I warned about this yesterday.
There’s now a 99.82% probability the Bank of Japan hikes rates.
Historically, Bitcoin has dropped 20%+ after every rate hike.
But this time, the risk is bigger than BTC.
And it’s not about a tiny 0.25% move.
It’s about what breaks when Japan finally stops pretending rates don’t matter.
What most people are missing 👇
For years, Japan has been the cheapest source of money on Earth.
The play was simple:
→ Borrow yen at ~0%
→ Convert to dollars
→ Buy stocks, bonds, crypto, private credit — everything
Yes, a lot of BTC was bought with borrowed Japanese money.
Now imagine what happens when that money suddenly costs more to maintain.
Exactly.
Why this matters for Bitcoin specifically
During the 2022 Fed hiking cycle:
📉 Bitcoin crashed 67% in months
These selloffs don’t happen slowly.
They happen:
– During illiquid hours
– With forced selling
– With no buyers underneath
BTC is especially vulnerable because:
– It trades 24/7
– It’s highly liquid
– When funds need cash now, they sell BTC
– A stronger yen pressures dollar assets
– Risk gets dumped fast
That’s why BOJ moves don’t cause gentle pullbacks —
they cause violent, fast repricings.
The warning signs are already here
⚠️ Tight 5% price ranges
⚠️ Volatility spikes during Asia hours
⚠️ Sudden selloffs with zero news
If the BOJ hikes and signals more to come, the message is clear:
Cheap global liquidity is ending.
And forced selling is coming.
This doesn’t mean Bitcoin goes to zero.
BTC is more mature than it was in 2022.
But it does mean:
❌ The easy leverage phase is over
❌ Big resets usually start like this
If you’re overleveraged, rethink your strategy — now.
If you’re patient, this is where real opportunities begin.
I’m watching this closely.
You should too.
#USNonFarmPayrollReport #BTCVSGOLD #WriteToEarnUpgrade #CPIWatch #bitcoin
