Bitcoin Investors Want a New Bottom

The Exchange Stablecoins Ratio (ASR) essentially shows the ratio of the amount of stablecoins on exchanges to the Bitcoin reserve. Simply put, a high ratio means there are many stablecoins readily available on Binance, while a low ratio means there are fewer stablecoins and a higher BTC weighting.

Currently, this ratio has fallen to historical lows (~0.5) on the chart. This is a very important signal. Because Binance is an exchange with large investors, this directly reflects the impact of the stablecoin ratio on the markets.

This means that liquidity is weak in the market, and the stablecoin side, i.e., the money ready to buy, is very small. When this ratio drops this low, it means that the money waiting on Binance has decreased, meaning the power to make new purchases is weak. The market is full of crypto internally, but there is no buyer support from outside. The market is fully deployed, and in the past, these situations have generally resulted in a price drop. First, the BTC price hits the bottom, then buyers come in.

In the current situation, internal investors have already taken positions. Stablecoins have largely been converted to crypto. There is very little money waiting in the market. This increases the risk of exit liquidity.

When stablecoins are scarce, there won't be enough buyers to absorb the sell-off. This can make declines sharper and faster.

Looking at the chart, the ratio was high in mid-2024, indicating potential for price increase. Towards 2025, the ratio began to decline, making the price fragile even if it rose. Currently, the price is still high, but the ratio is at its lowest point. This divergence indicates a lack of liquidity to support the price. Therefore, the rise is largely driven by internal capital circulation. There is no interest from new investors. This situation is unsustainable. Resistance breakouts will be fake. Unless this ratio increases, it's not unrealistic to expect a new low. A rally won't happen until new investors say, "Okay, the market has now reached a buying level." $BTC