📉 Is Bitcoin in a Bear Market Zone? (Rules-Based View)
If a “bear market” is defined by: • ≥20% drawdown from ATH
• Price below the 200-day MA
• Confirmed bearish trend strength
Then yes — $BTC is currently in the bear-market area.
Why this qualifies: • ~30% drawdown from ATH (126k → ~88k)
• Price trading below the 200-day MA (~104k)
• Bearish trend strength (ADX elevated, −DI > +DI)
• Technical composite: Sell (~88%)
• Sentiment: Extreme Fear (~20)
⚠️ Key nuance most miss:
Despite the bearish regime, classic final-bottom signals are not fully in place yet:
• Funding rates near neutral, not deeply negative
• Futures basis still in contango with healthy carry
• RSI weak (~42), but not capitulation-level oversold
🧠 Bottom line:
Bitcoin is in a bearish trend regime / bear-market zone, but it has not yet shown the full “forced capitulation” signature that typically marks major cycle bottoms.
