Pelin Ay
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Bitcoin Investors Want a New Bottom
The Exchange Stablecoins Ratio (ASR) essentially shows the ratio of the amount of stablecoins on exchanges to the Bitcoin reserve. Simply put, a high ratio means there are many stablecoins readily available on Binance, while a low ratio means there are fewer stablecoins and a higher BTC weighting.
Currently, this ratio has fallen to historical lows (~0.5) on the chart. This is a very important signal. Because Binance is an exchange with large investors, this directly reflects the impact of the stablecoin ratio on the markets.
This means that liquidity is weak in the market, and the stablecoin side, i.e., the money ready to buy, is very small. When this ratio drops this low, it means that the money waiting on Binance has decreased, meaning the power to make new purchases is weak. The market is full of crypto internally, but there is no buyer support from outside. The market is fully deployed, and in the past, these situations have generally resulted in a price drop. First, the BTC price hits the bottom, then buyers come in.
In the current situation, internal investors have already taken positions. Stablecoins have largely been converted to crypto. There is very little money waiting in the market. This increases the risk of exit liquidity.
When stablecoins are scarce, there won't be enough buyers to absorb the sell-off. This can make declines sharper and faster.
Looking at the chart, the ratio was high in mid-2024, indicating potential for price increase. Towards 2025, the ratio began to decline, making the price fragile even if it rose. Currently, the price is still high, but the ratio is at its lowest point. This divergence indicates a lack of liquidity to support the price. Therefore, the rise is largely driven by internal capital circulation. There is no interest from new investors. This situation is unsustainable. Resistance breakouts will be fake. Unless this ratio increases, it's not unrealistic to expect a new low. A rally won't happen until new investors say, "Okay, the market has now reached a buying level." $BTC
The Exchange Stablecoins Ratio (ASR) essentially shows the ratio of the amount of stablecoins on exchanges to the Bitcoin reserve. Simply put, a high ratio means there are many stablecoins readily available on Binance, while a low ratio means there are fewer stablecoins and a higher BTC weighting.
Currently, this ratio has fallen to historical lows (~0.5) on the chart. This is a very important signal. Because Binance is an exchange with large investors, this directly reflects the impact of the stablecoin ratio on the markets.
This means that liquidity is weak in the market, and the stablecoin side, i.e., the money ready to buy, is very small. When this ratio drops this low, it means that the money waiting on Binance has decreased, meaning the power to make new purchases is weak. The market is full of crypto internally, but there is no buyer support from outside. The market is fully deployed, and in the past, these situations have generally resulted in a price drop. First, the BTC price hits the bottom, then buyers come in.
In the current situation, internal investors have already taken positions. Stablecoins have largely been converted to crypto. There is very little money waiting in the market. This increases the risk of exit liquidity.
When stablecoins are scarce, there won't be enough buyers to absorb the sell-off. This can make declines sharper and faster.
Looking at the chart, the ratio was high in mid-2024, indicating potential for price increase. Towards 2025, the ratio began to decline, making the price fragile even if it rose. Currently, the price is still high, but the ratio is at its lowest point. This divergence indicates a lack of liquidity to support the price. Therefore, the rise is largely driven by internal capital circulation. There is no interest from new investors. This situation is unsustainable. Resistance breakouts will be fake. Unless this ratio increases, it's not unrealistic to expect a new low. A rally won't happen until new investors say, "Okay, the market has now reached a buying level." $BTC
Is the Bitcoin rally over or continuing?
BTC has been stuck in a resistance zone for a long time, moving within a wedge. Even if the formation creates a bull trap, it will likely lead to a decline. The price is expected to fall to at least the $72K level.
#BTC price will not move above $81500 unless the direction is ⬇️
$BTC
BTC has been stuck in a resistance zone for a long time, moving within a wedge. Even if the formation creates a bull trap, it will likely lead to a decline. The price is expected to fall to at least the $72K level.
#BTC price will not move above $81500 unless the direction is ⬇️
$BTC
After a long downtrend, dominance formed a base in the bottom region and then initiated an upward trend by making rising lows. This indicates that capital is slowly starting to shift back to ETH.
However, there's an important detail in the final section. Price (dominance) is being rejected around 11.5%, initiating a short-term downward correction. This pullback is currently moving directly towards the rising trend line (approximately the 10.7–10.8 band).
▪️ As ETH dominance increases, liquidity in the market shifts to ETH. ▪️ As ETH dominance decreases, liquidity spreads to altcoins.
The current pullback doesn't seem like a trend break; it appears more like a correction following an upward move. Therefore, the key factor is whether this trend line will be maintained.
The impact of this situation on #Ethereum and the overall altcoin market will be directly related to liquidity distribution. While dominance is retreating, altcoins may perform relatively better in the short term. However, if dominance remains in an upward trend as it is now, this strengthening will be temporary rather than permanent. As long as the overall trend in ETH dominance remains upward, market leadership will continue to belong to ETH.
Dominance is still structurally in the process of recovering from its bottom. During this process, it is thought that some divergent coins within the altcoin market will accompany ETH.
In summary, the chart says:
The market is not yet in a completely altcoin-focused phase. Although liquidity flows to altcoins from time to time, the overall structure points to a period where ETH is increasing its weight within the system again. This shows that altcoin performance continues to largely depend on the strength of ETH. $ETH #Ethereum
However, there's an important detail in the final section. Price (dominance) is being rejected around 11.5%, initiating a short-term downward correction. This pullback is currently moving directly towards the rising trend line (approximately the 10.7–10.8 band).
▪️ As ETH dominance increases, liquidity in the market shifts to ETH. ▪️ As ETH dominance decreases, liquidity spreads to altcoins.
The current pullback doesn't seem like a trend break; it appears more like a correction following an upward move. Therefore, the key factor is whether this trend line will be maintained.
The impact of this situation on #Ethereum and the overall altcoin market will be directly related to liquidity distribution. While dominance is retreating, altcoins may perform relatively better in the short term. However, if dominance remains in an upward trend as it is now, this strengthening will be temporary rather than permanent. As long as the overall trend in ETH dominance remains upward, market leadership will continue to belong to ETH.
Dominance is still structurally in the process of recovering from its bottom. During this process, it is thought that some divergent coins within the altcoin market will accompany ETH.
In summary, the chart says:
The market is not yet in a completely altcoin-focused phase. Although liquidity flows to altcoins from time to time, the overall structure points to a period where ETH is increasing its weight within the system again. This shows that altcoin performance continues to largely depend on the strength of ETH. $ETH #Ethereum
Should I buy gold from here?
It should be bought gradually. $4600 was an important support level. Those who missed this support level can divide the amount they will buy from this level into 3 or 4 parts.
I expect the price of gold to first go to $5000 (the area I marked with the yellow box). If there is a drop, it may come from this area. We will re-evaluate when the price reaches $5000. $XAU #GOLD
It should be bought gradually. $4600 was an important support level. Those who missed this support level can divide the amount they will buy from this level into 3 or 4 parts.
I expect the price of gold to first go to $5000 (the area I marked with the yellow box). If there is a drop, it may come from this area. We will re-evaluate when the price reaches $5000. $XAU #GOLD
XRP PRICE WAITING FOR BUYERS TO TAKE ACTION
The chart shows high individual user activity, but such inflows alone cannot drive the price. They generate more volume. Investors transferring 10K – 100K XRP have a neutral effect on the price.
100K+ and 1M+ XRP transfers
increase significantly at certain times. The fact that this is not constant indicates the instability of whales. In other words, there is no stable directional pressure in the market.
There is no clear correlation between price and inflows. When large inflows increase, the price doesn't always fall. When inflows weaken, the price doesn't always rise. This suggests that not all incoming coins are sold, or that there is liquidity in the market to absorb them.
This chart currently shows that there is no selling pressure, liquidity is balanced, and the price is not dominated by inflows. Therefore, the main factor determining the price here is not inflow, but probably the derivatives market and the overall market direction. According to this chart, if spot price breakouts strengthen, the price could rise sharply. $XRP #Ripple
The chart shows high individual user activity, but such inflows alone cannot drive the price. They generate more volume. Investors transferring 10K – 100K XRP have a neutral effect on the price.
100K+ and 1M+ XRP transfers
increase significantly at certain times. The fact that this is not constant indicates the instability of whales. In other words, there is no stable directional pressure in the market.
There is no clear correlation between price and inflows. When large inflows increase, the price doesn't always fall. When inflows weaken, the price doesn't always rise. This suggests that not all incoming coins are sold, or that there is liquidity in the market to absorb them.
This chart currently shows that there is no selling pressure, liquidity is balanced, and the price is not dominated by inflows. Therefore, the main factor determining the price here is not inflow, but probably the derivatives market and the overall market direction. According to this chart, if spot price breakouts strengthen, the price could rise sharply. $XRP #Ripple
Ethereum and Altcoins are Undergoing a Short-Term Uptrend
Negative funding has been dominant for a long time. This means that the short side is crowded, and a general expectation of a decline prevails in the market. However, the noteworthy point is that despite the prolonged negative funding, the price is not completely collapsing; on the contrary, there is a horizontal and gradual recovery.
The Funding EMAs have remained in the negative zone for a long time. In the last section, there is a tendency to approach zero. This indicates that the intensity of shorts has decreased, but there is no clear long dominance yet. In other words, although the price hasn't collapsed, there is no bullish signal. The market wants to fall but can't. Sellers are waiting to catch a peak.
Currently, Funding is slightly negative, around -0.0009. Long pressure has not yet formed, and shorting has not completely ended. However, there is a more balanced and neutral market structure compared to the past. The Binance chart is important here because large-volume futures trading takes place there.
ETH is currently in a structural transformation phase. So either sellers will capitalize on this false rise and start selling at a peak, or sellers will finally hand over the market to buyers, initiating an uptrend. In my opinion, the first possibility is more likely. Because there are still no buyers on the spot market. This reduces the likelihood of a sudden crash for altcoins, but the energy needed for a strong altseason is still lacking. During this period, selected altcoins may find buyers and gain upward momentum.
The market is trying to exit a risk-off phase. Therefore, shorter-term rallies are expected instead of an uptrend. $ETH #Ethereum
Negative funding has been dominant for a long time. This means that the short side is crowded, and a general expectation of a decline prevails in the market. However, the noteworthy point is that despite the prolonged negative funding, the price is not completely collapsing; on the contrary, there is a horizontal and gradual recovery.
The Funding EMAs have remained in the negative zone for a long time. In the last section, there is a tendency to approach zero. This indicates that the intensity of shorts has decreased, but there is no clear long dominance yet. In other words, although the price hasn't collapsed, there is no bullish signal. The market wants to fall but can't. Sellers are waiting to catch a peak.
Currently, Funding is slightly negative, around -0.0009. Long pressure has not yet formed, and shorting has not completely ended. However, there is a more balanced and neutral market structure compared to the past. The Binance chart is important here because large-volume futures trading takes place there.
ETH is currently in a structural transformation phase. So either sellers will capitalize on this false rise and start selling at a peak, or sellers will finally hand over the market to buyers, initiating an uptrend. In my opinion, the first possibility is more likely. Because there are still no buyers on the spot market. This reduces the likelihood of a sudden crash for altcoins, but the energy needed for a strong altseason is still lacking. During this period, selected altcoins may find buyers and gain upward momentum.
The market is trying to exit a risk-off phase. Therefore, shorter-term rallies are expected instead of an uptrend. $ETH #Ethereum
Whales Maintaining Short Positions. A New Bottom May Be Coming in the Short Term.
The unsustainability of recent buying pressure may be the most important point in the chart. Especially from the beginning of 2026, buyer dominance is very strong, but the price isn't rising to the same extent; in fact, we can say it's recovering weakly after a drop. This divergence shows that sellers, who are selling gradually with limit orders at resistance levels, are suppressing the buyers who suddenly appear. In other words, while one group is buying from the market, another is constantly supplying shares from above, saying "okay, take this." While small investors buy with FOMO during every rise, whales use upward movements as liquidity opportunities and sell their Bitcoins to small investors. What many people miss here is that even if buying appears strong on the general all-exchange chart, data from Binance, in particular, often determines the direction. This is because whales and institutional investors predominantly open trades there. Whale movements are most accurately tracked on Binance. We've seen this many times in the past. If the ratio on Binance is inconsistent with other exchanges, the real direction mostly follows Binance.
Currently, the ratio on the chart is around 0.97, which is below the critical threshold. Sellers have started to become aggressive again. Buyers cannot push the price higher. The price seemed to rise but couldn't sustain it. In this situation, short positions are increasing in the futures market, putting pressure on the price. Unless whales start buying strongly, the price will continue to move sideways, waiting for sellers. We may see a new low in the short term. $BTC #bitcoin
The unsustainability of recent buying pressure may be the most important point in the chart. Especially from the beginning of 2026, buyer dominance is very strong, but the price isn't rising to the same extent; in fact, we can say it's recovering weakly after a drop. This divergence shows that sellers, who are selling gradually with limit orders at resistance levels, are suppressing the buyers who suddenly appear. In other words, while one group is buying from the market, another is constantly supplying shares from above, saying "okay, take this." While small investors buy with FOMO during every rise, whales use upward movements as liquidity opportunities and sell their Bitcoins to small investors. What many people miss here is that even if buying appears strong on the general all-exchange chart, data from Binance, in particular, often determines the direction. This is because whales and institutional investors predominantly open trades there. Whale movements are most accurately tracked on Binance. We've seen this many times in the past. If the ratio on Binance is inconsistent with other exchanges, the real direction mostly follows Binance.
Currently, the ratio on the chart is around 0.97, which is below the critical threshold. Sellers have started to become aggressive again. Buyers cannot push the price higher. The price seemed to rise but couldn't sustain it. In this situation, short positions are increasing in the futures market, putting pressure on the price. Unless whales start buying strongly, the price will continue to move sideways, waiting for sellers. We may see a new low in the short term. $BTC #bitcoin
My favorite coin, #Aster, has seen its volume drop incredibly. A 50% drop from its current level wouldn't surprise me. It needs to gather liquidity for a strong price increase. Can whales lend a hand with $ASTER
Whales Preparing for Altcoin Season
The chart shows very strong inflows in mid-March, followed immediately by sharp outflows. Currently, netflow appears slightly positive and more balanced compared to March. This indicates increased liquidity for buyers, as stablecoins are used directly to buy BTC, ETH, and altcoins. Therefore, this inflow represents potential buying power.
If investors are moving money to exchanges instead of banks or cold wallets, they are preparing to buy. This is usually seen in anticipation of buying at the bottom or positioning before expected news. First, whales and institutions send stablecoins to exchanges, then they usually open short positions, and a collapse begins. Then they realize profits and move to spot buying at the bottom. Following whales is always profitable. However, this prediction is only an expectation based on past whale movements. Therefore, we must track inflow and outflow. If, as is currently the case, inflow increases while the price is falling, it can be said that money is coming in for buying at the bottom, and smart money is accumulating. Binance is a hub for institutional and whale trading. Therefore, it's worthwhile to monitor the increase in stablecoin inflows to Binance.
In recent days, the small but consistently positive netflow and the horizontal movement of the EMAs indicate liquidity accumulation. This strengthens the possibility of increased volatility and a bullish fake breakout in the short term.
Stablecoin inflow first enters BTC, then ETH, and finally altcoins. So this could be an early signal of an altcoin season. However, it won't start immediately; it's a process and the earliest stage. It could take months for this season to begin. It would be wise to wait for the altcoin season after a major bottom has been reached. $BTC $ETH #Altcoin
The chart shows very strong inflows in mid-March, followed immediately by sharp outflows. Currently, netflow appears slightly positive and more balanced compared to March. This indicates increased liquidity for buyers, as stablecoins are used directly to buy BTC, ETH, and altcoins. Therefore, this inflow represents potential buying power.
If investors are moving money to exchanges instead of banks or cold wallets, they are preparing to buy. This is usually seen in anticipation of buying at the bottom or positioning before expected news. First, whales and institutions send stablecoins to exchanges, then they usually open short positions, and a collapse begins. Then they realize profits and move to spot buying at the bottom. Following whales is always profitable. However, this prediction is only an expectation based on past whale movements. Therefore, we must track inflow and outflow. If, as is currently the case, inflow increases while the price is falling, it can be said that money is coming in for buying at the bottom, and smart money is accumulating. Binance is a hub for institutional and whale trading. Therefore, it's worthwhile to monitor the increase in stablecoin inflows to Binance.
In recent days, the small but consistently positive netflow and the horizontal movement of the EMAs indicate liquidity accumulation. This strengthens the possibility of increased volatility and a bullish fake breakout in the short term.
Stablecoin inflow first enters BTC, then ETH, and finally altcoins. So this could be an early signal of an altcoin season. However, it won't start immediately; it's a process and the earliest stage. It could take months for this season to begin. It would be wise to wait for the altcoin season after a major bottom has been reached. $BTC $ETH #Altcoin
Investors Expect an Ethereum Crash
The ratio frequently drops below 1 throughout the chart. Sellers are acting more aggressively than buyers in the market order side. However, despite this situation continuing for a long time, the Ethereum price hasn't fully entered a collapse trend. In other words, passive buyers (limit bids) are interestingly holding the market up.
While the price is expected to rise from approximately $2K to $4K in mid-2025, the ratio isn't keeping pace with the steady rise. The rise seems strong, but driven more by liquidity gaps and passive demand than by market buy dominance. Therefore, the rise hasn't been sustainable.
The recent price-ratio divergence proves that purchases are being met with sales. This is especially seen in environments where whales are exiting.
According to the chart, the price doesn't have a structure that will rise without a drop, i.e., without accumulating liquidity. It's very weak, very low volume, and every small rise has a seller. Therefore, it's difficult to think that the ETH price will rise without finding a new low. $ETH #Ethereum
The ratio frequently drops below 1 throughout the chart. Sellers are acting more aggressively than buyers in the market order side. However, despite this situation continuing for a long time, the Ethereum price hasn't fully entered a collapse trend. In other words, passive buyers (limit bids) are interestingly holding the market up.
While the price is expected to rise from approximately $2K to $4K in mid-2025, the ratio isn't keeping pace with the steady rise. The rise seems strong, but driven more by liquidity gaps and passive demand than by market buy dominance. Therefore, the rise hasn't been sustainable.
The recent price-ratio divergence proves that purchases are being met with sales. This is especially seen in environments where whales are exiting.
According to the chart, the price doesn't have a structure that will rise without a drop, i.e., without accumulating liquidity. It's very weak, very low volume, and every small rise has a seller. Therefore, it's difficult to think that the ETH price will rise without finding a new low. $ETH #Ethereum
Sui is holding up well. The accumulation movement that has been going on since February continues. I think this movement will first test the $1-$1.15 range and then end with a pullback to $0.57. What do you think? $SUI
Ethereum Stronger Against Bitcoin
On the Bitcoin side, Netflow is positive,
and the Reserve Ratio also appears to be on an upward trend. This indicates an extraordinary amount of BTC inflow into Binance. This inflow is also quite high relative to the reserve. In other words, there's a significant increase in supply. The increase in supply following the Iran-US ceasefire agreement and the subsequent price rise suggests that the amount of BTC ready to be sold has increased significantly. This means that investors still don't trust the market and are waiting for an uptrend to sell their BTC. This picture is worrying.
On the Ethereum side, unlike Bitcoin, Netflow is slightly negative, and the Reserve Ratio is around 0, indicating weakness. This means there's no significant selling pressure. There's also no strong outflow from Binance. The supply side is close to equilibrium; there's neither significant selling pressure nor a strong demand signal. This means Ethereum may remain stronger against Bitcoin.
If we compare the two graphs:
▪️ Net selling supply is increasing in BTC, while supply in ETH is more neutral.
▪️ Exchange liquidity is increasing in BTC, indicating preparation for selling. Liquidity in ETH is stable, with expectations of more sideways movement.
▪️ Reserve Ratio movement is highly influential in BTC, while it is weak and ineffective in ETH.
Based on this comparison, it appears that Bitcoin is under significant short-term supply pressure, meaning selling pressure will likely dominate the market.
Ethereum and altcoins, on the other hand, lack a clear direction and experience less selling pressure compared to BTC. Therefore, Bitcoin appears to be more affected by selling pressure than altcoins. This indicates that the market is not moving in sync with Bitcoin and altcoins. $BTC $ETH #BitcoinDunyamiz #Ethereum
On the Bitcoin side, Netflow is positive,
and the Reserve Ratio also appears to be on an upward trend. This indicates an extraordinary amount of BTC inflow into Binance. This inflow is also quite high relative to the reserve. In other words, there's a significant increase in supply. The increase in supply following the Iran-US ceasefire agreement and the subsequent price rise suggests that the amount of BTC ready to be sold has increased significantly. This means that investors still don't trust the market and are waiting for an uptrend to sell their BTC. This picture is worrying.
On the Ethereum side, unlike Bitcoin, Netflow is slightly negative, and the Reserve Ratio is around 0, indicating weakness. This means there's no significant selling pressure. There's also no strong outflow from Binance. The supply side is close to equilibrium; there's neither significant selling pressure nor a strong demand signal. This means Ethereum may remain stronger against Bitcoin.
If we compare the two graphs:
▪️ Net selling supply is increasing in BTC, while supply in ETH is more neutral.
▪️ Exchange liquidity is increasing in BTC, indicating preparation for selling. Liquidity in ETH is stable, with expectations of more sideways movement.
▪️ Reserve Ratio movement is highly influential in BTC, while it is weak and ineffective in ETH.
Based on this comparison, it appears that Bitcoin is under significant short-term supply pressure, meaning selling pressure will likely dominate the market.
Ethereum and altcoins, on the other hand, lack a clear direction and experience less selling pressure compared to BTC. Therefore, Bitcoin appears to be more affected by selling pressure than altcoins. This indicates that the market is not moving in sync with Bitcoin and altcoins. $BTC $ETH #BitcoinDunyamiz #Ethereum
Chainlink is officially crawling. It's so stuck in the $8-$9.34 range that it's waiting for news of a move. I think only news of an ETF approval could boost this chart. A drop is necessary for money to flow into the market. $LINK #LINK
The chart shows the USDT Dominance (USDT.D), indicating how much of the money in the market is held in stablecoins. Therefore, it directly helps us gauge risk appetite in the crypto market.
The chart shows a flag pattern after a strong upward move. USDT dominance is currently touching the upper band of the channel, being rejected, and is undergoing a retest. I consider this a pre-rise consolidation. Because the lows aren't breaking aggressively, but at the same time, there's no upward breakout either. This could be a liquidity accumulation. If an upward reversal occurs as shown in the chart, money will return to stablecoins (USDT).
The market is in a decision-making phase, and the consolidation is nearing its end. If USDT dominance rises, we could see money flowing out of the market, i.e., a new downward wave; if it falls, we could see money flowing in and a rise in the crypto market. #dollar $USDT #USDTfree
In your opinion, which direction will the breakout occur?
The chart shows a flag pattern after a strong upward move. USDT dominance is currently touching the upper band of the channel, being rejected, and is undergoing a retest. I consider this a pre-rise consolidation. Because the lows aren't breaking aggressively, but at the same time, there's no upward breakout either. This could be a liquidity accumulation. If an upward reversal occurs as shown in the chart, money will return to stablecoins (USDT).
The market is in a decision-making phase, and the consolidation is nearing its end. If USDT dominance rises, we could see money flowing out of the market, i.e., a new downward wave; if it falls, we could see money flowing in and a rise in the crypto market. #dollar $USDT #USDTfree
In your opinion, which direction will the breakout occur?
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