xrppriceanalysis

$XRP has spent nearly 70 days below the pivotal 50-week SMA, with historical data triggering bullish expectations for the future.
The broader crypto market has continued to face bearish pressure since early October, with the global crypto market cap losing over $1.38 trillion worth of value within this period. Amid this downward pressure, XRP has fallen victim to the bears as well, having contributed $71.66 billion to the broader market loss.
After holding above the $2 support for most of the downtrend, XRP eventually gave up this level on Dec. 14, leading to steeper declines. However, market analyst Steph (@Steph_iscrypto) believes XRP may only be building strength for a breakout, as it observes a pattern that has historically led to massive price surges.

In his latest analysis, Steph confirmed that XRP has been trading below the crucial 50-week simple moving average (SMA) since this downward push began. While this indicates intense bearish pressure, XRP often stages impressive explosive rallies after spending an elongated period of time, specifically 50 to 84 days, below this moving average.
✨A Persistent Trend
Data from Steph’s weekly XRP chart confirms that this pattern has played out three times since 2018. Notably, after XRP collapsed from the $3.31 peak in January 2018, it entered a bearish phase.
As the downward push persisted, XRP eventually broke below the 50W SMA in early June 2018 and remained underneath it for 10 weekly bars or 70 days, with its lowest price being $0.2450 during this period. After this, it soared to $0.764 in September 2018, representing a 211.8% rise from the $0.2450 low.
In 2021, a similar trend played out. Specifically, XRP slumped below the 50W SMA in December 2021 and traded underneath the moving average for 49 days. After it recovered, what followed was a spike to $0.9127 by February 2022, representing a 68% rise from the $0.5461 floor price during the downtrend.
The last time this pattern occurred was in 2024. Again, XRP dropped below the 50W SMA in April 2024 and stayed below the mark for 84 days. The recovery that ensued on the back of Donald Trump’s election victory pushed prices to the $3.66 peak in July 2025. This marked an 857% rise from the $0.3824 bottom within the downtrend.
✨XRP Repeating History?
After maintaining a price above the 50W SMA for most of this year, XRP slumped below it again in October 2025 and has now spent 10 weekly bars under it. This translates to 66 days, with four more days left before the close of this week. If XRP replicates the duration of the 2024 trend, it could continue to underperform until the end of December 2024, aligning with 84 days.
However, if the pattern repeats, another 857% explosion would push the XRP price to $17.3 from the $1.81 floor price during the ongoing downtrend. Even if XRP only managed to record half of the 2024/2025 run, amounting to a 428% increase, this would still lead to a $9.55 peak, representing a new all-time high. Nonetheless, there’s no guarantee history will repeat.
Meanwhile, analyst Chart Nerd pointed out that most XRP indicators now point to a potential bottom, indicating that a recovery could be imminent. Specifically, the RSI has moved to an oversold position, and the MACD has built a firm foundation. In addition, the RSI is compressing, with the 5-wave structure completed.

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$XRP XRP has been navigating a period of heightened volatility, leaving traders searching for clues about potential reversals. Amid this extended downside pressure, subtle shifts in momentum and price structure are increasingly capturing attention. These technical signals often reveal more about near-term market dynamics than headline news or short-term sentiment swings.
This focus on deeper analysis was recently highlighted by ChartNerd, whose update on XRP’s daily chart examines a multi-week technical setup. By comparing price action with momentum indicators, ChartNerd identifies signals that could suggest exhaustion of selling pressure and the potential for a near-term relief bounce.
✨Understanding the Bullish Divergence
At the heart of the analysis is a maturing bullish divergence. XRP’s price has been forming lower lows, most recently approaching the $2.03 support region. Simultaneously, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been creating higher lows, holding around 34. This divergence between price and momentum is a classic indication that bearish pressure is weakening, even as price continues to decline.

Bullish divergence does not automatically guarantee a reversal. Instead, it reflects a growing imbalance between sellers and buyers, where the momentum of the downtrend is slowing and bears may be losing control. For traders, it represents a potential early signal of a corrective bounce rather than a confirmed trend change.
✨The Role of Trendline Support
A critical factor in the current setup is the lower-low trendline, which marks a key structural support on XRP’s daily chart. The price has been approaching this trendline, offering a potential touchpoint for buyers to enter or for sellers to hesitate. Respect for this support zone would reinforce the bullish divergence and increase the likelihood of a relief bounce.
Trendline support is particularly significant because it provides a clear visual marker for risk management. Holding above this level suggests that the bullish divergence remains valid, while a decisive break could indicate a continuation of the downtrend.
✨Candlestick Signals and Market Context
Recent candlestick patterns add further context to the setup. A hammer candle has appeared near the lower-low trendline, a formation often associated with rejection of lower prices and potential reversal. While a single candlestick cannot confirm a trend change, its alignment with both the divergence and trendline support strengthens the case for a near-term bounce.
This combination of factors—divergence, trendline support, and reversal candlesticks—creates a confluence that traders often look for when anticipating relief rallies.
✨Invalidation Points to Watch
Despite these encouraging signals, the setup includes clear invalidation criteria. A break of RSI below 30 would suggest renewed bearish momentum, while a drop under $1.85 without a corrective bounce would weaken the support structure. Monitoring these levels allows traders to define risk and separate a potential rebound from continued downtrend activity.
✨What This Means for XRP Holders
The current configuration indicates that XRP may be nearing a critical juncture. If trendline support holds and momentum continues to stabilize, a short-term relief bounce could emerge, driven by dip-buying and short-covering. Conversely, failure to maintain support would delay any rebound and leave the market vulnerable to further declines.
For now, the bullish divergence highlights a market where selling pressure may be exhausting, signaling the possibility of a near-term upside reaction. Traders and investors should watch key support and momentum levels closely, as these will likely determine XRP’s path in the coming sessions.

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$XRP Levi Rietveld, creator of Crypto Crusaders, has taken a firm stance against extreme price predictions for XRP. He is focused on challenging projections he views as mathematically impossible, reminding the community to stay grounded and have reasonable expectations for XRP.
In a recent post, he rejected the idea that XRP could reach $10,000 by 2026. His reasoning centered on capital availability. He stated that there aren’t enough dollars in the world for XRP to reach $10,000 in 2026. He followed with a blunt assessment, writing, “It’s quite literally impossible.”

✨Supply, Liquidity, and Capital Limits
XRP has a large supply of tokens. That fact alone defines its valuation ceiling. With tens of billions of tokens in the open market, price targets scale rapidly into total market value. Ripple also controls a large portion through escrow, holding roughly 34 billion tokens according to Rietveld.
That design prevents infinite dilution. While it does not remove valuation limits, XRP’s total valuation would require tens of trillions of dollars in capital if it reached $10,000.
At $10,000 per XRP, the implied valuation would exceed global money supply estimates by a wide margin. Rietveld argued that absorbing inflows at that scale would require a global capital reallocation with no historical precedent. Bank adoption would not close that gap. ETF inflows would not either.
Liquidity must come from existing capital already tied to equities, bonds, real estate, and sovereign debt. He also cited macro limits. Global GDP growth near 2.5% to 3% and a potential $6 trillion crypto market cap make such valuations implausible.
✨Historical Performance and Market Behavior
Rietveld reinforced his case with historical context. XRP’s all-time high is well below $4, and during the 2025 crypto boom, it failed to hold above $2.50 for long periods. Past performance does not guarantee future results, but it establishes behavioral boundaries.
He also addressed adoption narratives. Even under highly bullish market scenarios, such as XRP ETFs hitting $1 billion in inflows, sustained price expansion would still depend on regulatory stability and deeper DeFi integration.
✨Calling Out High Profile Forecasts
Rietveld specifically challenged $10,000 XRP price predictions from crypto commentator Jake Claver. Rietveld rejected those figures, with the image showing a 0% chance of XRP reaching Claver’s target. Rietveld sees $3 to $5 predictions from Changelly as the more realistic scenario.
Rietveld’s criticism focused on probability rather than opinion. He previously called out Claver and has now stated that anyone promoting such targets “hasn’t done their homework.” Even aggressive institutional adoption would not supply the capital required to support a $10,000 price within that timeframe.

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$XRP The cryptocurrency market often defies conventional expectations, leaving traders scrambling to interpret sudden movements. XRP, in particular, has demonstrated resilience and predictable patterns that contradict the idea that the market is in a bear phase. While short-term sentiment fluctuates, disciplined analysis reveals deeper trends shaping XRP’s trajectory, suggesting that long-term opportunities remain intact.
In a recent post on X, crypto analyst Dark Defender highlighted the accuracy of his prior forecasts and outlined the next expected price target for XRP. According to Dark Defender, meticulous monitoring of XRP’s monthly Wave 4 pattern has allowed him to anticipate price swings and provide a roadmap for navigating volatility. The analyst’s commentary underscores the value of structured technical analysis over reactive speculation.
✨Historical Accuracy of Wave Analysis
Dark Defender has been tracking XRP’s monthly Wave 4 since February 13, 2025, providing a clear framework for understanding the token’s price movements. In April, he identified $1.88 as a critical support level, with XRP touching $1.60 during Wave A. By July, Wave B saw XRP climb toward $3.66, aligning closely with his $3.80 target. This consistent forecasting reinforces the reliability of applying Elliott Wave principles to XRP.

Wave C, according to Dark Defender, has now concluded near the $1.88 support, effectively completing the corrective phase of Wave 4. These precise observations illustrate the advantage of using systematic technical frameworks rather than relying solely on market sentiment or fear-driven narratives.
✨Market Psychology and the Importance of Discipline
Dark Defender emphasized that emotional discipline is crucial in volatile markets. Traders often react to price swings with fear or panic, while structured approaches reward patience. As he noted, “The Dark’s Side stayed calm not only on the way up towards $3.66 but also on the way back down.” By following a defined plan, traders can navigate corrections strategically, avoiding impulsive decisions that undermine long-term outcomes.
The analyst identified the trading zone of $2.2222 to $1.8815 as a key area of focus, which has proven accurate in both accumulation and correction phases. This zone serves as a guideline for managing risk and positioning for the next upward wave, illustrating how preparation can turn market volatility into opportunity.
✨The Next Target and Long-Term Outlook
Looking ahead, Dark Defender projects XRP’s next significant price target at $5.85. While he cautions that market timing may vary, the forecast reflects the belief that XRP is not in a bear market and that institutional adoption and liquidity improvements will support gradual upward momentum.
This perspective highlights a broader trend: XRP’s behavior aligns with systematic technical patterns rather than short-term sentiment swings. As adoption grows and market structures evolve, informed traders can leverage these patterns to anticipate opportunities, accumulating strategically rather than chasing price spikes.
Dark Defender’s approach demonstrates that discipline, planning, and technical rigor can provide a significant advantage in the crypto markets. By understanding wave structures, maintaining composure during corrections, and adhering to predefined zones, traders are positioned to benefit from XRP’s long-term trajectory while minimizing exposure to emotional trading pitfalls.

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$XRP The XRP market is once again at a psychological crossroads. Price volatility has returned, sentiment is divided, and traders are watching key levels with growing intensity. After months of sharp rallies, corrections, and consolidation, the token is approaching a phase where fear and opportunity tend to overlap. Historically, this is where decisive moves are born.
Against this backdrop, a bold forecast circulating across crypto social media has reignited debate. Crypto Bull, a widely followed technical analyst on X, recently shared a forward-looking XRP outlook that is gaining traction among market participants.
His projection outlines a near-term downside phase before a powerful upside expansion unfolds over the coming year.

✨Short-Term Weakness and Market Structure
Crypto Bull’s analysis places strong emphasis on market structure rather than emotion. According to his assessment, XRP remains vulnerable to a final corrective move toward the $1.75 region. This level aligns with historically significant liquidity zones and prior consolidation ranges on higher timeframes.
From a technical perspective, such a pullback would not invalidate the broader bullish trend. Instead, it would represent a reset phase designed to remove late leverage and weak hands. Similar corrective moves have occurred in previous XRP cycles before major price expansions followed.
✨Why a Deep Pullback Could Be Constructive
The projected dip is framed as a structural necessity, not a breakdown. XRP has already experienced rapid appreciation during the current cycle, and sustained rallies rarely occur without deeper retracements. A move to $1.75 would also coincide with key Fibonacci retracement levels monitored by institutional and algorithmic traders.
Market data continues to show strong long-term holding behavior, with large wallets maintaining positions despite volatility. This suggests that downside moves are increasingly viewed as accumulation opportunities rather than exit points.
✨The Case for a $16 XRP by January 2026
Looking beyond the correction, Crypto Bull’s outlook turns decisively bullish. His longer-term projection targets a potential rise toward $16 by the end of January 2026, contingent on cycle continuation and broader market strength.
This forecast is supported by historical XRP cycle behavior, where explosive rallies often follow extended consolidation and final shakeouts. It also aligns with expectations of renewed capital inflows into high-liquidity altcoins once Bitcoin dominance peaks.
✨Fundamental Tailwinds Supporting the Thesis
Beyond technicals, XRP’s fundamentals remain materially stronger than in prior cycles. Ripple’s expanding payment corridors, growing institutional partnerships, and increased clarity following the conclusion of its legal battle with the SEC have reshaped XRP’s market profile.
Additionally, the maturation of on-chain liquidity solutions and stablecoin infrastructure has improved XRP’s utility narrative. These factors provide a stronger foundation for sustained upside if market conditions cooperate.
✨Final Thoughts
While no price prediction is guaranteed, Crypto Bull’s projection reflects a disciplined, cycle-based approach rather than hype-driven optimism. A temporary drop to $1.75 may test investor conviction, but history shows that XRP’s most aggressive rallies often begin when sentiment is weakest.
As always, market participants are advised to monitor price action closely and separate long-term structure from short-term noise.

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$XRP Crypto analyst ChartNerd (@ChartNerdTA) has drawn attention to XRP at a moment where its technical structure faces a clear test. In a recent post, he shared a weekly chart highlighting that the asset remains inside a bullish Gaussian Channel, but barely.
Its price has slipped beneath a key regression level, placing added importance on multi-month support that has held the market together through recent volatility.
While the broader trend still points higher, ChartNerd made it clear that failure to reclaim $2.15 would shift focus toward lower support. This has set the stage for a decisive move in the coming weeks.

✨XRP’s Core Levels
ChartNerd stated that “XRP’s weekly Gaussian Channel remains in a bullish uptrend.” That sets the foundation, as the larger trend has not broken. The asset still respects the upward structure formed earlier in the cycle. However, the analyst also warned that the “multi-month support needs to be held.”
The chart shows this support zone just above $2. XRP currently trades below the middle regression band of the Gaussian Channel, which sits near $2.15. That level now acts as resistance rather than support. ChartNerd stressed the importance of reclaiming it. He wrote that the market “MUST reclaim the middle regression band.”
This is not a casual threshold, because the middle band often separates trend continuation from deeper pullbacks. Staying below it shifts control toward sellers in the short term, even if the higher trend stays intact.
✨What the Chart Structure Shows
The weekly candles reveal a gradual pullback from the recent highs. XRP has compressed toward the lower half of the Gaussian Channel. The lower regression band sits near $1.56. The $2 level has become a crucial support, and $1.56 is the downside target if support fails.
The chart visually supports this view. The digital asset has already tested the multi-month support line once. Another failure would weaken confidence in the level. The Gaussian Channel itself still slopes upward, signaling that trend strength remains present.
✨What Comes Next for XRP?
ChartNerd’s analysis presents two scenarios. A weekly close back above $2.15 would place XRP inside the stronger half of the channel again. That would suggest buyers regained control, and it will reinforce the bullish outlook.
Failure to do so keeps pressure on the support. A breakdown below the multi-month level would likely send the price toward $1.56. That area aligns with the lower regression band and represents the deepest pullback still consistent with a bullish channel.

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Crypto analyst Steph Is Crypto has issued a technical update on the state of the $XRP market, warning that while significant upside may still be ahead, investors should be aware that the current cycle may be entering its final phase.
In a detailed video shared on social media, Steph examined multiple indicators, focusing on both bullish and bearish scenarios, and underlined the importance of watching key historical metrics.
Steph began the analysis by referencing the Altcoin Season Index, a tool frequently used to gauge whether altcoins are currently overbought or undervalued relative to Bitcoin. The index is measured on a scale from 0 to 100, where readings below 25 typically indicate undervaluation in a Bitcoin-dominated market, while readings above 75 suggest overvaluation.
According to Steph, the index is currently at 39, which remains well below the overbought level. This, in Steph’s view, indicates that there is still considerable room for growth in the altcoin market, including $XRP .

✨XRP Trading Around Key Support Levels
Turning to XRP specifically, Steph highlighted that the asset has been trading in a range since the end of 2024, oscillating around the $3 mark. Steph noted that XRP is attempting to establish $3 as a support level, occasionally dipping slightly below and then recovering.
From a technical perspective, this consolidation phase could be interpreted as a constructive pattern, particularly given that XRP appears to be converting previous resistance into support.
The analyst also emphasized the significance of a long-term upward trend line that has been in effect since 2021. Steph believes that a breakout above this trend line could trigger a sharp price acceleration.
On the two-week chart, Steph identified a long-term trend line that has seen multiple rejections in the past. According to the analysis, if XRP can break above this resistance line, a strong upward move could follow.
In addition, Steph pointed to a recent golden cross. The last golden cross occurred in September 2024 and was followed by short-term volatility but ultimately led to a major rally. Steph argued that the current golden cross could again signal a bullish outcome in the mid-term.
🚀🚀🚀Historical RSI Patterns Signal Caution Near $4.50 to $5.00
Steph also analyzed the weekly chart’s stochastic RSI, a momentum oscillator that has shown recurring patterns before local tops. The analyst observed that in past instances, XRP experienced local peaks shortly after the stochastic RSI hit overbought levels and then formed lower highs, leading to significant corrections.
For example, a previous bearish divergence saw XRP drop back to $1.60, resulting in a prolonged and frustrating market phase for holders.
Most recently, XRP peaked at $3.65 in July. The stochastic RSI also peaked around the same time, and Steph indicated that based on historical patterns, another push higher might be imminent, potentially reaching the $4.50 to $5.00 range.
However, Steph warned that this level could coincide with a local top and lead to a temporary pullback. The same chart patterns have previously predicted such outcomes, making it a development that market participants should not ignore.
✨Final Phase of Bullrun May Be Underway
In the final segment of the analysis, Steph referred to broader market cycles and reiterated a view previously expressed in earlier videos: the current bull run may be entering its concluding phase.
Time-wise, the analyst believes the market is nearing the end of the ongoing cycle, which could culminate in a blow-off phase marked by rapid and aggressive altcoin rallies.
While Steph remains optimistic about further price increases and maintains that altcoins, including XRP, are still undervalued, the warning is clear—investors should remain alert to historical patterns and consider the possibility that a market top may not be far off.

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