BON CRYPTO

🇻🇳 Đề xuất tăng mức phạt khi giao dịch crypto ở sàn không được cấp phép

Bộ Tài chính vừa tổng hợp góp ý cho dự thảo Nghị định xử phạt trong lĩnh vực crypto, với xu hướng chung là tăng mức phạt để siết kỷ luật khi thị trường vẫn đang thí điểm.

Với nhà đầu tư cá nhân giao dịch không qua tổ chức được cấp phép, Bộ Công an đề xuất nâng mức phạt từ 10–30 triệu lên 30–50 triệu đồng và đã được tiếp thu. Trước đó, SSI từng đề xuất mức 70–100 triệu đồng, nhưng chưa được chấp thuận.

Với tổ chức cung cấp dịch vụ, dự thảo mới nâng mức phạt tối đa lên 200 triệu đồng cho các vi phạm về an ninh hệ thống, do mức cũ bị đánh giá là quá nhẹ so với rủi ro gây thiệt hại lớn.

SSI cũng đề xuất áp mức phạt ngang chứng khoán (tối đa 1,5 tỷ với cá nhân, 3 tỷ với tổ chức), nhưng cơ quan soạn thảo cho biết hiện chưa đủ cơ sở pháp lý, và sẽ xem xét điều chỉnh sau giai đoạn thí điểm.

JPMORGAN XEM XÉT GIAO DỊCH CRYPTO

🔸 JPMorgan đang cân nhắc cung cấp dịch vụ giao dịch crypto cho các khách hàng tổ chức lớn.
🔸 Ngân hàng đang xem xét cả giao dịch spot và phái sinh nhưng chưa đưa ra quyết định cuối cùng.
🔸 Nhu cầu từ khách hàng và khung pháp lý crypto tại Mỹ ngày càng rõ ràng là động lực chính.
🔸 Các tổ chức muốn giao dịch crypto thông qua hệ thống được quản lý chặt chẽ, không phải nền tảng bán lẻ.
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Michael Saylor hinted that Strategy will buy more BTC.
$BTC

Chainlink menjadi infrastruktur inti.

RWAs, ETF, stablecoin semua membutuhkan data yang dapat diandalkan.

Ini berarti permintaan LINK tumbuh seiring dengan skala adopsi.

Harga tertinggal dari fundamental.

Itu adalah sumber dari potensi kenaikan.
$LINK

Mặc dù Tom Lee (Chủ tịch Bitmine và Đồng sáng lập kiêm Trưởng bộ phận Nghiên cứu tại Fundstrat Global Advisors) liên tục duy trì quan điểm bullish với BTC và ETH, báo cáo dành cho nhóm khách hàng riêng lại cho thấy triển vọng crypto của Fundstrat mang tính thận trọng trong ngắn hạn, đặc biệt là với Ethereum.

Trong báo cáo Crypto Outlook 2026, Sean Farrell, Trưởng bộ phận Chiến lược Tài sản Số tại Fundstrat, đưa ra kịch bản cơ sở mang tính phòng thủ cho nửa đầu năm 2026. Ông ước tính thị trường sẽ có một nhịp điều chỉnh đáng kể, trong đó:

- BTC có thể giảm về vùng 60.000 đến 65.000 USD
- ETH về khoảng 1.800 đến 2.000 USD
- SOL về khoảng 50 đến 75 USD

Những mức giá này được xem là cơ hội mua dài hạn hấp dẫn. Farrell cho biết ông ưu tiên giữ thế phòng thủ cho đến khi thị trường xác nhận lại sức mạnh một cách rõ ràng.
$BTC
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$SOL

KALENDER PERISTIWA EKONOMI MINGGU DEPAN (WAKTU AS)

Minggu ini relatif tenang karena minggu Natal dan pasar AS ditutup pada hari Kamis.

🗓️ SELASA, 23 DESEMBER

🔸 Laporan PDB AS untuk Q3 (Diperkirakan 3,2% | Sebelumnya 3,8%)

🔸 Indeks Kepercayaan Konsumen AS untuk bulan Desember (Diperkirakan 91,7 | Sebelumnya 88,7)
Indeks ini mengukur tingkat kepercayaan di antara warga Amerika mengenai ekonomi, pekerjaan, dan pendapatan, mencerminkan kemungkinan mereka untuk berbelanja atau mengencangkan ikat pinggang di periode yang akan datang.

🗓️ RABU, 24 DESEMBER

🔸 Klaim pengangguran awal mingguan di AS (Diperkirakan 225.000 | Sebelumnya 224.000)

🗓️ KAMIS, 25 DESEMBER

🔸 Pasar AS ditutup untuk Natal

🔸 Pasar dibuka kembali pada hari Jumat, 26 Desember

⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️ Inflasi CPI AS di November

- CPI Y/Y 2.7% (Perkiraan = 3.1%, sebelumnya = 3.0%)

- Core CPI Y/Y 2.6% (Perkiraan = 3.0%, sebelumnya = 3.0%)

🇺🇸 PEMBARUAN KEBIJAKAN FED UNTUK MENDUKUNG INOVASI BANK

🔸 The Fed telah membalikkan pernyataan kebijakan 2023 yang membatasi aktivitas inovasi oleh bank anggota di bawah pengawasan Fed.

🔸 Kebijakan lama mengharuskan bank-bank ini hanya melakukan aktivitas yang mirip dengan bank yang diawasi oleh agen federal lainnya, sehingga membatasi produk dan layanan baru tertentu.

🔸 The Fed menyatakan bahwa sistem keuangan dan persepsi terhadap produk dan layanan inovatif telah berubah, menjadikan kebijakan 2023 tidak lagi sesuai.

🔸 Kebijakan baru membuka jalan yang lebih jelas bagi bank yang diasuransikan dan tidak diasuransikan, selama mereka berada di bawah pengawasan Fed, untuk menerapkan aktivitas inovatif.

🔸 The Fed memberikan sinyal pergeseran dari pola pikir "jangan lakukan itu" menjadi pendekatan "buktikan Anda bisa melakukannya dengan aman". Ini membantu mengurangi ketidakpastian hukum bagi bank yang ingin berinovasi.

BULLISH

$SOL AKAN MEMULAI PENGUJIAN TRANSAKSI YANG RESISTEN TERHADAP KUANTUM VIA PROYEK SEBELAS 🔥

$402M dalam Posisi Panjang dan Pendek dilikuidasi dalam 24 jam terakhir.
$BTC
$ETH

PEMBARUAN REGULASI KRIPTO AS 🇺🇸

🔸 Senat AS telah menunda pemungutan suara pada RUU kerangka pasar kripto hingga awal 2026.

🔸 Alih-alih mengadakan dengar pendapat publik, Ketua Komite Perbankan Senat Tim Scott mengadakan pertemuan pribadi dengan perusahaan-perusahaan kripto besar seperti Coinbase, Kraken, Ripple, Chainlink, dan a16z untuk meninjau versi terbaru dari RUU tersebut.

🔸 Lembaga keuangan tradisional besar seperti Goldman Sachs, BNY Mellon, dan SIFMA (organisasi advokasi untuk industri sekuritas) juga berpartisipasi dalam diskusi.

🔸 Secara keseluruhan, proses pengembangan regulasi kripto di AS berjalan lambat melalui pertemuan dan diskusi. Harapannya tetap bahwa RUU tersebut dapat disahkan pada kuartal pertama tahun depan.

🔸 Badan-badan seperti FDIC mulai mengeluarkan panduan terkait dengan Undang-Undang GENIUS. FDIC telah menyetujui proposal yang mengatur proses aplikasi untuk bank yang ingin mengeluarkan stablecoin pembayaran di bawah Undang-Undang GENIUS.

🔸 Bank yang diasuransikan diwajibkan untuk mengajukan permohonan kepada FDIC jika mereka ingin mengeluarkan stablecoin melalui anak perusahaan dan harus mendapatkan persetujuan sebelumnya. Regulasi ini menguraikan proses peninjauan aplikasi, waktu pemrosesan, dan hak banding. Periode komentar publik akan dibuka selama 60 hari setelah publikasi.$BTC

⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️
Laporan Non-Farm Payrolls 🇺🇸 November 2025

+ Jumlah pekerjaan yang dibuat: 64.000 (Perkiraan = 50.000, bulan sebelumnya = 119.000)

+ Tingkat pengangguran: 4,6% (Perkiraan = 4,5%, bulan sebelumnya = 4,4%)

MetaMask has officially added support for the Bitcoin network, marking a shift from an "Ethereum-only" wallet to a truly multi-chain wallet.

With this update, users can buy, send, receive, and swap BTC directly within MetaMask, eliminating the need for wrapped BTC versions as before, thus reducing intermediary and smart contract risks. The wallet currently supports SegWit addresses and will soon add Taproot.

MetaMask is also expanding into the prediction market with the integration of Polymarket, allowing users to place predictions directly from the wallet. Its parent company, Consensys, is also preparing to release the MASK token and is aiming for an IPO.$BTC

⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️
Strategi terus menghabiskan $980,3M untuk mengakuisisi tambahan 10.645 BTC dengan harga rata-rata sekitar $92.098/BTC.
$BTC

RINGKASAN KEPUTUSAN FED PADA DESEMBER 2025

1️⃣ Suku Bunga
Fed memutuskan untuk menurunkan suku bunga sebesar 0,25% – penurunan ketiga berturut-turut pada tahun 2025, seperti yang diharapkan oleh pasar.

👉 Tiga anggota tidak setuju: Goolsbee dan Schmid menentang pemotongan suku bunga. Miran ingin pemotongan 0,5%.

2️⃣ Notulen Pertemuan
- Fed akan mempertimbangkan “tingkat dan waktu” penyesuaian lebih lanjut.

- Fed akan mulai membeli Surat Berharga Treasury AS pada 12 Desember. Selama 30 hari, Fed akan membeli Surat Berharga Treasury senilai $40 miliar.

3️⃣ Perkiraan Ekonomi 2026
- Pertumbuhan PDB MENINGKAT dari 1,8% menjadi 2,3%.

- Tingkat pengangguran TETAP TIDAK BERUBAH di 4,4%.

- Inflasi PCE MENURUN dari 2,6% menjadi 2,4%.

- Inflasi PCE inti MENURUN dari 2,6% menjadi 2,5%.

👉 PDB direvisi naik, PCE dan PCE inti direvisi turun, tingkat pengangguran tetap tidak berubah, dan direvisi turun untuk 2027.

The Fed cut interest rates by 0.25%, but this decision reveals deep internal divisions. The vote was 9 in favor and 3 against, the highest level of opposition since 2019. One person wanted a more drastic cut while two wanted to keep rates unchanged. Therefore, many experts called this a “hawkish rate cut.”

The Fed also signaled a slowdown in the pace of future rate cuts. A dot plot shows only one more cut in 2026 and another in 2027, after which long-term rates will stabilize around 3%. Some officials even want to avoid cutting rates next year.

Inflation remains above target at 2.8%, and the Fed predicts it won't return to 2% until 2028. The GDP forecast for 2026 has been slightly revised upwards.

The Fed also announced it would buy back government bonds, starting with $40 billion in short-term bonds to ease pressure on the money market.

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Federal Reserve to buy $40 billion worth of treasury bills over the next 30 days.

⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️
The Fed menurunkan suku bunga sebesar 0,25% menjadi sekitar 3,5% - 3,75%

Ini sesuai dengan 90% prediksi pasar 👍

Anthony Pompliano’s ProCap purchased an additional 49 BTC, bringing its total to 5,000 BTC and placing it 21st among companies holding the most BTC.

American Bitcoin Corp, backed by the Trump family, purchased an additional 416 BTC, bringing its total to 4,783 BTC and placing it 22nd.
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Three Questions Even More Important Than the Fed's Interest Rate Decision Tonight

The Fed is predicted to announce another 0.25% interest rate cut at 2 AM tomorrow (88% probability on CME). However, what investors are more interested in is how the Fed will signal the direction of monetary policy in the coming year.

Based on expert opinions, the key areas to watch besides the interest rate decision are:

1️⃣ Will Powell be able to build enough consensus to minimize opposition?

- At the most recent meeting, the Fed recorded a rare two-way split since 2019: Miran wanted a sharp 0.5% cut while Schmid wanted to keep interest rates unchanged. This time, analysts predict the number of dissenting members could increase to 3-5.

- Powell will have to try to keep this figure at least as low as the October meeting to avoid creating internal chaos and causing market panic.

2️⃣ What will the interest rate dot plot look like?

- Many FOMC members may not publicly oppose the decision during the vote but express their opposition through a dot plot (presented anonymously). This is seen as an indirect way of protesting, avoiding public confrontation.

- If the dot plot is too chaotic, market expectations regarding the 2026–2027 rate cut trajectory could change significantly.

3️⃣ How hawkish can Powell signal?

- Analysts believe the Fed will cut interest rates, but with a firm message: there will be no further cuts. A “hawkish cut” to appease both sides.

- However, the credibility of this message remains a big question, as the Fed doesn't yet have key economic data for the period leading up to its next meeting (January next year).

- Powell may use the 2:30 AM press conference tomorrow to send hawkish signals, but he must be tactful because next week's Non-farm Payrolls report could reverse everything.