📍#BTC Ding Ding Technical Analysis Report (2025/12/17)

【Core Viewpoint】Major cycle structures have collapsed, confirming an "Ugly Bearish" trend. Bulls are defeated; any bounce is just fuel for the bears.

Bitcoin is currently struggling around 86,800, but do not be deceived by short-term consolidation. On the 12H and 4H timeframes, moving averages have already formed death crosses, and MACD/KD indicators are screaming sell signals. This is not a correction; this is a bearish relay with no bottom in sight. Trying to long now is like catching a falling knife. Switch your mindset to "Short on Bounces"—every rally is an opportunity to sell before the next drop.

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📊 Long-Term Trend: Bearish (12H)

Market Interpretation:

Price is struggling weakly below EMA9 and EMA21. The close at 86,827.50 confirms a breakdown of key support. With RSI under 50 (weak zone) and simultaneous dead crosses on KD and MACD, the technicals present a classic "Ugly Short" setup.

【12H Swing Strategy】

• Key Action: Be patient. Wait for a bounce to the resistance zone to deploy shorts.

• Defense/Pivot: 94,070.00 (Bearish thesis invalid only if closed above this level)

🛑 Short Setup:

• Short on Bounce (Limit Order): 90,112.84  94,070.00 (Alloc: 70%)

• Short on Breakdown (Chase): 76,890.00 (Alloc: 30%)

• Take Profit (TP): 63,419.99 (Targeting deep lows)

• Stop Loss (SL): 97,530.07

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📊 Mid-Term Trend: Bearish (4H)

Market Interpretation:

The 4H timeframe is equally weak. ADX > 20 combined with the downtrend indicates strengthening bearish momentum. The upside is severely capped, with heavy resistance forming between 87,000 and 90,000.

【4H Swing Strategy】

• Key Action: Short upon hitting resistance or chase the breakdown.

• Defense/Pivot: 92,648.32

🛑 Short Setup:

• Short on Bounce (Limit Order): 87,101.80  90,112.84 (Alloc: 60%)

• Short on Breakdown (Chase): 85,636.69 (Alloc: 40%)

• Take Profit (TP): 83,101.21

• Stop Loss (SL): 93,799.58

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📊 Short-Term Trend: Consolidation (1H)

Market Interpretation:

The 1H chart is sandwiching the price between EMA9 and EMA21 with conflicting signals. This is likely the calm before the storm or a rest stop on the way down. Do not trade heavily until the direction clears.

【1H Intraday Strategy】

• Key Action: Wait and See. Cash is king.

• Fund Allocation: 80% Cash + 20% Testing positions

🛑 Watch Zone:

• Support: 86,027.62 (Breakdown triggers crash)

• Resistance: 88,937.60

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📝 Summary & Advice

• For Holders: If you are still heavy on longs, use any short-term bounce to cut losses and flee. The long-term target is looking at 63k—do not rely on luck.

• For Non-Holders: Patience is a virtue. Do not rush to buy the dip. Wait for a bounce to ~90k or a breakdown below 76k to short with the trend for the highest win rate.

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