📈 MARKETS ARE PRICING IN A 232.6% CHANCE OF A FED RATE CUT BY SEPTEMBER
That’s not a typo — it means traders expect more than one cut by fall.
🔍 What This Actually Means:
· Implied probability over 100% signals anticipation of multiple rate reductions
· Reflects rising bets on a policy pivot amid cooling inflation and economic data
· Suggests a shift from "if" to "how much and how soon"
⏳ Timeline & Context:
· Key dates ahead: July meeting (potential start), September (follow-up priced in)
· Data dependence remains — but markets are clearly front-running the Fed
· Contrast to early 2025: Sentiment has shifted from patience to pricing in action
📊 Market Impact:
· Bonds: Yield curves steepening on cut expectations
· Equities: Typically supportive for growth & tech stocks
· Dollar: Potential pressure if Fed moves ahead of peers
· Crypto: Historically reacts to liquidity shifts — watch for correlation
🧠 The Takeaway:
When markets price in >100% probability, they’re telling you something big.
This isn’t just hope — it’s positioning for a liquidity shift. Whether the Fed delivers or not, the expectation alone will drive volatility.
#FederalReserve #RateCuts #Markets #Liquidity #Stocks
