fomc‬⁩

Today, the most uncomfortable market diagnosis came from an unexpected source. Robert Mitchnick, head of digital assets at BlackRock, said that AI is "sucking all the oxygen out of the room" for Bitcoin — and institutional investors are prioritizing AI over crypto. $BTC dropped to $62,325 this morning, down -4.67% in 24 hours, with the Fear & Greed at 20 (Extreme Fear). Wintermute summed it up: "Funnels aren't flowing" — the market has the cleanest leverage of the cycle, but there's no new buying demand. Spot ETFs recorded $68M in outflows yesterday. The May PCE comes out tomorrow, Thursday.

Six meetings. Six drops. The streak is so consistent at this point that I think the only honest conversation is about what actually changes it rather than pretending it might just reverse on its own.
Since October 2025, $BTC #Bitcoin has fallen after every single FOMC meeting: October down 30.21%, December down 9.99%, January down 32.77%, March down 13.67%, April down 27.72%, and June adding another 2-3% dip before the Iran deal bounce. The rate decision itself almost never matters — the last five were all holds. What matters is everything around the decision, the language, the dot plot, the communication, the market's interpretation of forward signals.
Anthony Scaramucci, CEO of Skybridge, remains firmly bullish on Bitcoin and crypto, emphasizing that he continues to hold a significant position. While acknowledging the current lack of enthusiasm across the market, he views the widespread apathy as a potential opportunity rather than a warning sign. Scaramucci expects Bitcoin to begin rallying in late 2026 and continue into early 2027. CoinCodex
What would actually break the pattern? I think there are three scenarios and only three.
One: oil falls enough post-Iran deal that the next CPI print comes in materially softer, and the July FOMC becomes genuinely neutral rather than hawkish. That gives $BTC #Bitcoin its first FOMC event in over a year that doesn't carry a "higher for longer" signal attached to it.
Two: ETF inflows sustain for multiple consecutive weeks rather than alternating between positive and negative. Sustained institutional re-entry through the ETF wrapper would change the underlying demand structure enough to absorb hawkish Fed language without cascading down.
Three: Warsh gives a genuinely surprising dovish signal at a future meeting that the market hasn't pre-priced, catching short sellers off-guard and triggering the kind of short squeeze that sends $BTC #Bitcoin up 10% in a day.
None of those three things is certain. But at least one of them is probably necessary before this FOMC-correlated drop pattern finally ends.
$BTC #Bitcoin #FOMC‬⁩ C #MacroTrading #Fed
DYOR. Not financial advice

The market often reacts to what the Federal Reserve does, but sometimes what policymakers say can be just as important.
This week, Kevin Warsh emphasized that the Federal Reserve is "unambiguously and unanimously" committed to bringing inflation back to its 2% target. He also pointed out that current inflation pressures are being driven largely by supply shocks rather than a collapse in monetary discipline.
For crypto investors, this statement deserves attention.
Why the 2% Target Matters
The Fed's 2% inflation target isn't just an arbitrary number. It's the foundation of monetary policy and a key factor influencing interest rates, liquidity, and investor risk appetite.
When inflation remains above target, central banks tend to keep financial conditions tighter. Higher rates can reduce liquidity in financial markets, often creating headwinds for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
On the other hand, if inflation gradually moves toward 2%, markets may begin pricing in a more accommodative environment down the road.
The Supply Shock Argument
Warsh's comments highlight an important distinction.
If inflation is being driven primarily by supply-side factors—such as disruptions in energy, shipping, manufacturing, or global trade—then traditional monetary tools have limited influence over the root cause.
This means the path back to 2% inflation may not be perfectly smooth.
For investors, that creates a market environment where inflation data releases remain critical. A single report can shift expectations for future policy and trigger volatility across stocks, bonds, and crypto.
What This Means for Bitcoin and Crypto
Bitcoin has increasingly become a macro asset.
Gone are the days when crypto traded in complete isolation from global financial markets. Today, inflation expectations, Federal Reserve policy, and liquidity conditions all play a role in shaping market sentiment.
If investors gain confidence that inflation is trending toward 2%, risk appetite could improve. More liquidity and lower uncertainty have historically been supportive for growth assets.
However, if inflation proves stubborn and remains elevated, markets may face additional periods of volatility as expectations for monetary easing get pushed further into the future.
My Take
What stands out to me is not just the Fed's commitment, but the confidence behind the message.
An "unambiguous and unanimous" commitment signals that policymakers want markets to believe inflation control remains their top priority. Whether they achieve that goal quickly or slowly is another question entirely.
As crypto investors, our job isn't to predict every Fed move. It's to understand the broader macro landscape and position ourselves accordingly.
The next few inflation reports could be more important than many traders realize. They won't just influence traditional markets—they could shape the direction of crypto sentiment for months ahead.
Stay informed, stay patient, and remember that in today's market, macro matters more than ever.
#Bitcoin #CryptoMarket #FederalReserve #Inflation #FOMC‬⁩ #MacroEconomics #BTC☀ #CryptoNews