The contract at $NOK pumped straight to 16.9 today, up 10% in the last 24 hours. In US stocks, that might not sound outrageous, but in traditional manufacturing stocks, that's enough to make the shorts sweat. I just took a quick look at the funding rate, 0.00403950, which annualizes over 35%. The bulls are pushing it to extremes, and the holding costs are so high that the shorts are cashing in comfortably.
I've seen this kind of rise + positive funding combo way too many times. The bulls are so crowded that they’re essentially adding costs to themselves, like running uphill with weights. Once the buy pressure stops, the funding pressure will flip into selling pressure. With an open interest of 5.56 million, it shows there are still a lot of people stuck here waiting for direction.
I’ve been looking at Trump's tariff comments over the weekend, and companies like Nokia, reliant on transatlantic supply chains, are directly affected. Political rhetoric doesn’t change the fundamentals; it just activates volatility expectations. In contract trading, we don’t need to know if the tariffs will actually be implemented, just that Trump could speak up again at any moment in the next week. The last time we saw a similar setup was at the beginning of the year with European auto stocks, where extreme funding costs led to a brutal 8% intraday reversal for those who chased the long too late.
I won’t be chasing longs at this position. The risk-reward isn’t in favor of the bulls.
Trading Tags: #BinanceFutures #TradFi #USDⓈM #NOK #NOKUSDT $NOK
I've seen this kind of rise + positive funding combo way too many times. The bulls are so crowded that they’re essentially adding costs to themselves, like running uphill with weights. Once the buy pressure stops, the funding pressure will flip into selling pressure. With an open interest of 5.56 million, it shows there are still a lot of people stuck here waiting for direction.
I’ve been looking at Trump's tariff comments over the weekend, and companies like Nokia, reliant on transatlantic supply chains, are directly affected. Political rhetoric doesn’t change the fundamentals; it just activates volatility expectations. In contract trading, we don’t need to know if the tariffs will actually be implemented, just that Trump could speak up again at any moment in the next week. The last time we saw a similar setup was at the beginning of the year with European auto stocks, where extreme funding costs led to a brutal 8% intraday reversal for those who chased the long too late.
I won’t be chasing longs at this position. The risk-reward isn’t in favor of the bulls.
Trading Tags: #BinanceFutures #TradFi #USDⓈM #NOK #NOKUSDT $NOK