hard (strong), and it’s also the only imitation coin I went long on in these past two days. For AAVE, besides institutional buy/signal, it’s also because it has dropped too much earlier. My view doesn’t change: this rebound target is 90～100. If $BTC can stop the decline, then AAVE can rebound to above 100.

Do you know who is the most pitiful? People in the crypto world who once made big money—hundreds of thousands or even tens of millions—then lost it all back. They went from having nothing to reaching the peak in an instant, earned money that ordinary people could never make in a lifetime of hard work, and then became poor again. They can no longer behave and go back to honest, no-nonsense jobs like they did when they had nothing. Whatever they try, they can’t stick with it. And in the crypto world, it’s also very hard to earn it back. That sense of helplessness is terrifying.

Rebound up and you short—doesn’t it make money seem easy? I think it’s not difficult at all. Yesterday and today, the strategies in the VIP community were very simple: short on the rebound. Today’s provided strategy: $BTC —rebound to 61500 and 61700, and short in batches; $ETH —rebound to 1630 and 1650, and short in batches. This evening there was a sharp drop. Congratulations to the friends who followed the trades—this round of short positions took a big profit.

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Let's talk about gold $XAU $XAUT $PAXG and my trading plan. My limit orders are set in the 3600-3700 range. If there's a sharp drop, we might see it hit that level, and when it does, expect a major rebound.

The consensus around Bitcoin at 60k is still pretty strong. Shorts are closing positions here, and longs are looking to scoop some up. However, if this bear market finds a floor at 60k, then the next round could really be a snooze fest. That 60k level doesn't attract the big players; firms like MicroStrategy are just buying without pumping the price. To put it bluntly, they're just holding the line around 60k to prevent a drop, but they can't push it up either. It’s just long periods of sideways action, giving off that vibe of trying to form a bottom. If the price doesn’t drop, other institutions won't step in, and the market will just keep oscillating like this, eventually turning the whole crypto space into a stagnant pool.

Personally, I think a price range of 40k to 50k would be a more suitable level in this bear market. If the bear is brutal enough to drop to around 30k, or even slightly below it, that would be ideal. This way, the next bull market could spark a massive blockchain revolution.

$M finally tanked, after all that fronting, it still crashed hard. I checked the market cap and it's still at 1 billion, which is insane. This coin should be valued below 100 million, it's just a garbage coin. Whoever bought in really got wrecked.

After Grayscale started calling shots on $AAVE , yesterday Standard Chartered also began to call out AAVE. Recently, AAVE perfectly passed the test under the $8.45 billion withdrawal pressure, and Aave V4 can reconstruct the on-chain securities financing market. The future narrative for AAVE is defi + rwa. Whether in the short term or long term, AAVE at this price is definitely undervalued. For short-term trends, take a look at how UNI performed when institutions started shouting about it; AAVE should easily rebound to around $90 to $100.

$BTC At this level, there are two scenarios: one is a continuation of the rebound, pushing up to 70K, and then a drop to around 50K in Q3. The other is a direct drop to around 50K. Anyway, my buy orders are still hanging there.

Right now, the situation is that Bitcoin's appeal is huge; I'd rather leave my funds in buy orders than consider any other opportunities. I can only say that the wind isn't blowing in BTC's favor at the moment. We need a shake-up to bring new opportunities to the crypto space; the bubble hasn't fully popped yet, and the new narrative hasn't emerged. There’s no incremental growth, only negative inflow, and all of this takes time. In two years, BTC will be back on track, and blockchain will once again be the future.

When it bounces up, it's time to short. If you can't beat 'em, join 'em, right?
$BTC shared a super simple strategy in the VIP community: when it rebounds to the 62900–63100 range, just short it. Tonight, a spike hit our short entry point perfectly, and it plummeted straight down to our second target for take profit. Is making money really that hard? Is the market that tricky? I think it's manageable, just keep adjusting your direction. If you can't beat 'em, just adapt and apply some flexibility.

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Let's make some predictions:
The final bottom of this bear market
$BTC 45000～50000
Around $ETH 800
In the $SOL 30～40 range
BNB around 400
For other major coins, buy the dip in spot when Bitcoin hits the bottom.

This year the crypto market has been rough, with a continuous six-month bear market. Many people have lost money and faced liquidation. When you're down and out, your conscience and good intentions tend to fade away. Of course, those types of folks might end up blaming themselves.
Especially for us in the crypto scene, we need to watch out for friends who are desperately trying to make a comeback.
It’s happened more than once; I've seen my once-kind friends switch to a predatory mode…
I don't want to go into details… Just a heads up to everyone to trade cautiously…

Currently, I’ve bagged a little profit with $HYPE . Looks like my gut feeling was spot on. I should set a cost basis stop-loss. As for take-profit, how much do you guys recommend I close out at???

The second in the same lane is $MRVL ; this token got pumped by Old Huang. It's got both hype and strength. If you're feeling that AVGO is too pricey, check out MRVL for some potential. The support level is around $240.

Trading Tips: Avoid Entering High Volume Altcoins

A lot of folks tend to focus on price fluctuations, but they overlook the significance of trading volume. Take altcoins as an example; if a coin’s daily trading volume exceeds 500 million USDT, I usually classify it as high volume. Of course, there’s no one-size-fits-all answer—some traders use 100 million, 200 million, or 300 million as benchmarks. The key is to analyze historical data.

Why avoid entering when the volume is extremely high? The larger the volume, the more intense the battle between bulls and bears, which results in amplified price swings. At first glance, it seems like there are plenty of opportunities, but in reality, it’s easy to get swept in and out, with stop losses often getting triggered right before the price moves back in the original direction.

I've personally taken hits like this. I once went long on an asset with a daily trading volume exceeding 1 billion USDT. While I had the right direction, the volatility was so extreme that I kept getting stopped out, ultimately missing out on real profits.

In contrast, I prefer trading in the 50 million to 100 million USDT range. At this level, liquidity is sufficient, depth is decent, and the volatility is manageable, making it easier to stick to my trading plan. Too low of a volume leads to liquidity issues, while too high can turn into a chaotic battleground of emotions and funds, which isn’t friendly for most traders.