Pelin Ay
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Pelin Ay
Yazar/Analist/Trader
Frequent Trader
5.6 Years
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Ethereum Seems Likely to Be on the Horizon
Exchange Netflow continues to remain in positive territory. The latest data on the chart shows Netflow at +12,938 ETH. There is more ETH inflow than outflow from #Binance. Large investors are moving their assets to exchanges. Coins moved to exchanges always pose a risk for selling. Especially in recent weeks, Netflow's consistent stay above zero indicates that selling pressure has not completely disappeared. This is negative for the price.
Open Interest is rising again. OI has increased by approximately 9.9% in the last day. New money is entering the futures market. New positions are being opened. We can say there is money inflow into the futures side. However, the spot side does not look strong. If Netflow remains positive while OI is rising, #ETH is coming into the spot market for selling. Leverage is increasing in the futures side. Investors may be fleeing the spot market and moving to short positions.
GMMA bands are quite close to each other. This indicates that the trend is weakening and a sharp breakout may be coming soon.
Objectively, these data point to a negative picture in the short term. The current structure suggests that upward attempts may encounter selling pressure and volatility may increase. It seems too early to talk about a sustained uptrend before Netflow turns negative and GMMA sees a renewed upward divergence. #Ethereum $ETH
Exchange Netflow continues to remain in positive territory. The latest data on the chart shows Netflow at +12,938 ETH. There is more ETH inflow than outflow from #Binance. Large investors are moving their assets to exchanges. Coins moved to exchanges always pose a risk for selling. Especially in recent weeks, Netflow's consistent stay above zero indicates that selling pressure has not completely disappeared. This is negative for the price.
Open Interest is rising again. OI has increased by approximately 9.9% in the last day. New money is entering the futures market. New positions are being opened. We can say there is money inflow into the futures side. However, the spot side does not look strong. If Netflow remains positive while OI is rising, #ETH is coming into the spot market for selling. Leverage is increasing in the futures side. Investors may be fleeing the spot market and moving to short positions.
GMMA bands are quite close to each other. This indicates that the trend is weakening and a sharp breakout may be coming soon.
Objectively, these data point to a negative picture in the short term. The current structure suggests that upward attempts may encounter selling pressure and volatility may increase. It seems too early to talk about a sustained uptrend before Netflow turns negative and GMMA sees a renewed upward divergence. #Ethereum $ETH
📊 #Bitcoin Historical Performance in July
July has generally been one of the months that brings smiles to investors' faces in Bitcoin history.
🔹 July closed positively in 11 out of the last 14 years.
🔹 Success rate is approximately 73%.
🔹 Average July return is around 12-13%. 🔹 Strongest July: 2011 +42%
🔹 Weakest July: 2014 -9.7%
📈 Recent July performances:
• 2024 → +2.9%
• 2023 → -4.0%
• 2022 → +16.8%
• 2021 → +18.2%
• 2020 → +24.0%
• 2019 → -6.6%
• 2018 → +20.9%
• 2017 → +16.8%
Historical data shows that July is one of the strong periods for #BTC. However, it is important to remember that past performance does not guarantee future price movements.
Do you think this July tradition will continue this year? 👇
July has generally been one of the months that brings smiles to investors' faces in Bitcoin history.
🔹 July closed positively in 11 out of the last 14 years.
🔹 Success rate is approximately 73%.
🔹 Average July return is around 12-13%. 🔹 Strongest July: 2011 +42%
🔹 Weakest July: 2014 -9.7%
📈 Recent July performances:
• 2024 → +2.9%
• 2023 → -4.0%
• 2022 → +16.8%
• 2021 → +18.2%
• 2020 → +24.0%
• 2019 → -6.6%
• 2018 → +20.9%
• 2017 → +16.8%
Historical data shows that July is one of the strong periods for #BTC. However, it is important to remember that past performance does not guarantee future price movements.
Do you think this July tradition will continue this year? 👇
The Reason for Bitcoin's Decline: Small Investors
The Exchange Inflow CDD is hovering quite low at 720. After the sharp rise seen in mid-April and the small increase at the end of May, the metric has returned to its base level. We understand that long-term investors are not sending BTC to Binance. I interpret this data positively, as Binance is the exchange with the largest liquidity.
Selling is coming from short-term investors. Small investor inflows have increased sharply. The Spent Output Value Band is at its highest level in recent times, around 9.80. This means there is a high volume of transfers from wallets with a size of 0-0.01 BTC to Binance.
The latest data in the chart shows that SOPR is approximately 0.98, indicating that coins spent on-chain are changing hands at an average loss.
Based on this chart, it appears that selling pressure will continue in the short term. A strong on-chain signal to support a rise has not yet formed.
While the fact that large investors are not selling is preventing sudden drops, the horizontal negative pressure seems likely to continue. $BTC
The Exchange Inflow CDD is hovering quite low at 720. After the sharp rise seen in mid-April and the small increase at the end of May, the metric has returned to its base level. We understand that long-term investors are not sending BTC to Binance. I interpret this data positively, as Binance is the exchange with the largest liquidity.
Selling is coming from short-term investors. Small investor inflows have increased sharply. The Spent Output Value Band is at its highest level in recent times, around 9.80. This means there is a high volume of transfers from wallets with a size of 0-0.01 BTC to Binance.
The latest data in the chart shows that SOPR is approximately 0.98, indicating that coins spent on-chain are changing hands at an average loss.
Based on this chart, it appears that selling pressure will continue in the short term. A strong on-chain signal to support a rise has not yet formed.
While the fact that large investors are not selling is preventing sudden drops, the horizontal negative pressure seems likely to continue. $BTC
🐻 #Ethereum Update
The price is at $1580; anything below $1700 is already negative. In the short to medium term, I expect the #ETH price to reach $1350. These are suitable levels for first-stage spot buying. I will be making at least 2-3 spot purchases. $ETH
The price is at $1580; anything below $1700 is already negative. In the short to medium term, I expect the #ETH price to reach $1350. These are suitable levels for first-stage spot buying. I will be making at least 2-3 spot purchases. $ETH
🐻 #Bitcoin Update
The price is near the $57850 support. I think we are close to breaking this support now. I think we will see the $51-52K support. #BTC
Suitable levels for 1st stage spot buying. I will make at least 2-3 stage spot purchases. $BTC
The price is near the $57850 support. I think we are close to breaking this support now. I think we will see the $51-52K support. #BTC
Suitable levels for 1st stage spot buying. I will make at least 2-3 stage spot purchases. $BTC
XRP is Losing Market Value
#XRP price maintains its weak outlook. The price curve has been gradually moving downwards in recent weeks. Lower lows were formed, particularly throughout June, and the price ultimately fell to around $1.05. This indicates that buyers are unable to protect the price. If the psychological support of $1 cannot be defended, the XRP price may see sharper declines.
Market Cap is continuously shrinking. The Market Cap curve has steadily decreased from levels above $300 billion to around $105 billion. This shows that the value of XRP in the market is decreasing, new capital inflows remain weak, and existing capital continues to leave the market.
The decline in Market Cap is progressing in line with the price movement. The Taker Buy/Sell Ratio is unable to support the price. This metric is at 0.97, indicating that sellers have a slight advantage. Buyers are showing a tendency to decrease in futures trading. More importantly, even though the ratio occasionally rose above 1 throughout the chart, the price did not keep pace. This suggests that purchases are being met with sales, and buyers are unable to maintain lasting control over the price.
The Ichimoku Cloud is trending downwards, and the price is below this average. The technical outlook indicates that downward pressure continues.
Based on the current data in the chart, both the technical outlook and the on-chain perspective reveal that demand for XRP is currently weak and selling pressure is dominant. Clearly, the decline will continue. $BTC
#XRP price maintains its weak outlook. The price curve has been gradually moving downwards in recent weeks. Lower lows were formed, particularly throughout June, and the price ultimately fell to around $1.05. This indicates that buyers are unable to protect the price. If the psychological support of $1 cannot be defended, the XRP price may see sharper declines.
Market Cap is continuously shrinking. The Market Cap curve has steadily decreased from levels above $300 billion to around $105 billion. This shows that the value of XRP in the market is decreasing, new capital inflows remain weak, and existing capital continues to leave the market.
The decline in Market Cap is progressing in line with the price movement. The Taker Buy/Sell Ratio is unable to support the price. This metric is at 0.97, indicating that sellers have a slight advantage. Buyers are showing a tendency to decrease in futures trading. More importantly, even though the ratio occasionally rose above 1 throughout the chart, the price did not keep pace. This suggests that purchases are being met with sales, and buyers are unable to maintain lasting control over the price.
The Ichimoku Cloud is trending downwards, and the price is below this average. The technical outlook indicates that downward pressure continues.
Based on the current data in the chart, both the technical outlook and the on-chain perspective reveal that demand for XRP is currently weak and selling pressure is dominant. Clearly, the decline will continue. $BTC
Bitcoin on the Defense Line
According to the data in the chart, the current outlook requires caution in the short term. Looking at the past, most of the red dots on the chart have appeared after price peaks or intermediate peaks, followed by accelerated downward movements. This suggests that whales are viewing rallies as selling opportunities.
Institutional netflow is weakening. This strengthens the possibility of #BTC transfers to exchanges and preparations for selling.
OTC buying liquidity is not as strong as before. Recently, buying volumes have decreased significantly. This may mean that strong institutional demand, which would reduce selling pressure, has weakened. In the current picture, a strong new accumulation signal does not yet appear to have formed. Therefore, it may be too early to say that the decline has ended.
In short, whales are taking a selling-heavy approach in #Bitcoin. Institutional net inflows are weakening. Strong buyer support on the OTC side has decreased compared to before. Therefore, the probability of downward pressure continuing in the short term seems high. When this indicator is considered alone, the market is still exhibiting defensive and risk-averse behavior. $BTC
According to the data in the chart, the current outlook requires caution in the short term. Looking at the past, most of the red dots on the chart have appeared after price peaks or intermediate peaks, followed by accelerated downward movements. This suggests that whales are viewing rallies as selling opportunities.
Institutional netflow is weakening. This strengthens the possibility of #BTC transfers to exchanges and preparations for selling.
OTC buying liquidity is not as strong as before. Recently, buying volumes have decreased significantly. This may mean that strong institutional demand, which would reduce selling pressure, has weakened. In the current picture, a strong new accumulation signal does not yet appear to have formed. Therefore, it may be too early to say that the decline has ended.
In short, whales are taking a selling-heavy approach in #Bitcoin. Institutional net inflows are weakening. Strong buyer support on the OTC side has decreased compared to before. Therefore, the probability of downward pressure continuing in the short term seems high. When this indicator is considered alone, the market is still exhibiting defensive and risk-averse behavior. $BTC
Bears Take the Stage in Ethereum
While a Taker Buy/Sell Ratio above 1 seems positive, the price isn't showing the same strength. This indicates that buying in the market isn't pushing the price up, as large sellers are countering incoming purchases. Real money inflows into the spot market remain weak.
Fund Price has been steadily declining since peaking in April. Long appetite in futures markets is decreasing. Leveraged investors are shrinking their positions. The fact that Fund Price and the price are falling together can be considered a signal supporting a downtrend.
Despite the rise in the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio, the price isn't reacting. The current ratio has risen to 1.13. Under normal circumstances, this would be expected to push the price up. However, the price is only showing a limited reaction. This suggests that sell orders are stronger, and whales are using rallies as selling opportunities. This type of divergence is often seen in the continuation of a downtrend rather than an uptrend.
The price is still forming lower peaks. Each reaction remains below the previous peak. Lows are also being pushed down. This structure technically indicates that the downtrend is still being maintained. There doesn't seem to be strong demand on the spot market.
The likelihood of a continued downward trend in #ETH appears higher than the likelihood of a strong and sustained recovery. Especially without an upward reversal in Fund Price and without the price technically breaking the downtrend, current buying risks remaining more of a short-term reaction. A Taker Buy Sell above 1 could be interpreted as a dead cat bounce. #Ethereum $ETH
While a Taker Buy/Sell Ratio above 1 seems positive, the price isn't showing the same strength. This indicates that buying in the market isn't pushing the price up, as large sellers are countering incoming purchases. Real money inflows into the spot market remain weak.
Fund Price has been steadily declining since peaking in April. Long appetite in futures markets is decreasing. Leveraged investors are shrinking their positions. The fact that Fund Price and the price are falling together can be considered a signal supporting a downtrend.
Despite the rise in the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio, the price isn't reacting. The current ratio has risen to 1.13. Under normal circumstances, this would be expected to push the price up. However, the price is only showing a limited reaction. This suggests that sell orders are stronger, and whales are using rallies as selling opportunities. This type of divergence is often seen in the continuation of a downtrend rather than an uptrend.
The price is still forming lower peaks. Each reaction remains below the previous peak. Lows are also being pushed down. This structure technically indicates that the downtrend is still being maintained. There doesn't seem to be strong demand on the spot market.
The likelihood of a continued downward trend in #ETH appears higher than the likelihood of a strong and sustained recovery. Especially without an upward reversal in Fund Price and without the price technically breaking the downtrend, current buying risks remaining more of a short-term reaction. A Taker Buy Sell above 1 could be interpreted as a dead cat bounce. #Ethereum $ETH
🐻I don't think the decline in Bitcoin is over. A rebound up to $72750 is possible. After that, I think the decline will continue.
I made an initial spot purchase. I'm waiting to add more.
However, my opinion will change if there is a weekly close above $72750. Therefore, I will look for a short entry point from the resistance. #Bitcoin #BTC $BTC
I made an initial spot purchase. I'm waiting to add more.
However, my opinion will change if there is a weekly close above $72750. Therefore, I will look for a short entry point from the resistance. #Bitcoin #BTC $BTC
Analysis of Current Miner Costs in the Chart
HUT: $81.0K
RIOT: $78.8K
BITF: 72.9K
WULF: 46.0K
Average Production Cost: Approximately $69.7K
Operational Base Cost: $45.7k
Bitcoin's current price is approximately $64.4k, significantly below the average production cost in the market and the costs of giants like HUT and RIOT. Currently, only WULF appears to be costing less than the BTC price.
In the current situation, the fact that the #Bitcoin price remains below average costs could trigger selling pressure in the market.
Miners have to cover fixed operational expenses such as electricity, equipment depreciation, debt payments, and personnel. When the price falls below the production cost, they start selling not only the BTC they produce daily but also their historical #BTC reserves to maintain cash flow.
The Miner Outflow chart shows that miner outflows to the spot market have remained active recently. This creates an additional supply shock in the market, making it difficult for the price to recover upwards and causing it to face pressure every time it tries to rise.
Miners with costs in the $78k-$81k range cannot produce at a loss for long. If this process continues, they will be forced to shut down old, inefficient equipment. The network difficulty and hashrate will decrease. Historically, this temporary cleanup in hashrate signals a macro bottom formation in the market.
The Operational Floor Cost and the cost of the most efficient miner in the chart act as the ultimate macro support for the price in the worst-case scenario. These phases where the price falls below the average cost indicate a painful consolidation period where the accumulation process begins in the market.
In short, miners are currently experiencing a serious profitability squeeze. Unless the price rises above the $69.7k - $72.9k range and provides relief to miners, miner sales to fund operations will continue to keep selling pressure on the price alive. $BTC
HUT: $81.0K
RIOT: $78.8K
BITF: 72.9K
WULF: 46.0K
Average Production Cost: Approximately $69.7K
Operational Base Cost: $45.7k
Bitcoin's current price is approximately $64.4k, significantly below the average production cost in the market and the costs of giants like HUT and RIOT. Currently, only WULF appears to be costing less than the BTC price.
In the current situation, the fact that the #Bitcoin price remains below average costs could trigger selling pressure in the market.
Miners have to cover fixed operational expenses such as electricity, equipment depreciation, debt payments, and personnel. When the price falls below the production cost, they start selling not only the BTC they produce daily but also their historical #BTC reserves to maintain cash flow.
The Miner Outflow chart shows that miner outflows to the spot market have remained active recently. This creates an additional supply shock in the market, making it difficult for the price to recover upwards and causing it to face pressure every time it tries to rise.
Miners with costs in the $78k-$81k range cannot produce at a loss for long. If this process continues, they will be forced to shut down old, inefficient equipment. The network difficulty and hashrate will decrease. Historically, this temporary cleanup in hashrate signals a macro bottom formation in the market.
The Operational Floor Cost and the cost of the most efficient miner in the chart act as the ultimate macro support for the price in the worst-case scenario. These phases where the price falls below the average cost indicate a painful consolidation period where the accumulation process begins in the market.
In short, miners are currently experiencing a serious profitability squeeze. Unless the price rises above the $69.7k - $72.9k range and provides relief to miners, miner sales to fund operations will continue to keep selling pressure on the price alive. $BTC
The USDT.d chart shows a breakout above the descending channel that formed between February and June. Following this breakout, USDT dominance rose from approximately 7.3% to 9%. This movement indicates a significant shift of capital from the market to stablecoins.
Currently, dominance is at 8.31%, and it is retreating after its recent peak.
Key levels:
Resistance: 8.30% - 8.50% region
Support: 7.85%
Stronger support further down: 7.50% - 7.30%
A decline in USDT dominance suggests that investors are exiting stablecoins and moving towards cryptocurrencies, with increased inflows into Bitcoin and altcoins.
If dominance finds support at 7.85% and then moves back towards the 8.3%-8.5% region, it means investors are starting to move back to cash. Therefore, we should carefully monitor this support level.
Currently, dominance is at 8.31%, and it is retreating after its recent peak.
Key levels:
Resistance: 8.30% - 8.50% region
Support: 7.85%
Stronger support further down: 7.50% - 7.30%
A decline in USDT dominance suggests that investors are exiting stablecoins and moving towards cryptocurrencies, with increased inflows into Bitcoin and altcoins.
If dominance finds support at 7.85% and then moves back towards the 8.3%-8.5% region, it means investors are starting to move back to cash. Therefore, we should carefully monitor this support level.
WILL XRP INVESTORS END THEIR WAITING PERIOD BY BUYING OR SELLING?
First of all, the Exchange Reserve metric shows the total amount of XRP held in Binance wallets. Since Binance is an exchange heavily populated by institutional investors and whales, a decrease in reserves generally indicates that investors are withdrawing their XRP from the exchange and holding it long-term, while an increase in reserves indicates that they are bringing XRP to the exchange for sale.
Binance reserves have been on a downward trend in recent months. Binance reserves have decreased from approximately 2.8 billion XRP to 2.69 billion XRP. This indicates that investors are withdrawing their XRP from the exchange, the desire to sell has decreased, and whales, in particular, are inclined to hold onto it. Therefore, it can be said that selling pressure is lower than it will be in mid-2025.
As reserves fall, so does the price. This suggests that while institutional investors are accumulating, small investors are inclined to sell. This is because liquidations have decreased on both sides recently. So, since both long and short liquidations have been cleared, it means the spot market is primarily causing the price drop.
The MFI is currently around 43. This shows that the price is neither in the oversold nor overbought zone. In other words, there is neither strong fear nor strong greed in the market right now.
If the selling pressure gives way to buying pressure while reserves are falling, an increase could be seen. Looking at this chart, it seems that a large portion of XRP investors are inclined to wait. Therefore, every sell-off is pushing the price down. I think we are currently experiencing a correction of the decline. For the decline to end, the price needs to break above $1.2 in the short term and above $1.62 in the medium-to-long term. We can only see this when buying increases.
$XRP #xrp #Ripple
First of all, the Exchange Reserve metric shows the total amount of XRP held in Binance wallets. Since Binance is an exchange heavily populated by institutional investors and whales, a decrease in reserves generally indicates that investors are withdrawing their XRP from the exchange and holding it long-term, while an increase in reserves indicates that they are bringing XRP to the exchange for sale.
Binance reserves have been on a downward trend in recent months. Binance reserves have decreased from approximately 2.8 billion XRP to 2.69 billion XRP. This indicates that investors are withdrawing their XRP from the exchange, the desire to sell has decreased, and whales, in particular, are inclined to hold onto it. Therefore, it can be said that selling pressure is lower than it will be in mid-2025.
As reserves fall, so does the price. This suggests that while institutional investors are accumulating, small investors are inclined to sell. This is because liquidations have decreased on both sides recently. So, since both long and short liquidations have been cleared, it means the spot market is primarily causing the price drop.
The MFI is currently around 43. This shows that the price is neither in the oversold nor overbought zone. In other words, there is neither strong fear nor strong greed in the market right now.
If the selling pressure gives way to buying pressure while reserves are falling, an increase could be seen. Looking at this chart, it seems that a large portion of XRP investors are inclined to wait. Therefore, every sell-off is pushing the price down. I think we are currently experiencing a correction of the decline. For the decline to end, the price needs to break above $1.2 in the short term and above $1.62 in the medium-to-long term. We can only see this when buying increases.
$XRP #xrp #Ripple
BNB reacted nicely from the $568 support level I previously indicated. A weekly close above $680 is needed for an upward move. During that time, this range could be a trading opportunity. $BNB
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