Bull and Bear Tops and Bottoms from the Perspective of Market Cycle Theory
Bull and Bear Tops and Bottoms from the Perspective of Market Cycle Theory According to the classical Market Cycle Theory, the cryptocurrency market, like traditional financial assets, follows an emotionally driven four-phase cycle: Accumulation → Markup → Distribution → Markdown. This framework originates from behavioral finance and supply-demand dynamics, accurately explaining the causes of bull and bear market tops and bottoms. Bull Market Top: Buying Pressure Exhausted, Not Selling Crash Theoretical Basis: In the Distribution Phase, the collective FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) drives prices to peak. At this point, smart money has quietly distributed, but retail investors continue to chase higher prices. The top is not caused by active selling, but by marginal buying pressure exhausting - the demand curve stops shifting right, and prices lose upward momentum.
Teachers, still bullish? Hahaha, thanks for the liquidity~
阿远不是嘤嘤怪
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If you didn't know better, you'd think Bitcoin was at 1 million and Ethereum at 10k, huh?! A little pump, a little dump, and everyone’s losing their minds. Can't hold your horses for a second, and you think you’re gonna make some gains? 🫢
If you didn't know better, you'd think Bitcoin was at 1 million and Ethereum at 10k, huh?! A little pump, a little dump, and everyone’s losing their minds. Can't hold your horses for a second, and you think you’re gonna make some gains? 🫢
阿远不是嘤嘤怪
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Traders, there's really no need to spread panic, because whether the market pumps or dumps, you all are still bagholders.🫢
We still believe we are in a bear market; the market hasn't fully cleared yet.
Some friends say that with institutions entering the game, Bitcoin won't drop any lower. This viewpoint has some merit.
So, perhaps, the $60k mark could be the bottom, and prices might rise from here. Those who haven’t hopped on at these low levels might miss the boat forever. Will you feel the FOMO later? I won’t be buying unless the price gets cheap enough. If it skyrockets from here and my short positions get liquidated, I’ll just step back and play the stock market instead; it’s not like I’m married to Bitcoin. (In other words, if it stays high, I’ll consider Bitcoin a legacy asset, and we should seek out new, good, and cheap investments.) 🫢
I remember a saying that left a mark on me: "In times when no one cares and negativity is rampant, it’s the poor who have the chance to make a leap in wealth." An old miner told me this. It stuck with me; if it doesn’t drop, I won’t buy. If it rises, I’ll keep my cool and just watch the clouds roll by. 🚶→💃
Tonight, I was chatting with a few big players, and they think this surge is just a rebound. They're all offloading in batches, waiting to scoop back in at lower levels. Personally, I believe this bear market has rewarded long holders significantly; the volatility is there, and going long in spot trading carries no liquidation risk. A few of them have managed to swing trade their high-cost positions down to low or even zero cost, so all the extra coins they’ve gained are pure profit. Ah, it's still the big money that has the fun; a 1m🔪 spot position can be wiped out in a single wave — that's a lifetime for an average person. I should just wash up and hit the sack. 😂
It ain't dropping because the bears are loaded with fuel, not because they believe in the future market, alright? As soon as it pumps, it’s like, ‘Oh look, a bull run,’ are you kidding me? No brains at all. The heavy resistance zone above is just for show? The big players just dumped their bags, and now they’re pushing it up to help those guys get out, you really think that's realistic, bro?
Yesterday's market played out perfectly ✅ ETH/USDT long position 📍Entry: 2290 🎯Take profit: 2400 Locked in 110 points profit, kept the rhythm steady No guesswork in predictions, all levels hit, solid gains~
阿远不是嘤嘤怪
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A Yuan's Trading Share (Daily)
2026.4.21 Market Analysis (Daily) Variety/Cycle BTC-1h-4h Resistance Levels: 76000, 78300 Support Level: 74000 Risk Warning: For personal behavior record only, not responsible for investment behavior, profit and loss at your own risk.
2026.4.21 Market Analysis (Daily) Variety/Cycle ETH-1h-4h Resistance Level: 2390 Support Level: 2290 Risk Warning: For personal behavior record only, not responsible for investment behavior, profit and loss at your own risk.
2026.4.21 Market Analysis (Daily) Variety/Cycle SOL-1h-4h Resistance Level: 87 Support Level: 83 Risk Warning: For personal behavior record only, not responsible for investment behavior, profit and loss at your own risk.
2026.4.22 Market Analysis (Daily) Pair/Timeframe BTC-1h-4h Resistance Level: 78300 Support Level: 76000, 74000 Risk Warning: For personal record-keeping only, not responsible for investment actions, trade at your own risk.
2026.4.22 Market Analysis (Daily) Pair/Timeframe ETH-1h-4h Resistance Level: 2462 Support Level: 2390, 2290 Risk Warning: For personal record-keeping only, not responsible for investment actions, trade at your own risk.
2026.4.22 Market Analysis (Daily) Pair/Timeframe SOL-1h-4h Resistance Level: 91 Support Level: 87, 83 Risk Warning: For personal record-keeping only, not responsible for investment actions, trade at your own risk.
In the market, those technical analyses like TA, Elliott Waves, and price action—what's the holy grail that’s absolutely right? It’s just different strokes for different folks. In a major bearish market, I’m looking to short, but when there’s a small opportunity, I’m going long. Speculation and investment are two different games, no need to get worked up over it. But then you have those folks, like sycophants, spineless, always trying to pump when things are high and dump when they're low, just to please everyone. In the end, they end up with nothing. They talk a big game, but when it’s time to show their positions, they might not have any skin in the game.
2026.4.21 Market Analysis (Daily) Variety/Cycle BTC-1h-4h Resistance Levels: 76000, 78300 Support Level: 74000 Risk Warning: For personal behavior record only, not responsible for investment behavior, profit and loss at your own risk.
2026.4.21 Market Analysis (Daily) Variety/Cycle ETH-1h-4h Resistance Level: 2390 Support Level: 2290 Risk Warning: For personal behavior record only, not responsible for investment behavior, profit and loss at your own risk.
2026.4.21 Market Analysis (Daily) Variety/Cycle SOL-1h-4h Resistance Level: 87 Support Level: 83 Risk Warning: For personal behavior record only, not responsible for investment behavior, profit and loss at your own risk.