Psychological Breakdown:

#Bitcoin has been in a bear market since September, and nothing has changed since then.

I said in September that we would not bottom in 2–3 months, not in 4–5 months, no. It will take at least 12–14 months to fully bottom out, with a price target in the 60k region for $BTC , which is going to happen. As always, people tend to believe that markets will react or move fast, not understanding the importance of liquidity formation and that’s why time matters in such a price movement.

Regarding this, I believe that BTC will see an upside move toward the 97–107k region in the coming weeks. I don’t even believe that any big downside move will happen before February, March 2026. This is why I am saying we will stay in a long sideways range for the next couple of weeks until the final leg down starts. I have been saying this since November, stating that BTC entered a phase of sideways movement, whose entire goal is to create more liquidity on the downside. That’s why it takes time, and this means a couple of months.

It’s hard for many people to understand, as many expect fast moves or moves straight to the target, but that’s not how markets work.

For this reason, I am bullish in the short term and have bought BTC, but my short stays open and is not closed at all. This means the market allows me to operate more flexibly by keeping the short open, which can now act as a perfect hedge, while using capital in reserve to buy more BTC and sell later with a 20% price increase once we reach the target of the 97–107k region. This is the exact plan as of now, and I am expecting a slow rise as well, continued with a lot of manipulation to exhaust as many people as possible.

Imagine the following scenario:

the same repeat of what we saw in the last 6 months, again for another 12 months. How many will be able to buy the bottom? How many will be psychologically able to buy the bottom in a year? How many will be psychologically defeated? And how many will start FOMO after prices reach a new ATH and beyond, missing the entire move after the bottom was seen? These are very important questions that should be answered.

In my opinion, the markets remain in an extremely tight liquidity crisis, as I mentioned and observed already in August, and now the markets seem to have understood that liquidity is indeed extremely low.

We see, on almost all recession or liquidity indicators, the same levels as in 2008 and worse. We have worse liquidity than during the Credit Suisse crisis, and somehow the banks manage to survive. The reason for this survival is the new rule regarding the Standing Repo facility, which no longer limits banks to borrowing a maximum of $500bn per day in total for all banks together. Now it means each bank can borrow up to $240bn per day from the Fed and needs to pay it back 1–2 days later with interest. This change means the Federal Reserve is acting like an always-open emergency cash window for banks so the financial system never runs out of short-term money. Banks are not being given free money, and they are not being paid to borrow. They temporarily hand over very safe assets like US government bonds and receive cash only for one night, and the next day they must give that cash back with interest. Before, the Fed limited how much total cash all banks together could borrow, which risked panic if too many banks needed money at the same time. Now that limit is gone, so any bank with proper collateral will always get the cash it needs. The number showing that a bank could theoretically borrow up to $240bn per day sounds huge, but it is misleading because the money must be returned the next day and cannot be kept or accumulated. This is very important for those who watch the standing repo and understand that the repo market is something like a money-printing machine, this is something only someone uneducated would say. Saying this equals tens of trillions per year is like saying someone earns money by using a credit card every day, which is not true. This does not mean the Fed is printing unlimited money or canceling tariffs or politics; it simply means the Fed wants to prevent sudden freezes in the financial system. The real message is that the system is fragile enough that the Fed wants to remove any chance of a liquidity accident by guaranteeing short-term cash at all times as long as banks provide safe assets.

Now ask yourself again: why all of this? Are we fighting inflation? Are we winning the fight or losing it? The real answer is that we are losing the fight against inflation and debt, and I am expecting a big crisis to happen in 2026, followed by COVID-style money printing in late 2026 and a repeated 2020 scenario. Assets, real estate, gold, silver, Bitcoin everything will increase, and money will keep losing value. That’s the reality, and yet I am saying the printers will turn on once we see the crisis, and it is very close in my opinion.

Enjoy your tea, wait, dont over-trade

Regarding #bitcoin , my position is changed from fully USDT, with shorts averaging an entry around 119K to Fully BTC from 85k and short entry from around 119k average

THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE BUT EDUCATIONAL CONTENT ONLY. ALL WRITTEN HERE IS MY OPINION AND MY OWN TRADING AND INVESTING STRATEGY