The latest #USNonFarmPayrollReport released on Tuesday, December 16, 2025, has sent a ripple of caution through the global markets. Following a historic data delay caused by the autumn government shutdown, the report provided a double-shot of data for both October and November, revealing a cooling labor market.
Here is the breakdown of the key figures and what they mean for the economy:
📊 The Numbers at a Glance
November NFP: +64,000 (Beating the ~45,000–50,000 forecast, but still showing significant cooling).
October NFP: -105,000 (A sharp contraction primarily driven by federal payroll disruptions and deferred buyouts).
Unemployment Rate: Jumped to 4.6% (Up from 4.4% in September, hitting its highest level since 2021).
Wage Growth: Average hourly earnings rose slightly by 0.1% for the month (3.5% year-over-year).
🔍 Key Takeaways
Government Drag: The federal sector was a major weight on the numbers, losing 162,000 jobs in October alone as deferred resignation programs took effect.
Sector Performance: Healthcare (+46,000) and Construction (+28,000) remain the economy's backbone, while Manufacturing and Transportation continue to shed positions.
The "Under-the-Hood" Weakness: The number of people working part-time for economic reasons surged by over 900,000, signaling that full-time opportunities are becoming harder to secure.
📉 Market Reaction
The markets initially reacted with a "red wave" as the higher unemployment rate spooked investors. However, a midday recovery led by tech giants (Nvidia, Tesla) helped the Nasdaq snap its losing streak, while the S&P 500 and Dow remained slightly lower.
For the Federal Reserve, this data reinforces a dovish tilt. With unemployment now exceeding the Fed's 2025 projections, the pressure to continue interest rate cuts into early 2026 has intensified.
What’s your take? Is this a "soft landing" or the beginning of a more significant stall? ✈️🛑
