๐Ÿ“Š US JOBS DATA: Why Employment Numbers Move Bitcoin

171,000 people watching #USJobsData. Here's what most don't understand:

Jobs data doesn't move Bitcoin directly. It moves the FED. And the Fed moves Bitcoin.

The transmission mechanism:

โ†’ Strong jobs โ†’ Fed stays hawkish โ†’ Yields rise โ†’ BTC pressure

โ†’ Weak jobs โ†’ Fed turns dovish โ†’ Yields drop โ†’ BTC benefits

My macro correlation engine quantifies this exactly.

The key correlation: -0.55

BTC-TNX at -0.55 (strong negative).

This is the strongest it's been in weeks. Bitcoin is HIGHLY sensitive to rate expectations right now.

Current macro picture (Dec 15):

โ†’ BTC-TNX: -0.55 (strong inverse)

โ†’ BTC-SPY: +0.25 (weak positive)

โ†’ BTC-VIX: -0.23 (weak inverse)

โ†’ BTC-DXY: -0.05 (neutral)

โ†’ Regime: MIXED

โ†’ Sentiment: NEUTRAL

Why MIXED regime matters:

The market has shifted from RISK-ON to MIXED.

No clear directional bias. This means:

Higher sensitivity to macro data

Jobs report could be the catalyst

Volatility likely around the release

How to read the jobs report for BTC:

BULLISH for BTC if:

Jobs come in WEAKER than expected

Unemployment rises

Wage growth slows

โ†’ Fed dovish โ†’ Yields drop โ†’ BTC pumps

BEARISH for BTC if:

Jobs come in STRONGER than expected

Unemployment falls

Wage growth accelerates

โ†’ Fed hawkish โ†’ Yields rise โ†’ BTC dumps

The -0.55 correlation is your playbook.

Don't trade the headline number. Watch TNX reaction.

When yields move, BTC moves opposite at -0.55.

Fear & Greed: 24 (Fear)

Retail is cautious. Market regime is MIXED. This is a wait-and-see environment.

The edge:

In MIXED regimes, macro data has OUTSIZED impact.

The jobs report could break the stalemate. The -0.55 TNX correlation tells you which direction.

Watch yields. Trade the correlation.

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