BaidenCyrus

Bank of Japan raised rates by 25 bps to 0.75%. 🇯🇵

- The highest level in 30 years.

- This is the 4th hike since ending negative rates in March 2024, and the first since January 2025.

- The rate gap with the U.S. has narrowed by 125 bps this year, now at 3.0%.

Why it matters 👇🏻

- The BoJ is tightening to fight inflation, which remains well above the 2% target.

- Officials said more hikes are likely if growth, wages, and inflation continue as expected.

- Underlying inflation is still gradually rising.

Market reaction 👇🏻

- Japan’s 10-year yield rose above 2% for the first time in nearly 20 years.

- The decision was fully expected and passed unanimously.

- Governor Ueda struck a cautious tone: real rates are still negative, conditions remain loose, and future hikes will be slow and data-dependent.

Markets took it well 👇🏻

- USD/JPY edged higher, Nikkei steady, risk assets supported.

- No signs of carry-trade stress or hawkish surprise.

- Event risk passed smoothly, a mild relief rally.

WHAT IF THE REAL ALTSEASON STARTS FROM JAN 2026?

Look at this chart first.

OTHERS dominance chart shows where altcoins usually bottom and where big alt cycles start.

Right now, OTHERS dominance is sitting very close to the same base zone where it bottomed in the past:

- In 2017 before the big altcoin rum.

- In 2020 before the 2021 alt season.

MACD is flattening and RSI is at historical bottom zone, similar setups in the past appeared before multi-year expansions in alt dominance.

This alone suggests altcoins are much closer to a bottom than a top.

Now let’s connect this with history.

In September 2019, the Fed clearly said it would end QT. Around the same time:

• OTHERS dominance bottomed

• In October 2019, the Fed started buying $60B per month in T-bills

• By March 2020, this slowly turned into full QE

From that point:

- Altcoins kept trending

- The cycle topped only in early 2022, when the Fed again hinted tightening

Now look at the last 4 years.
Altcoins kept falling or staying weak, even though Bitcoin went up strongly from its bottom.

The reason was simple:

- The Fed was draining liquidity

- Liquidity drain always hurts altcoins the most

But this phase is changing again.
What’s different now?

• The Fed has already started injecting liquidity again.

• T-bill buying starts now, around $40B per month.

• This is not full QE yet, but liquidity support has clearly begun.

Markets are also looking ahead.
Why?

Because, the market is expecting major liquidity catalysts.

• Corporate tax cuts are being discussed, which improves earnings and boost stock prices

• Plans like a $2,000 dividend check are being talked about, another liquidity event

• A new Fed Chair is expected, and markets see a more growth-focused approach

Even on rate cuts:

The dot plot shows only 1-2 cuts

But remember, Powell indirectly said no rate cuts for December but it happened anyway.

That happened because:

- The economy is not strong

- If the economy was healthy, the Fed would not be buying T-bills at all

This matters a lot for altcoins.

🚨THE REASON BEHIND TODAY'S DUMP.

The Bank of Japan is set to hike rates next week on Dec 19th.

It's also expected that the BOJ will do more rate hikes in 2026.

Last time Japan raised rates, Bitcoin and crypto market dumped really hard. So the market is now already pricing in the negative news.

$BTC

$BTC From a liquidity perspective, the main area to watch remains $97K-$98K.

But price has been rejected from the $94K area for several weeks now.

Once that breakout above $94K holds, I think the move from there will be pretty shift. But until that happens, it's good to just be patient and not get chopped up with all these bart moves in this range.

Binance sta comprando di nuovo.
Coinbase sta vendendo di nuovo.

Qualcosa è cambiato dopo che CZ ha detto che potremmo vedere un superciclo.

SUMMARY OF FED DECISION (12/10/2025):

1. Fed cuts rates by 25 bps in 3rd rate cut of 2025

2. Fed will consider "extend and timing" of additional adjustments

3. Fed will begin purchasing US Treasury Bills on December 12th

4. Fed will buy $40 billion of US Treasury bills in 30 days

5. FOMC members Schmid and Goolsbee dissent in favor of no change

6. Fed signals rate cuts may be done for now

Fed Chair Powell may be halting rate cuts again.

The Fed cut rates by 25 bps at the FOMC meeting.

All eyes on Powell's speech now.

BITCOIN'S DIRTY SECRET: THE HALVING NEVER MATTERED

After 16 years and 4 halvings, the data is finally conclusive.

Every single post-halving rally in Bitcoin history coincided with major central bank liquidity events. Not one can be isolated.

- 2012 halving: Cyprus banking crisis.
- 2016 halving: Post-QE environment, ICO boom.
- 2020 halving: Fed balance sheet doubled to $9 trillion. - 2024 halving: ETFs front-ran it. Price peaked BEFORE the event.

The correlation between Bitcoin and Global M2 money supply: 0.94.
The correlation between halvings and price with only 4 data points: statistically meaningless.

August 2024 proved everything.
Bank of Japan raised rates 0.15%.
Bitcoin crashed 25% in 72 hours.
One billion dollars liquidated.
300,000 traders wiped out.

That was not a halving. That was liquidity.

But here is what nobody is discussing.

Transaction fees represent 1 to 4 percent of miner revenue. The block subsidy funds 96 percent of network security. Every halving cuts that subsidy in half.

Princeton University research conclusion: "No proof-of-work currency has ever operated solely on transaction fees."

Satoshi himself hedged: "There will PROBABLY always be nodes willing to process transactions."

Probably.

We are 95 percent through Bitcoin's issuance schedule. 29 halvings remain. The people who will witness the 20th halving have not been born.

The halving provides scarcity.
Liquidity provides price.
The fee transition remains completely unresolved.

US debt: $38 trillion.
Fed ended QT: December 1, 2025.
Gold all-time high: $4,371.

The next liquidity wave is coming. Watch the central banks. Not the block height.

The four-year cycle is dead.
The monetary experiment continues.
The existential question remains unanswered.

This is not bearish. This is not bullish.
This is what the evidence actually shows.
$BTC

#BNB 🔥🔥

🚨 THE FED RATE CUT DECISION IS COMING TOMMOROW.

The market already expects a 95% odds of 25 BPS rate cut. That part won’t move the markets much but the real volatility will come from liquidity signals like Powell’s tone and the Fed’s view on how they see the economy, funding conditions, and inflation.

There’s been clear liquidity stress in the system.

SOFR has been spiking, showing banks are feeling funding pressure.
Because of this, banks are expecting the Fed to announce some form of liquidity relief even a small one, to ease the stress.

If the Fed hints at QE, or providing short term liquidity support, it becomes bullish immediately:

• Funding pressure drops
• Bond yields go down
• Risk assets gets bullish momentum

The tone tomorrow will matter more than anything else.

During the last FOMC, Powell sounded hawkish and BTC dumped hard.

This time, there are 2 scenarios going into tomorrow's FOMC.

Hawkish cut:
1. Powell says inflation is still not fully under control
2. Says the labor market is improving
→ In the case, yields will spike and risk assets could dump.

Dovish cut:
1. Powell says tariff impact on inflation is minimal
2. Says the labor market is still weak
→ In this case, yields will go down, liquidity expectations will rise and crypto could pump

And if Powell adds even a hint of liquidity support on top of a dovish cut?
That’s where things can flip bullish really fast.

So the roadmap is simple:

• Dovish + liquidity support → Bullish for markets
• Dovish only → Small pump
• Hawkish cut → Market sell-off similar to October
• No liquidity help → Markets will continue sideways price action

Big Week Ahead For Crypto Holders 🚨

▫️ 9th December: JOLTs Job Openings data will be released.

▫️ 10th December: The FOMC interest rate decision and Powell's press conference will happen.

▫️ 11th December: Initial jobless claims, PPI, Core PPI and OPEC monthly report will be released.

▫️ 12th December: The Fed balance sheet will be released, and 3 Fed speakers will deliver a speech.

The most important one is obviously the FOMC interest rate decision.

A 25 BPS rate cut is almost locked, with Polymarket showing odds of 93%.

All eyes will be on Powell's press conference, as his thoughts and remarks on the economy will decide the next move.
$BTC #FOMCWatch

Good 👍

THE CYCLE INVERSION

What if 2025 was the bear market and nobody noticed?

Consider the evidence.

Bitcoin broke its all-time high BEFORE the halving for the first time in history. This was not a bull market signal. This was the cycle inverting.

2024 was not the start of a new bull run. It was political repricing. A pro-crypto administration being priced in. Nothing more.

2025 has shown every characteristic of a bear market:

Bitcoin dominance at multi-year highs while altcoins bleed to death. Three and a half billion dollars in ETF outflows in a single month. A twenty-nine percent drawdown from October highs. Extreme fear readings on sentiment indices.

The paradox that breaks every model: bear market psychology at ninety thousand dollars.

Two years ago this price was euphoric fantasy. Today it generates panic.

The four-year halving cycle is not dead. It has been absorbed. One hundred twenty billion dollars in ETF assets under management has fused Bitcoin to Federal Reserve liquidity cycles. The halving still governs supply. But demand now follows the Fed, not crypto-native narratives.

What does this inversion mean for 2026?

If the bear market already occurred disguised by nominal highs, the next phase is the actual blow-off top. One hundred fifty to two hundred thousand becomes the target as global liquidity expansion forces capital into hard assets.

The crowd is positioned for a crash that already happened.

They are fearful when they should be accumulating.

The cycle did not break. It inverted. Those who recognize the inversion will capture the next leg. Those who wait for the crash they expect will watch it leave without them.

The bear market is behind you.

Act accordingly.

BREAKING: The Federal Reserve Just Ended Quantitative Tightening. What Comes Next Changes Everything.

While markets obsess over rate cuts, Wall Street’s sharpest minds are focused elsewhere.

The real story: Fed officials are expected to announce Reserve Management Purchases at the December 10 FOMC meeting, initiating $20 to $40 billion in monthly Treasury bill acquisitions starting January 2026.

They will not call it Quantitative Easing.

But the math speaks for itself.

At the upper range, this injects $480 billion in fresh liquidity annually into a financial system where bank reserves just touched $3 trillion, their lowest level since the repo crisis of 2019.

Evercore ISI projects $35 billion monthly. UBS forecasts $40 billion. Goldman Sachs expects $20 billion net. The spread reveals uncertainty. The direction reveals intent.

Three years of balance sheet reduction. $2.4 trillion drained from markets. Now the tide reverses.

The mechanism is elegant: maturing mortgage backed securities, running off at $15 to $19 billion monthly, get reinvested into short duration T-bills. Duration shortens. Liquidity expands. The Fed maintains plausible deniability.

Mark Cabana of Bank of America warns investors are “underestimating” what the balance sheet announcement will deliver. Above $40 billion signals accommodation. Below $30 billion signals restraint.

The repo market already knows. SOFR rates have repeatedly breached the Fed’s policy corridor ceiling. The banking system is signaling: reserves are shifting from abundant to adequate, with scarcity looming.

For risk assets, this changes the calculus.

For inflation hawks, this raises the specter of policy error.

For those paying attention, this is the pivot hiding in plain sight.

December 10. Watch the implementation notes.

The era of tighthat ended. The era of managed expansion begins.
#ETHBreaksATH

BREAKING: The United States Just Ended the Offshore Crypto Era

December 4, 2025.

The CFTC has authorized spot Bitcoin and cryptocurrency trading on federally regulated exchanges for the first time in American history.

Read that again.

For fifteen years, the agency refused to provide regulatory clarity. Americans were forced offshore. They traded on platforms with no customer protections. FTX collapsed. Billions vanished. Retail investors were decimated.

That era is over.

Acting Chairman Caroline Pham invoked existing Commodity Exchange Act authority requiring leveraged retail commodity trading occur only on futures exchanges. No new legislation. No Congressional delay. Immediate implementation.

Bitnomial goes live December 9. Leveraged spot. Perpetuals. Futures. Options. Portfolio margining. One venue. Full federal oversight.

The structural implications are staggering.

Cross margining between spot and derivatives could compress capital requirements by 30 to 50 percent. Institutional barriers dissolve overnight. Pension funds. Banks. Sovereign wealth. All now have compliant access to spot crypto on platforms that have operated as the gold standard for nearly a century.

Pham stated the goal explicitly: Make America the crypto capital of the world.

This is not rhetoric. This is infrastructure.

The SEC and CFTC issued joint guidance in September. The President’s Working Group on Digital Asset Markets provided the roadmap. Tokenized collateral including stablecoins is next. Blockchain settlement frameworks are in development.

Watch for Bitnomial volumes exceeding one billion monthly by Q1 2026. Watch for CME integration announcements. Watch for offshore exchange user migration accelerating through H1.

The question is no longer whether America leads digital asset markets.

The question is how fast capital repositions.

Fifteen years of regulatory ambiguity.

Resolved in one announcement.

The new financial architecture has begun.
$BTC

THEY TOLD YOU ALTSEASON IS DEAD

They are asking the wrong question.

The crypto market you knew no longer exists.

In 2025, it quietly split into two completely separate games. Different rules. Different players. Different winners.

And almost no one noticed.

GAME ONE: INSTITUTIONAL CRYPTO

Bitcoin. Ethereum. ETF assets. Quarterly cycles. Pension funds and advisors setting prices. Volatility crushed from 84% to 43%. Time horizon: months.

GAME TWO: ATTENTION CRYPTO

37 million tokens. 36,000 new ones launching daily. 98.6% collapse below $1,000 liquidity. 75% dead within 24 hours. Survival rate: 1.4%. Time horizon: hours.

Here is what should terrify you:

Major altcoin/BTC ratios have returned to December 2020 levels.

Five years of building. Partnerships. Ecosystems. Narratives.

Zero progress against Bitcoin.

The transparency paradox destroyed everything. When every wallet, every transaction, every accumulation is visible instantly, information edge vanishes. Only speed remains. Milliseconds, not conviction. Algorithms, not analysis.

Capital no longer rotates from Bitcoin to alts.

It flows directly to whichever game the mandate specifies.

Traditional altseason probability: 10 to 15 percent.

Not because speculation died.

Because the unified market that altseason required has been structurally dismantled.

Your only choices now:

Play Institutional Crypto with patience and macro awareness.

Or play Attention Crypto with speed and infrastructure.

The middle ground, holding altcoins on thesis for months, is now the worst possible strategy.

You are not early to altseason.

You are waiting for a market structure that no longer exists.

The $ETH Fusaka upgrade will enable validators to manage transaction sequencing for the Layer-2 network, boosting economic activity and potentially increasing MEV and rewards for ETH stakers.

$BTC has reached a major resistance zone.

A reclaim of the $93,000-$94,000 zone will push Bitcoin towards $100,000.

If Bitcoin gets rejected, it'll drop towards the $88,000-$89,000 level.