In recent trading sessions, Bitcoin has shown increasingly volatile price behavior, characterized by sharp intraday swings and hesitant recovery attempts. After a rapid short-term sell-off, BTC managed a modest rebound; however, upside momentum remains fragile and lacks strong conviction.
A growing concern lies in the declining confidence of long-term holders (LTHs)—a group that historically plays a critical role in defining Bitcoin’s broader market cycles. Weakening sentiment among this cohort could significantly challenge any sustainable recovery in price.
Long-Term Holder Profits Continue to Erode
On-chain data reveals that long-term holders have intensified distribution activity over the past several days. The total Bitcoin supply held by LTHs over the last 30 days has fallen to its lowest level in nearly 20 months, matching levels last seen in April 2024. This signals rising distribution pressure and a clear shift toward capital preservation.
The selling behavior suggests that long-term investors are actively reducing exposure to protect remaining unrealized gains. As profit margins compress, defensive psychology takes over, prompting holders to exit positions before profits turn into losses. When supply increases without a corresponding rise in demand, downside pressure on price becomes unavoidable.
Macro on-chain indicators reinforce this bearish undertone. The Long-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (LTH NUPL) has dropped to its lowest point this month, confirming that profitability among long-term investors is deteriorating. At such levels, the market becomes increasingly sensitive to further downside volatility.
Historically, sharp declines in LTH NUPL tend to trigger defensive selling phases. However, once the metric falls deep enough, selling pressure often begins to slow. At these zones, long-term holders typically pause distribution, allowing Bitcoin to stabilize—provided fresh demand enters the market.
Bitcoin Price Awaits Strong Confirmation
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading near $88,500, still capped below the critical $89,000 resistance zone. After briefly breaking below the $86,247 support, BTC rebounded swiftly, indicating that buyers remain active at discounted levels—though overall sentiment remains cautious.
A short-term push toward $90,308 is still technically possible, but nearby resistance may suppress bullish follow-through. With long-term holders continuing to offload supply, Bitcoin is likely to enter a consolidation phase around $88,201, as the market absorbs excess selling pressure.
If long-term holders shift behavior and reduce selling intensity, downside pressure would ease substantially. Under such conditions, Bitcoin could reclaim $90,308 and advance toward the $92,933 target, effectively invalidating the current bearish outlook. A move of this magnitude would signal renewed confidence among core market participants and mark a meaningful shift in market structure.
Final Thoughts
Bitcoin is currently at a critical inflection point. Long-term holder behavior suggests caution, not panic—but until selling pressure subsides or demand strengthens, upside potential remains limited. The coming sessions will be decisive in determining whether BTC stabilizes or extends its corrective phase.
📌 This analysis reflects personal market opinion and is not financial advice.
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