Fidelity (the $5T giant) just shook crypto world saying our beloved halving cycle (2013→2017→2021 peaks) might be OVER. Instead? 10-YEAR SUPERCYCLE like 2000s commodities boom. But wait... is this real or hype? 🧵 Deep dive 👇

The Cycle That Made Us Rich (But Diminishing Returns)

Remember these monsters?

  • 2013: 22,700% 🔥

  • 2017: 9,879% 💥

  • 2021: 1,614% 📈

  • 2024-25: Just 571% 😅

And volatility? Past cycles = 77-84% bloodbaths. Now? Max 26% dip. Market maturing fast.

Fidelity's Wave Theory (Jurrien Timmer)

BTC in "Wave 5" now - from $16k bottom could hit $151K! Wave 4 was 20x over 153 weeks. Wave 5 still cooking. Support at $80k for HODLers.

WHY the Cycle Breaks? NEW Demand Kings 👑

1. Sovereigns: Trump Bitcoin Reserve (Mar 2025). 20-30 countries next? Hundreds of $BILLIONS buying.

2. Corporates: 100+ companies, 50 hold 1M+ BTC. MSTR alone stacked 257k BTC!

3. ETFs: $7B annual flows. BlackRock IBIT → $100B AUM. 55% hedge funds in crypto.

The DARK Side Nobody Talks About ⚠️

Treasury Trap: Companies issuing shares/debt for BTC = ticking bomb. Stock crashes → forced BTC sales → death spiral. MSTR (3% total supply!) might dump if NAV breaks. Orderbook depth crashed to $14M. YTD: BTC -7%, treasury stocks -43%.

Supercycle DEAD? Analyst Joseph Zammit: Institutions want infrastructure (BUIDL 4.5% yield), NOT BTC moonshots. Macro > halving now. Dec weakness proved it.

2026 Scenarios (My Take)

BASE: Wave 5 → $150k, 30-50% dips only. Fed friendly.

RISK: Treasury cascade → $60-70k shakeout.

MOON: Sovereign FOMO → true supercycle confirmed.

Cycle ending = TRUE. Supercycle? Jury out. Infrastructure won, now price must follow.

Traders: Watch Fed + treasury stocks.

HODLers: $80k floor solid.

What do you think? Cycle dead or just evolving? 👇

#Bitcoin #BTC #Fidelity #Supercycle #CryptoCycle

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