The current bull market feels oddly bearish for altcoins because they’re still trapped in a four‑year downtrend that began in January 2022. Alts versus Bitcoin sit at historically deep lows—RSI is now in negative territory, marking the most oversold conditions ever recorded. While Bitcoin has surged 8.5× from $15.4 k to $126 k, altcoins remain near multi‑year bottoms. Two breakout attempts in March 2024 and November 2024 fizzled, and 2025 has been a relentless grind for most projects, highlighted by the October 10 flash crash.
That said, there are signs a shift could be brewing. The RSI is hovering near a bullish crossover—a move that preceded the 2021 altseason. MACD is on the cusp of flipping green after a 43‑month slump (excluding the false signal of March 2024). Historically, altcoins tend to outperform Bitcoin once quantitative tightening eases and liquidity returns. With inflation cooling, rate cuts looming, and the prospect of a pro‑crypto Fed chair in 2026, the macro backdrop is aligning.
If alts finally break out of this multi‑year resistance, the upside could deliver the massive rally we’ve been waiting four years for. That’s why I’m staying fully committed and bullish for Q1‑Q2 2026.
