STH-SOPR tracks realized profit and loss for coins moved within 155 days — the speculative layer most reactive to price momentum. LTH-SOPR applies the same ratio to outputs older than 155 days, measuring conviction holders whose decisions carry greater market weight. Above 1.0 signals profit realization; below 1.0 signals active loss. Together, they expose the full P&L architecture of any cycle.

Since December 2025, LTH-SOPR has closed below 1.0 on 75 separate days — a reading that appeared zero times in the 2017 bull market, where LTH-SOPR averaged 2.32 and ranged from 1.44 to 4.71 with every moving long-term holder in profit. The structural driver is clear: Bitcoin peaked at $124,450 in October 2025. Those buyers became long-term holders in March 2026, when price had declined to the $66-70K range. On March 11, LTH-SOPR hit 0.639 at $70,088 — implying an aggregate LTH cost basis of $109,606 and a realized loss of 36% by the ATH cohort.

The STH signal is more constructive. After collapsing to 0.922 on January 23 at $89,557 — reflecting panic from buyers who entered near the cycle top — STH-SOPR has held predominantly above 1.0 through April and May 2026, averaging 1.003 with 30 of 47 days positive. This mirrors post-capitulation recovery seen in prior cycles. Yet LTH-SOPR remains structurally split: 2022-era accumulators with an implied cost basis of $23,367 produced April 5's spike to 2.877 at $67,215, while ATH buyers continue absorbing losses. With 47% of May's LTH-SOPR readings still below 1.0, sustained recovery above that threshold is the unresolved confirmation this cycle is missing.

Written by Crazzyblockk