⚠️ THE 24-MONTH WARNING: Silicon Valley Is Sitting on a $200 Billion Time Bomb — And Everyone’s Pretending It’s Not There
Every single year, Nvidia drops a new chip that instantly turns last year’s hardware into fossil fuel.
But Big Tech keeps acting like these machines will stay valuable for six full years.
That mismatch isn’t a small accounting error —
It’s a $200 billion illusion hiding in plain sight.
What They Don’t Want You to Realize
Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta are depreciating AI servers over 72 months, even though Nvidia’s own CEO openly jokes that anything older than 18 months belongs in a museum.
Amazon quietly tested reducing server life by just 1 year this February.
Result?
A $920 million hit — in one quarter.
One company. One small adjustment. Nearly a billion gone instantly.
Now scale that across the entire AI industry, which spends $200B+ per year on hardware that realistically dies in 24–30 months.
The result?
📉 $150B–$200B in profits that don’t actually exist.
These “profits” will violently unwind the moment companies stop pretending their AI servers live forever.
The Valuation Problem
Palantir trades at 449× earnings.
Nvidia trades at 54× earnings.
These numbers only stand because companies delay recognizing that their hardware is becoming worthless at record speed.
The man who predicted the 2008 crisis just placed a $9.2M bet that this will collapse — and then deregistered his fund so he wouldn’t have to watch the fallout publicly.
The Geopolitical Grenade
90% of advanced chips come from Taiwan.
Wargame probability of disruption in the next 36 months: ~25%.
A blockade doesn’t just stop supply.
It would instantly reveal how fast existing hardware is losing value — triggering massive write-downs across every major tech balance sheet on Earth.
The Moment of Truth
When Blackwell chips flood secondary markets at 50¢ on the dollar in 2026:
