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Polymarket odds on Bitcoin falling below $45K this year briefly rose to 52%.

Prediction markets remained split, with 76% still expecting Bitcoin to fall below $55K.

Analysts tracked $45K, $40K, and $30K levels as downside risk remained in focus.

Polymarket moved closer to a bearish majority after its market on whether Bitcoin falls below $45,000 this year reached 52% before easing to 51% at press time. The move still marked a 3% gain in downside conviction and highlighted a sharper risk focus across prediction markets.

BREAKING: Bitcoin is now likely to crash below $45,000 this year.

52% chance. https://t.co/YTvlpcPIjX

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) March 30, 2026

YES shares traded at 51 cents, while NO shares changed hands at 50 cents. That pricing showed a narrowly split market, yet one leaning toward further weakness. Earlier sessions had kept sentiment between 44% and 49%, making the latest shift notable in the platform’s recent range.

Source: Polymarket

The market backdrop added weight to that change in positioning. Bitcoin traded at $66,296 at press time after peaking at $75,000 in mid-March. Besides, the asset was down 6.7% on the weekly chart and had slipped from levels above $72,000 in the previous session.

Market capitalization fell 1.69% to about $1.32 trillion. Trading volume, however, rose 21.32% to $38.07 billion, showing elevated activity as the price weakened.

Prediction Markets Show Split but Cautious Positioning

Polymarket’s broader contract board showed mixed expectations rather than a one-way collapse call. The platform showed a 61% chance of Bitcoin surpassing $80,000, down 15% from the previous figure.

Source: Polymarket

At the same time, nearly 76% of bettors expected the asset to fall below $55,000. Those numbers placed traders between hopes of an upside recovery and near-term downside caution. Kalshi, on the other hand, presented a different ceiling-focused reading. Its market assigned a 34% chance that Bitcoin would return to the $100,000 level.

Source: Kalshi

That figure contrasted with the heavier downside positioning seen in the lower-price contracts. Together, the data showed divided sentiment across platforms, with traders weighing both the potential for a rebound and the risk of deeper drawdowns.

Price Held Steady Despite Musk’s Bitcoin Post

The shifting sentiment also unfolded during another high-profile social media moment. Just yesterday, Elon Musk posted a five-minute clip showing an anime girl dancing with a Bitcoin logo behind her. Musk is widely known for posting about Dogecoin, which has often reacted strongly to his commentary. This time, the market response was muted.

pic.twitter.com/wHcxx0JBFl

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) March 30, 2026

Bitcoin traded near $67,000 before and after the post. The absence of a sharp move stood out because Musk-linked posts have previously fueled sudden crypto reactions. In this case, price action stayed largely unchanged, even as broader debate over direction intensified across social platforms and prediction markets.

Related: Beeline’s Q4 Revenue Leaps 127% Amid Rising Crypto Mortgage Use

Analysts Point to Historical Signals and Fractal Risk

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez highlighted a recurring signal involving the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages on the 3-day chart. According to his review, that crossover has appeared near the final phase of bear markets since 2014. In 2014, Bitcoin had already fallen 72% before the crossover formed in December.

https://t.co/QH5wLUdzW3

— Ali Charts (@alicharts) March 30, 2026

It then dropped another 52% over the next 23 days, marking the cycle bottom. Martinez said the pattern repeated in 2018 after a 67% drawdown. The crossover appeared in November, and the price later fell another 50% over the next 33 days.

In 2022, a 50% decline came before the crossover in May, followed by a further 45% drop within 33 days. A second low then formed 156 days later. In the current cycle, Martinez said Bitcoin had already corrected 52% from the October 2025 peak, while the crossover appeared on February 27, 2026.

Source: X

Roughly 30 days had passed since that signal emerged. Based on prior post-crossover declines of 40% to 50%, he identified accumulation zones near $40,000 and a deeper washout level at $30,000.

Source: X

Another analyst, Ted, tied the recent structure to a January 2026 fractal. He said BTC had lost its uptrend and now resembled that earlier setup. Ted noted that the prior move ended with a nearly 39% drop from the local peak. Applying a similar move, he placed the downside target at $45,000.

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Beeline Q4 revenue rose 127% as origination volume climbed 44% while loan economics improved.

Beeline launched blockchain-recorded equity deals as it expanded into tokenized home finance.

The company ended 2025 debt-free with over $50M in equity and a $100M revenue target in view.

Beeline Holdings reported record fourth-quarter growth on Monday, citing stronger lending activity and improved efficiency at the Nasdaq-listed crypto mortgage lender. According to reports, the company posted $2.5 million in net revenue for Q4 2025, up 127% from a year earlier and 8.3% from the prior quarter.

The quarter also showed heavier origination volume and broader use of blockchain tools in Beeline’s real estate finance strategy. Origination volume reached $84.7 million, up 44% year over year, while Beeline launched BeelineEquity and closed its first blockchain-recorded transactions before year-end.

Revenue Growth Outran Cost Pressures

Beeline’s Q4 Revenue rose during a quarter marked by higher operating expenses, which management largely attributed to non-cash stock-based compensation. Operating expenses increased primarily due to $4.2 million in non-cash stock-based compensation during the period.

Excluding that item, operating expenses increased 19% while revenue climbed 127%, according to the company’s release. Management added that non-cash stock-based compensation represented a significant share of its $27.3 million in annual operating expenses.

The company also reported better loan economics through late 2025 and into January 2026. Average revenue per loan increased 31%, while average cost per loan decreased 18%, extending an efficiency trend that management said would continue into early 2026.

Balance Sheet Strengthened During a Public Market Transition

Beeline said 2025 brought structural changes, including its public listing, debt elimination, and expansion of its technology stack. The company ended 2025 with more than $50 million in total equity and no corporate debt.

Nick Liuzza, Beeline’s co-founder and chief executive, said the company used 2025 to build its platform and improve loan-level economics. He said that work left the business positioned for faster growth while maintaining operational discipline.

Even with those gains, Beeline posted a full-year 2025 net loss of $31.5 million. In the fourth quarter, it reported a net income of negative $8.35 million and operating expenses of $10.55 million.

Analyst coverage remained limited, with one available rating on the shares, listed as a strong buy. Wall Street’s median 12-month price target stood at $4.50, about 109.3% above Beeline’s March 27 closing price of $2.15. At press time, shares were trading at $2.11 on Nasdaq.

Related: Labor Rule May Open 401(k)s to Bitcoin and Alternatives

Blockchain Expansion Opened a New Fee-Based Channel

Beeline’s Q4 Revenue also coincided with a wider move into blockchain-based real estate finance. During the quarter, the company launched BeelineEquity, which it described as a fee-based product tied to home equity.

Management said the new offering targets the $4 trillion home equity market in the United States. The platform aims to tokenize deed-recorded fractional residential equity through a blockchain-enabled structure built with TYTL.

Earlier in March, Beeline announced a joint effort with TYTL Corp. to tokenize deed-recorded fractional equity interests in United States homes using TYTL’s Solana-based infrastructure. The companies said they had completed 11 initial fractional-equity transactions and launched an initial portfolio.

Beeline estimated that every $1 billion in aggregate transaction value could generate roughly $41 million in cumulative revenue potential. That estimate covered facilitation, title, and closing fees connected to the platform’s transaction flow.

Management reiterated its target of reaching a $100 million annual revenue run rate within the next 24 months. The update left Beeline’s Q4 Revenue at the center of a quarter defined by higher scale, better loan margins, and new blockchain-linked activity.

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U.S. prosecutors linked Jonathan Spalletta to two Uranium Finance exploits in 2021.

The April 28 attack drained $53.3 million across 26 pools and shut the platform.

Federal agents seized $31 million as crypto exploits kept pressuring the sector.

U.S. authorities unsealed an indictment against Jonathan Spalletta, a Maryland resident accused of hacking Uranium Finance twice in April 2021 and draining more than $54 million. The U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York said he surrendered on Monday. Prosecutors charged him with computer fraud and money laundering, and they said he faces up to 30 years in prison.

Prosecutors Detail Two 2021 Exploits

The case centers on Uranium Finance, a BNB Chain fork of Uniswap that launched in April 2021 during the bull market. According to prosecutors, the platform lost funds in two separate attacks within weeks. First, on April 8, 2021, a bad actor exploited a smart contract flaw and withdrew far more rewards than allowed. The U.S. Attorney’s Office said that attack cost the platform about $1.4 million.

“Stealing from a crypto exchange is stealing – the claim that ‘crypto is different’ does not chang that,’” said U.S. Attorney Jay Clayton. “For the victims, there is nothing different about having your money taken.”https://t.co/jSaPJ0F5LR pic.twitter.com/TbQ1mLfOYp

— US Attorney SDNY (@SDNYnews) March 30, 2026

Later, Uranium Finance struck a private deal with the attacker. That agreement returned most of the funds, yet it let him keep about $386,000 as a fake bug bounty, according to prosecutors.

Then, on April 28, prosecutors said Spalletta exploited another smart contract error that governed withdrawal limits from liquidity pools. That second attack hit 26 separate pools and netted about $53.3 million in cryptocurrencies. As a result, Uranium Finance shut down after the catastrophic loss. Its website later went dark, and victims have had few answers since the exchange ceased operations.

Indictment Outlines Laundering Claims and Asset Seizure

According to the indictment, Spalletta moved the stolen funds through a complex chain of cryptocurrency transactions. Prosecutors said he also used Tornado Cash to obscure the money trail. Federal agents later seized about $31 million in cryptocurrency tied to the hack in February 2025. Authorities released no public details at that time, according to the text.

After that seizure, the criminal case moved forward. Spalletta, 36, of Rockville, Maryland, now faces one count of computer fraud and one count of money laundering. The press release said the computer fraud charge carries a maximum sentence of 10 years. It also said the money laundering charge carries a maximum sentence of 20 years.

He was due to appear before U.S. Magistrate Ona Wang on Monday to hear the charges. The Complex Frauds and Cybercrime Unit is prosecuting the case.

Read More: Hackers Frame “Bug Bounty” Prompts to Access Mexican Government Data

Officials Link The Case to Wider Crypto Crime Risks

U.S. Attorney Jay Clayton said Spalletta “exploited smart contracts to steal millions” from Uranium Finance and caused the exchange to shut down because it lacked funds. He added, “Stealing from a crypto exchange is stealing.” Clayton also said, “For the victims, there is nothing different about having your money taken.” He added that Spalletta caused “real victims real losses of tens of millions of dollars.”

How did prosecutors say one alleged attacker turn two smart contract flaws into one of 2021’s major DeFi losses? They said he paired the exploits with laundering tools and then spent part of the proceeds on rare collectibles and antique coins.

The charges arrived as crypto crime remained a persistent threat. PeckShield said crypto-related theft topped $4 billion in 2025, marking a 34% annual increase, while smart contract flaws accounted for a meaningful share.

The text also placed the Uranium Finance case within the broader 2021 wave of exploits. It said bad actors stole more than $2.6 billion through hacks and exploits that year, including the $610 million Poly Network attack.

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Google ha detto che Bitcoin potrebbe richiedere meno qubit per essere violato rispetto alle stime precedenti dell'industria.

Taproot potrebbe ampliare l'esposizione del portafoglio rendendo le chiavi pubbliche visibili on-chain per impostazione predefinita.

Attacchi in tempo reale potrebbero sfruttare la finestra di conferma di Bitcoin in circa nove minuti.

Il team di Quantum AI di Google ha detto lunedì che violare la blockchain di Bitcoin con computer quantistici potrebbe richiedere molta meno potenza di calcolo rispetto a quanto suggerito da molte stime recenti. In un post sul blog e in un whitepaper, il team ha affermato che meno di 500.000 qubit fisici potrebbero minacciare la crittografia di Bitcoin ed Ethereum. Ha anche affermato che l'upgrade Taproot di Bitcoin potrebbe ampliare l'esposizione perché rivela le chiavi pubbliche per impostazione predefinita.

La proposta del Lavoro offre ai fiduciari 401(k) un percorso definito per esaminare attentamente le crypto.

La regola valuta prima le commissioni, la liquidità, la valutazione, i benchmark e la complessità degli attivi.

Gli consulenti affermano che la maggior parte dei risparmiatori potrebbe comunque preferire fondi indicizzati a basso costo e di ampio mercato oggi.

Il Dipartimento del Lavoro degli Stati Uniti ha proposto una regola che potrebbe aprire i piani 401(k) a investimenti alternativi, inclusi beni crypto come Bitcoin. L'Amministrazione per la Sicurezza dei Benefici dei Lavoratori ha descritto la misura come storica. Ha dichiarato che la regola offre ai fiduciari un processo chiaro per esaminare beni non tradizionali. La proposta stabilisce procedure di safe-harbor per i gestori di piano.

Il Bitcoin ha cancellato quasi 200 milioni di dollari in 75 minuti mentre i tori e gli orsi venivano liquidati in successione.

Un calo di 1.700$ ha cancellato le posizioni long prima che un rimbalzo di 1.400$ liquidasse rapidamente le posizioni short.

L'RSI a 43,99 ha segnalato un momento in calo mentre la scadenza delle opzioni e la liquidità sottile hanno amplificato le oscillazioni.

Il Bitcoin ha subito un'improvvisa oscillazione di 75 minuti che ha cancellato quasi 200 milioni di dollari in posizioni con leva, mentre i rapidi movimenti di prezzo hanno punito i trader da entrambe le parti. Il commentatore di mercato Bull Theory ha riportato che l'asset è sceso da 66.710$ a 65.000$ in 60 minuti, cancellando più di 185 milioni di dollari in posizioni long.

Sam Bankman-Fried linked crypto payments to the fast rise of autonomous AI agents.

Trump called Bitcoin “very powerful” and backed a U.S. crypto leadership push in Miami.

Visa, Stripe, Coinbase, and Mastercard are building tools for agent-led digital payments.

Jailed cryptocurrency fraudster Sam Bankman-Fried tied digital asset payments to automated commerce after President Donald Trump gave cryptocurrency a central role at a Miami investment summit. In a post on X, he said payments are no longer driven solely by people, as software agents increasingly need to transact as well.

It's not just people who want to pay you in crypto, increasingly it's AI agents.

Crypto is the future of AI-native payments.

And @realDonaldTrump is the first president to see the national statregic potential of both crypto and AI. https://t.co/ROArUnx1Lf

— SBF (@SBF_FTX) March 29, 2026

The remark turned a political speech into a wider debate about how automated systems could move money on the internet. The exchange followed Trump’s appearance at the Future Investment Initiative Priority Summit, held from March 25 to March 27 at the Faena Hotel in Miami Beach.

During that speech, Trump called Bitcoin “very powerful” and said more people now prefer to pay with cryptocurrency. He also said the United States would become the world’s Bitcoin superpower and the undisputed crypto capital.

“Bitcoin is very powerful… So many people now want to pay you in crypto,” Trump remarked.

A Payment Argument, Not Just a Market Slogan

Bankman-Fried’s post stood out because it shifted attention from trading toward infrastructure. He argued that crypto fits a world where software agents handle payments, settle tasks, and manage funds without waiting for human approval.

That framing presented blockchain rails as tools for machine commerce rather than only as speculative assets. He also described Trump as the first president to recognize the strategic potential of digital assets and artificial intelligence.

“Crypto is the future of AI-native payments. And @realDonaldTrump is the first president to see the national statregic potential of both crypto and AI,” Bankman-Fried acknowledged. 

That claim landed days after World Liberty Financial launched payment infrastructure for blockchain-based agents. The system is designed to let those agents manage funds and transact on-chain.

Trump’s Miami Speech Set the Sequence

Trump’s remarks mattered as they placed digital payments inside a broader economic message. Speaking to investors, executives, and policymakers, he linked cryptocurrency to national competitiveness, technology, and capital flows. The timing also underscored how sharply his public posture has shifted since 2021.

Bankman-Fried then extended that message into a practical payment use case. Instead of focusing on consumers alone, he pointed to agents that could buy services, complete tasks, and move value across networks. That distinction helped explain why autonomous payments are gaining serious attention.

Related: Trump Pledges to Crown U.S. the World’s Bitcoin Superpower and Crypto Hub

Major Firms Are Already Building the Same Model

Industry examples reinforced that point with product announcements and strategy documents. Visa said in its 2026 payments outlook that agentic commerce is moving into the mainstream. It described a near-term model in which software systems transact on behalf of consumers and businesses.

Similarly, Stripe has already moved deeper into that model. It said machine payments now let developers charge agents directly for API calls and other usage through stablecoin micropayments. The company also partnered with OpenAI on shopping experiences within ChatGPT, integrating commerce tools into artificial intelligence interfaces.

Coinbase made a parallel case through its Agentic Wallets product. The company said the wallets enable non-custodial, autonomous payments for compute, data, storage, and related services via the x402 standard. Mastercard also said tokenized currencies and autonomous agents are reshaping commerce and then launched a crypto partner program tied to established payment rails.

Taken together, those developments explain why Bankman-Fried’s claim reached beyond social media. His post matched a pattern already visible across politics, fintech, and blockchain infrastructure. In that pattern, crypto was presented not as a theory but as a working payment layer for machine-led transactions.

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Il tasso di hash BTC è aumentato mentre il prezzo è rimasto al di sotto del suo picco, ampliando il divario di valore della rete.

CoinShares ha scoperto che le vecchie attrezzature di mining hanno lottato mentre i costi aumentavano e i margini si riducevano.

La forza della rete è rimasta solida anche mentre i miner vendevano riserve e la pressione finanziaria aumentava.

Il tasso medio di hash di Bitcoin ha continuato a salire anche se l'asset è stato scambiato al di sotto del suo recente picco, secondo un grafico di Glassnode condiviso su X dall'analista Michael van de Poppe. Il grafico ha mostrato la forza della rete salire oltre 1,1 zettahash al secondo nel 2025 e avvicinarsi a 1,3Z prima di un modesto ritracciamento nel 2026. Allo stesso tempo, CoinShares ha segnalato che molti miner hanno affrontato margini più stretti, costi di produzione in aumento e flussi di cassa negativi alla fine del 2025.

Barclays ha detto che i commenti di Trump ora non riescono a calmare le azioni mentre la fatica da titoli cresce.

Il petrolio è rimasto stabile mentre le azioni sono scese dopo che Trump ha accennato a progressi nel nuovo accordo con l'Iran.

Reuters ha detto che rendimenti, inflazione e crescita più lenta hanno mantenuto i timori di stagflazione in primo piano.

In un'inversione degli eventi, Barclays afferma che il cosiddetto 'Trump put' sta svanendo poiché gli investitori smettono di rispondere ai commenti di mercato del Presidente Donald Trump con la stessa fiducia. La banca ha detto che i trader avevano trattato i commenti di Trump sull'Iran e le politiche come un sostegno informale per gli asset a rischio. Eppure le azioni sono scese e il petrolio è aumentato anche dopo che Trump ha detto che l'Iran stava 'implorando' di fare un affare. Questo cambiamento, ha detto Barclays, mostra che la fatica da titoli sta indebolendo il supporto di mercato che un tempo seguiva la retorica presidenziale.

Un analista X ha identificato il ciclo di halving di Bitcoin come un eigenmode stabile nello spazio logaritmico.

SSA e DMD hanno isolato un ciclo di 4,19 anni attorno al percorso della legge di potenza a lungo termine di Bitcoin.

La ricerca sulle criptovalute ha collegato il calo di Bitcoin nel 2026 a una liquidità più ristretta e a una maggiore pressione macroeconomica.

Il ciclo di halving di Bitcoin di quattro anni è tornato al centro dell'attenzione dopo che l'analista X @Giovann35084111 ha dichiarato che un'analisi dei segnali avanzata lo ha identificato come un modello centrale nel comportamento del prezzo di Bitcoin. Allo stesso tempo, i rapporti indicano che Bitcoin è sceso dal suo picco di $127.000 nell'ottobre 2025 a un pavimento di $60.000 in meno di cinque mesi mentre la liquidità si è ristretta e l'appetito per il rischio è diminuito. Insieme, queste opinioni inquadrano l'attuale calo sia come un ciclo matematico che come una vendita guidata da fattori macroeconomici.

Tom Lee afferma che Ethereum ha superato l'oro da quando è iniziata la guerra nonostante il calo delle criptovalute.

Ethereum è sceso sotto i 2.000 dollari mentre 104 milioni di liquidazioni lunghe hanno colpito il mercato.

I dati di Fundstrat mostrano che Ethereum ha battuto Bitcoin, oro e azioni dalla fine di febbraio.

Tom Lee esorta gli investitori a ripensare le posizioni tradizionali di rifugio sicuro mentre gli asset digitali iniziano a recuperare durante un periodo di conflitto geopolitico. Il responsabile della ricerca di Fundstrat ha dichiarato che le criptovalute sembravano più forti dell'oro da quando è iniziata la guerra, anche dopo che una profonda vendita di mercato ha cancellato quasi 2 trilioni di dollari di valore da ottobre.

Trump said the U.S. will become the world’s Bitcoin superpower and crypto capital.

The speech linked crypto policy, regulation, and reserves to U.S. financial leadership.

Bitcoin stayed volatile as Middle East tensions added pressure to global risk assets.

U.S. President Donald Trump used the FII PRIORITY Miami 2026 summit to place cryptocurrency at the center of his economic message, saying the United States would become the world’s Bitcoin superpower and crypto hub. His remarks marked one of the clearest political endorsements of digital assets from a sitting U.S. president and framed crypto as part of a broader competition for capital, innovation, and global financial influence.

The speech came during the March 25 to March 27 summit at the Faena Hotel in Miami Beach, where business leaders, investors, and policymakers gathered to discuss technology, capital flows, and economic resilience. In that setting, Trump described Bitcoin as “very powerful” and said growing numbers of people now want to use crypto for payments, underscoring how sharply his public stance has shifted since 2021.

Trump Recasts U.S. Crypto Policy Around Growth

During his address, Trump said the United States would become the “undisputed crypto capital and Bitcoin superpower of the world.” The statement extended a message he has repeated as his administration tries to present itself as more supportive of digital assets than previous governments.

His current position contrasts with his 2021 description of Bitcoin as “not money” and “a scam.” Regardless, since returning to office for a second term, he has taken a more supportive tone and linked crypto policy to national competitiveness. That shift has become a notable part of his economic messaging.

Beyond rhetoric, Trump pointed to policy actions that signaled a more formal role for crypto in the financial system. He signed an executive order establishing a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve and also supported the U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile. Those measures were presented as signs that his administration wants digital assets treated as part of the broader financial infrastructure.

Legislative Push Centers on Regulatory Clarity

Trump also highlighted two crypto-focused legislative efforts, the Genius Act and the Clarity Act. He said the purpose of those measures was to deliver regulatory clarity and replace what he described as a “war on crypto” with policies that encourage innovation.

That argument was framed against intensifying global competition for blockchain investment and digital asset businesses. The remarks positioned the United States as a potential destination for exchanges, mining firms, and institutional investors if clear rules and favorable policies are maintained.

The summit setting reinforced that message. FII PRIORITY Miami 2026 brought together investors and policymakers at a time when governments worldwide are competing to attract technology capital. In that context, Trump presented crypto-friendly regulation as an economic strategy rather than a niche market issue.

Bitcoin’s Market Path Adds Context to the Message

The policy push came against a backdrop of major price swings in Bitcoin. In 2024, the asset traded around its previous all-time high of $69,000. The rally later extended, with Bitcoin reaching a new record of $126,000 in October 2025 and lifting its market capitalization to $4 trillion.

According to reports, the rise was driven mainly by the launch of Bitcoin ETFs and by countries adding Bitcoin to their strategic reserves, following the U.S. taking the lead. Those developments strengthened the asset’s institutional profile and gave added weight to political efforts to frame crypto as part of national strategy.

Still, the market has remained highly sensitive to global shocks. Bitcoin was recently trading around $66,415 as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East weighed on digital assets and the broader crypto market.

Related: Bitcoin Miners Pivot to AI as Production Costs Keep Climbing

Geopolitical Tension Complicates the Crypto Narrative

The event unfolded as markets faced additional pressure from the conflict involving Iran, which raised concerns about energy supply disruptions and wider economic stability. Trump used part of his remarks to claim Iran had been “decimated” and was no longer a threat.

He said U.S. armed forces had been “annihilating” Iran and claimed the country was “begging to make a deal.” He also said Iran allowed 10 oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz as a “present” to the United States, tying his foreign policy claims to the wider market environment surrounding his crypto message.

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CoinShares afferma che l'aumento dei costi sta ora spingendo i minatori pubblici di bitcoin verso entrate da AI.

Il prezzo dell'hash più basso e i margini in contrazione stanno ora mettendo ulteriormente sotto pressione i bilanci minerari.

Le vendite di bitcoin e i carichi di debito più elevati ora finanziano un ampio passaggio verso hub di dati AI.

I minatori pubblici di Bitcoin si stanno spostando verso l'infrastruttura AI poiché i costi di estrazione superano i prezzi di mercato, secondo il rapporto di mining Q1 2026 di CoinShares. Il rapporto ha affermato che il costo medio ponderato in contante ha raggiunto circa $79,995 per bitcoin nel Q4 2025. CoinDesk ha anche stimato perdite vicine a $19,000 per BTC estratto la scorsa settimana mentre il bitcoin veniva scambiato tra $68,000 e $70,000.

Il tribunale di Singapore ha tracciato una linea legale dopo che gli attacchi online hanno seguito l'exploit di Resupply.

La sentenza ha dimostrato che le controversie DeFi possono innescare azioni legali quando la colpa pubblica diventa abusiva.

Il legame percepito di Curve con Resupply ha approfondito le conseguenze e ampliato i danni reputazionali.

Un tribunale di Singapore ha spostato una controversia cripto dalle chat di Telegram e dai post su X nei registri legali formali. Il Tribunale per la Protezione contro le Molestie ha ordinato a due individui di smettere di fare dichiarazioni minacciose o abusive riguardo al contributore di Curve Finance Haowi Wong dopo una disputa durata mesi legata all'exploit di Resupply da 9,3 milioni di dollari.

Bitcoin and ether weakened as Treasury yields stayed high and relief hopes faded.

Bond volatility overtook oil and became the market’s clearest macro source of strain.

Traders now watch yields and policy risk more closely than war-driven headlines.

Crypto prices fell again Friday as Treasury yields became the market’s main macro signal. Bitcoin traded near $68,639 and ether near $2,061.81 after a brief relief rally earlier this week faded. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield held near 4.42%, while hopes for quick Iran de-escalation weakened and traders shifted from oil headlines to tighter financial conditions. The shift left digital assets trading with the broader rates complex, not against it. 

Bond Stress Moves to the Front

The Kobeissi Letter said the market’s center of gravity had moved from the oil spike to the rates shock. Adam Kobeissi wrote that the bond market posed a bigger problem than energy prices. In a longer note, the firm said bond markets were now shaping equities, commodities, and policy. The thread gained wide circulation on X as bond volatility climbed. 

This is truly historic:

In just 27 days of the Iran War, the discussion has now become about Fed rate HIKES.

Just weeks ago, investors were debating how many rate cuts the Fed would implement in 2026.

Now? There's a 48% chance of an interest rate HIKE by January 2027.

And,… https://t.co/ccQ91LLH3g pic.twitter.com/ve2drzl4Rb

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 26, 2026

That argument matched broader market action on Thursday. Reuters reported that the White House extended its Iran deadline, yet yields did not stay down. By session end, the 10-year yield had reached 4.415%, its highest since July. The move reinforced the idea that rate pressure had overtaken the oil headline. 

Mortgage rates had already hit their highest level since October. Fed Governor Lisa Cook said the war had shifted risks toward inflation, and reports said futures markets showed essentially zero chance of a rate cut this year. That shift tightened the macro backdrop for volatile assets. Can crypto recover while yields keep rising and policy relief stays absent? 

Relief Rally Fades as Borrowing Costs Rise

The market had shown the other side of that trade on March 23. After Trump said the United States would postpone strikes and pursue talks, Reuters reported that oil prices tumbled and global stocks rebounded. Bloomberg said bitcoin rose more than 5% and touched $71,794 in New York. Risk appetite returned quickly, but the bounce proved brief. 

That move later unwound. By Friday, Bitcoin had fallen back below $69,000, and ether also traded lower as investors returned to yields, policy risk, and tighter financial conditions. Reuters also reported that the 10-year yield had climbed from 3.96% before the attacks to 4.39% by Tuesday, showing how quickly borrowing costs had reset. The relief trade lost ground as borrowing costs kept rising. 

Arthur Hayes framed the crypto angle in a shorter way on X. He wrote, “Almost there … what is Buffalo Bill Bessent going to do to calm the UST market?” Hayes referred to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in the post. That line pointed to the same issue facing traders: whether Treasury stress could force a response from Washington.

Almost there …

If Trump invades Iran what is Buffalo Bill Bessent going to do to calm the UST market? pic.twitter.com/7H2qakadgT

— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) March 26, 2026

Markets Reprice the Path Ahead

The stress was visible beyond yields. The MOVE Index stood at 115.02, up 17.86% on the day, while Reuters said rate futures reflected essentially zero chance of a cut this year. Bond-market volatility had become a market signal in its own right. That reversal followed higher oil prices, firmer inflation fears, and uncertainty over how long the conflict may last. 

Related: US Bitcoin ETFs Shed $171M as IBIT Leads Daily Outflows

Kobeissi tied the repricing to a weaker labor backdrop. The firm pointed to deep downward payroll revisions over three years and a February unemployment duration of 25.7 weeks. It also argued that markets now see rates staying largely unchanged through September 2027, reversing late-2025 debate over how many cuts 2026 would bring. That view framed the labor market as another source of macro fragility. 

For crypto desks, the watchlist now looks familiar. Traders are tracking Treasury yields, rate expectations, and the credibility of each de-escalation headline. For now, the market is watching the same dashboard across asset classes. As long as bond volatility stays elevated, bitcoin and ether may keep trading less like geopolitical hedges and more like liquidity-sensitive risk assets. 

The post Crypto Prices Drop as Bond Yields Overtake Oil Market Shock appeared first on Cryptotale.

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David Sacks lascia il ruolo di zar della crittografia della Casa Bianca dopo aver raggiunto il limite di 130 giorni

Sacks ora co-presiederà il PCAST e consiglierà Trump su IA e politica tecnologica più ampia

Il cambiamento avviene mentre la legislazione sulla crittografia negli Stati Uniti affronta ritardi e controversie sui premi delle stablecoin

David Sacks sta lasciando il suo incarico di consigliere speciale del Presidente Donald Trump sull'intelligenza artificiale e la crittografia dopo aver raggiunto il limite di 130 giorni per i dipendenti governativi speciali. Secondo i rapporti, la Casa Bianca manterrà il zar David Sacks nella sua orbita tecnologica ma in un nuovo ruolo che amplia il suo incarico oltre la politica crittografica.

ARK Invest utilizzerà i dati di Kalshi per monitorare le probabilità di mercato, i KPI, le approvazioni e i traguardi tecnologici.

La partnership aggiunge mercati delle previsioni alla ricerca, copertura e pianificazione del rischio basata su eventi.

La mossa di ARK arriva mentre la Fed e Cornell studiano i mercati degli eventi e i regolatori valutano nuove regole.

ARK Invest sta incorporando i dati del mercato delle previsioni di Kalshi nel suo processo di ricerca, segnando un nuovo caso d'uso istituzionale per strumenti una volta considerati principalmente attraverso la lente dell'attività di trading. Questa mossa posiziona le probabilità di mercato in tempo reale accanto ai metodi di ricerca esistenti della società mentre i gestori patrimoniali cercano segnali più rapidi su eventi macro, traguardi aziendali e risultati politici.

Gli ETF Bitcoin statunitensi hanno registrato un deflusso di $171,22 milioni mentre le vendite del 26 marzo si sono ampliate drasticamente.

L'IBIT di BlackRock ha guidato i prelievi, anche se la sua base di afflussi a lungo termine è rimasta dominante.

Ampie rimborsi si sono diffusi tra gli emittenti mentre le attività totali si sono mantenute vicino a $88,36 miliardi complessivi.

Gli ETF Bitcoin spot statunitensi hanno registrato un deflusso netto di $171,22 milioni il 26 marzo, secondo SoSoValue. I prelievi si sono diffusi tra i principali emittenti, guidati da BlackRock, Bitwise, Fidelity e Grayscale. Tuttavia, gli afflussi netti cumulativi si sono attestati a $56,16 miliardi, il volume degli scambi giornalieri ha raggiunto $2,49 miliardi e le attività nette totali detenute ammontano a $88,36 miliardi, pari al 6,40% della capitalizzazione di mercato di Bitcoin.

Zhou said payment quality rests on user fit rather than sheer transactional speed.

He warned stablecoins can bypass reviews and complicate fraud recovery at scale.

He said blockchain deserves debate, yet its utility must fit real payment needs.

Former PBOC governor Zhou Xiaochuan told the Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference 2026 that users, not one metric, should judge a payment system. He also called for stronger anti-money laundering controls and warned that stablecoins can evade compliance checks, according to a Caixin report cited by TechFlow. What makes a payment system truly fit for purpose? 

Fit Matters More Than Speed

Zhou said instant payment alone does not make a payment network good. In his view, speed or one performance indicator cannot settle the question of quality. He framed the issue around whether a system works well in real conditions and serves its intended users. 

Instead, he said the key test is “fit,” meaning alignment with user needs and real-world requirements. That standard, in turn, should guide how policymakers and operators assess new payment tools. It also places actual use above technical slogans or headline performance claims. 

He also said peer-to-peer design or decentralization should not be treated as automatic strengths. By the same measure, he said systems using correspondent banks and SWIFT messages should not be dismissed as outdated. He linked the verdict in each instance to how well the system matched users’ real-world experiences. 

AML, Fraud, and Stablecoin Risks

Zhou then turned to regulation and said that anti-money laundering work must target drug trafficking, cross-border gambling, telecom fraud, and related crimes. At the forum, several central bank governors also said digital currencies now appear in payment systems and in fraud schemes. Zhou said fraudsters are using them “quite extensively,” and he added that anti-fraud capabilities still need improvement. 

He said telecom fraud networks can move proceeds across hundreds or even thousands of accounts within moments. That structure can evade compliance checks and leave recovery efforts extremely difficult after the money moves. In that setting, he presented regulatory fit as a practical issue, not a theoretical one.

Related: PBOC Governor Warns Stablecoins Threaten Global Stability

Zhou used stablecoins as a warning point, saying they can bypass compliance reviews. He said officials and market participants should think carefully and avoid “following trends blindly.” Even so, he said cryptocurrencies and blockchain remain topics worth discussing, but only when the system fits users’ actual needs. 

His remarks also sat alongside China’s established restrictions on crypto activity. Reuters reported in 2021 that the PBOC said cryptocurrencies must not circulate and barred financial institutions, payment companies, and internet firms from facilitating crypto trading. That backdrop helps explain why Zhou separated payment utility and compliance from market hype.

At the same time, official material on e-CNY presents a different path for digital money inside a regulated system. A BIS paper says the PBOC designed e-CNY to improve payment efficiency, support retail payment infrastructure, and comply with AML and related rules. It also says the project explores cross-border payment use under regulatory requirements. 

Hong Kong’s monetary authority describes e-CNY as a digital fiat currency provided by the PBOC through a two-tier system. It says the arrangement supports cross-boundary retail payments and aims to improve efficiency and user experience. That framework mirrors the regulatory fit Zhou described at Boao. 

The post Zhou Says Good Payment Systems Must Fit Real User Needs appeared first on Cryptotale.

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La Balena Bianca ha dichiarato di aver bloccato 500 milioni di monete per sempre in un'unica transazione oggi.

È anche chiamato un piano di continuità per le operazioni di contenuto e DEX LP dopo la mossa.

La dichiarazione ha collegato la sua uscita a tensioni familiari, stress mentale e passione per le criptovalute in declino.

La Balena Bianca ha dichiarato il 26 marzo di aver bloccato permanentemente 500 milioni di dollari in monete White Whale in un'unica transazione e ha delineato un piano di continuità per i detentori. L'account ha descritto l'offerta bloccata come un impegno di 13 milioni di dollari e ha affermato che si allontanerà da CT. La dichiarazione ha collegato la mossa a una crisi familiare, al deterioramento della salute mentale e a una crescente stanchezza nei confronti delle criptovalute.