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2025.12.9 Market Analysis

The market has been struggling, with a decline of about 36% since October, officially entering a bear market back in October. Currently, we are only seeing a rebound during the downtrend.

From the weekly perspective, there is still some room for a rebound. On the daily chart, it is at a temporary bottom, fluctuating weakly around the range of 86000-94000. Remember, do not have a fixed mindset when trading. The 4-hour chart is confusing, with sharp rises and falls, repeatedly oscillating, which is typical of a choppy market.

Tomorrow night at 3 AM, there is a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, and at 3:30 PM, Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference. Be cautious as good news may turn into bad news; we may first see a drop before continuing to rebound!

In the current market, it's advised to focus solely on Bitcoin. If you can't make money from Bitcoin, there's no hope for altcoins. Other cryptocurrencies are only suitable for shorting at high levels!

2025.12.8 Macro Market Analysis

Good afternoon, brothers. A new week has begun.

How should we view the upcoming market? Let's analyze a few questions:
(1) How is the recent on-chain data?
BTC has been continuously flowing out of exchanges, and whales are accumulating. Yesterday, '1011 Insider Whale' increased their ETH long position to 54,277 coins. However, stablecoins have not been flowing into exchanges, indicating that the traditional crypto market is out of money and has lost everything, with current funds relying on traditional financial institutions.

(2) How reliable is the economic data?
Last week's ADP non-farm payroll data showed a decrease of 32,000 jobs, which is good news. However, less than 24 hours later, on Thursday night, the initial jobless claims data was released. What was the result? Only 191,000 people applied for unemployment benefits. This number is very low, at a historical low range. What does this mean? It means almost no one is being laid off, and the labor market is extremely hot.
One data point says hell, another says heaven.
On Wednesday, you thought you were going to the ICU, but on Thursday, the doctor tells you you're as strong as an ox. This caused some panic in the market on Friday, leading to a drop.

(3) Does our country's policy affect the cryptocurrency market?
Absolutely, it does. Major media outlets are criticizing the crypto space, and many people are scared and cutting losses to run away, so there will be some panic selling pressure domestically recently. The government is correct; the crypto space is a pit, and most of it is a scam. The hard-earned money of the common people is put in, and soon there's a liquidation from a contract, or they invest in a CX project, or play with a small exchange, or get hacked, or fall for phishing in Telegram chats, and quickly it all goes to zero.

(4) Current recommended operations
The probability of a decline is greater than that of an increase; recently, there has been panic, and there are also those who are not afraid of death and keep bottom-fishing. It is recommended to buy on the dip rather than on the rise, gradually accumulate BTC spot, and avoid buying other coins during a bear market. Sell when it rises by 10%, buy when it falls by 20%, referring specifically to BTC.
No more playing with CX coins, and don't give money to altcoin projects; most outcomes will end in losses. Honestly, hoard BTC, and keep some small funds on-chain for trading or day contracts.

This analysis is for reference only. Adults must take responsibility for their decisions. Investment carries risks; do not operate based on feelings, and remember to think independently and make judgments!

2025.12.7 Market Analysis

Technical Analysis: There's not much liquidity, basically sideways. The weekend market routine: the main force rests, fluctuations converge, and the rhythm is mainly a narrow range of oscillation. The real window will likely have significant fluctuations mostly on Sunday night, so let's wait until the evening! A pullback is also possible. It is recommended to remain flexible in operations and engage in 'range trading'.

Macroeconomic Analysis: The most important Federal Reserve FOMC meeting is coming up on December 9-10-11, with a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, 'positive news realization'.

Although the result is already clear, the real market game has just begun. The market currently generally expects a 25 basis point cut, but in fact, this result itself is already difficult for the market to price. How this interest rate meeting will determine the trend of risk assets will definitely depend on the degree of internal divergence and expectations for next year.

This internal divergence may be more intense than imagined; the opposition's forced compromise does not equate to a unanimous rate cut. At least from my perspective, there will definitely be a significant number of votes against the rate cut. Opposition affects market sentiment, and cryptocurrencies rely on emotional liquidity. A disunited rate cut may not necessarily be a positive for the crypto space.

2025.12.6 Market Analysis

Over the weekend, the major market entered a range consolidation, and one must patiently wait for a clear signal before entering trades. The recent market seems complex, but it is actually simple. The complexity lies in the up-and-down fluctuations that are hard to grasp, while the simplicity is that the trend is a continuous squeeze.

Due to typically weak liquidity over the weekend, operations need to be particularly cautious.

Two key levels to watch:
The first is the gap below, around 87500. If it dips to this level during the day and fills the gap, then rebounds, one might consider placing long positions, with the extreme rebound levels at 97000-102000. This is a relatively ideal technical formation; do not enter unless a clear rebound signal appears.
The second is that if it fails to break above, there may be further retracement space, and one can consider shorting at highs, with strong support in the range of 85000-86000 below.

The weekend is likely to see narrow fluctuations, so be cautious of the potential drop on Monday. The market is becoming increasingly quiet, and the reference value of trading volume is limited, with few opportunities. It is advisable to remain patient and wait for clearer signals to emerge!

2025.12.5 Macroeconomic Market Analysis

Technical Aspects:
No matter how the market rebounds, the likelihood is that it is an escape opportunity! A high short strategy is currently the most reasonable plan! The extreme pressure range is between 97000 and 102000, and the weekly level has already entered a downward trend. Currently, it is a super rebound at the weekly level, with the monthly MACD showing a high dead cross and the daily level also trending downward. In summary, it will not be a rapid decline, so patience is required to wait for opportunities.

Macroeconomic Aspects:
There are three very important time points in December, and the market in the next three weeks will revolve around these time points. Here is a summary for everyone;

First: December 11, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision. Previously, it was expected that there would be no rate cut in December, but now the probability of a rate cut is very high, at 87%;

Second: December 19, the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision. Previously, the market expected that the Bank of Japan would not raise interest rates in December, but this Monday, the Governor of the Bank of Japan's public speech hinted that there is a high probability of a rate hike on the 19th;

Third: December 26, the massive year-end options settlement for the market, which can be said to be the most important settlement day in the options market. It is both the quarterly settlement time and the last settlement time of the year, so the volume is very large, with a nominal price reaching 23 billion;

The first two are major news items because the decisions of the Federal Reserve to cut rates and the Bank of Japan to raise rates are quite important. However, this time the market expectations for both sides differ from the initial expectations, which increases market uncertainty;

The third is options data. Currently, the biggest pain point for options is 100000, with the maximum peak for PUTs at 84. This indicates that in December, it is very difficult for market prices to break and stabilize above 100000, and the 84 level has institutions providing bearish protection. A few days earlier, when the market fell below 84, it quickly rebounded without bottoming out, which is likely the reason.

Brothers, today EA quantitative trading made a profit of $4300, more stable than the cryptocurrency market and higher profits than the A-shares, feeling satisfied...

2025.12.4 Macroeconomic Market Analysis

The past two weeks have been reminding to accumulate BTC at the bottom, and now it's comfortable for the brothers.
When others are panicking, cutting losses, and BTC has dropped more than 30%, it's a good opportunity to accumulate at the bottom.

When everyone starts asking if they can still buy? That's when it becomes easier to pull back.

The three core driving forces for future growth
(1) Institutional involvement, continuous buying
Pioneer Capital, Bank of America, and other institutions have begun to allocate BTC. If even 0.25% of these institutions' capital flows into Bitcoin, within 2 years, there will be at least over 70 billion US dollars flowing into Bitcoin.
(2) Federal Reserve interest rate cuts
The candidate for the Federal Reserve chairman has been confirmed, likely to be Hasset. Hasset is friendly towards the cryptocurrency circle and likes to inject liquidity. There is a high probability of interest rate cuts in December, and the Federal Reserve may cut rates at least 3 times next year.
(3) The United States is introducing favorable policies for cryptocurrency
The 'Cryptocurrency Market Structure Bill' is about to be passed. If passed, the bill will ultimately bring much-needed regulatory clarity to the cryptocurrency industry, which could turn favorable conditions into unfavorable ones.

Current possible negative factors:
(1) The United States and Venezuela getting into conflict
(2) Russia and Europe getting into conflict

Be aware that the financial market carries significant risks, and one must maintain a calm mindset to bear the risks before reinvesting. The country's prohibition against ordinary citizens trading cryptocurrencies is justified, as most end up losing money. The hard-earned money goes into the crypto circle, only to be liquidated by a contract, or invested in a CX project, or playing with a small exchange, or getting hacked, and quickly goes to zero.

Only 5% of people in this market can make money; the difficulty is more than 5 times that of stock trading.

Current suggestion: Start selling BTC in batches at the high points within the range of 97000-102000. Additionally, consider allocating some gold to grasp the larger trend, otherwise, it’s easy to be manipulated and harvested by whales.

The analysis is for reference only; adults must take responsibility for their own decisions. Investing involves risks; please invest with spare money and think independently!

2025.12.3 Macro Market Analysis

Hello brothers, this time the washout is really harsh. If it weren't for our long-term and essential perspective, we might have been washed out as well.

The dog fund first used various minor negative news to aggressively sell off, then let everyone panic sell at the bottom, so they could take the opportunity to collect cheap chips. Once they bought enough, they released positive news to pump the market.
Most people in the cryptocurrency circle are clearly arranged.

So what positive news did they release while we were sleeping last night?
(1) American banks allow wealth advisors to recommend clients allocate up to 4% of their assets in Bitcoin;
(2) The world's second-largest asset management company, Vanguard, will allow investors to trade BlackRock's Bitcoin spot ETF.

Then they say that institutional waves are rushing into the Bitcoin market, and a bull market is coming in 2026!
Yesterday we analyzed that on 10.11, a giant whale transferred a large amount of funds into Binance to buy the dip. Now it's good, after buying the dip, they release positive news and aggressively pump the market.

That said, if only 0.25% of these institutional funds flow into Bitcoin, there will be at least over $70 billion flowing into Bitcoin in the next two years.

At the same time, last night Trump said the candidate for the Federal Reserve Chairman has been determined, likely to be Hassert. Hassert is friendly to the cryptocurrency circle and likes to ease monetary policy, so that is also positive news.

Currently, it is recommended to hold BTC spot. If you have more than 10% profit, you can choose to sell to grasp the phase trend; otherwise, it's easy to be manipulated and harvested by the dog fund. But be aware that the financial market has a lot of risks, so have a calm mindset to bear the risks before reinvesting, and don't be startled all day long.

There may be negative news in the future:
(1) The U.S. and Venezuela might go to war
(2) Putin says he cannot accept Europe's amendments to the Russia-Ukraine 'peace plan'. If Europe wants to go to war, Russia is now ready, and conflicts may arise.

So besides BTC, it's still good to allocate some gold.

The analysis is just a friendly reference. Adults should be responsible for their own decisions. Investment has risks; please invest with idle money and think independently!

2025.12.2 Macro Market Analysis

Good morning, brothers. The recent market is quite strange, with short-term interest rate cut expectations rising, and the U.S. is set to cut rates in December. However, inflation remains stubborn, geopolitical risks are increasing, and Japan is raising interest rates, leading to bearish sentiments. These are minor bearish factors, but they have resulted in significant declines in the market.

Currently, most older Bitcoin mining machines have fallen below the shutdown price, and miners are no longer making profits, with investment payback periods exceeding 3 years.

The market is now concerned about MicroStrategy (MSTR) facing a crisis: the sharp drop in BTC has led this company to offload a large amount of BTC, which might also be a factor for the significant drop.

MSTR's total BTC holdings exceed 650,000 (about 3% of the total Bitcoin supply), with an average cost basis of approximately $74,400. However, analysis suggests that MSTR will only sell large amounts of coins when the BTC price drops to $50,000:
- mNAV significantly below 1.0, stock price may fall below $100
- Financing channels are essentially closed, unable to raise funds through stock or bond markets
- The company may be forced to sell 10-20% of its Bitcoin to repay upcoming debts
- Even so, the company's debt-to-asset ratio will remain over 2.0 times, avoiding insolvency

So it appears there is not too much to worry about; the buying power seems decent. In the past week, ten new wallets have been created that received a total of 2,612 BTC from BitGo, which is approximately $231 million at current prices. A major whale with ID 1011 has also transferred a large amount of funds to Binance. On-chain data shows an increase in whale proportions.

Therefore, our current judgment is:
We are close to a temporary bottom, but we need to guard against a pullback to $80,000; however, $80,000 should be a temporary bottom, and new lows are likely next year.

BTC needs to break through $110,000 and hold for 2 days to achieve a real reversal; otherwise, it will all be false. This is evidently difficult, so the focus remains on rebounds.

Pay attention to these major events this week that will affect the strength of the rebound:
Today at 23:00, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman speaks;
Tomorrow at 21:15, U.S. November ADP employment numbers;
Thursday at 21:30, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending November 29 (in ten thousand);
Friday at 23:00, U.S. PCE price index year-on-year;
Friday at 23:00, initial value of U.S. December one-year inflation rate expectations;
Friday at 23:00, initial value of U.S. December University of Michigan consumer confidence index.

This analysis is for friendly reference only; adults are responsible for their own decisions. Investing carries risks; please invest with discretionary funds and think independently!

2025.12.1 Macroeconomic Market Analysis

Hello brothers, let's talk about whether there is still hope for the market?

Today there was a big drop, 4 major reasons:
(1) The Bank of Japan made hawkish statements, hinting at a rate hike
(2) Trump posted that Powell will resign, causing panic in the financial markets, everyone is worried that Trump will act recklessly
(3) Recently, the People's Bank of China further cracked down on cryptocurrency trading
(4) Yearn yETH pool was attacked, a large amount was stolen

Have you noticed that when the market is bad, there are only bad news, not a single good news? When the market is good, there is only good news, not a single bad news. If you say the media is not controlled by big players, I do not believe it.
The Bitcoin Ahr999 indicator has a dollar-cost averaging line at 1.2, a bottom line at 0.45, and the current value is 0.57, reflecting the current market situation. You can dollar-cost average into spot BTC daily, but be cautious of a pullback to 80,000 (as mentioned in last week's analysis).

The interest rates are still high, combined with the changing international situation, market liquidity has not yet recovered, currently in the consolidation phase of a new cycle, which is expected to last 1-2 months, until all the WeChat groups go silent, everyone has lost hope and is cutting losses. Of course, if we are waiting for the major bottom on the weekly chart, it is expected to be at the end of next year, anticipated to be in the range of 45,000-55,000 USD.

Now we need to work hard to make money and maintain a calm mind,
As big players gather the bottom chips, combined with economic data showing a decrease in inflation, the market will then show improvements.

Key events to watch this week:
Tuesday 9:00 Powell speaks;
Tuesday 23:00 Fed Governor Bowman speaks;
Wednesday 21:15 US November ADP employment numbers;
Thursday 21:30 US initial jobless claims for the week ending November 29 (10,000);
Friday 23:00 US PCE price index year-on-year;
Friday 23:00 US December one-year inflation rate expectation preliminary value;
Friday 23:00 US December University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index preliminary value.

The analysis is only a friendly reference, adults must take responsibility for their own decisions, investment carries risks, please invest idle money and think independently!

2025.11.30 Market Analysis

The Bitcoin is currently around the position of 90700; the weekend fluctuations are small, and it is generally in a narrow consolidation state; on the hourly level, it is operating near the middle track of the Bollinger Bands, with the upper and lower track spaces narrowing, indicating a decrease in short-term volatility; the recent candlesticks show a small body pattern alternating between red and green, which indicates that the short-term bullish and bearish forces are in a tug-of-war state, with no obvious directional breakthrough.

On the daily level, the candlesticks are very close to the middle track of the Bollinger Bands, which may indicate a short-term risk of pullback. The short-term trend belongs to a fluctuating consolidation pattern, with bullish and bearish forces temporarily balanced. If it breaks down below 90,000, then caution is needed for a pullback risk to the range of 89,000-88,000.

Operation Suggestions:
For Bitcoin, set long positions in the range of 88500-87500, with a stop loss at 86000 and a take profit at 92800. For short positions, set at 91700, with a stop loss at 93100 and a take profit at 89500.

For Ethereum, set long positions in the range of 2930-2880, with a stop loss at 2850 and a take profit at 3150. For short positions, set at 3070, with a stop loss at 3120 and a take profit at 2980.

Yesterday, the central bank held a severe meeting, specifically targeting 'virtual currency trading speculation'.

The core message is three points:

First, the definition hasn't changed; Bitcoin and Ethereum are absolutely not money in the country and cannot be spent as money. Anyone who dares to circulate them will be violating the law;
Second, business red lines: any activities involving virtual currency exchanges or trading matching are all considered 'illegal financial activities' and will lead to arrests;

Third, new focus: this time, the spotlight is on 'stablecoins' (such as USDT), explicitly stating that these things are accomplices to money laundering, fraud, and illegal outflow of funds, and are fundamentally unmanageable, so they must be strictly cracked down upon.

Everyone should pay attention to a term in the news called 'coordinated mechanism', indicating that this is not just a matter for the central bank, but involves public security, prosecution, and internet information agencies all working together. Previously, people thought speculation in cryptocurrencies was a personal freedom, but now the authorities tell you this is called 'illegal financial activities'. The harshest aspect here is the classification of 'stablecoins': they were previously seen by many as tools to bypass foreign exchange controls, but now the authorities directly equate them with 'illegal cross-border capital transfer'. What does this mean? It means that in the future, buying and selling USDT will no longer be a simple investment behavior; it may very well be classified as 'disguised foreign exchange trading' or even as an accomplice to 'money laundering'.

Those still engaged in OTC (over-the-counter trading) and 'crypto industry big shots' should be very cautious, as the risks are now extremely high. Previously, it might have just been a frozen card; now, there is a high probability of being classified as 'aiding and abetting crime' or 'illegal business operations', which can lead to imprisonment.

Ordinary speculative investors should take note: the state has said, 'not legally compensable', meaning that if you are scammed on a platform, if the exchange runs away, or if USDT crashes, the law does not protect you. Reporting to the police is useless; your money is just thrown into the water. What does everyone think about this?

11.29 Market Analysis

The price of Bitcoin fluctuates around 90800, showing a short-term downtrend. Previously, it quickly dropped from the high of 93080 to 90155, then slightly rebounded but with weak momentum, failing to break through key resistance; during the decline, trading volume significantly increased, with heavy selling pressure, while during the rebound, the volume did not follow, indicating a severe lack of buying power.

Currently, the price is in the middle-lower range of the Bollinger Bands, with signs of widening; the short-term bearish signals are clear. In terms of candlestick patterns, a combination of "large bearish candle + small bullish candle" has recently appeared, with the large bearish candle indicating strong bearishness, while the small bullish candle confirms the weakness of the rebound, overall indicating a weak pattern.

Trading Suggestions:
Long positions in the Bitcoin range of 88500-87500, with a stop loss at 86000 and a take profit at 92800.
Long positions in the Ethereum range of 2930-2880, with a stop loss at 2850 and a take profit at 3150.

2025.11.28 Macro Market Analysis

Good afternoon, brothers. Let's talk about the upcoming development of the market.

(1) Has the 4-year cycle ended?
The traditional 4-year cycle has become ineffective. A few days ago, before the drop to $80,000, it counted as one cycle. Now we have entered a new cycle.

(2) What are the characteristics of the new cycle?
The new cycle is led by traditional financial institutions, whereas previously it was dominated by whales.
The cost for the main players in the new cycle is very high; previous whales had a BTC cost of $1,000, while the current whales, meaning various institutions, have a BTC cost of $80,000.
In the new cycle, altcoins are too numerous and mostly worthless. The technological hype has collapsed, and the various altcoins in the blockchain are insignificant compared to AI, which is true productivity. Therefore, it will be very difficult to have an altcoin season in the future.

(3) How to view the new cycle?
The rhythm of the secondary market in the new cycle has slowed down, while the pace of meme coins has accelerated. In the past old cycle, the BTC trend was viewed in terms of days and weeks, but in the current new cycle, it should be viewed in terms of months and half-years.

(4) How high can BTC go in the future?
In 2028, there is a 70% probability it can reach $150,000. In 2029, the process of breaking through $200,000 will be slow, requiring patience.

(5) Can MON be bought?
With many airdrops and market dumps, the hype will fade in a few days; it's better to focus on buying BTC.

The analysis is just a friendly reference. Adults must take responsibility for their own decisions. Investing has risks; please invest disposable income and think independently!

Well done

Keep it up

2025.11.27 Macroeconomic Market Analysis

Good afternoon, brothers. The analysis from last week and this week has mentioned that BTC will rebound to over $90,000 this week and then continue to fluctuate. The price has now reached over $90,000, and it will be difficult to see a significant increase in the next few days; it will continue to fluctuate for several days. It will break through $93,000 next week.

The whole world is waiting for the non-farm payroll data on December 16. Yesterday's retail data was below expectations, which is favorable for interest rate cuts. Currently, the probability of a rate cut in December is 85%, but if the non-farm data is negative, there will be a pullback below $90,000. If it is positive, it will rebound sharply to $ 9.7 million dollars.
When others panic, I am greedy; when others are greedy, I run. Below $86,000 is a particularly good time to buy the dip.

An old cycle has ended. After this round of decline, a new cycle will begin. Before the new cycle, ancient Bitcoin whales have made too much profit and have been selling continuously. Many ancient Bitcoin whales have already sold out, including early ICO participants of ETH, and most whales, including distributed capital, have also largely exited. After the new cycle begins, without these profit-taking, the market will be much lighter.

The previous whales bought BTC at $1,000. Now, the whales, which include various institutions, have a cost basis of $80,000 for BTC.

The development of an upward trend requires violent fluctuations to complete the washout and the change of hands. No pain, no gain!
In a bear market, only invest in BTC, gradually dollar-cost averaging, but keep some ammunition to guard against a drop to $80,000. Remember, no one can buy at the very bottom, and prices may still fall after buying the dip. We can only grasp the overall direction.

This analysis is for friendly reference only. Adults must take responsibility for their own decisions. Investing has risks; please invest with spare money and think independently!